Doooooooom! Subscription numbers, erm, UP
By
Alphane,
Posted on: 2008-08-13 10:39 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
A while ago, I read the book The world's worst warships. A common, almost routine pattern was that poor warships are made when a nation hurriedly tried to meet the rumoured threat of another nation's new super ship -- which in all cases turns out to be not nearly as super as the initial, fearmongering reports assumed it would turn out to be. The first nation thus ends up with a lumbering hulk that's overengineered, overpriced and only fit to meet a rumoured threat that never actually materialised.
CO and DCUO are not here yet. Yes, if either of them launch to great acclaim and huge success, then NCSoft needs to come out with all guns blazing. For now, though, they are only potential threats, somewhere on the horizon. It's impossible to gauge how serious they will turn out to be, or what their actual weaknesses will be. At this time, what NCSoft should be doing is to entrench their position by keeping their current player base happy and trying to attract new players without overextending themselves and getting ready for battle by "clearing the gundeck" -- setting aside funds and resources for battling both the initial media-hype and also for meeting the actual threats that the two other games will turn out to pose, and to take advantage of whatever weaknesses those games will, inevitably, turn out to have.
Because of the latter part, NCSoft should, if anything, play with their cards closer to the chest now than they have in the past. Firing the full broadside now, while the other games have not even been berthed yet, would only serve as saluting the enemy and giving them a chance to ram.
Oh, also: Arrr!
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Arrr!
[/ QUOTE ]Damn you and your Pirates, Svensgaard!
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A while ago, I read the book The world's worst warships. A common, almost routine pattern was that poor warships are made when a nation hurriedly tried to meet the rumoured threat of another nation's new super ship -- which in all cases turns out to be not nearly as super as the initial, fearmongering reports assumed it would turn out to be. The first nation thus ends up with a lumbering hulk that's overengineered, overpriced and only fit to meet a rumoured threat that never actually materialised.
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Yeah the same thing happened in the Cold War between the US and the USSR, especially with aircraft.
The US built prototypes of the beautiful B70 Valkyrie mach 3 bomber (which never went into service), so the USSR poured tons of cash into quickly building a mach 3 interceptor, the MiG25, to counter it. The costly (both to build and operate) MiG25 went into service even though the USAF cancelled their orders for any B70s. But the US were so spooked by spy-sat pics of the MiG25, thinking it to be a new air superiority fighter (and not an interceptor), that they hurriedly built the F15 at huge expense. Neither of those aircraft ever took on the role they were designed for in the Cold War (MiG25 got used more for patrolling and recon, F15 more as a strike fighter) - though the aircraft did clash in anger in the Middle East a few times (Israeli/US F15s usually got the better of Syrian/Iraqi MiG25s).
You have to wonder how much of all that came down to misunderstandings, and how much to intentional leaks. Spooking the other side into expensive decisions - economic warfare - was supposedly the main thing that eventually pushed the USSR into ending the Cold War and pulling down the wall. Though admittedly I think it was mostly the cost of keeping its nukes serviced that the USSR couldn't bear.
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It was assumed that the release of World of Warcraft, Age of Conan and others in that genre would totally destroy Final Fantasy XI.
Funnily enough, it's still there after six years (Although having a strong userbase in Japan helps).
It takes a lot going wrong to kill a MMO stone dead. Fans are fans, CO and DC will not appeal to everyone.
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This is a totally different ballgame. And im not saying that DC will kill this game. I'm saying that if CoH doesnt get its act together (GR seems confident it will) THEN DC WILL kill this game.
I'm getting nervous because, at this moment DC and CO are firing warning shots across the bows and we dont seem to be reacting. And we're making mistakes. (the trial thread.)
So I'm fronting the battle cry on behalf of this game.
Don't get into a flap. It's only my opinion and I'm thick
Arc 56763 Lord Anarchys heaven
2 mission arc. Bring friends cause Lord Anarchy means business...
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So I'm fronting the battle cry on behalf of this game.
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But look what happened at Culloden. The battle cry and huge impressive charge was far too early and look who won...
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This is a totally different ballgame. And im not saying that DC will kill this game. I'm saying that if CoH doesnt get its act together (GR seems confident it will) THEN DC WILL kill this game.
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How is it even remotely different to the likes of WoW and LOTRO taking on FFXI? It's exactly the same, and even with the extreme blip that WoW is, FFXI is still one of the most popular fantasy MMO's on the market. Precisely the same will happen with DCO and CO. In fact, I think those two are more likely to have a higher population of console gamers than PC gamers.
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I'm getting nervous because, at this moment DC and CO are firing warning shots across the bows and we dont seem to be reacting. And we're making mistakes. (the trial thread.)
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A silly attitude IMO. Even if DCO or CO completely swamp the market, CoH won't be going anywhere for a minimum of 18 months. And even if it DOES die, well... All games die eventually. Go play something else and quit getting so het up over a GAME!
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@FloatingFatMan
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
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@SteelRat; @SteelRat2
"Angelina my love, I'm a genius!"
"Of course you are darling, that's why I married you. Physically, you're rather unattractive"
http://faces.cohtitan.com/profile/SteelRat
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THEN DC WILL kill this game.
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Not if it turns out to be carp, which is quite possible. Just look at SWG or AoC.
I am not a comic book fan. I play CoX because I enjoy the gameplay more than the othe MMOs I have tried. As far as I'm conerned, any new MMO is a competetor for CoX, regardless of genre. DC may have rubbish gameplay. It sounds like CO does have rubbish gameplay. On the other had, by all acounts WAR has excellent gameplay, so maybe that is the competetor that NorCal needs to worry about.
I really should do something about this signature.
c'mon folks ... play nice, or the thread gets locked.
Sorry GR. Though I do think it was a valid question. 
@FloatingFatMan
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
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ends up with a lumbering hulk that's overengineered, overpriced and only fit to meet a rumoured threat that never actually materialised.
CO and DCUO are not here yet. Yes, if either of them launch to great acclaim and huge success, then NCSoft needs to come out with all guns blazing. For now, though, they are only potential threats, somewhere on the horizon.
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They are not potential threats. They are going to happen. This games only saving grace is that its CO and DC not, as was originally the case, Marvel and DC.
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It's impossible to gauge how serious they will turn out to be, or what their actual weaknesses will be.
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We cant judge the quality of the games but its very possible to see how much impact the DC game in particulasr will have.
It is a super hero game. It is set in the iconic super hero universe where you can play along Superman and Batman. Think about that. Superman and Batman.
Its like playing a football game with made up teams and then suddenly a bright shiny new ganme comes out where you can play in the prem. along side Ronaldo. (or whoever your fav is.)
If its even half decent it will hit like a tornado.
To that end they have the money, resources and the hindsite of mistakes of games like CoH to potentially create a phenomenal game.
And worse, DC can advertise it, to the perfect audience in their own comics plus they probably have the financial muscle to advertise on TV too. Have I scared you enough?
The good news is that if , if this game raises its game in several ways, it will hold a loyalty factor and have its own usps to bring to the arena and should, overall, be fine.
Additionally, hopefully subs will be up and the game can take the hit that WILL come the month after DC arrives.
But my opinion is that the war starts now, with anticipation, whetting the publics appetite.
its the way people work . If someone thinks DC looks cool they may well hold off buying this one. Im not saying its logical. But people are (or can be) like that.
DC successfully made people drool a few weeks ago.
CO are doing the same right now.
And we should be doing the same.
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Setting ready for battle by "clearing the gundeck" -- setting aside funds and resources for battling both the initial media-hype and also for meeting the actual threats that the two other games will turn out to pose, and to take advantage of whatever weaknesses those games will, inevitably, turn out to have.
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CoH do not have a chance in a one on one battle with DC.
Waiting to react to DC will be the last thing this game ever does.
They have to play to theyre strengths and start now, not then after its too late.
Am I exegarrating the threat?
Not a chance. Dc will wipe us out if this game doesnt utilise its advantage and take preemptive action long before DC or CO enter beta. (Again GR has hinted strongly it will react in time.)
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Because of the latter part, NCSoft should, if anything, play with their cards closer to the chest now than they have in the past. Firing the full broadside now, while the other games have not even been berthed yet, would only serve as saluting the enemy and giving them a chance to ram.
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These games HAVE fired a broadside. I know a lot nore about their plans than I do about COH plans and so do the potential gaming audience out there waiting to spend their money.
Don't get into a flap. It's only my opinion and I'm thick
Arc 56763 Lord Anarchys heaven
2 mission arc. Bring friends cause Lord Anarchy means business...
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A silly attitude IMO. Even if DCO or CO completely swamp the market, CoH won't be going anywhere for a minimum of 18 months. And even if it DOES die, well... All games die eventually. Go play something else and quit getting so het up over a GAME!
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What a strange thing for someone who has ben playing since 05 and has posted on these forums some 14,000 times to say.
Ide class your CoH habits as a hobby rather than a game. Wouldnt you?
And its one youre pretty immersed in.
Don't get into a flap. It's only my opinion and I'm thick
Arc 56763 Lord Anarchys heaven
2 mission arc. Bring friends cause Lord Anarchy means business...
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So I'm fronting the battle cry on behalf of this game.
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I put it to you that the game may not need you to speak on its behalf. I say that not out of spite or malice - you've got a (maybe overly?) keen eye on the PR side of things. But I have to ask - does the infection of multiple threads with apparent doom mongering and persistant demands for advanced information really help the PR process?
Does it?
If you are this concerned (and you may be rightly so) - why not get some grass roots campaigning going on this and other forums? Use these insights to a positive end. Prove that these are not merely impatient demands for information from NC.
Go forth like a herald! Hell, take a silver surfboard with you. 
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What a strange thing for someone who has ben playing since 05 and has posted on these forums some 14,000 times to say.
Ide class your CoH habits as a hobby rather than a game. Wouldnt you?
And its one youre pretty immersed in.
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Actually, I roleplay in CoH far more than I actually PLAY it; and I can and HAVE transferred THAT over to IRC successfully. So whilst it IS a hobby, if it ever went away, I'll still HAVE my hobby.
Again, you are SERIOUSLY overstating the damage that DCUO and CO will do. You're going about them being here now, but they're NOT. Even if they finally release, that's NOT guarantee they'll survive. The first few months of an MMO are crucial to their survival, and there have been plenty who didn't make it out of them.
Plus, we're dealing with Sony Online, a company that managed to totally WRECK the biggest game license imaginable in Star Wars Galaxies, and Cryptic. A company which, whilst DID develop CoH, also has Jack Emmert.
On the other hand, we're also dealing with NCSoft, a very large company which specialises in the MMO market, and have invested a LOT of money in this IP.
CoH isn't going anywhere for a LONG time.
@FloatingFatMan
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
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THEN DC WILL kill this game.
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Not if it turns out to be carp, which is quite possible. Just look at SWG or AoC.
I am not a comic book fan. I play CoX because I enjoy the gameplay more than the othe MMOs I have tried. As far as I'm conerned, any new MMO is a competetor for CoX, regardless of genre. DC may have rubbish gameplay. It sounds like CO does have rubbish gameplay. On the other had, by all acounts WAR has excellent gameplay, so maybe that is the competetor that NorCal needs to worry about.
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I'm with PRAF on this one.
In fact I didn't even consider CO or DC Online when posting my initial concerns about the lack of updates. I'm not too sure CoH has too much to worry from these feature-wise.
In fact after reading preview articles for DC Online I wouldn't be worried about it at all if I was NorCAL, other than it maybe causing a blip in the number of concurrent players for a month or two when its released. It seems pretty rubbish / poor from what I've seen so far with nothing innotive or stand-out.
Personally I just don't like the lull we've got at the moment, it feels like this year has been treading water for the most part so far (at least from this side where we know little to nothing about whats to come).
Personally for me WAR is more likely to steal me a way for a bit. Which may be a good thing in terms of having a little break and coming back whenever i13 and 14 materialise.
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This is a totally different ballgame. And im not saying that DC will kill this game. I'm saying that if CoH doesnt get its act together (GR seems confident it will) THEN DC WILL kill this game.
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Where are you getting that from? In MMO history there's no evidence at all that any big commercial MMOs have ever been killed by other big commercial MMO launches. Like Quin said, it takes a lot to kill an MMO.
I've played tons of different MMOs over the last ten years. Whenever a new overhyped MMO is launched/announced people always proclaim on official forums that their current MMO is doomed. It's happened in EQ, AC, DAoC, FFIX, SWG, EQ2, and even WoW - and I daresay it will happen in AoC and eventually WAR and DCUO too. So forgive me for being rather sceptical of doomsayers because they never have precedence or even trends to back up their claims.
WoW and EQ2 (and CoH for that matter) all came out around a time when the prevailing opinion was that the majority of MMO fans were looking for a new game, but no existing commercial MMOs in the fantasy field (UO, EQ, AC, DAoC, FFIX, L2, etc.) were "killed" or even seemed to suffer that badly in the year following those new launches (some of them even showed increases in subs, as the new MMOs broadened the marketplace and brought in new players who branched out into other MMOs). The main thing WoW really achieved in its first year was causing loads of in-development MMOs to cancel/delay.
Honestly if a 600lb gorilla like WoW failed to kill any of its rivals I find it hard to believe that DCUO will manage to kill anything, even though CoH is the only MMO out now in the same sub-genre.
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I'm getting nervous because, at this moment DC and CO are firing warning shots across the bows and we dont seem to be reacting. And we're making mistakes. (the trial thread.)
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Warning shots? (a tad melodramatic I feel) You mean the same potential feature hype that happens before every MMO launch ever in the history of MMOs? You know, most of those potential features pushed out by the marketing department that Dev teams usually fail to deliver by launch?
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So I'm fronting the battle cry on behalf of this game.
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I don't see why we need anyone to front a battle cry. NCSoft would be rather daft to let player opinions change their PR agenda anyway - it's not like we're qualified or even in full possession of the facts.
Your doomsaying, even done with good intentions, is likely to have more negative effects on the subscriber population than positive effects on the game.
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Personally I just don't like the lull we've got at the moment, it feels like this year has been treading water for the most part so far (at least from this side where we know little to nothing about whats to come).
Personally for me WAR is more likely to steal me a way for a bit. Which may be a good thing in terms of having a little break and coming back whenever i13 and 14 materialise.
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I'm getting the 'teading water' feeling too; but this is my second visit to this game; I played for a year, went and played WoW for a year then came back, it seems a year or so continuous play in any MMO is my limit.
I've been here 16 months this time and for the last 3 I've been getting itchy feet and resisting resubscribing to WoW for a break.
Two things have kept me from doing thet: first, I have a Lotro sub, I can play that for a few days a month as a break (and the game feels so light because I've never really committed to it, I just dip in and out) and second, WAR is about to come out and it looks very much like WoW minus many things that niggled me.
CoH itself has not made me want to stay, nothing that has been announced will get me continuing my sub past October; I hope that when I'm ready to give the game another go it will have a lot more to offer than it does right now.
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They are not potential threats. They are going to happen.
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I find this statement hilarious because of how neatly it furthers Leif's analogy - the rival battleships were going to happen, but when they did it was nowhere near the level they'd been hyped up to. Massive amounts of money were spent on rivalling something that materialised with a mere fraction of its legend intact.
Maybe you should understand what people are saying before trying to counter them.
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They are not potential threats. They are going to happen.
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You cant possibly know that. MMOs get cancelled all the time pre-launch, even within weeks of launch.
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Its like playing a football game with made up teams and then suddenly a bright shiny new ganme comes out where you can play in the prem. along side Ronaldo. (or whoever your fav is.)
If its even half decent it will hit like a tornado.
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And theres the real point. We dont even know if DCUO or CO will be any good. They might not be as much fun to play as CoH.
To take your football game analogy to its logical conclusion, sure EAs FIFA games outsell most of their rivals because they have the FIFA licence and all the proper team/player names and that matters to a lot of the mainstream (or to the parents buying games for their kids...). But that doesnt stop Konamis Pro Evo series being widely acknowledged as a better football game (by magazine/website reviewers and by players on online forums), nor does it stop Pro Evo from selling enough copies to be considered a very popular game and having half a dozen sequels (in the US I understand its up to a dozen sequels numerically as Winning Eleven).
I certainly prefer Pro Evo as a game and buy that in preference to FIFA because I dont really care about the licence - I care about how well the game plays. It will be the same for me with DCUO and CoH - Ill play whichever one I have the most fun with, regardless of the fact Im a fanatical Batman/Nightwing fan. I doubt Im the only one with that viewpoint either.
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And worse, DC can advertise it, to the perfect audience in their own comics plus they probably have the financial muscle to advertise on TV too. Have I scared you enough?
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Not really. WoW advertises on TV too. I think you over-estimate how much SOE will advertise DCUO (for it is mainly their product), or how much importance Time-Warner (DCs owner) will place upon it. I doubt Time-Warners cut of the DCUO pie will be big enough to justify a big (or even any) advertising outlay - even advertising in their own comics/movies costs them space that they could be selling to other advertisers. I bet SOE had to pay DC/T-W for the DC licence and they'll be assuming the risk - DC/T-W will be skimming profits (if any) as licensee and co-investor. DCUO isn't an in-house product for DC/T-W, like CoH is for NC, EQ/EQ2 for SOE, or WoW for ActivisionBlizzard.
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CoH do not have a chance in a one on one battle with DC.
Waiting to react to DC will be the last thing this game ever does.
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Ive heard all the same things before. The Star Wars licence is stronger than the DC one in both the mainstream and, dare I say it, among MMO fans - SOE did the MMO for that too - theres your precedent. Btw SWG didnt kill any MMOs when it launched, not even the sole commercial sci-fi MMO at the time - Anarchy Online - despite that game having a terrible launch and much lower population / market share than CoH.
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Am I exegarrating the threat?
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No. Youre horribly over-exaggerating it.
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It is a super hero game. It is set in the iconic super hero universe where you can play along Superman and Batman. Think about that. Superman and Batman.
Its like playing a football game with made up teams and then suddenly a bright shiny new ganme comes out where you can play in the prem. along side Ronaldo. (or whoever your fav is.)
If its even half decent it will hit like a tornado.
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SWG.
It was just about half decent.
Star Wars has many many more fans than either Batman or Superman (and as for the rest, Green who?).
It flopped worse than FFM when his levitation device was hit by an EMP.
I really should do something about this signature.
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I am not a comic book fan. I play CoX because I enjoy the gameplay more than the othe MMOs I have tried. As far as I'm conerned, any new MMO is a competetor for CoX, regardless of genre. DC may have rubbish gameplay. It sounds like CO does have rubbish gameplay. On the other had, by all acounts WAR has excellent gameplay, so maybe that is the competetor that NorCal needs to worry about.
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I'm with PRAF on this one.
In fact I didn't even consider CO or DC Online when posting my initial concerns about the lack of updates. I'm not too sure CoH has too much to worry from these feature-wise.
In fact after reading preview articles for DC Online I wouldn't be worried about it at all if I was NorCAL, other than it maybe causing a blip in the number of concurrent players for a month or two when its released. It seems pretty rubbish / poor from what I've seen so far with nothing innotive or stand-out.
Personally I just don't like the lull we've got at the moment, it feels like this year has been treading water for the most part so far (at least from this side where we know little to nothing about whats to come).
Personally for me WAR is more likely to steal me a way for a bit. Which may be a good thing in terms of having a little break and coming back whenever i13 and 14 materialise.
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Two things I agree with here. (Um, three actually)
I'm not a big comic book fan either, I'm here because I find the game fun. DC or CO don't interest me in the slightest.
Issue 12 wasn't very big. Issue 11 didn't add much that either. It's been a long time since Issues 9 and 10 hit, and we haven't had much (if any) information about Issue 13, yet.
Now, I understand why they want to hold onto the release of I13 info, it's just that it's already been a long time, and we probably have several months of waiting to go. It all gets a bit disheartening.
I ain't leaving here just yet, but I'm also looking at joining WAR for a bit. Wether I end up staying here or there really depends on how well I13 shapes up compared to WAR.
What I'm trying to say is, this game feels like it has been treading water for a while now, CO and DC aren't the only threats out there (I don't think they're even the biggest threats, atm), and morale around here is starting to decline with the length of wait for the next issue.
Story Arcs:
The business of destruction ID: 80848
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SWG.
It was just about half decent.
Star Wars has many many more fans than either Batman or Superman (and as for the rest, Green who?).
It flopped worse than FFM when his levitation device was hit by an EMP.
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Praf, what do you think would have happened if there was a game based around rhe Star wars universe but not exactly the same? Star battles? And it had a similar theme to star wars. And players played it because it was the nearest thing to Star wars they could get? And it had a sub of about 130,000.
And then someone announced they were bringing out a game of the actual Star Wars license?
And you could fight along side Luke and Hans and face the Darths etc...
And, as a kicker, the game turned out to be good....?
What was the first game called again?
Don't get into a flap. It's only my opinion and I'm thick
Arc 56763 Lord Anarchys heaven
2 mission arc. Bring friends cause Lord Anarchy means business...
Why are you convinced that no one else can hold a valid point of view? and that no one else but you cares about the future of the game?
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SWG.
It was just about half decent.
Star Wars has many many more fans than either Batman or Superman (and as for the rest, Green who?).
It flopped worse than FFM when his levitation device was hit by an EMP.
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Point of order, young padawan:
- SWG was released in 2003. It was a blessed time. But I was playing over high-compression dialup at first. Broadband availability wasn't great and prices were pretty awful (it's cheaper today than it was then.) So the amount of people who could get a decent connection wasn't great.
- Then, just as broadband availability hit properly... it was as if a million voices cried out in terror, and were suddenly nerfed.
The dark times.
The NGE.
It wasn't just the players from before they lost. If you Googled SWG at the time, DOOM posts on websites outnumbered links to the actual site three to one and took all the top slots, and the Star Wars community is full of card-carrying nerds who would have gotten wind of that foul stench as soon as it was brought on board.
Hell, the fact that we're still talking about it now should be a clue.
Is it time for the dance of joy yet?
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It isn't early days anymore though, Steele. DC andCO have both thrown down the first baton. That's why I feel CoH should respond pretty darn quick. I dont think they have to give us specifics. If for example they tell us arch enemies are coming (this i'll bet any money on)they dont have to actually give details about the way theyll impact gameplay.
So they arent really helping the competition by throwing at a few hints.
Dont forget CO comes out in April. DC- who knows? But the betas are way before that.
And I think we out to be way in front for when that happens.
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You do have to bear in mind one thing though - the pressure is as much on DCUO and CO as it is on CoH. DCUO and CO have to throw out all these "promises" and feature announcements to try and attract a potential playerbase (and if past MMOs and Dev teams are anything to go by they won't be able to keep a lot of their "promises" anyway) - NCNC don't have to give away quite so many secrets to simply maintain their playerbase.
CoH has already had a successful launch and had a fairly loyal playerbase for 4 years (i.e. better retention than a lot of MMOs have had). It's not even guaranteed that DCUO and CO will launch, or launch successfully and manage to survive their first year - sure, SOE are established publishers, and Cryptic are fairly established developers (I guess having created and launched one fairly successful MMO they're about as experienced as any other MMO dev team out there, but they don't have multi-MMO operator expertise anymore, like when they were with NC on CoH) - but more MMOs get cancelled or have terrible launches than ones that go on to CoH-level success or beyond.
I know that personally I don't subscribe to games based on future promises anymore - I've been burned by that before - I subscribe if I'm enjoying a game and unsubscribe if I'm not - I can always re-subscribe later if a game improves significantly. I'm sure I'm not alone in that sentiment.