hyperinflation


Adeon Hawkwood

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
Yes, but you hardly need my numbers

Cut and paste fullmens hero list into a text file

Save

Load into excel as a fixed width format

You now have all your rows and columns set up.

Pull up the market interface with the /auctionhouse command and fill in the column for now at your leisure.
I wanted to see your numbers because you're the one making the claim of an average of 2,000,000 + now. The addition of the plus makes it sound to me like you are pulling the number out of Ascendents base.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggis View Post
I wanted to see your numbers because you're the one making the claim of an average of 2,000,000 + now. The addition of the plus makes it sound to me like you are pulling the number out of Ascendents base.
This is really something you should do for yourself then. Its easy enough, took me about 3 minutes while waiting around for NPCS to get killed. Any way the reason for the + was I rounded down, there should have been a - after 700,000 as that was rounded up.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
This is really something you should do for yourself then. Its easy enough, took me about 3 minutes while waiting around for NPCS to get killed. Any way the reason for the + was I rounded down, there should have been a - after 700,000 as that was rounded up.
Lol, burden of proof mate. You provided the averages you should provide the sorce of those numbers.

And I'm not at home at the moment, so it's not easy at all.


 

Posted

there were a few periods of time where rare salvage of all flavors cost 500k-1.2m. That was during an ae exploit period. "Normal" prices for rares, post ae, range from 800k to 2 million. Pre ae costs were 500k-800k for tech and 3-5m for arcane.

Currently we are at an elevated cost period following dbl xp, and the incarnate content is skewing salvage generation and inf earnings.


I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
You still have that magic ability to miss everything that doesn't support your position
You still have the ability to neglect the majority of the market (i.e. the overwhelming number of CIs selling for 2-5 million compared to your small margin in the 30-33 level range).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggis
Lol, burden of proof mate. You provided the averages you should provide the sorce of those numbers.
While usually I would agree, the Claimer has the burden of proof, I'd prefer to see numbers provided by someone more trustworthy. Someone whose been tunnel-visioning only those things that cost more in certain ranges, isn't someone I think who will provide reliable, non-biased numbers.


@Rylas

Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggis View Post
Lol, burden of proof mate. You provided the averages you should provide the sorce of those numbers.

And I'm not at home at the moment, so it's not easy at all.
Well you are at a computer so the 700,000 is something you can check easily enough.


And I assume you will get home, so you will be able to check easily. What do my numbers do for you ?

I mean if you think I am making them up or pulling them out of ascendants base as you say will my putting up a list change your mind at all ?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lohenien View Post
there were a few periods of time where rare salvage of all flavors cost 500k-1.2m. That was during an ae exploit period. "Normal" prices for rares, post ae, range from 800k to 2 million. Pre ae costs were 500k-800k for tech and 3-5m for arcane.

Currently we are at an elevated cost period following dbl xp, and the incarnate content is skewing salvage generation and inf earnings.

Fullmens list disagrees with you. 2007 is pre AE.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
Impossible! A_F clearly has proven that hyperinflation is taking place. That would mean Pangeans have to sell for 6-9 million now! Clearly, your findings are fabricated.

/sarcasm

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
You still have the ability to neglect the majority of the market (i.e. the overwhelming number of CIs selling for 2-5 million compared to your small margin in the 30-33 level range).

You really aren't good at that whole J'accuse thing.

Quote:
While usually I would agree, the Claimer has the burden of proof, I'd prefer to see numbers provided by someone more trustworthy. Someone whose been tunnel-visioning only those things that cost more in certain ranges, isn't someone I think who will provide reliable, non-biased numbers.
Normally its always best for people to check these out for themselves but in cases like yours its well worth it to make it blindingly clear

Code:
                                                 2007         2011
 RLT     Alien Blood Sample                  20,000.00    23,000.00
RMA     Black Blood of the Earth           144,000.00 3,700,000.00
RLT     Complex Chemical Formula            20,000.00    20,000.00
RMA     Deific Weapon                    2,900,000.00 3,250,000.00
RHA     Diamond                             62,000.00 3,600,000.00
RMA     Empowered Sigil                  1,840,000.00 4,000,000.00
RMA     Enchanted Impervium              1,890,000.00 3,300,000.00
RLT     Enriched Plutonium                  17,000.00    10,000.00
RHA     Essence of the Furies            1,200,000.00 3,400,000.00
RHA     Hamidon Goo                      1,680,000.00 3,200,000.00
RLT     Heads Up Display                    26,000.00    21,000.00
RMT     Holographic Memory                  22,000.00 3,200,000.00
RMT     Impervium                           32,000.00 3,400,000.00
RLA     Lament Box                          47,000.00   800,000.00
RHA     Magical Conspiracy               1,250,000.00 3,400,000.00
RMT     Military Cybernetics                54,000.00 4,000,000.00
RMA     Mu Vestment                        990,000.00 3,150,000.00
RMT     Mutating Genome                     14,000.00 3,000,000.00
RLA     Page from the MAlleus Mu            22,000.00   500,000.00
RHA     Pangean Soil                     3,100,000.00 3,500,000.00
RHT     Positronic Matrix                    4,200.00 3,600,000.00
RHT     Photonic Weapon                     32,000.00 3,300,000.00
RLT     Plasma Capacitor                    20,000.00    20,000.00
RHA     Prophecy                         3,400,000.00 3,400,000.00
RLA     Psionic Manifestation               16,000.00    10,000.00
RLA     Psionically Charged Bras            22,000.00    40,000.00
RMT     Reactive Gas                        14,000.00 3,500,000.00
RMA     Soul Trapped Gem                 1,360,000.00 3,300,000.00
RLT     Source Code                         20,000.00     4,000.00
RLA     Strand of Fate                      66,000.00    15,000.00
RLA     Sybmiotic Armor                     40,000.00     4,600.00


 

Posted

Cheers. Looking at that it looks like the prices have stabilised. Supply and demand. More people using IO sets, more people buying NAO. Makes sense to me.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
You really aren't good at that whole J'accuse thing.
If you care to explain how only levels 30-33 negate the remaining levels CI's are available at, then you might actually have a point there.

Quote:
Normally its always best for people to check these out for themselves but in cases like yours its well worth it to make it blindingly clear
While Rare Salvage has gone up (not that I'll trust [right or wrong] numbers you throw out) it's not enough to say the entire market has hyper-inflated. So, until all items on the market (and don't worry, we'll throw out TOs/DOs/SOs and any other item available from an inf-oriented-vendor) have been taken into account, with amount of transactions taking place (after all, purples don't sell the same number of items as common and uncommon items). Seeing as how you can't access the number of transactions taking place on the market to find the average amount of influence being moved around, there's no way to determine if the amount of inflation is as severe as you'd have everyone believe.


@Rylas

Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggis View Post
Cheers. Looking at that it looks like the prices have stabilised. Supply and demand. More people using IO sets, more people buying NAO. Makes sense to me.
If you don't mind me asking what makes you say that ?

Prices and supply still look like they are all over the place. I was really expecting the weekly task forces to crater high level rare salvage pricing, and that turned out to be completely wrong. Was also expecting purple prices to take a bigger dip than they did.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
If you care to explain how only levels 30-33 negate the remaining levels CI's are available at, then you might actually have a point there.

Look I listed 5 or 6 items that had gone through large price increases. Of those items one had just suffered a price collapse. You picked the one item that collapsed. Of that one item at the time you picked your exemplars there were many that were completely unavailable.

Everything on the market goes through swings from high to low. If you are going to compare, you have to compare high to high, low to low. If you compare Low to High or High to Low its not going to tell you much about the price trend.


Quote:
While Rare Salvage has gone up (not that I'll trust [right or wrong] numbers you throw out) it's not enough to say the entire market has hyper-inflated. So, until all items on the market (and don't worry, we'll throw out TOs/DOs/SOs and any other item available from an inf-oriented-vendor) have been taken into account, with amount of transactions taking place (after all, purples don't sell the same number of items as common and uncommon items). Seeing as how you can't access the number of transactions taking place on the market to find the average amount of influence being moved around, there's no way to determine if the amount of inflation is as severe as you'd have everyone believe.
So your position now is "If you can't know everything about the market you can't say anything about it ?"


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
Was also expecting purple prices to take a bigger dip than they did.
I think a lot of people did. But with all the level 50s generating influence much faster than they generate purples, I don't think it's that surprising.

The other side of that (and this can only be conjecture) is that some of the mentality behind the new Alpha content has driven players to max out their toon as best they can. For some people, having purples is the way to do that. It's also going to allow for faster PL situations, allowing more people to get to 50 faster, and wanting more purples.


@Rylas

Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
Look I listed 5 or 6 items that had gone through large price increases. Of those items one had just suffered a price collapse. You picked the one item that collapsed. Of that one item at the time you picked your exemplars there were many that were completely unavailable.

Everything on the market goes through swings from high to low. If you are going to compare, you have to compare high to high, low to low. If you compare Low to High or High to Low its not going to tell you much about the price trend.
Ok, so 30-34 is high. But 36-50 is not. 5 levels out of 21 does not represent hyperinflation across the board.

Quote:
So your position now is "If you can't know everything about the market you can't say anything about it ?"
I'd say my position is more one of "If you can't know everything about the market, you can't make absolute statements about the market." Saying, "The market has hyperinflation across the board" would be an absolute statement. You can say today's price for this group of items is such-and-such more/less than it was before, but the market on-the-whole won't fit into a such a claim with the limited amount of data available to take from it.


@Rylas

Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
Ok, so 30-34 is high. But 36-50 is not. 5 levels out of 21 does not represent hyperinflation across the board.



I'd say my position is more one of "If you can't know everything about the market, you can't make absolute statements about the market." Saying, "The market has hyperinflation across the board" would be an absolute statement. You can say today's price for this group of items is such-and-such more/less than it was before, but the market on-the-whole won't fit into a such a claim with the limited amount of data available to take from it.

I made two statements in this thread. I count on the inf to be worth less as time passes and the claim that that the inflation rate exceeds the minimum condition (26% compounded annually) for hyper inflation. Perfect knowledge isn't required for either one of those. If it is you might want to take it up with BLS.

I also made the observation that talking about off market fixed price items is not relevant to any conversation about inflation.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
Fullmens list disagrees with you. 2007 is pre AE.

So some tech stuff was even cheaper than I remembered - it WAS 4 years ago....


I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.

 

Posted

Random other factoid - and I don't have precise measurements for this:

Steadfast and Karma KB's went from 2-3 million in 2007 to 10 million, to 20 million, then with AE they went back to 10 million and (Before this last 2XP) level 30 Karmas were down around 2 million again.

I only pick this specific cherry because this is the only IO that I think is "NEEDED" by anyone. You can play the entire game with SO's, but if you're a squishy you will spend 40% of it falling down or getting up, unless you take an entire travel path (I hate superjump) or you buy one of those.

I've always believed that most of the inflation is happening in the luxury market [level 37 Ruin Acc/Dam/Rech and level 37 Thunderstrike Acc/Dam/Rech IO's haven't moved that much in my experience] and this is a data point that supports that belief.


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@Boltcutter in game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
I made two statements in this thread. I count on the inf to be worth less as time passes and the claim that that the inflation rate exceeds the minimum condition (26% compounded annually) for hyper inflation. Perfect knowledge isn't required for either one of those. If it is you might want to take it up with BLS.
Perfect knowledge may not be needed, but more data than you'll ever have access to is. For inflation to be accurately determined, you'd need to know the average amount of inf spent per transaction. There's no way for you to quantify that, so anything you say aside from "There is inflation" is talking out your ***. At best, you can say rarer items have greatly inflated in value while more accessible items have remained at a steady rate of increase or stayed the same.

Quote:
I also made the observation that talking about off market fixed price items is not relevant to any conversation about inflation.
Why is this even worth mentioning anymore? No one has argued that they are.


@Rylas

Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Another_Fan View Post
I've got nothing to add to the conversation. I just wanted say that those low ball transactions in these histories were one of my fishers snagging 'em. Patience for the wins.


Teams are the number one killer of soloists.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SerialBeggar View Post
I've got nothing to add to the conversation. I just wanted say that those low ball transactions in these histories were one of my fishers snagging 'em. Patience for the wins.
Bids 156,790...


Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rylas View Post
The other side of that (and this can only be conjecture) is that some of the mentality behind the new Alpha content has driven players to max out their toon as best they can. For some people, having purples is the way to do that. It's also going to allow for faster PL situations, allowing more people to get to 50 faster, and wanting more purples.
I think also that for some people, it's given a point to playing their 50s, and a point to buying purple recipes at all. Other IOs can be slotted from lower levels, but purples can only be slotted at 50, and so for the people who tend to shelve their 50s and roll a new character they're fairly pointless. Now the characters are progressing again, those people have a reason to look at purples for their builds.


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Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.

 

Posted

I don't see how common or rare salvage still go that high! Its like half the folks paying those crazy prices have never experienced the AE. I never pay for rare salvage and yes its crazy how you can make a cool 100 mil nowadays just with about 6 steadfast KB IO's.


 

Posted

As I recall, part of the real-life business of defining and measuring inflation is defining a basket of goods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_basket

Of course, different people buy different stuff, in real life as well as the game. I found this FAQ interesting. Actually, this one might be more fun to read. It has pictures.

I wonder if we could develop some kind of CoH market basket?


Avatar: "Cheeky Jack O Lantern" by dimarie

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lohenien View Post
So some tech stuff was even cheaper than I remembered - it WAS 4 years ago....
That may have been before the devs changed Council (and I think a couple of other groups) from "all tech" to "50:50 tech/arcane" salvage. Before that, you couldn't give rare tech salvage away, after that the tech and arcane rare salvage markets got much closer.

I suspect there are 2 reasons rare salvage overall is up since a year or so ago, one is the ability of AMs to generate specific recipes people want, which they then go to the market to buy salvage for. Thus a higher ratio of recipes to salvage then before.

The second is with fewer recipe niches in the market to flip, again thanks to AMs which dropped prices on some recipes that previously were expensive because of extremely short supply, some market flippers moved to flipping salvage. While I agree with the market folks who say flipping can't drive prices up past the top of an equilibrium range, 4M may not be past the top of that equilibrium, and I could also see that range slowly shifting as people have more Inf to spend on salvage (AMs to save on pricy recipes, not spending 200M on a LotG buys a lot of salvage) and expectations of "reasonable" rare salvage prices creep up.