Lady Grey TF is the best Shard TF!!!
By
Bramphousian,
Posted on: 2011-05-17 08:46 in Player Questions
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See my previous message. A sample size of 10 won't prove a damn thing other than the fact you've hit a lucky streak.
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
I hear what your saying but if I run 10(let's say) and I get greater than 10 shards per run...It's not random. I've been doing this December and the LGTF give 10 or more to me, never fails.
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My Characters
Knight Court--A CoH Story Complete 2/3/2012
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I've been "lucky" for 6 months :-) lol.
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Originally Posted by Finduilas
See my previous message. A sample size of 10 won't prove a damn thing other than the fact you've hit a lucky streak.
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Well, then I hope you've run it a lot and kept very precise records of how many shards you received. Trying to draw any valid conclusions from your memory of how many you've gotten is laughably unreliable.
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
I've been "lucky" for 6 months :-) lol.
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My Characters
Knight Court--A CoH Story Complete 2/3/2012
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For the record, I'm with "random is random", but if someone wants to test a theory that the random is either weighted or influence-able, more power to them. I just felt I needed to step in and push for more meaningful data and a decent sample size.|
Originally Posted by Finduilas
Well, then I hope you've run it a lot and kept very precise records of how many shards you received. Trying to draw any valid conclusions from your memory of how many you've gotten is laughably unreliable.
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And just so we're clear: A spreadsheet like this. Colums K-Q and S-Y are optional if hero stats does not track them, but R and Z are mandatory. Time is only necessary if you wish to prove the original claim of the thread; that the LGTF is the superior task force for shard drops. "Team levels" could be shortened to 1 column of "# of team mates eligible to receive shard drops", and it would probably be more accurate as lvl 50s don't necessarily have the alpha slot unlocked.
"My inner mind has become a reality-cracking overgod. He torments me! Help!"
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This spreadsheet looks nice but here are my questions. I can't monitor all of these statistics during the game. Also, every player would have to use herostat(if it can track all of this information). |
Originally Posted by The Grim Heaper
For the record, I'm with "random is random", but if someone wants to test a theory that the random is either weighted or influence-able, more power to them. I just felt I needed to step in and push for more meaningful data and a decent sample size.
And just so we're clear: A spreadsheet like this. Colums K-Q and S-Y are optional if hero stats does not track them, but R and Z are mandatory. Time is only necessary if you wish to prove the original claim of the thread; that the LGTF is the superior task force for shard drops. "Team levels" could be shortened to 1 column of "# of team mates eligible to receive shard drops", and it would probably be more accurate as lvl 50s don't necessarily have the alpha slot unlocked. |
Next, I'm willing to take shot at this but this would be over a year and it would be 1 lgtf and 1 itf each month because so much has to be planned.
Finally, that means 24 runs over a year(12 lgtfs/12 itfs). Can you make a conclusion based on this period?
The very first ITF I did after unlocking the Alpha slot gave me 11 or 12 Incarnate Shards. Super lucky, right? But since then, I've only gotten 8 at most in a single run.
And then, last night, I did a LGTF. I got three Incarnate Shards out of the whole thing (2 for Hami and one for either H'rod'tohz or Honoree, can't remember). Not so lucky, I know. 
But it's okay... cuz... RANDOM IS FLIPPING RANDOM.
Main Hero: Chad Gulzow-Man (Victory) 50, 1396 Badges
Main Villain: Evil Gulzow-Man (Victory) 50, 1193 Badges
Mission Architect arcs: Doctor Brainstorm's An Experiment Gone Awry, Arc ID 2093
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
it's NEVER too late to pad your /ignore list!
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It may appear to be random for you and I'm okay with that. I just want to confirm it. I wonder if each Archetype has a "soul TF." My Controller sucks air in the lgtf but my Dominator(s) gets results over the top regularly in the LGTF. This can't be random. Unfortunately, all of my toons on Freedom are Dominators, except for my controller(alpha only) and MM(which I won't Alpha till later this year or next).
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... *headdesk* >_<|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
It may appear to be random for you and I'm okay with that.
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Main Hero: Chad Gulzow-Man (Victory) 50, 1396 Badges
Main Villain: Evil Gulzow-Man (Victory) 50, 1193 Badges
Mission Architect arcs: Doctor Brainstorm's An Experiment Gone Awry, Arc ID 2093
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
it's NEVER too late to pad your /ignore list!
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While, yes, you could get a more complete picture by having everyone on the team use herostats and send you the data, we really only need your data.|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
This spreadsheet looks nice but here are my questions. I can't monitor all of these statistics during the game. Also, every player would have to use herostat(if it can track all of this information).
Next, I'm willing to take shot at this but this would be over a year and it would be 1 lgtf and 1 itf each month because so much has to be planned. Finally, that means 24 runs over a year(12 lgtfs/12 itfs). Can you make a conclusion based on this period? |
I've refined the spreadsheet a little after determining what herostats can actually track. Basically the two statistics you need from herostats are "Villains defeated: you or team" (put this under K) and "Villains defeated: final blow" (this one goes under L).
you just need to "reset all statistics" at the start of the taskforce, and then jot those two numbers down (Plus number of shards dropped, and elapsed time of the TF) at the end of the TF.
"My inner mind has become a reality-cracking overgod. He torments me! Help!"
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Will team composition and level play into this? Why I ask is this:|
Originally Posted by The Grim Heaper
I've refined the spreadsheet a little after determining what herostats can actually track. Basically the two statistics you need from herostats are "Villains defeated: you or team" (put this under K) and "Villains defeated: final blow" (this one goes under L).
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- Aren't shards dropped by eligible critters, not players? I.e., if a lvl47 defeats a lvl50 critter that critter may have dropped a shard but the lvl47 player was unable to receive it.
- In a team setting, aren't shards distributed only to eligible Alpha unlocked characters? Meaning, if I'm on a team of 8, where only 4 of us are Alpha unlocked, then when a shard is created it's randomly rolled to only the 4, not the entire team of 8?
I'm pulling this from memory and not certain if it's true, so please debunk if incorrect.
Main Character: Ice/Storm/Ice Controller (Justice, 1340 badges)
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There was no doubt in my mind about that. I just wanted to make sure the OP understood that running a few LGTFs over the weekend would not provide anything close to evidence of it being NON-random.
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Originally Posted by The Grim Heaper
For the record, I'm with "random is random", but if someone wants to test a theory that the random is either weighted or influence-able, more power to them. I just felt I needed to step in and push for more meaningful data and a decent sample size.
And just so we're clear: A spreadsheet like this. Colums K-Q and S-Y are optional if hero stats does not track them, but R and Z are mandatory. Time is only necessary if you wish to prove the original claim of the thread; that the LGTF is the superior task force for shard drops. "Team levels" could be shortened to 1 column of "# of team mates eligible to receive shard drops", and it would probably be more accurate as lvl 50s don't necessarily have the alpha slot unlocked. |
My Characters
Knight Court--A CoH Story Complete 2/3/2012
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I use this trick too when I run tips at +1x8. I purposely invite lowbies to raise my odds. I didn't collect data to back it up tho, but I seem to get more shards when the rest of the team is not 50.|
Originally Posted by Emberly
I regularly find that the ITF generates more shards for me when I am SKing people along rather than running a doom train of Incarnated 50s.
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As for TFs, some swear by ITF, others with LGTF and BSF. For me, the SF that wins is the one that has the highest shard drop to minute ratio:
SF complete time / (# shards + 4)
The +4 is the value of 1 component, ie, 1 Vial of Hero 1 is worth 4 shards.
ITF leads with the highest ratio: 25 / (5 + 4) = 2 mins per shard
LGTF is in the middle: 63 / (10 + 4) = 4.5 mins per shard
BSF is the worst: 75 / (10 + 4) = 5.3 mins per shard
Based on the above formula, the SF that can be completed fastest has the best drop rate. In this case, ITF.
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You may HEAR what I'm saying, but clearly you don't understand it. Ten runs is MEANINGLESS to judge randomness.
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
I hear what your saying but if I run 10(let's say) and I get greater than 10 shards per run...It's not random.
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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Eh, you might think that with all your edumacations and understanding of basic statistics (we're talking high school level stuff here, not college level) and your readin' comprehensions and all that guff, but he KNOWS the answer in his heart and soul, which overrides and invalidates complimicated stuff like basic mathematics, testing, and basic logical principles. When you KNOW something even the person who created the thing in question is less informed of the TRUTH than you. Evidence and reason is trumped, nay, invalidated, by KNOWING.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
You may HEAR what I'm saying, but clearly you don't understand it. Ten runs is MEANINGLESS to judge randomness.
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KNOWING.
So there.
Dr. Todt's theme.
i make stuff...
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Knowing is half the battle?
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Originally Posted by Schismatrix
Evidence and reason is trumped, nay, invalidated, by KNOWING.
KNOWING. So there. |
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Bold is mine for Emphasis:
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[QUOTE=Zombie Man;3647361]RANDOM IS RAN... wait. What holidays?[/QUOTE]|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
We'll talk after the holidays. I said I would post my lgtf runs.
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Originally Posted by Honbrid
Memorial Day weekend in the United States next weekend? (not this weekend, next weekend)
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
Why did you say this. I plan weeks in advance. Please I want to make sure all that read the forums see this. If I wait till mid-week next week plans will already be in place for most.
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Champion 50s (blueside): Marc Bridge, Nicole Bridge, Fred Blaze, Colleen Storms, Sun's Chariot, Moon's Huntress, Point of Pride
Guardian 50s (redside): Connie Mand
AE arc: Spirit Plane Invasion, #29282, @Honbrid
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I wish I had status from Dec. I so wish I did. I've run LGTF so many times I've lost count. At least once a month, I've run it non-stop in dedicated weekends(4days) till I feel asleep at the console. |
Originally Posted by Ironblade
You may HEAR what I'm saying, but clearly you don't understand it. Ten runs is MEANINGLESS to judge randomness.
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Stats for yesterday:
Diva Attitude
Team
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
Shards 10.
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Your make the assumption that the devs have told us everything and your not accounting for the bugs that exist in every piece of man-made software.
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Originally Posted by Schismatrix
Eh, you might think that with all your edumacations and understanding of basic statistics (we're talking high school level stuff here, not college level) and your readin' comprehensions and all that guff, but he KNOWS the answer in his heart and soul, which overrides and invalidates complimicated stuff like basic mathematics, testing, and basic logical principles. When you KNOW something even the person who created the thing in question is less informed of the TRUTH than you. Evidence and reason is trumped, nay, invalidated, by KNOWING.
KNOWING. So there. |
Example, fixing lag:
This is the devs comments from yesterday to me:
On a possibly related note, I was made aware of a patch targeted for next week. I was just informed of it this morning, so we didn't have the information for you earlier. This patch is scheduled to include fixes for some lag related issues, particularly surrounding the combat numbers and log chat. If you are keeping track of these kinds of items, you may try turning these off temporarily to see if your play experience improves. This patch should be applied before the surge event of next week, so you may see additional improvement once it is available.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
Cody
NCsoft Technical Support Lead
To contact our Billing or Technical Support by phone please call (512) 225-6359.
· Monday - Friday, 12 PM - 5 PM Central Time (North America)
· Long distance charges may apply.
I got 16 shards on an ITF once; I regularly get 8-12 on most ITF runs. I have had a run where I only got 5 shards. Keep in mind, that I have never run a clear all ITF; at most we have cleared the first two missions, but never cleared the last two.
The best thing I can say? YMMV. Your gameplay experiences don't translate into what everyone else experiences; it's great that you are having good shard runs on the LGTF, but that doesn't mean that the LGTF is a great shard producing TF for everybody.
I find your lack of signature disturbing.
This is an off topic post. A patch is coming to address lag this week:
Told to remove my post.
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No, but we understand what "random" means. Random is random, regardless of what bugs may exist. As for the devs not telling us everything, this is true. But they have told us ENOUGH about some systems. This is one of them.
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
Your make the assumption that the devs have told us everything and your not accounting for the bugs that exist in every piece of man-made software.
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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The other half is tapping into Charlie Sheen's logic engine.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Knowing is half the battle?
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Be warned, lingering effects of doing so may include migraines, constantly assuming (which really annoys ming), and making baseless assertions long after you've already had why they're baseless explained to you.
Dr. Todt's theme.
i make stuff...
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If you say so:|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
No, but we understand what "random" means. Random is random, regardless of what bugs may exist. As for the devs not telling us everything, this is true. But they have told us ENOUGH about some systems. This is one of them.
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Last night's LGTF results:
Diva Attitude
Team: 8 (1 dropped off early)
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50(dropped)
8.49
Shards 12
2 Purples(Armageddon Dam & Soulbound Alliegence),
Edit: I'd like to be able to monitor the whole team but we don't have the tools. Pugs will never agree to this. I can barely get regularly teams together when I plan months in advance.