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So, inflation should only be determined off of the prices of very rare items? Not the market as a whole? |
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
No worse than basing arguments on the price of undesired items that are available in infinite quantity.
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I'm not even anywhere near "expert knowledge" of the inner workings of the market, but really, if I can make it work for me, anyone can make it work. If you're hung up on the prices of purples and PVP IOs, then go out and farm for them through the methods available. It's really not that hard. Or, do you simply prefer the dig-your-heels-in-the-ground-and-pout method?
@Rylas
Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.
Again, hyperinflation suggests that we cannot trust the value of our currency to such an extent that we feel it's worthless. It's been mentioned that we can trust the value of inf to decline, and based on what we know of current and predicted changes in our ability to defeat foes, I agree with that. But there is a difference in expecting the value to inf to fall due to inflation and expecting our inf to rapidly become worthless.
We can't ignore the real world relationships here. The whole point of why people care about defining hyperinflation is because, in the real world, salaries and other earnings do not generally react quickly to hyperinflation. If the price of bread doubles every week, but so does your salary and your returns on investments, then there's not much of a problem. It's when the price of bread doubles every week and your salary doesn't change that there's a serious issue.
Market prices have been on the rise because player non-market income has been on the rise due to steady and long-term increase in our combat effectiveness, the reward given by our foes, or both, and not all those means of producing inf faster translate directly into producing recipes faster. Increasing the amount of money tossed at the market faster than the amount of stuff the money is buying yields price inflation.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Just to clarify the conversation seeing as it looks like you missed it.|
Originally Posted by Rylas
So, inflation should only be determined off of the prices of very rare items? Not the market as a whole?
I'm not even anywhere near "expert knowledge" of the inner workings of the market, but really, if I can make it work for me, anyone can make it work. If you're hung up on the prices of purples and PVP IOs, then go out and farm for them through the methods available. It's really not that hard. Or, do you simply prefer the dig-your-heels-in-the-ground-and-pout method? |
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First of all, there are clear cut segments where there isn't (and can't be) *any* inflation at all, nevermind hyperinflation. These include the obvious TO/DO/SOs, tier 1 inspirations, and even common IO recipes. Zero inflation at all. |
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Originally Posted by Aura_Familia  Purple set are MEANT to be rare. Basing whether their is or isn't hyperinflation based on their prices (and RMT for christ's sake) is a seriously flawed argument. |
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Originally Posted by Another Fan No worse than basing arguments on the price of undesired items that are available in infinite quantity. |
This is especially true with the argument Four Speed is trying to push. Because seeing as you can now buy off level enhancements with tickets, he isn't even correct about the price of those being static.
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FWIW the accounting definition of hyper inflation is 100% inflation over a period of three years.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
Again, hyperinflation suggests that we cannot trust the value of our currency to such an extent that we feel it's worthless. It's been mentioned that we can trust the value of inf to decline, and based on what we know of current and predicted changes in our ability to defeat foes, I agree with that. But there is a difference in expecting the value to inf to fall due to inflation and expecting our inf to rapidly become worthless.
We can't ignore the real world relationships here. The whole point of why people care about defining hyperinflation is because, in the real world, salaries and other earnings do not generally react quickly to hyperinflation. If the price of bread doubles every week, but so does your salary and your returns on investments, then there's not much of a problem. It's when the price of bread doubles every week and your salary doesn't change that there's a serious issue. Market prices have been on the rise because player non-market income has been on the rise due to steady and long-term increase in our combat effectiveness, the reward given by our foes, or both, and not all those means of producing inf faster translate directly into producing recipes faster. Increasing the amount of money tossed at the market faster than the amount of stuff the money is buying yields price inflation. |
Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany and Brazil weren't cases of just hyper inflation they were cases of severe hyper inflation.
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The only reason you'd want to use that definition is if your characters had to report their incomes and needed to follow U.S. GAAP. FASB acknowledges that it's an arbitrary number. Also, the Wiki entry that Graystar linked is wrong in that IASB doesn't use a set amount, but lists possible criteria that can indicate hyperinflation. And, as I said in my initial post, many of those criteria simply cannot exist in CoH's economy.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
FWIW the accounting definition of hyper inflation is 100% inflation over a period of three years.
Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany and Brazil weren't cases of just hyper inflation they were cases of severe hyper inflation. |
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I used that number because its something that can be measured. The other factors, lack of confidence in the currency, use of stable currencies we have, but we have no way to measure them.
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Originally Posted by Intrinsic
The only reason you'd want to use that definition is if your characters had to report their incomes and needed to follow U.S. GAAP. FASB acknowledges that it's an arbitrary number. Also, the Wiki entry that Graystar linked is wrong in that IASB doesn't use a set amount, but lists possible criteria that can indicate hyperinflation. And, as I said in my initial post, many of those criteria simply cannot exist in CoH's economy.
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Oh no, I caught the conversation. The OP seemed to focus his whole argument for hyperinflation on Rare and Desirable market items, while ignoring the whole market. Then FourSpeed makes an argument on TO/DO/SO items, as well as common IOs and other desirable items that have gone down on the market. THEN, you come in talking about the absurdity of bringing up TO/DO/SO items while ignoring the fallacy of the OPs statement and the validity of FourSpeeds other points. |
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Just to clarify the conversation seeing as it looks like you missed it.
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At this point, the only reasonable conclusion of your post and the accusatory tone it took would suggest that you support the OP's claim that inflation has indeed reach "hyper" proportions. Maybe I'm wrong, but you've done nothing to say otherwise and seem to be under the impression that FourSpeed has some kind of agenda to deceive others on the market in order to maintain some massive cover up.
@Rylas
Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.
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Ummm...|
Originally Posted by graystar_blaster
And i also agree inflation in game is 10,000%
but what im suggesting is that inflation is now about 100% a year or more. |
Hmmm..
Ummm....
Wha?!
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Crushing impacts used to go for 2-5 mil now they are regularly going for 10+
Definition of hyperinflation cumulative inflation of 100% or more over three years.
Reactive armors have more than tripled in cost, for awhile various pieces were going for 40-50 mil, thunderstrikes and doctored wounds are all double or better.
Decimations ,positrons blast, touch of death, makos bite sets are all also up 300% or more.
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People are paying 10million but they aren't actually being listed for that:|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Crushing impacts used to go for 2-5 mil now they are regularly going for 10+
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http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...67&postcount=2
Prices on the market tend to be somewhat sticky, people bid within the last 5 without even trying to bid creep.
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Originally Posted by Adeon Hawkwood
People are paying 10million but they aren't actually being listed for that:
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...67&postcount=2 Prices on the market tend to be somewhat sticky, people bid within the last 5 without even trying to bid creep. |
Very true, but it begs the question what where they being listed for when they were selling for 5 million ?
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My guess would be about the same, somewhere in the 2-4 million range. Salvage prices for a level 50 Crushing Impact haven't changed much compared to pre-AE prices and now (they did go up during the worst of the AE exploits due to lack of supply but before and after that they were down at vendor trash levels). My general experience is that if you want to sell an enhancement listing much above 80% of the "expected sale price" means it takes to long to sell and given the total costs listing anywhere below 2 million is not worth the time (assuming the recipe is less than 1million, it's been a while since I did much with crushing impacts so I don't know the current prices).
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Very true, but it begs the question what where they being listed for when they were selling for 5 million ?
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Another data point:
Rare Level 50 Invention Components (e.g., Hamidon Goo) tend to be very stable in their price. All of them.Some goods haven't changed in cost. Others have become more sought after (higher demand) for external reasons, e.g., with more Level 50s in existence, Level 50 loot and 'high-end' goods become scarce, which drives up price. That's not inflation, that supply-and-demand.
2 years ago, they were hovering about 1 million.
Now, 3 million.
That's 200% inflation in 2 years. Far from hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation comes from 'printing money' even though there was no commensurate growth in 'gross domestic product.' That devalues the currency.
In CoH, players print money, not a central bank. But players also produce an X amount of value (in tradeable loot). The Inf they produce is relative to the value they produce. As 'money gets printed' the 'gross domestic product' also increases because players are also the manufacturers of the economy.
If players are getting more Inf than producing goods, then inflation is to be expected. But because the two are in a constant ratio to each other, *HYPER*inflation is nearly impossible unless players go crazy thinking that there might be a 'run on the bank' and their inf would 'be no good no more!'
The introduction of Alignment Merits and Incarnate crafting should help put a slow down to any current inflationary urges. The first changes inf into goods, reducing inflation. The second simply destroys inf while producing non-tradeable goods.
Of course, attacking inflation by reducing individual wealth will be seen as a hardship and roundly denounced as much as inflation is. But prices won't come down until you reduce the inf in peoples pockets. And who willingly accepts that?
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I'm just going to call straight up shenanigans on this right now. I checked CI enhancements just now and all level 50 CI's are selling within 2-5 million. So if you're more-than-likely made up number of what they "used to go for" is true, then there's been no inflation what-so-ever. |
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Crushing impacts used to go for 2-5 mil now they are regularly going for 10+
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Unless lvl 50 Doctored Wounds only sold for 2-3 million (which leaves little room for profit), they haven't doubled. The only one worth mention is Heal/Recharge at an average 15 million. Seeing as most people are concered with heal and recharge for heal powers, that's not exactly surprising.
Thunderstrikes (all 6 at lvl 50) are between 3-5 million.
Touch of Death is going for 20-50 on most of the lvl 40s. Last time I bothered getting a set, I believe the pricing history was actually a little more than that.
I'd check all the others, but at this point, it's pretty obvious you're not basing anything you've said on facts.
@Rylas
Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.
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There are several crushing impacts sold for 10 to 20 million in the levels 30~33. I think that's hardly an intelligent marker for inflation given the recent change in focus towards high level content. Anyway, a lot of the price trends I see people talk about here are not totally incorrect, they're just too isolated to describe larger market trends.
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Originally Posted by Rylas
I'm just going to call straight up shenanigans on this right now. I checked CI enhancements just now and all level 50 CI's are selling within 2-5 million. So if you're more-than-likely made up number of what they "used to go for" is true, then there's been no inflation what-so-ever.
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Hmm, I checked one of the CI Triples at multiple levels, and saw a consistent 3-5 million range. I'll post pics in the morning when I have PS to help me splice them into one image.
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Originally Posted by Dersk
There are several crushing impacts sold for 10 to 20 million in the levels 30~33. I think that's hardly an intelligent marker for inflation given the recent change in focus towards high level content. Anyway, a lot of the price trends I see people talk about here are not totally incorrect, they're just too isolated to describe larger market trends.
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@Rylas
Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.
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Originally Posted by Rylas
Hmm, I checked one of the CI Triples at multiple levels, and saw a consistent 3-5 million range. I'll post pics in the morning when I have PS to help me splice them into one image.
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http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showthread.php?t=252634
Perhaps I set that up a week in advance for just this moment, and everyone in that thread is actually my sockpuppet.
And this image was really generated by me.
Your screenshot would prove everything you said in this topic was wrong if the last 5 sales on such a high volume item at any given point meant anything ; thankfully for you it doesn't, so you just look merely misguided.
That said, with 30 bidding and 564 for sale, we can see there's a vast stack of CIs that just doesn't sell, which implies prices were higher before, or that even the current lowest price (which is at most 5M) is over what it's really worth.
I buy all my CIs as recipes for 100k so as far as I'm concerned, everyone in this topic is coconuts.
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Yeah, and in any case, sets like Crushing Impact have inflated by an insignificant amount in comparison with players' earning power. |
Originally Posted by Nihilii
Your screenshot would prove everything you said in this topic was wrong if the last 5 sales on such a high volume item at any given point meant anything ; thankfully for you it doesn't, so you just look merely misguided.
That said, with 30 bidding and 564 for sale, we can see there's a vast stack of CIs that just doesn't sell, which implies prices were higher before, or that even the current lowest price (which is at most 5M) is over what it's really worth. I buy all my CIs as recipes for 100k so as far as I'm concerned, everyone in this topic is coconuts. |
As noted previously, ~50 million per day is basically guaranteed if you spend half an hour a day running Tips, on one character. Based on the OP's premise, 50 million was a lot of money a few years ago.
Now as before, that 50 million is enough to buy several sets of Crushing Impact (or similar). Proportional increases are useful when measuring inflation, but they're only relevant to the extent that the increase is numerically significant. Even if Crushing Impact (and the like) had gone up 300% (which they haven't in my experience), 300% of a very small number is still a small number when earning power has gone up for the average player by a factor of five or more.
Likewise, even the highly desirable Rare proc enhancements (Luck of the Gambler, Miracle, Numina) haven't risen so much in price that they outpace earning power. Yes, they're more expensive on average than they used to be, but in comparison with the ~70 million you might have paid before, the ~200 million you'll have to pay now is actually less valuable. Nevermind that Alignment Merits give you quick access to those previously-thought-to-be-high-end items without even touching the market.
So again, we clearly have inflation. No one's disputed that. The question is whether that inflation is a widespread problem, and that's pretty clearly not the case -- not yet anyway. Happily, the effect of inflation seems to be drawn disproportionately to the highest of high-end items (purples, PvP IOs) as if by a magnet. In the meanwhile, wages continue to keep the pace, which is in stark contrast with what happens in the real world when massive inflation hits an economy.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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So let me get this straight.|
Originally Posted by Obitus
Yeah, and in any case, sets like Crushing Impact have inflated by an insignificant amount in comparison with players' earning power.
As noted previously, ~50 million per day is basically guaranteed if you spend half an hour a day running Tips, on one character. Based on the OP's premise, 50 million was a lot of money a few years ago. Now as before, that 50 million is enough to buy several sets of Crushing Impact (or similar). Proportional increases are useful when measuring inflation, but they're only relevant to the extent that the increase is numerically significant. Even if Crushing Impact (and the like) had gone up 300% (which they haven't in my experience), 300% of a very small number is still a small number when earning power has gone up for the average player by a factor of five or more. Likewise, even the highly desirable Rare proc enhancements (Luck of the Gambler, Miracle, Numina) haven't risen so much in price that they outpace earning power. Yes, they're more expensive on average than they used to be, but in comparison with the ~70 million you might have paid before, the ~200 million you'll have to pay now is actually less valuable. Nevermind that Alignment Merits give you quick access to those previously-thought-to-be-high-end items without even touching the market. So again, we clearly have inflation. No one's disputed that. The question is whether that inflation is a widespread problem, and that's pretty clearly not the case -- not yet anyway. Happily, the effect of inflation seems to be drawn disproportionately to the highest of high-end items (purples, PvP IOs) as if by a magnet. In the meanwhile, wages continue to keep the pace, which is in stark contrast with what happens in the real world when massive inflation hits an economy. |
People are making more, and spending more for the things they buy and that isn't inflation for you or nihilii
Then you wave it away as being problem because some people are earning more ? You based your statement that earning power has indeed kept up on anything but wishful thinking ? People may have the option of running tips, but just what percentage are doing so, or even want to ?
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The existence of inflation has never been in question. In the very post you quote I acknowledge inflation.|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
So let me get this straight.
People are making more, and spending more for the things they buy and that isn't inflation for you or nihilii |
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| Then you wave it away as being problem because some people are earning more ? You based your statement that earning power has indeed kept up on anything but wishful thinking ? People may have the option of running tips, but just what percentage are doing so, or even want to ? |
Even if people do not run tips, they can sell the items you think are so disastrously inflated for mondo cash - and then use that cash to buy a comparatively larger quantity (relative to a few years ago) of the almost-as-good stuff that comprises a high-performance build. We are not talking about a situation where some higher authority prints money and uses it for its own ends -- effectively stealing money from the citizenry. We're talking about a situation where everyone makes more.
The side effect is that some things are more expensive. That's only a problem for you if you banked large sums of influence a long time ago and then sat on your hands. For the game, from a design perspective? Not really a pressing issue, at least until we start to hit the influence cap (which would crash the market's supply).
Perhaps this discussion would be more productive (to the extent that any conversation here is productive) if you'd reveal why you think the inflation we've seen thus far is a widespread problem.
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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Sorry this is the same thread where people are trotting out SO enhancements and saying there is no inflation ? The same thread with people saying you shouldn't consider segments of the market when you talk about inflation. So while you may not think it was in question other people certainly did.|
Originally Posted by Obitus
The existence of inflation has never been in question.
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| Even if people do not run tips, they can sell the items you think are so disastrously inflated for mondo cash - and then use that cash to buy a comparatively larger quantity (relative to a few years ago) of the almost-as-good stuff that comprises a high-performance build. We are not talking about a situation where some higher authority prints money and uses it for its own ends -- effectively stealing money from the citizenry. We're talking about a situation where everyone makes more. |
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| Perhaps this discussion would be more productive (to the extent that any conversation here is productive) if you'd reveal why you think the inflation we've seen thus far is a widespread problem. |
While I have about 70 billion inf stored, I have over 200 billion in IOs stored. Every 1% rise in the overall price of things nets me 1.3 billion inf for doing nothing
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You were responding to me, and you criticized me specifically (and Nihili) by saying the following (and I quote):|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
Sorry this is the same thread where people are trotting out SO enhancements and saying there is no inflation ? The same thread with people saying you shouldn't consider segments of the market when you talk about inflation. So while you may not think it was in question other people certainly did.
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"People are making more, and spending more for the things they buy and that isn't inflation for you or nihilii"
It is not my responsibility to defend one small segment of another person's post, but I think the point Fourspeed was making was that the staple, bare-minimum items in our game economy have not inflated (comparable to milk or bread or whatever), and thus the hyperinflation analogy is misleading, or at least unjustifiably alarmist. Regardless, we don't need SOs/TOs/DOs (or any other fixed-price, infinite-supply item) to make the case that earning power has grown more than -- or at the very least, as much as -- the price for most items on the market.
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| I feel inflation is disastrous ? I am glad you know how I feel because I certainly didn't know I felt that way. |
That is why I asked you to clarify, because frankly it remains unclear what your purpose or indeed your position really is.
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| While I have about 70 billion inf stored, I have over 200 billion in IOs stored. Every 1% rise in the overall price of things nets me 1.3 billion inf for doing nothing |
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Originally Posted by Iggy_Kamakaze
Nice build
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Thanks for the image that reveals no one is spending more than 3.5 million for that CI enhancement. We're you trying to prove hyperinflation with that image?|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
And this image was really generated by me.
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I have some images, too. They're not very helpful for you're argument either.
Notice that the doubled pricing you swore by doesn't seem to be showing up. Some of the higher levels ones we're all sold within the same day, while the lower level ones date back by a couple of weeks in some places. While some people may be willing to spend 10 million, many don't. And if the 2-5 million you quoted from 3 years ago is even accurate, then this shows nothing close to hyperinflation.
@Rylas
Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.
I don't think you can call it hyperinflation since our earning power has risen at the same time. A-merits have added a real nice way to earn influ and rewards and not force major changes on a persons playstyle.