City of Heroes: Live Forum Archive

hyperinflation

Adeon Hawkwood

By Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2011-02-12 21:45 in The Market and Inventions

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
That's a good point, and one I had overlooked. Thanks for mentioning it.

The rest of this thread seems to have gone to the americans, but I wanted to add something on the topic of just looking at the price of goods, and not knowing their transaction volumes.

Looking at individual parts of the market is confusing about whether or how much inflation is going on. Even if we don't cherry pick, none of us likely has broad enough market data to say for sure what's going on over time in terms of transaction volume. We know some stuff has gone up dramatically in price, some stuff has gone down, and some stuff hasn't changed much. What we don't know for sure is how much of the total market's money volume those items contribute. Other posters have alluded to or outright said that, but I wanted to try and express it a bit more visually, to try and get it across to more folks if possible.

Imagine we have this simplified market scenario:

Code:
       Label #/Day     Price         Total/Day       Market Total
       A      5       500,000,000   2,500,000,000    10,000,000,000
       B      25      100,000,000   2,500,000,000
       C      100     10,000,000    1,000,000,000
       D      300     5,000,000     1,500,000,000
       E      1,000   2,500,000     2,500,000,000
So in this imaginary market, we sell 5 items a day that cost 500M inf, and 1000 items a day that cost 2.5M inf. Across the whole market, 10B inf changes hands a day.

Now, let's look at an imaginary version of this market from three years ago, and imagine that prices were quite different.

Code:
       Label  #/Day   Price        Total/Day       Market Total
       A      5       50,000,000   2,500,000       4,000,000,000
       B      25      20,000,000   500,000,000
       C      100     10,000,000   1,000,000,000
       D      300     1,500,000    1,500,000,000
       E      1,000   1,500,000    1,500,000,000
In this older market, our top tier items (row A) used to cost 1/10th of what they do today. The next tier down costs 1/5th of that they do today. Items in Row C didn't change. Maybe this is a category of goods whose prices stayed consistent, but more likely, this is a mix of that, plus some stuff the price of which fell, but was replaced by some stuff the price of which rose. Rows D and E are goods that used to cost 1/2 and 2/3 of what they do currently. Across the whole market, 4B inf changed hands a day.

Now, pretty clearly this example market experienced broad price inflation. In both cases, there are 1430 items being sold per day, but in the "old" data, that represented 4B inf changing hands, and in the "new" data, it's 10B inf. But measured across the whole market, the above example wouldn't be "hyperinflation" based on even the FASB criteria, despite the fact that its most expensive items went up in price by a factor of 10.

Now, before anyone jumps on the example, while I tried to make it look something like our market, it's far too simplified for me to be trying to say that's really the ratio in then and now. My # of transaction/day column is probably wildly off-base, and I don't really think we could then/now compare price categories directly the way I did - there would probably just be too much drift of items between categories. It was just meant to illustrate more visually that even huge price increase don't necessarily equate to huge inflation.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people look at our market, tunnel vision on the best shinies and assume the market has gone to hell because those things' prices have shot up like crazy. It probably doesn't really work out like that.

I was wondering if anyone was going to point out why this wasn't relevant and at best a rationalization of a position taken earlier.

First seeing as this was lost on the poster

Quote:
Definition inflation: In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. .
So yes

Quote:
It was just meant to illustrate more visually that even huge price increase don't necessarily equate to huge inflation.
Huge price increases do equate to huge inflation. That is what inflation is.

The concept was presented earlier in this very thread but seems to have not penetrated

Quote:
Originally Posted by peterpeter View Post
As I recall, part of the real-life business of defining and measuring inflation is defining a basket of goods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_basket

Of course, different people buy different stuff, in real life as well as the game. I found this FAQ interesting. Actually, this one might be more fun to read. It has pictures.

I wonder if we could develop some kind of CoH market basket?

Now taking the scenario presented

Code:
        New Price       Old Price     # used    New build cost           Old build cost
A         500,000,000.00 50,000,000.00     5.00        2,500,000,000.00  250,000,000.00
B         100,000,000.00 20,000,000.00    10.00        1,000,000,000.00  200,000,000.00
C          10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00    10.00          100,000,000.00  100,000,000.00
D           5,000,000.00  1,500,000.00    10.00           50,000,000.00   15,000,000.00
E           2,500,000.00  1,500,000.00    10.00           25,000,000.00   15,000,000.00


                                      Totals           3,675,000,000.00  580,000,000.00
We get a build going from 580 mil inf in the old market, to 3.675 billion now.

I suppose given sufficient tunnel vision you could find someway not to call that inflation.

Edit: Wait The OP did just that managed to create an example of massive inflation and then worked very hard to find some way to say it wasn't.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
[...]
Now taking the scenario presented

Code:
        New Price       Old Price     # used    New build cost           Old build cost
A         500,000,000.00 50,000,000.00     5.00        2,500,000,000.00  250,000,000.00
B         100,000,000.00 20,000,000.00    10.00        1,000,000,000.00  200,000,000.00
C          10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00    10.00          100,000,000.00  100,000,000.00
D           5,000,000.00  1,500,000.00    10.00           50,000,000.00   15,000,000.00
E           2,500,000.00  1,500,000.00    10.00           25,000,000.00   15,000,000.00


                                      Totals           3,675,000,000.00  580,000,000.00
We get a build going from 580 mil inf in the old market, to 3.675 billion now.

I suppose given sufficient tunnel vision you could find someway not to call that inflation.

Edit: Wait The OP did just that managed to create an example of massive inflation and then worked very hard to find some way to say it wasn't.
Now take the scenario presented, and realize that for every build like that there are about 10 builds that look like this:

Code:
        New Price       Old Price     # used    New build cost           Old build cost
E           2,500,000.00  1,500,000.00    55.00           137,000,000.00   82,500,000.00
And about 10 builds that look like this:

Code:
        New Price       Old Price     # used    New build cost           Old build cost
D           5,000,000.00  1,500,000.00    20.00           100,000,000.00   30,000,000.00
E           2,500,000.00  1,500,000.00    35.00           87,500,000.00   52,500,000.00
                                      Totals           187,500,000.00  82,500,000.00[/FONT]
(and a couple builds using C's, D's and E's. The math is not precise.)

In the given scenario, you move a thousand E's a day, three hundred D's a day, and five A's a day.

Someone's buying all those E's and D's and slotting them. That person is seeing less than 250% inflation.

I'd like to be reasonable and balanced here, but you say things like
Quote:
you could find someway not to call that inflation.
in response to a post that included the line

Quote:
Now, pretty clearly this example market experienced broad price inflation.
If you don't like the phrase "strawman", how about "Bearing false witness?" "Making up convenient arguments and attributing them to other people?" "Lying about what other people say" ?

What do you call that, when you do it yourself?

Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.

So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.

 

Posted

Yeah, I'm not sure how the point was so thoroughly missed there.

  • I do think there is clearly market-wide inflation, and it's pretty high by real-world inflation comparison standards.
  • Folks calling it "hyperinflation" seem to be basing that firmly on the prices of the market's most rare and thus expensive items, or specific examples (such as specific level ranges) of popular but much more available items.
  • Looking at specific items or level ranges does not factor in transaction rates for those items, which is a critical factor in how their increase in prices contributes to the overall market's level of price inflation.
  • I'm not aware of a way any of us could have more than an educated guess about transaction volumes for the broader market, across recipes and level ranges.
My wild-donkey guess is that while we certainly have inflation, we either don't have "hyper" inflation across the whole market or only have it at the low end 300%+ per year definition.

If someone wants to define a basket of goods that's gone up in price a lot more than that and call the market defined by that basket hyperinflated, that's fine. I wouldn't consider that terribly useful in CoH, since I consider all the goods in its market luxury goods. When people define such baskets in the real world, they tend to include things everyone needs to survive, like foodstuffs. Nothing on the CoH market qualifies, so I decided to just look at the market as a whole. If I were going to invent such a basket, I'd focus on more low-end CoH luxuries that feel more like things "everyone would want" in lieu of "everyone requires". As such, I'd probably base it heavily on uncommons like Thunderstrike, Crushing Impact, Multi-Strike and non-BotZ KB IOs.

Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
Someone's buying all those E's and D's and slotting them. That person is seeing less than 250% inflation.

I'd like to be reasonable and balanced here, but you say things like


in response to a post that included the line



If you don't like the phrase "strawman", how about "Bearing false witness?" "Making up convenient arguments and attributing them to other people?" "Lying about what other people say" ?

What do you call that, when you do it yourself?
I'd laugh, and in fact I am.

We go from Uber guy's Goldilocks market to your everyone is poor and nobody makes a good build market or even wants a good build ? Or is it that most people don't want quality builds but there are all these IOs being traded every day any way ?

What would you call it when someone says here is my example "it doesn't mean anything but it shows things aren't so bad" and based on the "example that doesn't matter", anyone who is saying otherwise has "Tunnel vision"

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
  • Folks calling it "hyperinflation" seem to be basing that firmly on the prices of the market's most rare and thus expensive items, or specific examples (such as specific level ranges) of popular but much more available items.
  • Looking at specific items or level ranges does not factor in transaction rates for those items, which is a critical factor in how their increase in prices contributes to the overall market's level of price inflation.
My wild-donkey guess is that while we certainly have inflation, we either don't have "hyper" inflation across the whole market or only have it at the low end 300%+ per year definition.
Hyper inflation : cumulative inflation rate over three years approaching 100% (26% per annum compounded for three years in a row)

I knew I could count on redefinition of the topic.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
I'd laugh, and in fact I am.

We go from Uber guy's Goldilocks market to your everyone is poor and nobody makes a good build market or even wants a good build ? Or is it that most people don't want quality builds but there are all these IOs being traded every day any way ?

What would you call it when someone says here is my example "it doesn't mean anything but it shows things aren't so bad" and based on the "example that doesn't matter", anyone who is saying otherwise has "Tunnel vision"
Not that I needed any more posts from you to confirm this, but once again you are being deliberately obtuse. It's obvious and blatant. Probably best just to put you back on ignore.....in fact, that's exactly what I intend to do.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignatz View Post
Not that I needed any more posts from you to confirm this, but once again you are being deliberately obtuse. It's obvious and blatant. Probably best just to put you back on ignore.....in fact, that's exactly what I intend to do.
I am willing to entertain that I am missing it. But its hardly deliberately obtuse to call fantasy numbers fantasy, and building an argument on someone's fantasy numbers insanity.

Now when you say I am being deliberately obtuse, you mean that I am deliberately missing things ?

Well desirable purples are up near the billion inf mark again, my global channels are filled with people that want to trade purple to purple, and as I write this it looks like half the forum front page is people that want to trade off market.

Or for another example when Uber says he has confidence in the inf, just what percentage of his total wealth is it that he has inf ? My guess is its even less than mine, and he spends nearly as fast as he makes it. So when he says he has confidence in the inf, that would be "not very much confidence at all"

 

Posted

That would be the "fantasy scenario" where your alleged rebuttal started off with "taking the scenario presented" ?

This is like talking to Spinal Tap.

"Well, we don't literally say it. We don't literally mean it. But that message should be clear anyway."

Quote:
is it that most people don't want quality builds but there are all these IOs being traded every day any way ?
Positron's Blast outsells Ragnarok by, what, a hundred to one? At least? Let's say a typical set of Posi has gone from 30 million to 40 million. Let's say a typical set of Ragnarok has gone from, I don't know, 700 million to 3 billion. Feel free to look up some numbers, I'm sick of mentioning Devastation and having you go "look! an obvious distraction!". And let's say Posi outsells Ragnarok by 100 to 1.

So 100 sets of Posi plus one set of Ragnarok, 3.7 trillion, has become 100 sets of Posi plus one set of Ragnarok, 7 trillion.

That's not even 100% inflation, there. Although people who like Ragnarok might complain.

And, of course, Air Bursts and Detonations are selling even better than Positron's and the price really hasn't changed much on those. But cheap builds are below your notice.

Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.

So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
My wild-donkey guess is that while we certainly have inflation, we either don't have "hyper" inflation across the whole market or only have it at the low end 300%+ per year definition.
Also (and as I'm sure you know), the details of real-world definitions of hyper-inflation are of debatable value here, anyway. CoX is a sealed universe. Other countries aren't refusing to take our devalued Inf for their goods. Financial institutions are not pulling out all their investments. We have no national debt to service.

What really matters for the health of an MMO is 'can new players come into the game and gain access in a reasonable timeframe to shinies appropriate to the amount of effort they expend?' At the moment, I would say the answer is still yes.

Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.

 

Posted

I definitely agree. Other posters mentioned it quite a bit earlier - our inf earning power has gone up dramatically. Since we do that by "printing" new inf, that's actually also the source of inflation, but if earnings track inflation, there's not really a problem. (Edit: as others have said... up to the point where the 2B inf cap starts to affect too many goods, at which point we get a bread line problem.)

Now, I don't think earnings have tracked prices across level ranges. I think the bulk of the increase in earning power is concentrated in the hands of end-game characters. This increases the dependence of low-level characters on using the market to gain money to obtain goods. Now, to be fair, this has always been the case, but I believe the game changes we identify as inflation causing have served to widen the gap. Is this a problem? My opinion on it is that it could be improved on. Doing so would take a fairly dramatic flattening of the inf reward rates for defeats, missions, etc. between levels 1 and 50, however. This would also necessitate a repricing of things like SOs and common recipes. Whether that's worth the effort, I have no real idea. I basically think it would be nice to have.

Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
Yeah, I'm not sure how the point was so thoroughly missed there.

The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grouchybeast View Post
Also (and as I'm sure you know), the details of real-world definitions of hyper-inflation are of debatable value here, anyway. CoX is a sealed universe. Other countries aren't refusing to take our devalued Inf for their goods. Financial institutions are not pulling out all their investments. We have no national debt to service.

What really matters for the health of an MMO is 'can new players come into the game and gain access in a reasonable timeframe to shinies appropriate to the amount of effort they expend?' At the moment, I would say the answer is still yes.
Quoted for excellent clarity and succinctness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
I definitely agree. Other posters mentioned it quite a bit earlier - our inf earning power has gone up dramatically. Since we do that by "printing" new inf, that's actually also the source of inflation, but if earnings track inflation, there's not really a problem. (Edit: as others have said... up to the point where the 2B inf cap starts to affect too many goods, at which point we get a bread line problem.)

Now, I don't think earnings have tracked prices across level ranges. I think the bulk of the increase in earning power is concentrated in the hands of end-game characters. This increases the dependence of low-level characters on using the market to gain money to obtain goods. Now, to be fair, this has always been the case, but I believe the game changes we identify as inflation causing have served to widen the gap. Is this a problem? My opinion on it is that it could be improved on. Doing so would take a fairly dramatic flattening of the inf reward rates for defeats, missions, etc. between levels 1 and 50, however. This would also necessitate a repricing of things like SOs and common recipes. Whether that's worth the effort, I have no real idea. I basically think it would be nice to have.
Yeah, I believe that the scarcity of supply at the low-mid level range is a far more pressing problem from a design perspective than inflation. As a practical matter, it means that IO builds are basically reserved for 50ish characters, even when the players in question could theoretically afford those builds sooner.

The supply crunch in those level ranges isn't new, though. It's been with us basically from the beginning, and only correlates with inflation to the extent that the characters with the highest capacity to print new money are the same characters who only generate high-level recipes.

Unsurprisingly, more of the inflation has concentrated in low-supply areas, like the low-mid level range. Anyone can cherry-pick a listing that's blown up (and especially a crafted-IO listing): the question is at what price comparable enhancements are available, not what the worst possible price is.

I can't give definitive statistics to prove that the market's inflation has been rather kind to most desirable IOs, relative to the inflation in earning power. My evidence is anecdotal, but to my mind it's also self-evident. It doesn't take an exhaustive statistical analysis to realize that LoTGs (which used to be ~60-70 million and are now in the 150-200 million range) haven't inflated nearly as much as purples (which used to be ~40-50 million and are now in the 400-500+ range). Sets like Crushing Impact usually aren't even worth the time it takes for me to sell them, these days. Earning uniques like Numina and Miracle requires a mere ~2 hours of play time spread out over 4 days even for the most obstinate market hater. An 80/20 build with four or five LoTG procs that would have given most people pause is now achievable within a couple of weeks even if you have zero influence to start.

And even if you don't marketeer.

All of this talk about the numerical definitions of hyperinflation is at best irrelevant, and at worst wantonly contrarian. Hyperinflation is a loaded term that implies widespread economic sorrow, or at the very least a deep and urgent problem. Even leaving aside the obvious emotional pitfalls of comparing RL problems with video game problems, the analogy implicit in the use of the term doesn't hold up for a multitude of reasons. The game's economy is fundamentally different, and not just because pixellated super heroes can't starve.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze View Post
Nice build

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
That would be the "fantasy scenario" where your alleged rebuttal started off with "taking the scenario presented" ?
To show the flaws in the Goldilocks scenario ? Absolutely.

I wouldn't be here in good faith if I wasn't willing to take what people say as true at face value and ask what are the implications.

Uber said "Here I just made some crap up about the market, I redefined what inflation means, and here using this random concept it doesn't look anything like inflation"

I said "Well using your numbers if I wanted to put together a build it doesn't look so good"


Quote:
Positron's Blast outsells Ragnarok by, what, a hundred to one? At least? Let's say a typical set of Posi has gone from 30 million to 40 million. Let's say a typical set of Ragnarok has gone from, I don't know, 700 million to 3 billion. Feel free to look up some numbers, I'm sick of mentioning Devastation and having you go "look! an obvious distraction!". And let's say Posi outsells Ragnarok by 100 to 1.
I have no idea what the sales ratios but in this thread I haven't inserted wild guesses and asked anyone to believe them. You have.

When you did present data, it actually jibed well with 300%+ inflation over three years.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grouchybeast View Post
What really matters for the health of an MMO is 'can new players come into the game and gain access in a reasonable timeframe to shinies appropriate to the amount of effort they expend?' At the moment, I would say the answer is still yes.
Whether or not hyper inflation is a problem for an MMO is an entirely different topic. The majority of the people that talk about the problem aspect usually do so in the following form "No we don't have hyper inflation and it isn't a problem"

I happen to like our inflation situation. I like that it isn't uniform. Its benefitted me quite a bit. Is it a problem for the game ? Maybe but thats not my problem.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obitus View Post
All of this talk about the numerical definitions of hyperinflation is at best irrelevant, and at worst wantonly contrarian. Hyperinflation is a loaded term that implies widespread economic sorrow, or at the very least a deep and urgent problem. Even leaving aside the obvious emotional pitfalls of comparing RL problems with video game problems, the analogy implicit in the use of the term doesn't hold up for a multitude of reasons. The game's economy is fundamentally different, and not just because pixellated super heroes can't starve.
I think that sums up my feelings on the matter nicely.

Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
Uber said "Here I just made some crap up about the market, I redefined what inflation means, and here using this random concept it doesn't look anything like inflation"

I said "Well using your numbers if I wanted to put together a build it doesn't look so good"
You may have meant that, but you didn't actually say that, or anything like that. You threw in a chunk of stuff in CODE tags and didn't explain it. Pardon my failure to read your mind.


Quote:
I have no idea what the sales ratios but in this thread I haven't inserted wild guesses and asked anyone to believe them. You have.

When you did present data, it actually jibed well with 300%+ inflation over three years.
... Even the part where Devastations went down by a factor of 4?
... even the part where a 3 million inf piece of salvage was still a 3 million inf piece of salvage several years later?

Here's a sales ratio point: I buy, craft and sell a particular Positron's Blast at around 10 a day. Every time I see the last 5 sales on the "buy" side none of them are mine. Every time I see the last 5 sales on the "sell" side- depending on price rigidity, it is generally visible that only one of them COULD be mine. I check a couple times a day. We have as a LOWER BOUND 28 data points per day from this: the 5 recipes and 4 sales each time I look (18 total) and the 10 I actually sell. It can be no lower than 28 sales. Let's say, since I don't check during peak hours, that I see half the sales and the other half happen when the servers go yellow. I think I'm seeing more like 1/3, but let's be conservative here. 28*2 = 56 a day.

From a prior experiment ("let's see me lose money trying to own a market niche again!"), there were roughly as many of a certain IO (I think a Mako's pool B) placed on the market at level 50 as there were from level 30 to 49, inclusive. I see no reason to doubt this ratio in the rest of the game. 56*2 = 112.

Here's a prediction: I did 15 minutes of work on this post. I predict you will spend less than 2 minutes either rebutting it with a very brief answer, or will completely ignore it like the Devastation data point.

I know, I know, you have all these OTHER people to answer, because for some reason you're the only one on your side of the argument. You're a busy guy.

Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.

So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.

 

Posted

Ah, the joys of seeing people you have on ignore through the posts of others.

Since I've been accused of my tables post "redefining what inflation means", let's see if we're all talking about the same things.

I'm open to other more authoritative sources for a definition of "inflation", but here's a handy one from Wikipedia

Quote:
In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
I quote: "general level of prices".

So what's the "general level of prices" in our economic system? If we want a concept of "general level of prices", should we consider the price of something that, say, we sold 1 of with equal weight to something we sold 1000 of in the same time period in the same economy? If the 1000 items cost 2x as much and the 1 item costs 100x as much, how much did the "general level of prices" change?

By the way, I never, ever said there wasn't inflation. In fact, I took pains to say several times that I thought there is inflation. What I gave was an example showing why that question of whether there's hyperinflation (for whatever worth there is in determining that) is not as easy as it might appear to be simply focusing on price increases comparatively low-volume items, which includes not only purples, but also some low-level recipes which are extremely common (and low price) at high levels.

Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
I know, I know, you have all these OTHER people to answer, because for some reason you're the only one on your side of the argument.
I've been there before, but never in defense of a thoroughly debunked idealogical stand.

AF's taken some historic thrashings on this forum, but this could be the most sustained beating of his career.

The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Thumbs up to the Goat for the Fremont Troll picture.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
You may have meant that, but you didn't actually say that, or anything like that. You threw in a chunk of stuff in CODE tags and didn't explain it. Pardon my failure to read your mind.
Sorry you didn't get it.



Quote:
... Even the part where Devastations went down by a factor of 4?
... even the part where a 3 million inf piece of salvage was still a 3 million inf piece of salvage several years later?
So ? Would you argue that inflation isn't occurring because electronics prices have been in decline for the last 40 years ?

Good for you, you found 2 things in a market that has 900+ recipes over 40 levels, over 100 pieces of invention salvage and I have no idea how many specialty IOs, that didn't increase.


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Here's a sales ratio point: I buy, craft and sell a particular Positron's Blast at around 10 a day. Every time I see the last 5 sales on the "buy" side none of them are mine. Every time I see the last 5 sales on the "sell" side- depending on price rigidity, it is generally visible that only one of them COULD be mine. I check a couple times a day. We have as a LOWER BOUND 28 data points per day from this: the 5 recipes and 4 sales each time I look (18 total) and the 10 I actually sell. It can be no lower than 28 sales. Let's say, since I don't check during peak hours, that I see half the sales and the other half happen when the servers go yellow. I think I'm seeing more like 1/3, but let's be conservative here. 28*2 = 56 a day.

From a prior experiment ("let's see me lose money trying to own a market niche again!"), there were roughly as many of a certain IO (I think a Mako's pool B) placed on the market at level 50 as there were from level 30 to 49, inclusive. I see no reason to doubt this ratio in the rest of the game. 56*2 = 112.
Lets take your positron and to make life easy and even more in your favor make it 75. I like to deal in a few purple sets on any given day there will be at least 5 of these moving.

Thats a 15/1 ratio, not your hundreds or thousands to 1 ratio you talk about.


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Here's a prediction: I did 15 minutes of work on this post. I predict you will spend less than 2 minutes either rebutting it with a very brief answer, or will completely ignore it like the Devastation data point.
You win that prediction. Its real easy to find the flaws in these posts.

Let me ask you this. If on the nightly news, all of sudden the housing figures, automotive sales and major appliances were removed from the inflation figures because these were the priciest things you would purchase and produce tunnel vision, how would you react to that ? Lets say after that with the new figures in place, it was determined there was no problem for the poor with rising prices because federal subsidies to the poor actually made it cheaper for them to live than it was in the past.

If you wouldn't buy that kind of B.S. on the news why are you pushing it here ?

Heck sorry maybe you would buy into that.

 

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If on the nightly news, all of sudden the housing figures, automotive sales and major appliances were removed from the inflation figures because these were the priciest things you would purchase and produce tunnel vision, how would you react to that ?
What if they took out the yachts, racehorses and six-figure jewelry instead?

Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.

So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.

 

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Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
Let me ask you this. If on the nightly news, all of sudden the housing figures, automotive sales and major appliances were removed from the inflation figures because these were the priciest things you would purchase and produce tunnel vision, how would you react to that ? Lets say after that with the new figures in place, it was determined there was no problem for the poor with rising prices because federal subsidies to the poor actually made it cheaper for them to live than it was in the past.
If you can point to a plausible RL example of hyperinflation wherein:
  1. The general populace is responsible for printing all the new currency that's inflating the market;
  2. Everyone in the general populace has equal capacity to produce any good any of any kind;
  3. Everyone in the general populace has equal capacity to sell/trade those goods for the inflated rate;
  4. And the everyday staples required for functional existence are both price-capped and in infinite supply,

Then we can discuss the appropriateness of the term hyperinflation, in-game, through the lens of RL. When you were just banging the numerical definition drum, you were on much firmer ground; many of us thought you were missing the point -- that the term has alarming RL connotations and that therefore it's inappropriate to use the term here -- but at least you had a superficially valid argument about hyperinflation in CoH.

The moment you introduce RL comparisons, though, you must acknowledge that COH's little closed market is fundamentally different -- largely immune to the worst problems traditionally associated with inflation.

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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze View Post
Nice build

 

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Originally Posted by Obitus View Post
If you can point to a plausible RL example of hyperinflation wherein:
  1. The general populace is responsible for printing all the new currency that's inflating the market;
  2. Everyone in the general populace has equal capacity to produce any good any of any kind;
  3. Everyone in the general populace has equal capacity to sell/trade those goods for the inflated rate;
  4. And the everyday staples required for functional existence are both price-capped and in infinite supply,

Then we can discuss the appropriateness of the term hyperinflation, in-game, through the lens of RL. When you were just banging the numerical definition drum, you were on much firmer ground; many of us thought you were missing the point -- that the term has alarming RL connotations and that therefore it's inappropriate to use the term here -- but at least you had a superficially valid argument about hyperinflation in CoH.

The moment you introduce RL comparisons, though, you must acknowledge that COH's little closed market is fundamentally different -- largely immune to the worst problems traditionally associated with inflation.
I am sorry you missed that I was commenting on the quality of arguments being presented. The obsessive need of the people taking the no hyper inflation side to say "We don't have hyper inflation, and there are no problems from it"

I am also boggled at how you missed many pages of my making the distinction between the two.

 

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Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
I am sorry you missed that I was commenting on the quality of arguments being presented. The obsessive need of the people taking the no hyper inflation side to say "We don't have hyper inflation, and there are no problems from it"

I am also boggled at how you missed many pages of my making the distinction between the two.
What I didn't miss was your insistent and obviously incorrect assertion that people were arguing that there isn't any inflation, even when the very words you quote say exactly the opposite.

Because the term hyperinflation has various and far-reaching RL implications, it is not factually incorrect to say both that we have inflation -- even extremely high inflation -- and that it isn't hyperinflation. You are free to disagree on that point, but your obsessively contrarian behavior in this thread on which you claim not even to have a strong viewpoint suggests to me that your purpose here isn't simply that you have a kind of detached, academician's preference for sound argumentation.

Quite the opposite, in fact. You dance back and forth, picking little nuggets of other posters' arguments (real or imagined), deflecting and distracting from even direct questions posed to you. And as above, when all else fails, insult people's intelligence.

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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze View Post
Nice build

 

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Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
The obsessive need of the people taking the no hyper inflation side to say "We don't have hyper inflation, and there are no problems from it"
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
I don't know about how near or far we may be from [market collapse]. I doubt anyone with a player level access to the market could actually say.
If player level access to the market doesn't qualify anyone to claim we're near market collapse, then I don't think player level access gives anyone enough information to claim there is hyperinflation.

@Rylas

Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.