The real difference between Trial and non-Trial Incarnate Advancement
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2011-04-11 09:25 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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I'm averaging four threads per trial run. For threads to drop five times faster, even if I were to assume for discussion purposes that trials are twice as fasst as ITFs I would have to average less than two per ITF. That's far, far, far less than my average. So I'm disinclined to believe that the ratio is five to one in favor of threads over shards.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I feel like I'm missing something here. This looks like it is saying that Shards drop five times more often that Threads? I don't know what the actual ratio of the probabilities is, but I'm certain Threads drop significantly more often than Shards. I get probably 2-6 Threads per trial (not counting any breakdowns). I get something like 0-4 Shards per speed run of an ITF, which I think is actually a lot more required defeated mobs than either new trial.
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I have also never gotten zero in an ITF of any kind. Not even speeds that fail on Romulus and never bother to attempt to clear the end. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it has to be highly uncommon if I've never seen it at all in a lot of runs.
And as I said earlier, a speed run isn't a reasonable comparison for the ITF due to the fact that it earns far less shards. It earns more *if* you're counting the drop table at the end in terms of its *creation* costs - if you want that component for Alpha. But we're not counting the component in terms of its creation costs, but in terms of its breakdown costs to get to shards and then threads. And if we are, we should assume people run the ITF to optimize shard drops, which are not speed runs if the component counts as only one.
I honestly don't know what the kill ratio is for ITFs verses trials, especially because I'm not sure the rank ratio is the same either. Since shards (and I'm guessing threads) drop faster for higher ranks - minions have very low shard drop rates relative to LTs and Bosses - even if the numbers in BAF and Lambda are lower, its unclear if you end up killing more bosses as a ratio of the total in the trials or the ITF. I'm not in a position to collect that sort of statistics at the moment: I'll probably try to do so later this week when I'm back on a more powerful computer (I've been on a laptop since Wednesday).
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If you believe you must pursue these rewards as fast as possible, and you're complaining you're being forced to pursue these rewards as fast as possible, I'm afraid you probably have an intractable problem.
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Originally Posted by Test_Rat
I know what is coming. Level shifted NPC, and Level Shift debuffs. Its only natural. I have played plenty of MMOs where if you don't stay with the pack you never catch up. A +3 toon is more attractive to teams than a +1, so if you don't have the T3s at least, you are in danger of being left out of future content. As such Level shift is not optional. |
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Well that would be true if i21 was next Tuesday, but it's not.
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Originally Posted by Test_Rat
I know what is coming. Level shifted NPC, and Level Shift debuffs. Its only natural. I have played plenty of MMOs where if you don't stay with the pack you never catch up. A +3 toon is more attractive to teams than a +1, so if you don't have the T3s at least, you are in danger of being left out of future content. . |
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
If you believe you must pursue these rewards as fast as possible, and you're complaining you're being forced to pursue these rewards as fast as possible, I'm afraid you probably have an intractable problem.
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the only thing thats really the big difference is that running the trials you can get up to the tier 4 powers for free, for shard converting this can get VERY expensive (cost me about 380 mil just to convert 225 shards and a few extra threads to just unlock all the slots)
there is also the conversion requiring 10 shards which is slow to get for some poeple
honestly shards should be worth more than threads, since less shards are required for alpha stuff, the 10 shard to 5 thread conversion just makes it worse for the non trial method, if anything the once a 20 hour conversion should be 10 shards to 15 or 20 threads and the all the time one should be an even 1:1 convert
from my experience, shards and threads seem to drop about the same if its a tf or trial, but solo the shard drop rate does seem to go down considerably
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I gave a random guess, because the actual number of trials was irrelevant to the results. The point here is really that I got X running trials last week, and if I'd run non Trial content instead using the same amount of playtime, I'd have gotten Y. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
You're saying you ran 15 to 20 trials; I compared that to running 15 to 20 task forces as the standard content equivalent.
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| But even if I use your numbers and say that running 15-20 trials is equal to running only 5 to 7 task forces (and that is *wildly* skewed towards the incarnate trials) you're saying that in 5 to 7 task force runs you'd only get 18 shards, averaging 3 per run. |
So, for the purpose of equivalency, I was using my actual Thread drops and converting via what the devs told us in beta: that Threads drop 5 times as often as shards. If you know the real drop difference, that would be awesome to know, and I'll adjust the OP accordingly. I actually made comments during my trial runs that while I did get far more Threads, it didn't feel like 5 times. I was promptly told to quit my whining and convert Astral Merits.
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| My average shard drop rate for ITFs is closer to 7 in about an hour plus the component (plows, not quicks - nobody running for shards runs quicks), and my trial run time average has been close to 35 minutes: some faster, some slower. If we assume my trial drop rates were similar to yours per trial (because I don't have those numbers in front of me) then 18 trial runs (taking the average estimate for number of runs) would take about 630 minutes, the equivalent of 6.5 of my ITFs. That's 52 shards including component breakdown. That's a difference of a factor of three just in the shard earning estimate alone. |
If you want to give data for your drop rates, that would be awesome. What have you gotten over the last week? How long do you think it would take to do the same thing just running TFs? What if you ran normal missions?
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| And that's a slow ITF average: I haven't run a plow yet with I20 Incarnates plowing it. I would imagine the teams I've been running trials with would obliterate an ITF plow in about a half hour: I've seen really fast teams get close to that without I20 incarnate powers. |
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| That's effectively accounting for a difference of over 5.5x the shard/thread estimate in your OP. That's already a huge discrepancy that isn't likely accountable to anecdotal anomalies. |
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| If you're going to make an extraordinary claim like the standard earning rate is one hundred times slower than the trials, you have an obligation to be conservative on your estimates. |
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| If you're highly aggressive, and it seems every single one of your calculation decisions was highly aggressive, it makes the conclusion very shaky. Its entirely possible the trials are twenty times faster, maybe even thirty times faster. To assert they are a hundred times faster I would want very strong evidence. |
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OK, but let's unpack that. The Alpha slot debutted in Issue 19 and included content that more or less requires that you have an Alpha power slotted. Now, issue 20 debuts and the progression continues. So, of course, you must need the Alpha in order to do the new trials? Well, hmmm, it seems you don't. In fact, you can earn the Alpha through the new content.|
Originally Posted by Test_Rat
I know what is coming. Level shifted NPC, and Level Shift debuffs. Its only natural. I have played plenty of MMOs where if you don't stay with the pack you never catch up. A +3 toon is more attractive to teams than a +1, so if you don't have the T3s at least, you are in danger of being left out of future content. As such Level shift is not optional. Dechs: Its alot harder to get a Lambda trial simply because people run them less and less as time goes by. |
So it really doesn't seem wise to assume that you'll need the new slots in order to move forward in the system. But let's say it does. When the new trials recently announced are released is it your plan to grind them out until you're not having fun playing anymore as well? At that point then, what's the purpose in playing? Grinding for digital shinies doesn't sound like fun to me. You should play to have fun. If you take your time, don't make it feel like an interminable grind, then maybe you won't be as effective as you could be when new trials come out. But as we see with BAF and Lambda, it doesn't take a very long time to catch up. So maybe if you do 3-6 trials a week instead of ten in one day, you'll wind up in the same place you would have anyway.
Just a thought. Ultimately, no one can define your goals and desires but you. But what you're describing seems like work to me and I don't pay to work.
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Honestly even if the ratio was 10:50 it would still take longer for solo players to finish than Alpha slot (it would take about 1.67 months to get one VR). And that would require them to farm 10 shards a day. And would still cost money. And would still be significantly slower than trials (solo players would take a bit under 7 months to earn it all, which is something trial runners can do in a week or two).
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Originally Posted by PRAF68_EU
Dispari has more than enough credability, and certainly doesn't need to borrow any from you.
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Wow. That's low. Are you only doing BAFs? Most of my Thread drops came from Lambdas.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
I'm averaging four threads per trial run.
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If you refuse to do the trials.....why do you need to go any higher than the uncommon?
The level shift for the rares of Destiny and Lore only works IN the trials. So, if you aren't going to run them, why do you need it?
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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison See, it's gems like these that make me check Claws' post history every once in a while to make sure I haven't missed anything good lately. |
I've updated the OP again, as if I estimate that I could have done 9 TFs in that time frame, 18 Shards is way too low. I doubled it to 36, which means 4 shards per TF, which is probably closer to my actual average performance.
I wish I'd kept better track of my actual Thread drops, and that we were certain of the actual drop rate differences.
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Aside from the level shift, do Rare and Very Rare sections give that ability more power? |
Originally Posted by ClawsandEffect
If you refuse to do the trials.....why do you need to go any higher than the uncommon?
The level shift for the rares of Destiny and Lore only works IN the trials. So, if you aren't going to run them, why do you need it? |
I know it's a dumb question but that's how I feel every time some poses a question similar to yours.
Sure, I don't need the level shift but I also don't need the damn game either.
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I'm not sure which Trial you've been running, but over the weekend I focused on the Lambda TF, and I averaged between 10-15 threads per run, plus 2-4 Astral Merits which break down into 4 threads apiece (since these have no other function as of yet, they might as well be counted.) This doesn't count trials that crash out or fail early on from similar problems. Not all of these trials were successful either.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
I'm averaging four threads per trial run. For threads to drop five times faster, even if I were to assume for discussion purposes that trials are twice as fasst as ITFs I would have to average less than two per ITF. That's far, far, far less than my average. So I'm disinclined to believe that the ratio is five to one in favor of threads over shards.
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Now, assuming a low-end scenario of 10 threads and 2 astrals, at 5 threads to one shard, that's 3 shards and change. That's a REALLY poor run on an ITF, but not impossible. At two to one, that's 9 shards, which is a fairly decent run. Best case (15 threads, 4 astrals) at 5 to 1 would be 6 shards, which is a below-average ITF and at 2 to 1 it's 15 shards, which is an exceptional run. This doesn't even get into the fact that 2 Lambda runs can
be done in the same time frame as one ITF.
I don't think a 5 to 1 scale is quite right in terms of shard vs. thread drops, but I also don't think it's very far off that, at least in my own experience.
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I've gotten between 3 and 6 threads in my 4 BAFs and 2 Lambdas.
Don't know if that helps or not.
I kinda think they are counting on some of the Astral and Empyreal Merits being broken down as well.
My wife ran one BAF and got enough between thread drops and the merits for a successful completion to unlock her Judgement slot after one run, and craft 2 of the pieces needed to slot something in it.
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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison See, it's gems like these that make me check Claws' post history every once in a while to make sure I haven't missed anything good lately. |
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I understand and agree with your point to a certain extent. But it's more nuanced than that. Persons who refuse for whatever reason to engage in the trials don't need to be treated as second class citizens, but they also won't really be able to leverage the additional power rares give you.|
Originally Posted by Clouded
Aside from the level shift, do Rare and Very Rare sections give that ability more power?
I know it's a dumb question but that's how I feel every time some poses a question similar to yours. Sure, I don't need the level shift but I also don't need the damn game either. |
For example, I was doing a tip mission today and much of the power I gained from the Incarnate abilities this week were a complete waste. I herded up a nice pack of DE mobs and slapped a judgment on them. Of course, it wasted them. BUT, the damage was so beyond their number of HP and that's an uncommon Ion. A rare or very rare wouldn't have done any better.
I get the idea of wanting the shinies because you want the shinies. But at a certain point, there's really nothing the game is throwing at a solo character where a rare is that much better than an uncommon. But as we know the time differential between those two is rather high and higher still between a rare and an ultra-rare.
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Call me lazy, call me stupid, call me whatever you want to, but all this math, all these conversions etc takes a lot of the fun away from the game to me. That is one of the reasons I'm more than likely not going to participate in the Incarnate system past the Alpha slot. If I happen to make progress towards the other slots then so be it, otherwise I'm not going to bother.
My hat goes off to all you players that can/will and have no problem with the current way to make progress with this system. After 8 hours of dealing with Windows and Unix servers, then another 3-4 hours of class, the last thing I want to do is stress my remaining brain cells out on something that should be "fun". Luckily there are enough other things to do to keep me occupied.
Who do I have to *&^% around here to get more Targeted AoE recipes added?
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Was this at +2,+3,+4 Level difficulty? |
Originally Posted by EvilGeko
I understand and agree with your point to a certain extent. But it's more nuanced than that. Persons who refuse for whatever reason to engage in the trials don't need to be treated as second class citizens, but they also won't really be able to leverage the additional power rares give you.
For example, I was doing a tip mission today and much of the power I gained from the Incarnate abilities this week were a complete waste. I herded up a nice pack of DE mobs and slapped a judgment on them. Of course, it wasted them. BUT, the damage was so beyond their number of HP and that's an uncommon Ion. A rare or very rare wouldn't have done any better. |
I need more experience with Void but I'm pretty sure that the T4 version of mine offers a significant damage debuff. It's possible I could waste them all. Need to try it again. (took void due to concept, dark/ defender).
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Originally Posted by EvilGeko
I get the idea of wanting the shinies because you want the shinies. But at a certain point, there's really nothing the game is throwing at a solo character where a rare is that much better than an uncommon.
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I know people who will replace the 3 level 45 IOs in Hasten with level 50 IOs. This game is perfect for min/max players and there are a whole lot of them. Telling people they don't need Tier 4 is not an argument, it's a deflection.
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The powers get better every level. Interface increases at a set rate every level. If you stop at uncommon you can't have decent proc rates on DoT or -DMG. Each one adds an extra +25% for something. Lore and Destiny grow significantly better every level (to answer your question, the difference between an uncommon and VR is a boss vs a boss + lt with passive extra damage). A Destiny at uncommon to VR is easily double the strength and value. Judgement is the only one where stopping at uncommon has arguable worth to me (even then I took mine to rare for the +radius).
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Originally Posted by ClawsandEffect
If you refuse to do the trials.....why do you need to go any higher than the uncommon?
The level shift for the rares of Destiny and Lore only works IN the trials. So, if you aren't going to run them, why do you need it? |
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Originally Posted by PRAF68_EU
Dispari has more than enough credability, and certainly doesn't need to borrow any from you.
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I read these threads and more and more I see the people fail to follow things thru in a logical manner.
1. Are we likely to see MORE different currencies making both shards and threads less attractive in future content?
2. Are we likely to see Content where not having the boosted attributes makes you undesirable to a team? You know where if you don't have it you compete at -8 or something.
3. These rewards will possibly be required to get still other rewards later?
4. if a hamster in a ball style of play appears a successful model will we get MORE of it?
This is not in my opinion a good direction for a 7 year old game to take.
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I'll use Arcanaville's standard reply. Because I'm not advocating a change. You bear the burden of showing that the devs' chosen path is in error. You haven't. You've shown that it takes a long time to do this solo. I agree with you. The design question you haven't shown is that it taking as long as it does is a bad idea.|
Originally Posted by Clouded
To take your reply; So?
I know people who will replace the 3 level 45 IOs in Hasten with level 50 IOs. This game is perfect for min/max players and there are a whole lot of them. Telling people they don't need Tier 4 is not an argument, it's a deflection. |
I actually agree with you it's a bad idea. I think it takes entirely too long to do this solo compared to the trials. I wish the devs would create a hard, content based solo path that's still slower but not punitively so. But really, that's just my opinion about proper design.
The devs could easily feel that it's so important to create incentives to do the trials, at least initially, that they are going to maintain a period of de facto exclusivity in the trials. That may be one issue or five. Who knows? But if you're going to argue that the non-trial path should be much quicker, then I think its incumbent to prove:
1) Not having a faster path puts non-trial runners at a material disadvantage over those who run trials;
2) That such material disadvantage runs is hurtful to the game in some way that the devs should change their mind.
As to the first point. I don't think non-trial runners are put at a material disadvantage. I don't think the difference between an uncommon and a rare is large enough that a person who has one or the other is significantly weaker. I think your choice of primary/secondary, your build choices and your IO choices still make a MUCH bigger difference in overall power.
As to the second point, I'm not sure that anyone has shown any real harm to the game from some folks being effectively shut out of these rewards. Has it caused an exodus from the game? I don't know honestly, but the servers seem pretty busy to me. Servers that I rarely see in the yellow have been over the last week.
As compared to hard TFs, I don't see even a hint of elitism. Other than wanting one actual tank on the trials and a few controllers for certain parts, people seem to be pretty open to different teammates. Needing so many people seems to push folks into being more open with their selections.
So, it seems to me that the argument, "I wants the precious." While a valid and not unreasonable argument, isn't sufficient by itself to generate changes.
The City of Heroes Community is a special one and I will always look fondly on my times arguing, discussing and playing with you all. Thanks and thanks to the developers for a special experience.
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While I have enjoyed the trials (only 3 runs total for me though), I have to say I don't understand that question, Dechs (and, no, you're not the first I've seen ask it).|
Originally Posted by Clouded
I don't understand this question. Are you asking what need they have for Judgement, Lore, and/or Destiny powers? Seems like an obvious answer.
Answer: Because they are awesome powers to supplement my awesome hero/villain! |
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Originally Posted by DanZero
Incarnate rewards for Incanate content. The only need for them is to play the incarnate content.
If you only want them because they're 'awesome', then run the trials until you have them. You can stop at any time your satisfied with your Incarnate slots. If you only want to solo, and you still want them because they're 'awesome', grind shards at the slow slow slow rate, or grab a helmet and run the trials once per day each until you are satisfied with your incanate slot. Again, you won't have to run them forever. Just for the slots, which, according to the various maths in this thread, won't take that many times through trial rewards. If you never want to set foot in an Incarnate trial, ever never never refuse no friggin way, want all the Incarnate abilities maxed out in short order, you are out of luck. The Incarnate Abilities were designed specifically for the incarnate content, not to allow people to run +4 x8 even faster solo. Or to solo ITF, or to be a 1 man Hamidon team. If you want to use them for that, fine. But that was not the purpose of adding them to the game. It's an endgame system. And probably the least time intensive endgame content of any game. It's endgame. Not character advancement. It's gear. Raid gear. You don't like raid gear and endgamey stuff, then yeah, i20 is a crappy issue for you. If i21 is more endgame stuff, then that will be a crappy issue for you. Complain all you want but there is nothing flawed with adding an endgame system that only gives the rewards for completing the endgame content. What did you want this to be? Just levels 50-55 with new powers to use on the old content? |
If that were the case, then we wouldn't be able to use our Incarnate Powers elsewhere.
Oh wait... we can.
Sorry, but that argument holds no water.
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I only used speed runs because that's an internally consistent measure for my own experiences. The people I go with speed run both the ITF and the new trials. Now, the reality is, there isn't all that much to speed past in the BAF, and mostly the only thing we really speed past in LS is the mobs defending the sabotage objectives. That's not an inconsiderable number of critters to skip, but the point is that skipping those, I still probably average 2-3x more Threads per trial than I do Shards per ITF, and the ITF absolutely requires that we defeat some four hundred critters minimum, and all defeats are performed by the same team. (If I understand the reward mechanics correctly, we do not get a chance at Thread drops for things our team does not damage in a League.)
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
And as I said earlier, a speed run isn't a reasonable comparison for the ITF due to the fact that it earns far less shards. It earns more *if* you're counting the drop table at the end in terms of its *creation* costs - if you want that component for Alpha. But we're not counting the component in terms of its creation costs, but in terms of its breakdown costs to get to shards and then threads. And if we are, we should assume people run the ITF to optimize shard drops, which are not speed runs if the component counts as only one.
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Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Yes, we can use our Incarnate powers elsewhere. But if you're not doing incarnate designed content, you don't need them.|
Originally Posted by Electric-Knight
While I have enjoyed the trials (only 3 runs total for me though), I have to say I don't understand that question, Dechs (and, no, you're not the first I've seen ask it).
... If that were the case, then we wouldn't be able to use our Incarnate Powers elsewhere. Oh wait... we can. Sorry, but that argument holds no water. |
If you're a solo player in a massive multiplayer game, and some rewards are out of your reach because you choose not to involve yourself in that content, then I'm sorry. The fact that the devs even provided a way to obtain these rewards without participating in the content is a gift.
This is all in my opinion, of course. I don't see a reason to change it. I haven't seen a compelling argument that it needs to be changed. As EvilGeko pointed out, anyone who doesn't like it has the burden of proof.
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I log all this stuff, and I looked to see if I could parse my drops ouf of my logs. I can but there's no good indicator of the end of the trial in the logs. Unlike a TF, there's no message saying "You saved/conquered the world!" at the end of the new trials. It's fairly annoying.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
If you take your time and just have fun, the abilities will come when they come. It's something to work for. It's the chase that's important.
Level shifted NPC, and Level Shift debuffs. Its only natural.
If you don't stay with the pack you never catch up.
A +3 toon is more attractive to teams than a +1, so if you don't have the T3s at least, you are in danger of being left out of future content.
As such Level shift is not optional.
Dechs: Its alot harder to get a Lambda trial simply because people run them less and less as time goes by.
When something good happens to me, I can never enjoy it....
I am always too busy looking for the inevitable punchline...
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