An Update

yeah

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

That's the code-name of the anti-troll plan we're putting together.

Um, weren't you saying that a 500K offer was insulting because the customer base would mean they'd make it back instantly? But there's not enough players to make it financially viable. If you're right here, 500K seems like an overly generous offer.

Though I think you're right that much of the damage has been done. Let's assume a sale was going to happen:

Scenario 1. No shutdown announcement. NCSoft and Paragon make a joint statement that Paragon has been bought out by CompanyX (or Paragon Studios is being spun out on its own). Paragon describes all the wonderful things they plan to do on their own. Big noise, lots of excitement. Highest IP valuation possible for the deal.

Scenario 2. Soon after the shutdown announcement, NCSoft and Paragon make a joint statement that Paragon has been bought out by CompanyX. There will be no shutdown. We'll be working out the details of transition, everyone is happy about the new situation and all/most of the employees will be staying on. IP valuation lower than Scenario 1, but probably not much.

Scenario 3. Just before the shutdown, or just after the shutdown, a sale is announced. Those not yet with new jobs will work for the new organization, we "hope" to get some others back. It will take time to set up the new organization, the servers are still shutting down on schedule and we hope to have them up under new management with a month or two. IP valuation plummets because of the lack of confidence in new staff and the players who have moved on.

Scenario 4. Early in 2013, a sale is announced that the IP has been purchased. A new dev team is being put together and we'll try to have the servers up in a few months. The new company better be really well funded to both promote the recreation, run things as the word gets out, and until/unless a CoH 2 is done it'll never hit the levels prior to the announcement. And the value of the IP will make 500K look as unrealistic as 80M is today, but a percentage of future revenue may still pull in money from it.

Any of these scenarios, even Scenario 4, will benefit NCSoft more than the CoH backup tapes sitting on a shelf in the vault next to the Tabula Rasa and Auto Assault backup tapes, which has a value of 0. And no, NCSoft is not going to be able to make money with it in the future. NCSoft lives and dies on the asian market and CoH just isn't a good fit for it, the value of the brand is negative (those who recognize the name "City of Heroes" knows that NCSoft is the ones who killed the game).

Then I guess COHTitan will be pretty empty once that plan go into effect.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

Believe me or not, but I had lunch with Black Pebble this weekend and he said this definitely was NOT the case. According to him, Paragon was still maintaining a profit while working on both of their non-CoH projects. (Mind you, neither were MMOs, and therefore would not, presumably, require as high a budget as CoH.)

I chose to take him at face value, but you can decide whatever you want with that information.

Originally Posted by Nethergoat it's NEVER too late to pad your /ignore list!

The lack of solid information about what may or may not be going on doesn't really tell us anything one way or another. If real efforts to continue the game are, in fact, being made then those in the know might have to keep the solid facts to themselves for now. It could also all be a load of hooey with the same info or lack thereof. I'm certainly skeptical as to whether such efforts are being made, and if they are I'm also skeptical that they'll come to any sort of fruition.

Mind you, while I'm not one to maintain optimism and hope, and I will freely share my lack thereof, I'm not going to tell others that they shouldn't hope. For some, it's a powerful sustaining force. "One person's trash is another's treasure" is a statement with broad applications.

You've seen A Christmas Story too many times, my friend.

Originally Posted by Nethergoat it's NEVER too late to pad your /ignore list!

But the more people "supposedly" offer and keep offering, it makes it have value.

If no one is offering anything and there is no demand, then yes, the value might be zero or rather zeron in the fact that it's not bringing in any money.

I think NCSoft would be nuts to let that IP go right now for 500K. That is basically gift drop to the buyer. Assuming those numbers about the profits are right, raking in what about 3-6 million a year at time of shutdown. That would mean that even if under the new management with a smaller team and smaller expenses and it rakes in half of the current "said" profits then that would be 1.5 million to 3 million a year. That only takes about one quarter to break even at 1.5 million a year. Or else with the expesnse of rebuilding and stuff, about two quarters at the low end of 1.5 million a year to recoup costs and even less time if it rakes in 3 million a year. 500k offer right now, is very low ball it seems. Maybe after a few months on the shelf, then yeas it would be more reasonable. But most multibillion dollar companies probably wouldnt bother with a 500k offer especially when only person getting the cake and icing relatively risk free is the buyer.

The sad part is that it seems that NCSoft dont want to sell the IP for pennies, and the buyer want to buy the IP for pennies. Or as some sources say, 80 million and NCSoft didnt budge which isnt odd. In 2008-2010 time period I believe, Microsoft offered Mark 15 billion for Facebook and was turned down. Yet, didnt see many people trying to boycott Mark for not taking that offer. In fact after that offer, they stopped acknowleding offers, yet dont see anyone here on their case for that like they are no NCSoft for the same behavior.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

See what I'm getting atis if that information is supposedly suppose to be that secret, then why even mention it, and wondering if it's even legal, if it's illegal to give out any information of what's going on. If no information can be given out, why even bother bringing it up without solid facts? why not just wait until the solid facts can be stated and then state them? It's like bringing up a good resturant they found but then when some inquire about the whereabouts and menu, they say "oh I cant say because the guy that told me where it is at, which I cannot say or what they serve or how good the food is but I heard from a reliable source that cannot be mentioned that they heard from a source that also cannot be named said this resturant exists." Why bring it up then if you cant or dont have details? Once ok, things are going on, but no point in bringing it up again and again and again if there are no new details but the same old I cant say but my reliable source who heard fro ma reliable source who heard from the bum on the corner who's uncle work for this guy that has a reliable source says talks are going on." We already knew that. How about what is becoming of those talks or what happened with the old talks? Each time it's gets fishier and fishier and starting to sound like they are just making stuff up just to be making stuff up just for the hell of it.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

To keep more of the community intact until that can happen?

People are antsy, that much I know. And if there's something I've learned from standing in lines at themepark attractions, or waiting on results from commissions, lots of little updates generally keep people happier than waiting for one big one.

When you compare the experiences of people who are standing motionless in line for an hour, to those who have to wait an hour and a half, but the line moves every minute or so... the second group will feel like they've had to wait less time, because there is more perceived progress.

I'm perfectly willing to believe that he said that. I'm less willing to believe that it's the entirety of the story. For example, I'd guess that this didn't account for expense for servers, bandwidth or support, all of which were actually being paid for by different divisions of NCSoft, but were part of the cost of running CoH.

NCSoft would only be nuts to let that IP go right now for 500K if it believes it'll get more than 500K value from it in the future. (Adjusted for inflation). If NCSoft puts the game on the shelf and never sells, it's worthless. The future income NCSoft gets from it is zero, which makes the present value calculation really simple - zippo. Again, don't spin out any ideas of someday they'll make CoH2, or relaunch CoH, or fund a movie or whatever, it's not in their wheelhouse and even if they try they'll just throw a lot of money away.

If the highest bid they can get now is 500K, it's not going to go up as time passes. Even if, a year down the line, they call the guy who offered 500K and said "We'll take it now" and the guy hems and haws and says "OK, 500K it is" (unlikely) inflation makes that less valuable than 500K now.

And it doesn't matter if they sell the IP for 500K and within a year the guy has made millions. They're still 500K ahead and it's as most ahead as they'll get. Business is about maximizing shareholder value. If NCSoft can maximize their shareholder value by 500K in doing a deal that increases the other guy's shareholder value by ten million, NCSoft has still done a smart deal.

(And if the game is so obviously profitable that anyone could make millions by running it - why the hell did NCSoft want to shut it down. You can't have it both ways, CoH was such a failure that the smart move for NCSoft was to shut it down and deal with all the termination expenses and yet it's such a sure-fire hit for anyone that anything less than a huge offer is ridiculous.)

Except... Mark wasn't in the process of shutting Facebook down and storing it on some backup computer tapes in his safety deposit box, Mark was continuing to improve Facebook and grow it and make it more valuable. Mark believed, rightly, that the present value of the future income from Facebook would exceed 15 million and he was right.

On a shelf, the future value of the CoH IP is zero. Which means an offer of "pennies" is paying over the value of not selling. And there apparently are no better offers or opportunities for the IP lying around.

I guess.

I've been both types of a line and still 1 hour or 1.5 hour whether the line moves or not still feel like 1 hour to 1.5 hours to me. Yet, the problem here is that people moved, but everyone is still standing in the same spot as before. Only thing that has made progress is time.
Updates also usually contain new information. So far there hasnt been any. Just the same old stuff since the first update.

Imagine in game updates were like this. "We have an update we addded villains." Then two weks later they say they have another update and it's "Villains have been added to the game." Then another week later they say they have a new update, "Villians have been added to the game." and etc. I dont think anyone would call that an update but just repeating of the old information.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

500K out of billions are pennies and not everyone bother picking up every single penny on the street they see although it would add value to their pocket.

Then again maybe they are just fine with it being worth zero. They dont seem to be hurting for cash and if no one makes an offer worth doingthe paper work over, then there would be no point.

I might have a car that is sitting outside paid for but dont drive it. Doesnt mean just because someone offer 100 dollars for it and that is 100 dollars that I didnt have, doesnt mean I'm just going to take it. For 100 dollars that car will just sit there then even though that car is not gaining value and probably losing value. If I was hurting for money and had a use for it, then yeah, I might entertain the offer.

15 billion. Did I say million. That was suppose to be 15 billion but yeah I think Facebook is worth a couple of hundred billions now.

and with the profit. I'm not sure if it was profitable or not but one of the dings being used against NCSoft is that the game was profitable and they shut it down so why would they entertain an offer of 500k for a profitable game?

But as you said, sitting the the shelf, the IP is zero, yes if they was intending on selling it. If not, then it might come in handy down the line and by keeping it, they will save millions by not having to recreate everything over again. It's already there.

But if an offer of 500k was actually made, then apparently NCSoft didnt think that offer was worth it either and thus didnt bite. It might be only worth 500k for the buyer or what ever couch change they just happen to have in their pocket, but it seems NCSoft thinks it's worth more than that. Value works in two fold, the value to the buyer, then you have value to the seller. When those number dont meet up, the buyer walks away empty handed while the seller or holder of the property still have their property and loses nothing. Not everyone go around chasing every relative penny that comes across their desk.

But who knows. Maybe NCsoft have future plans for part of or all of the IP maybe not but since they own it, they can do what they wish legally with it. If they want to sit on the IP even when it's worthless to a buyer than that is their choice to make. For all we know, NCSoft might not be able to sell the IP even if they wanted to and cant state the reason why to anyone just as the same reason the people who supposedly offered cant release the deatils of their offer.

If people went by that rule of "oh it's just worthless sitting there, then there would be no yard sells of stuff that been sitting in the attic for years, or cars that is sitting garages with a tarp over it that havent been driven in years and all products that ever been discontinued would still be on the market.

Many auto makes have been discontinued over the years but not many car makers go out and sell the rights to that product when they shelve it. Yet, it's worthless sitting in the vault. Yet it's only "strange" behavior when a gaming company like NCSoft decides to sit on an IP, although it's very common in the buisness world.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

Except this is not the way they think. Remember that there's also the right to make a second game based on the Cryptic engine and IP. Those rights could be valueless, or they could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. NCSoft may not want to sell one without the other, as just selling the existing game could lead to interesting situations down the road (having to compete directly with the buyers, or the buyers trashing the IP so badly that a sequel tanks). NCSoft will have to take all that in consideration even if there are absolutely no plans to make a sequel.

Because of that, if you're bidding for CoH, I suspect you're going to have to be bidding for both the existing game and the rights to the sequel. That's why $500k would never cut it.

I'm almost afraid to post this, since doubt can be a very powerful thing, but....

Could this story of possibly selling after the shutdown just be a move on NCsoft's part to help dispel the huge post-shutdown negative PR apocalypse that they know is coming?

My reasoning is this:
--NCsoft already gave us some BS about "exhausting all (selling) options".
--The shutdown date is a definite "start" time for us to take the gloves off and bring as much PR pain as possible. Hinting at the possibility that the game could only be sold after the shutdown might be an attempt to disorganize our efforts (by causing doubt via making us wonder if we still could save the game) and lighten the ton of bricks we plan on dropping (since some players will still be wary of irritating them to the point where they don't sell).

Thougts?

Please, please, PLEASE pick my reasoning apart and show me that I'm just plain WRONG!
I want CoH to get its wakie and be back up and running!

The major reason for bringing it up would be morale, I imagine. And it's not unusual to be able to mention that things are being done without being able to give details until things are more concrete - particularly if contract negotiations are involved. I'm not saying it's definitely real, just that there's a chance it could be - and if it is and it pans out, good on them. Of course, if it isn't real or it doesn't pan out - that's why I'm not emotionally invested in the outcome.

Actually 'only' 48.5 billion.

Possibly less than zero.

yeah that. 200 billion was the market cap. My error.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

I guess what ever gets people's hopes up.

Originally Posted by mauk2 Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words. "Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

Originally Posted by Paladiamors I love you, I Burnt the Toast!