The proposed Experiment


ArcticFahx

 

Posted

Now in the Two handed weapons thread I pointed out that last year, the game probably cost me in the region of 50 whole English pounds ontop of my subscription thanks to Going Rogue and the booster packs.

Now my proposed Experiment for when Freedom comes out is this (if I haven't buggered off to the sequel to game that has the name rhyming with Build Bores, which is looking damn tempting at the moment, not because of Freedom but because the game itself looks damn tempting).

1) I will Purchase £50 of points right off the bat when its released, no more, no less, however I will be seeing the inclusion of the 400 point stipend that VIPs get per month.

2) These points will be spent on everything except vet temp powers (which you'll use the seperate reward points for) and time limited temp powers (ones with x number of charges etc which just seem like a waste), these will be spent purely on things that would have either come in a boxed expansion or a booster.

The point of this experiment is primarily just to answer the question:

"Is the game going to cost me more than it use to?"

From the moment Freedom is released until exactly a year after I will have to run this experiment. If the year comes to a close and I still have points remaining from that initial purchase, the answer is No, it has not cost me anymore than it did the previous year.

However if, at any point, I run out of points then the conclusion is obviously the opposite, yes the game has cost me more than it did during a year when a full boxed expansion was released.


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Posted

That's a good experiment idea. Make sure to keep us posted as you go, too.


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Originally Posted by Back Alley Brawler
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Posted

With apologies to Gabe and Tycho:


 

Posted

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_MechanoEU View Post
From the moment Freedom is released until exactly a year after I will have to run this experiment. If the year comes to a close and I still have points remaining from that initial purchase, the answer is No, it has not cost me anymore than it did the previous year.

However if, at any point, I run out of points then the conclusion is obviously the opposite, yes the game has cost me more than it did during a year when a full boxed expansion was released.
I'll be incredibly surprised if they don't put out more things to buy in the next year then they have in the past. If they don't they may not understand the f2p business model very well.

The big question for me over the year following Freedom is if I maintain my VIP status will I get more content than I used to, or less? At the moment they're promising us that we'll be getting more, and many people are saying they expect less. Personally I'm being somewhat optimistic and hoping for more.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliin View Post
I'll be incredibly surprised if they don't put out more things to buy in the next year then they have in the past.
They've already said that they have "hundreds" of items ready for the store


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Posted

I played a game with a rather similar business model a while back. VIP players got access to tons of stuff, extra character slots, special points to buy things with, all that good stuff. Premium players were those who had bought some things and got some extra bonuses. Free players got an extended free trial. The first month that I played the game, I spent close to 100$ on random stuff that I felt like I needed to enhance my playing experience. Then I realized that I wouldn't have needed to spend that money at all if I had just subscribed. So I signed up for a subscription and enjoyed playing the game without spending a dime for the next three months. 100$ in the first month. 45$ for the next three months total. Pretty sure things are going to be the same here. Given this type of business model, I'm pretty sure subscribing/being a VIP is going to be worth it.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_MechanoEU View Post
However if, at any point, I run out of points then the conclusion is obviously the opposite, yes the game has cost me more than it did during a year when a full boxed expansion was released.
I think this is predicated on the assumption that they will release exactly the same amount of "durable" items in the first year after Freedom launches as they did in the past year.

Say that in your calibration period, you bought N packs (where N is all of them, I suppose) and spent £50 on them.

If, in the first year after Freedom launches, they release a sum of goodies (costume pieces, emotes, prestige powers, etc) into the store that is equivalent to N+1 packs, and you come up £5 worth of points short of buying everything, is it really costing you more in proportion to what you're getting?

Conversely, if they only stock N-1 packs' worth of stuff in the store, and you exactly use up all your points in the store, you're paying an equal amount for less.

Sure, in absolute terms, to buy N+1 stuff, you'd be spending more, or buying N-1 stuff for the same price. If that's what you want to demonstrate, that's fine--your experiment will accomplish that. I'm not sure it's really a valid comparison, though.


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Posted

Keep in mind that this was in a year with a boxed expansion so hence the inflated price already, I'm also being rather generous as there were probably only 2 booster packs released last year (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), So 25 for Going Rogue, an additional 5 for the Going Rogue bonus back (Alpha and omega costumes etc.) and an additional 10 for the booster packs only comes to £40.

So I'm giving myself a little over that, I very much doubt they're releasing a boxed expansion (which was 2 years in the making)+ Booster packs + normal issue updates level worth of stuff within a year of Freedoms release.

Hmm still a point taken..

I so it comes down to value for money, if I've spent £50 and got not much to show for it beyond costumes and 2 Powersets, that would be a poor return on the initial investment and a sign that perhaps Freedom doesn't offer decent value for money.

However if my £50 has bought me 5+ new powersets (which would have been an unprecedented level of powersets released even for a year with a boxed expansion) and a whole heap of costumes (talking atleast 3 boosters worth here if not more) then yes, Freedom is value for money in that regard.


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Posted

@OP: brilliant idea, mate. I can't wait to see the results.

@GG:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden Girl View Post
They've already said that they have "hundreds" of items ready for the store
Hundreds of new items? Or are a lot of these things like Greek letters and such?

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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden Girl View Post
They've already said that they have "hundreds" of items ready for the store
How many of those "hundreds" are made up of the individual 60+ costume pieces from the boosters?

... I just GGed GG, didn't I?


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_MechanoEU View Post
I'm also being rather generous as there were probably only 2 booster packs released last year (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong)
In the last 12 months, there were at least 4... 5 if you count the "Going Rogue Complete Collection Item Pack."

Party Pack (emotes only)
Origins Pack (new cape + 2 auras themed around each origin)
Animal Pack
Steampunk Pack

Also, depending on when you want to start that 12 month period, the Mutant Super Booster released in June 2010.


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Posted

Ah...that's probably what I'm forgetting, considering I didn't buy the Party pack (because it's terrible) and I managed to snag both the Origins Pack and Animal Pack for free (yay contests), the only one I paid for were the Mutant and Steampunk in that period.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_MechanoEU View Post
Ah...that's probably what I'm forgetting, considering I didn't buy the Party pack (because it's terrible) and I managed to snag both the Origins Pack and Animal Pack for free (yay contests), the only one I paid for were the Mutant and Steampunk in that period.
I think that shows a flaw in your experiment: value for money isn't about how much is in the store, it's about whether or not you place a value on something equal to the value of your money.

Will you buy the components of the Party Pack when they become purchasable with points? Your experiment proposes buying all non-consumables, after all. If you won't, why not? What if a new set of social emotes comes out and seems similarly worthless to you? Do you buy it for the sake of the experiment? If you don't, then someone might question why you bought X but not Y when they place more value on Y than X.

I think there will be a large amount of content available with the hope that everyone will buy some things, and that VIPs will be able to use their points on the things they want most (but still have to buy points if they want moar nao). There's no easy way to factor in whether or not a player values a particular item, but that's the kind of player the new system will favor by letting players cherry-pick the parts they want and ignoring the rest until they have a use for it, or until the next billing cycle gives them more points.

By the way, a timeline of all packs except GvE (the only item pack available prior to 2008):

Feb 2008 to Aug 2009: Cyborg, Magic, Science, Wedding*, Mac [Pack] (6 gbp each, according to the wiki) = 30 gbp
* Wedding Pack was in February, everything else (24 gbp worth) was August to August.

Aug 2009 to Aug 2010: Science, Martial Arts, Mutant (6 each) = 18 gbp
I don't know what GR's cost is in gbp, but expansions don't come out often. It also came with a lot of content that can't be compared with costume/emote packs. If you go by just the costume/emotes/[inherent]power, then the GR item pack (not necessary if you bought a physical GR box; not sure about online order?) is 5 gbp, bringing the year's total up to 23 gbp.

Aug 2010 to present: Party (5) + Origins, Animal and Steampunk (6 each) = 23 gbp


 

Posted

Hmm good point.

I mean now they've split up the boosters down into Costumes, normal emotes, costume change emotes and temp powers as seperate items.

The only reason I get the emotes is because they're already included in the pack, I don't usually consider them worthwhile to purchase, like the Party pack I think was a terrible idea and thus didn't purchase it.

Hmm things to consider.


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Posted

I think the correct way to do it is this:

Make an exhaustive list of every new thing you got last year: How many missions, costume pieces, powersets etc... Also calculate how much you spent on the game.

Then in the next year, try to duplicate that list as closely as possible and see how much money you have spent. Another thing you will find is how long it takes you to get the exact same amount of stuff.

EDIT:

Really, this should be repeated over another year too.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by That_Ninja View Post
Now do a quickly and messily done edit of their Hellgate: London strip.


 

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliin View Post
I'll be incredibly surprised if they don't put out more things to buy in the next year then they have in the past.
Then prepared to be surprised. Where, precisely, do you think the extra development muscle is going to come from? The studio wasn't doing a mass hiring drive and they haven't talked about expanding their staff. Sure, you'll see a large influx of "stuff" at Freedom launch, which consists of things they already have ready but are holding back so they can sell them, but once that's done, how exactly do you expect the team to make more stuff?

I honestly don't get how people expect the studio to suddenly turn lead into gold and produce more things faster. Are we assuming they're going to get a lot more money? Even ignoring the dubious nature of that fact, between spite cancellations and subscribers going Premium, just throwing money at people doesn't get them to work faster. Are we assuming half the development team was getting paid half salary to play Pong during work hours but now they'll be paid more to do actual work? Where is this new content going to come from?

I can bet you dollars to doughnuts that the game will cost us - the VIP customers - more than it does now, and I wager that won't be by a small margin. There are already people in suggestions telling me how allowing someone to drop $1000 into the game all at once to buy a whole bunch of purples is a good business model, so there's a chance that the game will both cost more AND make VIPs feel like second-rate citizens if they don't pay a lot more.

We don't have much information, granted, but if this comes down to faith in the development team, then they ran out of credit for that with me. I'll believe the market spin when I see it with my own eyes. And when I end up paying more money for stuff I should have been getting for free, I'll wish I had been wrong.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow View Post
Then prepared to be surprised. Where, precisely, do you think the extra development muscle is going to come from?
No idea.

However, they have said that there will still be free issues. They have also said that there will be monthly story arch (two per month, one hero, one villain), which is about roughly half the number that were in Praetoria. each year. and they are mentioned as being distinct from free issues. Thats all included under the subscription. As is at least one new zone.

Plus, they say they are working on lots of new powersets and lots of costume pieces.

So, if I believe what they say (as in that they aren't out and out lying), then I believe that there will be lots of content to come (including a substantial amount that will be included in the subscription price, which isn't changing)

So, maybe they discovered the secrets of alchemy. Or maybe they are using slave labour. Or maybe they made a deal with the devil.


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Posted

We've been told for a while now that SexyJay has been really busy, but not seen that many costumes to show for it. I'm of the mind set that they've had him working away on content for inclusion in the store, in addition to the pieces seen on new enemy groups. Depending on how much they have stored (in addition to putting the currently available pieces into the store from all the booster packs and such) it remains to be seen if what they have can cover up to their new pieces made.

They've also mentioned that the problem with booster packs is that they might come up with a neat idea, but have no pack to put it in, and have people expecting packs to come with emotes, auras, costume change emotes, a power and the pieces. With this new system it sounds like they'll be able to release themed stuff without the other stuff, and release individual bits (such as for people who want the super tailor access to change body types from the science pack)

I'll personally have to see what kind of costs there are, and may just decide to chuck an extra few pounds at the game every month. Or use some overtime payment to get a chunk of points (which also reward... Reward Tokens from the Paragon Reward system IIRC.)


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow View Post
Are we assuming half the development team was getting paid half salary to play Pong during work hours but now they'll be paid more to do actual work? Where is this new content going to come from?
I think, Sam, that you're failing to take Going Rogue into account. It was a much larger project than a booster pack and there WAS a fair amount of growth in the company staff before and during its development cycle. Granted, there was also some shrinkage afterwards (BaBs, for one) but not really all that much that we heard about. Matt says they started work on Freedom a year ago, which was roughly when they would have done some paring back of the extra manpower now that GR was out the door and stable.

Given that scenario, there was no need to go on a hiring spree because they already had all of the "extra" manpower available: That is, all of the staff that they normally would have released as a consequence of going back to the routine of releasing small issues every few months.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zortel View Post
We've been told for a while now that SexyJay has been really busy, but not seen that many costumes to show for it. I'm of the mind set that they've had him working away on content for inclusion in the store, in addition to the pieces seen on new enemy groups. Depending on how much they have stored (in addition to putting the currently available pieces into the store from all the booster packs and such) it remains to be seen if what they have can cover up to their new pieces made.
Banking on presenting us with content they've prepared earlier strikes me as a pyramid scheme, in the sense that this won't last. Yes, you can launch an enormous amount of content once, or break it up into several smaller chunks, but sooner or later that will run out. And then what? What happens when the initial content package runs out? Do we go back to arguing among ourselves what's worth the development resources and why power customization is on the backburner?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SlickRiptide View Post
I think, Sam, that you're failing to take Going Rogue into account. It was a much larger project than a booster pack and there WAS a fair amount of growth in the company staff before and during its development cycle. Granted, there was also some shrinkage afterwards (BaBs, for one) but not really all that much that we heard about. Matt says they started work on Freedom a year ago, which was roughly when they would have done some paring back of the extra manpower now that GR was out the door and stable.
Here's my concern - it's been almost a year, and they haven't managed to even get done with Going Rogue, a process which for previous expansions took an Issue at most. Now I'm being asked to believe that not only will they be able to finish that, but they'll also be able to launch full Issues as opposed to the "frugal" ones we've been getting, but also lots of other cool stuff on top of that, and a lot of it included in my VIP subscription... And I'm not supposed to be suspicious of that?

Let me just say that I've seen this studio make some pretty bold promises and use terms like "there's never been a better time" and "we're all really excited" in the past, and I've been sorely disappointed plenty of times. Every time they finish something big, we players pat each other on the back and say "Well, they're done with that! Maybe now they'll be able to give us more stuff and maybe even what I want!" And it never happens.

I hope you're right. I hope they do magic up another half a game development studio and make up for lost time, crank out lots of cool content and give a lot of it to me for the price of my subscription. I want to think that, but I just know we won't see much new stuff beyond the initial release, and a lot of it I'll end up having to spend a lot more for than I used to.

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The original post makes a good point. He paid a subscription and bought a LOT of stuff. If even that extraordinary spending can't keep us in the green, then something's seriously wrong with the model. Keep in mind the experiment isn't about what your subscription buys you. It's about what your subscription + GR + a couple of boosters buy you. 50 British Pounds is a LOT of money.


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Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
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Posted

A lot of this is going to come down to "wait and see". You're entitled to your suspicion. I've been just a little surprised at how positively the forum community is taking the news, but certainly there is always cause for concern in a transition like this.

I hate to drag out an over-used term like "agile" to apply to this, but I think it does apply here. This strike team approach means that the focus won't be so much on "Issue XX" or "Booster Pack SuperStuff". Instead, it will be on smaller, highly focused end-products that will stand alone or in small packages. One benefit is that it will allow for faster distribution of the new content and less reliance on completing an entire package of goods before announcing and selling something.

There's plenty of room for things to go sour, but it's too soon right now to do more than speculate and hope for a successful transition for everyone; players and developers.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_MechanoEU View Post
Ah...that's probably what I'm forgetting, considering I didn't buy the Party pack (because it's terrible) and I managed to snag both the Origins Pack and Animal Pack for free (yay contests), the only one I paid for were the Mutant and Steampunk in that period.
GR was around 30 dollars wasn't it? Maybe a bit more. I don't recall it being 25 dollars right off the bat. But going with 30 dollars...

30 + 4 boosters packs (you were okay with entering contests to get them)...so 70 dollars.

Maybe 80 if you want to include the Origin Pack, even if you didn't buy it. If you don't spend all the points, then you obviously save them for the next year and allis well. If you spend them all and still want more, then you know you're paying more than the previous year in extra goodies.

Though that said, I think the things like the Enhancement Unslotter would have been a paid for feature even if they didn't go F2P.

Also, take into account they're giving a free server transfer a month to VIPs, so that's a 10 dollar value (or at least in their eyes I would think they see it that way). Seeing as how I've spent over 50 dollars at least (and I suspect at least a 100) in server transfere costs...this part will actually save me money! :O


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