Play by Play: The Paragon Studios Fantasy Football 2011 Draft!
By
Alpha Wolf,
Posted on: 2011-08-30 24:29 in Forum Games
Giant Monster and Skippy both look about the same at the top to me. Bradford is going to have an amazing year, but so is Stafford. I like the Steelers defense over the Chargers, but Antonio Gates will own the other TEs in points. Pretty darn close to call between the two of them.
I don't understand this.
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OK, before I give you the odds, I'm going to make some quick clarifications.|
Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison
And I think I'll be taking bets on which of the rednames will win the Fantasy League.
Bets will be in amounts of 100m influence, odds to come once I've seen the drafts. |
1. Any bet placed must be in even amounts of 100m influence.
2. I must receive the bet by global email or trade for a bet to be "placed."
3. All bets must be placed by September 22nd.
4. Odds are subject to change while betting is open for future bets, but odds on bets received will not change.
So, here's the odds, based on my analysis of teams:
Skippy Sidekick - 1:1
Alpha Wolf - 3:2
Crosscheck - 3:2
Zwillinger - 3:1
Positron - 4:1
Clockwork O1 - 6:1
Giant Monster - 10:1
Friends of the Studio - 16:1
For those who need the odds explained:
Your bet is placed on a team. Skippy Sidekick is the favorite to win, which means he's going to pay the least on your bet. 1:1 means if you bet one, you win one. On a 100m bet, if Skippy wins, you get 200m back, which is your bet plus the winnings.
Alpha and Crosscheck are each the next in line for favorite. Their odds of 3:2 means that you bet two to win three. If you place a 100m bet on Alpha and he wins, you will be paid 250m, which is 150m winnings on top of the 100m you bet.
Friend of the Studio is the long shot, which means if you bet on him, it will pay the most if he wins. 16:1 means you bet one to win sixteen. If you place a 100m bet on Friend here and he takes the cake, I'll be paying you 1.7 billion influence (bet plus winnings).
Alright, let's have some fun with this!
EDIT at 9:40 EDT, September 13th - Positron's odds changed for all bets placed after this time. Clockwork and Giant Monster's adjusted higher to compensate.
Where to now?
Check out all my guides and fiction pieces on my blog.
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don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
Alpha Wolf's money will be mine.
That is all.
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Shinji, Tenchi, Terry McGinnis as Batman, Superboy from Young Justice (animated, haven't read the comic), Yotsuga Kazuki, and Sahashi Minato.|
Originally Posted by Equation
It's -=*Fantasy*=- Football...
I choose Batman, Galactus, Pinkie Pie, Sakura from Street Fighter, and Teddy Roosevelt. Beat that. |
Which gives me 11 players, and probably enough angst to level a metropolis.
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I, too, am a Lions fan. It's the decades spent suffering that make the good years so sweet. |
Originally Posted by Oldeb
And there are two admitted Lions fans?! I didn't think that happened.
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They will challenge for a playoff spot this year, maybe even for the division title. My prediction is at least nine wins. Feel free to quote me on this later.
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Originally Posted by Kurrent
Giant Monster and Skippy both look about the same at the top to me. Bradford is going to have an amazing year, but so is Stafford. I like the Steelers defense over the Chargers, but Antonio Gates will own the other TEs in points. Pretty darn close to call between the two of them.
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I agree that Bradford is good but...who does he have to throw to?
Stafford...meh...by week 3 or 5 he's injured again.
Redskins are going to win the SuperBowl this year (just like every other year after a lockout
) Yes I'm joking about the last part.....
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Dech's I get how the odds work, but I'm just curious how you got those odds?
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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison
OK, before I give you the odds, I'm going to make some quick clarifications.
1. Any bet placed must be in even amounts of 100m influence. 2. I must receive the bet by global email or trade for a bet to be "placed." 3. All bets must be placed by September 22nd. 4. Odds are subject to change while betting is open for future bets, but odds on bets received will not change. So, here's the odds, based on my analysis of teams: Skippy Sidekick - 1:1 Alpha Wolf - 3:2 Crosscheck - 3:2 Zwillinger - 3:1 Clockwork O1 - 5:1 Positron - 8:1 Giant Monster - 8:1 Friends of the Studio - 16:1 For those who need the odds explained: Your bet is placed on a team. Skippy Sidekick is the favorite to win, which means he's going to pay the least on your bet. 1:1 means if you bet one, you win one. On a 100m bet, if Skippy wins, you get 200m back, which is your bet plus the winnings. Alpha and Crosscheck are each the next in line for favorite. Their odds of 3:2 means that you bet two to win three. If you place a 100m bet on Alpha and he wins, you will be paid 250m, which is 150m winnings on top of the 100m you bet. Friend of the Studio is the long shot, which means if you bet on him, it will pay the most if he wins. 16:1 means you bet one to win sixteen. If you place a 100m bet on Friend here and he takes the cake, I'll be paying you 1.7 billion influence (bet plus winnings). Alright, let's have some fun with this! |
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Sure, the devs are supposed to listen to their customers, mister business 101 out there. And if I decide to start suggesting that the devs change the game from being about superheroes and supervillains to being about clowns that is my right as well, and technically Paragon Studios is supposed to pay attention to me. But I hope strongly that they assume a meth-head somehow managed to hack into my forum account and make paper airplanes out of my posts, because I hope they recognize stupid when they see it. I assume they will recognize futile just as accurately.
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(*gives Alpha Wolf some of Catsi's Cataclysmic Chili so that he'll be repeating all through the long holiday weekend*) |
Originally Posted by Alpha Wolf
I am the defending champ from last year. Hopefully, I can repeat.
-Alpha Wolf |
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First, and this is minor, there is no apostrophe in my name. I don't understand why so many people put it there.|
Originally Posted by MutantX_7
Dech's I get how the odds work, but I'm just curious how you got those odds?
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I got the odds by determining who was most likely to win. I did this by consulting with two of my friends to who are better sports experts than myself. Judging by the draft choices and standard ESPN fantasy rules, we ranked the teams by strength. Skippy Sidekick came out on top, the next two were tied, all the way down to Friend of the Studio, who is at the largest disadvantage in our eyes.
If you're actually asking why betting on certain teams will pay differently, it's so people will be inclined to bet on the long shots. If every team were to pay the same on the bet, then the only people to bet on are the top three, and I'm not likely to be able to pay anyone their winnings. But since Friend of the Stuido pays sixteen times to one, it becomes worth it to place some influence on him for the chance that he puts the right players in, makes a few good trades, or one of his players takes off. Basically, my odds are there to make everyone a fair bet. Skippy is about three times more likely to win than Zwillinger, but Zwillinger pays three times as much if he wins.
Where to now?
Check out all my guides and fiction pieces on my blog.
The MFing Warshade | The Last Rule of Tanking | The Got Dam Mastermind
Everything Dark Armor | The Softcap
don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
Call me weird, or unamerican or whatever (not like I give a damn), but I never "got" the draw of Fantasy Football.
Then again, I'm one of those people who doesn't really "get" the draw of professional sports either. I'll go to games now and again and have a blast. But following teams? Watching it on TV? Checking the papers for game scores? NAHHHHH!
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First, sorry about the apostrophe, I probably did it from seeing you responded too that way.|
Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison
First, and this is minor, there is no apostrophe in my name. I don't understand why so many people put it there.
I got the odds by determining who was most likely to win. I did this by consulting with two of my friends to who are better sports experts than myself. Judging by the draft choices and standard ESPN fantasy rules, we ranked the teams by strength. Skippy Sidekick came out on top, the next two were tied, all the way down to Friend of the Studio, who is at the largest disadvantage in our eyes. If you're actually asking why betting on certain teams will pay differently, it's so people will be inclined to bet on the long shots. If every team were to pay the same on the bet, then the only people to bet on are the top three, and I'm not likely to be able to pay anyone their winnings. But since Friend of the Stuido pays sixteen times to one, it becomes worth it to place some influence on him for the chance that he puts the right players in, makes a few good trades, or one of his players takes off. Basically, my odds are there to make everyone a fair bet. Skippy is about three times more likely to win than Zwillinger, but Zwillinger pays three times as much if he wins. |
I was just curious how the you calculated the odds is all. It's not like you can look in the paper and see what odds are, there had to be a process.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Sure, the devs are supposed to listen to their customers, mister business 101 out there. And if I decide to start suggesting that the devs change the game from being about superheroes and supervillains to being about clowns that is my right as well, and technically Paragon Studios is supposed to pay attention to me. But I hope strongly that they assume a meth-head somehow managed to hack into my forum account and make paper airplanes out of my posts, because I hope they recognize stupid when they see it. I assume they will recognize futile just as accurately.
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I had never been involved with fantasy football myself, until this year, a friend asked me to take the last spot of a 10-man league, so I accepted just to see what its actually like, and so far I've had fun. "Scouting" players, seeing who is good for points vs just good on the field, it adds a very interesting dynamic to the football season.|
Originally Posted by Hyperstrike
Call me weird, or unamerican or whatever (not like I give a damn), but I never "got" the draw of Fantasy Football.
Then again, I'm one of those people who doesn't really "get" the draw of professional sports either. I'll go to games now and again and have a blast. But following teams? Watching it on TV? Checking the papers for game scores? NAHHHHH! |
As far as following sports, I never really started following regularly, until I tore my 2nd ACL and couldn't play anymore, now I love nothing more then coming home from work, popping on a hockey or baseball game (Watching Football is strictly relegated to the bar) and playing some COH. I can totally understand why people lack the desire to watch sports, I however love following them, not sure why, myself, but after playing there are some things that I think I notice (and probably some others as well) that most people don't look for/see.
Active 50s:
Zero Defex: DP/MM//Mace Blaster
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Running my Kin/EA gloriously
Come on I21!!!
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Sure, the devs are supposed to listen to their customers, mister business 101 out there. And if I decide to start suggesting that the devs change the game from being about superheroes and supervillains to being about clowns that is my right as well, and technically Paragon Studios is supposed to pay attention to me. But I hope strongly that they assume a meth-head somehow managed to hack into my forum account and make paper airplanes out of my posts, because I hope they recognize stupid when they see it. I assume they will recognize futile just as accurately.
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So, dumb question, what happens if everyone bets on the long shot and he wins? Are you going to be paying out all of the winners from your personal funds? 
If so, that's cool. Shoot, you could end up making a lot of influence off of it. With those odds, I'm going to be putting some influence on the guy who's going to be taking Alpha Wolf's money.
We've been saving Paragon City for eight and a half years. It's time to do it one more time.
(If you love this game as much as I do, please read that post.)
fun stuff! you guys need to post weekly standings so that those of us who laid down some cash can follow our investment(s). go Posi! go random guy who is buddies with the devs!
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If that's what happens, that's what happens and I end up going bankrupt and pay people for the better part of a few months. I've got some cash reserves and if need be I have some IOs in characters that can be turned into inf rather readily, though I hope it doesn't come to that.|
Originally Posted by TonyV
So, dumb question, what happens if everyone bets on the long shot and he wins? Are you going to be paying out all of the winners from your personal funds?
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The real hope is that the bets are quite evenly spread out and I end up making some influence out of this.
Where to now?
Check out all my guides and fiction pieces on my blog.
The MFing Warshade | The Last Rule of Tanking | The Got Dam Mastermind
Everything Dark Armor | The Softcap
don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
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Bradford threw for 3500 yds last year still learning the system. I totally agree that he doesn't have one single big play receiver, but he's got three or four very acceptable WRs plus a running back and TE that can catch. He's also a quick learner and really seems primed for a great year.|
Originally Posted by Energizing_Ion
I agree that Bradford is good but...who does he have to throw to?
Stafford...meh...by week 3 or 5 he's injured again. Redskins are going to win the SuperBowl this year (just like every other year after a lockout ) Yes I'm joking about the last part..... |
As for Stafford, yeah, injuries are the big unknown for him. They have been for each of his NFL years. I really think that IF he can stay healthy, he's going to have an insane year. Calvin Johnson is one of the three best receivers in the NFL, and adding a running game is only going to help the passing game. His O-Line looks to be improved from the last two years, although they couldn't have gotten much worse.
Romo is the one that I just see as more of the same underachieving that has so far defined his career.
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I pick Chuck Norris. No one else. Just... Chuck Norris.|
Originally Posted by Equation
It's -=*Fantasy*=- Football...
I choose Batman, Galactus, Pinkie Pie, Sakura from Street Fighter, and Teddy Roosevelt. Beat that. |
/thread
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Originally Posted by Kurrent
Bradford threw for 3500 yds last year still learning the system. I totally agree that he doesn't have one single big play receiver, but he's got three or four very acceptable WRs plus a running back and TE that can catch. He's also a quick learner and really seems primed for a great year.
As for Stafford, yeah, injuries are the big unknown for him. They have been for each of his NFL years. I really think that IF he can stay healthy, he's going to have an insane year. Calvin Johnson is one of the three best receivers in the NFL, and adding a running game is only going to help the passing game. His O-Line looks to be improved from the last two years, although they couldn't have gotten much worse. Romo is the one that I just see as more of the same underachieving that has so far defined his career. |
Yeah it'll be interesting for sure.
I actually have Danny Amendola (spelling?) as one of my WRs in one of my Fantasy leagues...I remember him getting some decent points at the end of last year. Hopefully it continues for him/Bradford
Leader of The LEGION/Fallen LEGION on the Liberty server!
SSBB FC: 2062-8881-3944
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Seems you guys have some strong opinions... why not put some influence down on who's going to win? The odds are almost too good... 
Where to now?
Check out all my guides and fiction pieces on my blog.
The MFing Warshade | The Last Rule of Tanking | The Got Dam Mastermind
Everything Dark Armor | The Softcap
don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison
Seems you guys have some strong opinions... why not put some influence down on who's going to win? The odds are almost too good...
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Meh sorry don't want to 'waste' 100m...don't have that much money lying around
Leader of The LEGION/Fallen LEGION on the Liberty server!
SSBB FC: 2062-8881-3944
MKW FC: 4167-4891-5991
ESPN was kind enough to project points for the first week's games for us... so here are what the "experts" think our teams will do.
Code:
(Teams on the same line are playing against each other that week. No ties are possible, home team wins).
GAME LINES AWAY TEAM PROJECTED PTS HOME TEAM PROJECTED PTS Positron 126 Crosscheck 116 Giant Monster 138 Friend of Studio 134 Alpha Wolf 112 Clockwork01 110 Skippy Sidekick 127 Zwillinger 117
Positron
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Did Clockwork O1 pick up a new QB since Manning is out for awhile.
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Thanks for the update. The only predicted upset (according to my odds), then, is your matchup, Posi.|
Originally Posted by Positron
ESPN was kind enough to project points for the first week's games for us... so here are what the "experts" think our teams will do.
(Teams on the same line are playing against each other that week. No ties are possible, home team wins). |
I know I put you down on the ranking, but you've got the most bets so far. Posi the dark horse? Who knows?
Bets are still open for the next two weeks, guys. Get in on the fun.
Where to now?
Check out all my guides and fiction pieces on my blog.
The MFing Warshade | The Last Rule of Tanking | The Got Dam Mastermind
Everything Dark Armor | The Softcap
don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
Giant Monster looks like they're betting heavily on McCoy and the Steeler's D, not sure that's going to be enough though. I think Alpha Wolf has a good shot at a repeat. Clockwork 01 looks good but I think he's going to have injury problems with his team.
And there are two admitted Lions fans?! I didn't think that happened.
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