Very interesting experiment. Well done, and thank you for posting.
This contradicts the prevailing wisdom
Be prepared to be told how what you did does not satisfy the criteria.
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After about 48 hours I stopped the scheme.
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Why?
Was it still profitable?
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Be prepared to be told how what you did does not satisfy the criteria.
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I believe it doesn't satisfy the criteria. I remember Smurphy's challenge required a sustained profit by selling above EP. Unfortunately, I think all his challenge-related posts have rolled off the forums, as I cannot find any.
I don't believe any "ebil marketer" would deny that it's possible to cause, or profit from, a 1- or 2-day price spike.
My guess is "Stuff like that gets boring fast. "
Well done, well documented!
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
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My guess is "Stuff like that gets boring fast. "
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I don't want to guess when I can know, especially concerning a crucial little detail that determines whether something has actually been confirmed.
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Well done, well documented!
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Roger that.
OK, I _know_ that stuff like that gets boring fast. I, with some help from my unindicted co-conspirators, at one point controlled the Luck Charm market, trying to drive out profiteers that we, the Luck Charm conspiracy, had inadvertently created.
I flipped 500 LC's a day for a couple weeks. It sucked. Even if I"d been making money instead of burning it, it would have sucked.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
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This contradicts the prevailing wisdom
Be prepared to be told how what you did does not satisfy the criteria.
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Be prepared for AF to claim the prevailing wisdom is what he says it is, and not what it's been explained to be in the past.
With no denegration intended to FashionSense whatever, we have seen this done before. I mention it only to clarify that we did already know you can create waves and profit from them. In fact, we knew if from a very long and technically detailed post by TheGameMaster months and months before the most famous (in my memory) debate around here about equilibrium pricing and whatnot.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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After about 48 hours I stopped the scheme.
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Why?
Was it still profitable?
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Because I was bored.
Most days I don't actually bother playing the market, or playing the GAME for that matter.
Also, continuing would have required deleting 100+ salvage, which offends my sense of money management. I'd rather relist them for a lower price that will clear eventually and make me even more profit.
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This contradicts the prevailing wisdom
Be prepared to be told how what you did does not satisfy the criteria.
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Prevailing wisdom says wasting all your slots and salvage inventory to make 6m inf per day is ridiculous. He just proved that it can be done, which is cool, but he also proved why we don't bother.
BTW, I don't know what the criteria of the challenge were. I haven't been here that long. But I did just win a lowball bid (~5m) for a recipe that sells for 50m-80m crafted. I'd rather use my slots for that.
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With no denegration intended to FashionSense whatever, we have seen this done before. I mention it only to clarify that we did already know you can create waves and profit from them. In fact, we knew if from a very long and technically detailed post by TheGameMaster months and months before the most famous (in my memory) debate around here about equilibrium pricing and whatnot.
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Yes thats why there was that long long debate over weather or not it could be done and why Smurphy kept redefining the terms of his experiment.
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This contradicts the prevailing wisdom
Be prepared to be told how what you did does not satisfy the criteria.
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Prevailing wisdom says wasting all your slots and salvage inventory to make 6m inf per day is ridiculous. He just proved that it can be done, which is cool, but he also proved why we don't bother.
BTW, I don't know what the criteria of the challenge were. I haven't been here that long. But I did just win a lowball bid (~5m) for a recipe that sells for 50m-80m crafted. I'd rather use my slots for that.
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Nobody else knows either. It seems to have a quantum nature that when you try to fix a parameter others shift.
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This contradicts the prevailing wisdom
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Months ago, I posted in this forum and stated on a few occasions, in a few different ways:
1. Yes, this can be done.
2. It requires concerted, ongoing effort and attention.
3. You can't really do anything else while you're doing it.
4. It's very risky. You could easily take a bath.
5. There are other ways to make Inf on the market that involve far less risk, consume less time, and are much more profitable.
And finally, due to points 2 thru 5, these types of manipulations can't possibly be as common as some folks like to think they are.
I don't recall any of the marketeers really challenging me on any of that. Maybe the prevailing wisdom has changed since then, but, as a lot of the people posting now were the same people posting then, I kinda doubt it.
And the (very big) reason why manipulations like this can't be sustained indefinitely, is because someone will eventually come along and undermine it.
Oft times in these past months, that someone has been me. 
The Cape Radio: You're not super until you put on the Cape!
DJ Enigma's Puzzle Factory: Co* Parody Commercials
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1. Yes, this can be done.
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THIS IS WHY I CAN'T AFFORD NICE THINGS!!! 
I wonder if we'd be able to explain these points (takes too long, isn't all that profitable) to a "marketeer-hater" and have it "get through".
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I don't recall any of the marketeers really challenging me on any of that. Maybe the prevailing wisdom has changed since then, but, as a lot of the people posting now were the same people posting then, I kinda doubt it.
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Then we should never hear anything of Smurphy's legendary bet again. Actually the prevailing wisdom has shifted from "You can't do that", to no one would bother. I would put to you that the fact you have undermined them in the past months is proof people are doing it.
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1. Yes, this can be done.
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THIS IS WHY I CAN'T AFFORD NICE THINGS!!!
I wonder if we'd be able to explain these points (takes too long, isn't all that profitable) to a "marketeer-hater" and have it "get through".
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There is the problem with the market forum in a nutshell. Overwhelming defensiveness about how the participants play the game. The demand for party loyalty and to defend the line is so off the scale, it would make democrats blush.
Whats more it gets in the way of rational discussion. The random roll vs direct, the ability to affect prices through manipulation, the role of advance information from closed beta, have all been victims
You can say this is so but not hate the market. You can even say that people who don't like the market have a valid viewpoint without hating the market.
Demonizing people that don't share your views has worked so well. I mean thats why we have merged markets already, a better interface for the market or even just power suppression in the markets.
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1. Yes, this can be done.
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THIS IS WHY I CAN'T AFFORD NICE THINGS!!!
I wonder if we'd be able to explain these points (takes too long, isn't all that profitable) to a "marketeer-hater" and have it "get through".
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Start with something easier and work your way up.
For example, try to get the Flat Earthers to accept the Earth is a sphere.
Then get racists to accept that they are wrong.
Then get that Jack Thompson guy to get a clue.
Then maybe you will be ready for the anti-market crowd.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
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Demonizing people that don't share your views has worked so well.
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You should walk your own talk.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
I believe Smurphy admitted that you could cause a price spike and possibly make money off of it in the short term, but not be able to sustain a profit over a longer period of time, say a month.
I have done this experiment with a mid level common tech salvage. I bought them all, bidding stacks up slowly starting as low as 11 and buying as high as 750 and then listing them all for 1000 and higher and keeping low bids open to suck up any new low fruit. (It's not big money, but I was just trying it out to see if it could be done).
I couldn't keep up. I initially made a small profit but then started filling up with slots that just sat there without moving and I eventually repriced them much lower to get rid of them. I don't remember if I made a slight profit or a slight loss in the end, but it was slight enough to call it even. (about 30,000 one way or the other).
But since it initially worked I tried in on another character with Essence of the Furies. I had noticed the price went down a bit and bought about 100 of them and relisted them a bit under a million. This was a little bit before the ITF hit live. They still haven't sold. Every now and then I sell one but I have 40-50 left. I lost a few million on that deal.
I then decided to earn an "honest" living selling my drops and crafting memorized IOs with whatever salvage I earned from playing and then graduated to buying stacks of popular but common set pieces (doctored wounds, red fortune, thunderstrikes) and crafting those.
Along with the ocassional lucky purple/lotg/respec recipe drop I now have over 1.5 billion on one character, probably another billion scattered amongst a dozen other characters, and several billions worth of stuff in storage for future toons and my SG friends. I have no idea how much additional inf I have on power slots.
Patience and a little knowledge pay big dividends over time.
50s: Inv/SS PB Emp/Dark Grav/FF DM/Regen TA/A Sonic/Elec MA/Regen Fire/Kin Sonic/Rad Ice/Kin Crab Fire/Cold NW Merc/Dark Emp/Sonic Rad/Psy Emp/Ice WP/DB FA/SM
Overlord of Dream Team and Nightmare Squad
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Demonizing people that don't share your views has worked so well.
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You should walk your own talk.
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Sorry Not turning the other cheek is not the same as demonizing people. As it is I have been exceptionally restrained in regard to some of the more colorful posters on this board.
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1. Yes, this can be done.
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THIS IS WHY I CAN'T AFFORD NICE THINGS!!!
I wonder if we'd be able to explain these points (takes too long, isn't all that profitable) to a "marketeer-hater" and have it "get through".
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This is one of the big myths I wanted to debunk in my ill-fated guide. I get sick of seeing this silly example of market manipulation over and over again...In the two weeks I've been on this forum, I must have explained it 3 or 4 times already (not all in this forum, btw).
I've given up on that idea. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. Especially when Rush Limbau...err i mean Another Fan is there telling everyone that we shouldn't be leading them to water cuz only [censored] and democrats do that.
Post deleted by Moderator 08
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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I don't recall any of the marketeers really challenging me on any of that. Maybe the prevailing wisdom has changed since then, but, as a lot of the people posting now were the same people posting then, I kinda doubt it.
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You can absolutely do it over a limited timeframe, under the right circumstances. I did it on a smaller scale with Ancient Bones.
it takes timing, know how and a lot of work, it isn't sustainable over the long term and doesn't deliver a very good return-per-slot on your investment.
Kudos for pulling it off, I know how difficult it is.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
In a bored moment, I decided to take on Smurphy's challenge of making a profit by artificially inflating the price of an item above its Equilibrium Price. I was sure it was possible and know people who have done it, but not in a carefully documented way.
The general approach was that I would buy up the supply of an item and attempt to enforce a higher price by buying up everything that came on the market at low prices. Profit is easy to measure, but the equilibrium price is much more indirect - I believe the simplest indicator that I am selling above the equilibrium price is that I buy significantly more items than I sell and end up with a huge pile of stuff.
I chose hero-side Sapphire as my target, as the supply when I started was pretty low, recent prices were floating in that "less than vendor" to 20k range that salvage tends to hit, and I've seen enough uncommon salvage spikes in the AE mission era to know that the supply is limited.
I started with no Sapphires on hand. There were 91 bids and 92 for sale, last 5: 700, 700, 200, 20001, 20000. The active bids were all for <5k and the lowest ask was 5k. By bidding up to 50k, I got all but 21 of the listed ones. Bids up to 500k took all but the last 13.
I then began listing for 198,000 and posting bids for 50,000. I went through quite a few bid stacks quickly but eventually it settled down. Over the next 20 hours, I left it mostly unattended, so I'm sure there was a fair amount of trading below my sell point after my bids ran out. However, I did manage to sell quite a few.
After 20 hours I was at +2 million (coming back from -9 million to get started), I had about 125 Sapphires, and of the 90 Sapphires listed 75 of them were mine (considering the 13 priced at >500k, that's basically a monopoly). There were very few standing bids around other than mine.
I kept pushing, buying more stacks. I deleted about 50 Sapphires when I ran out of space. For a while there was trading in between my buy and sell points, but it usually dried up and went back into my control.
After about 48 hours I stopped the scheme. The final result was about 150 Sapphires (plus the 50 deleted) and a profit of +6 million purely from manipulation. I took down all my posted items and started relisting at 100k and leaving it for a few days, which eventually cleared and netted me another 10+ million. (I still have 80 or so Sapphires lying around.)
Note that there are things I could have done but didn't:
- I didn't buy from myself on alternate characters to manipulate the history
- I didn't vary my bid/asks to camouflage my position
Overall this was not a particularly efficient use of market slots. Normal flipping would have been much more profitable. However, it was an interesting exercise - I think it shows that if you can find the right target, it IS possible to soak up supply and throw it away to defend an artificially high sell point.