The Latest from Tony (Oct. 4th)
By
Angelxman81,
Posted on: 2012-10-05 09:09 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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Just wanted to make sure she understood.
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Originally Posted by Xzero45
Yo, dude, put the guns down. She actually apologized.
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Please buff Ice Control.
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Now you're just being a pancake.|
Originally Posted by DarkCurrent
So you knew the closure was going to be announced Aug 31? That the I24 development was just NCSoft pissing money down the drain?
When did you post this knowledge? And what is the evidence of which you speak? Please confirm my ignorance. |
The fact that I knew the game could be closed at any time, and in fact was on its last legs, doesn't mean that I had some Kreskin-like ability to know what the precise date was.
And I'll point out that every active MMO is undergoing continuous development. That means that when the closure of an MMO is announced, there are always features and updates being worked on, and plans well into the future. If those things weren't true, it'd be complete negligence on the part of the developer team.
As for posting this knowledge, there's no point of doing so. Shouting 'the game is dying' on the forums runs the risk of being a self-fulfilling prophecy. And besides, there were people doing that already (pretty much since launch).
Here is the evidence of the lack of growth you asked for: http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx
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In a world of "Save our game" you shouldn't be an outward jerk when someone calls you on holding the "why bother" flag. I understand your arguments logically. But please, don't lump this entire forum into some crowd you want to condemn just because people don't share your view.
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Originally Posted by Brillig
There's that incredible CoH community again! Not sure why anyone wants to save it... I really have no clue why NCSoft won't hold substantive discussions with them...
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Oy.|
Originally Posted by Nalrok_AthZim
In a world of "Save our game" you shouldn't be an outward jerk when someone calls you on holding the "why bother" flag. I understand your arguments logically. But please, don't lump this entire forum into some crowd you want to condemn just because people don't share your view.
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Again.
I'm not saying "Why bother."
I'm saying "You're doing it wrong."
I'm saying "TonyV is a bad standard bearer if you want to negotiate with NCSoft."
I'm saying "If you want to negotiate with NCSoft, have a better story than: 'a few people are really upset!'"
And the fact that you think I'm the jerk here just goes to prove how narrow-minded this "community" is. If the community doesn't want to be lumped in to one category, maybe they should stop acting like a cult.
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They never made any attempt to find out if he had $100M of funding behind him from investors, that is not making a reasonable effort, a couple of emails would have cost nothing.|
Originally Posted by Brillig
Go ahead. Prove that NCSoft made no effort.
Waiting. Waiting. Yeah. I already told you why "one enquiry confirmed from a small studio" doesn't constitue a serious discussion. Unless your name is Gabe Newell or Bill Gates, you'd better have your financial backers and business plan lined up before you're considered serious. |
The problem with this sort of thing is that it's all done behind closed doors and with NDAs, so nobody can know for sure, but there are rumours of very substantial sums having been offered by a well known MMO developer.
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And I note that nothing you said makes CoH significantly profitable. I like how you ignored that part. |
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| That's not an investment. Go learn what an investment is, eh? If you buy arcade tokens for your local arcade and they close, you didn't invest in them. You purchased a virtual currency. You paid for a service. You may have a case to get a refund for services not provided, but that's not an investment. |
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| Direct quote from TonyV http://www.cohtitan.com/forum/index....c,5437.0.html: |
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I'm saying "TonyV is a bad standard bearer if you want to negotiate with NCSoft." I'm saying "If you want to negotiate with NCSoft, have a better story than: 'a few people are really upset!'" |
It's true. This game is NOT rocket surgery. - BillZBubba
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It really doesn't matter what you intended. It wasn't an investment (other than perhaps an emotional one.|
Originally Posted by Minotaur
It is an investment of sorts, I put my money into NCSoft to get back something more valuable (to me) at a later date. While this is conventionally more money, it isn't in this case, I bought the points to pump my second account up the "veteran" levels with the intention of using the points to buy stuff at sale prices later meaning I was going to get more for my money later, having the same effect as making it grow.
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| This I don't fully understand as the only reverse engineering I see going on is in 2 parts, one thread which is basically "what bits can we legally take that aren't owned by NCSoft" like some of the fonts, and a possible attempt to archive the costume pieces (which can be done by screenshotting rather than PIGG diving) with the intention of making their own graphics rather than using the NCSoft ones, but trying to cover a lot of the same ground and using them as an aide-memoire. I don't know if you count their program to export the characters as reverse engineering, I can't make up my mind about that. |
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| And you assume Titan wants to negociate with NCSoft. They don't really, and are as I said NOT looking to buy it themselves (although that may have been the case in the early days). The goal is to persuade NCSoft to sell it by a variety of creative but legal means, but preferably to some people who know what they're doing and can hit the ground running. |
If they stopped development or new items added to market, or we had some months without new issues or news about it, servers merged at some point...
We could see the closure coming...
But a serious company doesnt announce the shut down of a MMO 10 days after releasing its latest powerset.
Nature affinity was added to the store on August 21...
We had I24, Superpacks #2 (this alone would made a lot of money), tons of new powersets on the way, and costume sets too.
Dont come and tell us u saw it coming, Brillig... Not even the devs saw it.
Im not buying that, same way Im not even close to buy that NCSoft "exahusted all options"... UBER BS.
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Ok, so WoW is going to close at some point.|
Originally Posted by Brillig
Now you're just being a pancake.
The fact that I knew the game could be closed at any time, and in fact was on its last legs, doesn't mean that I had some Kreskin-like ability to know what the precise date was. And I'll point out that every active MMO is undergoing continuous development. That means that when the closure of an MMO is announced, there are always features and updates being worked on, and plans well into the future. If those things weren't true, it'd be complete negligence on the part of the developer team. As for posting this knowledge, there's no point of doing so. Shouting 'the game is dying' on the forums runs the risk of being a self-fulfilling prophecy. And besides, there were people doing that already (pretty much since launch). Here is the evidence of the lack of growth you asked for: http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx |
GW2 is going to close at some point.
And when those announcements come in the future I can claim to be as prescient as you. And I can tell their respective communities to just accept that it was going to happen and they should have known better.
And here's my evidence when it happens:
http://investor.activision.com/events.cfm
http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx#none
Please buff Ice Control.
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Maybe you should wait to make those predictions until those properties aren't making massive amounts of money.|
Originally Posted by DarkCurrent
Ok, so WoW is going to close at some point.
GW2 is going to close at some point. And when those announcements come in the future I can claim to be as prescient as you. And I can tell their respective communities to just accept that it was going to happen and they should have known better. And here's my evidence when it happens: http://investor.activision.com/events.cfm http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx#none |
Wait until WoW has under 100,000 subscribers and stays there for two years.
Wait until Blizzard goes two years with no new products or expansions.
Then you can make that kind of a prediction.
Or you can do it now and be a pancake.
ça m'est égal.
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I haven't read the second page of this thread yet, but this is one beautiful, well-reasoned post. Thanks, Minotaur!
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Originally Posted by Minotaur
Brillig, please stop trolling these threads with dubious facts at best.
1. NCSoft made no effort to find out whether a number of the efforts to rescue the game were serious. Titan haven't made an effort to buy it out themselves because they wanted Paragon to have a go which occurred and some negociations did happen. Information (due to NDAs) is very scant but several other bids from consortia and studios are rumored, only one enquiry confirmed from a small studio that didn't even get a reply. 2. CoH must have been profitable purely on the basis that in the announcement of the closure there was no mention of disappointment with its performance or unprofitability, which there was with AA and TR. It may not have been very profitable, but if it wasn't profitable, they'd have said so. Anecdotal evidence of profitability only although has been confirmed off the record by Paragon people. Do you think Paragon would have tried to take it on if it wasn't profitable ? 3. The community has invested. It was mentioned a LONG time ago that purchasing over and above the subs = new content. People who bought costume packs pre-freedom invested, and people who bought points as I did and had 6K unused have invested in the game and not got a return. 4. Tony has always said reverse engineering is illegal and they weren't going to do it. Certainly private servers are not on the Titan agenda. I don't see really what Titan has done so far other than mobilising the media and protesting against the closure to comprise the "anything else" that you think they've done badly. The only other thing going on is an attempt to make their own game which will use no NCSoft code or IP. |
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I am sorry but the forumites could never accept bad news of any kind. I post a chart of the games revenue back in June and had people say "Declining sales so what"|
Originally Posted by Angelxman81
If they stopped development or new items added to market, or we had some months without new issues or news about it, servers merged at some point...
We could see the closure coming... But a serious company doesnt announce the shut down of a MMO 10 days after releasing its latest powerset. Nature affinity was added to the store on August 21... We had I24, Superpacks #2 (this alone would made a lot of money), tons of new powersets on the way, and costume sets too. Dont come and tell us u saw it coming, Brillig... Not even the devs saw it. Im not buying that, same way Im not even close to buy that NCSoft "exahusted all options"... UBER BS. |
The so what was you can't expect a company to ramp up investment in a project and not get a return.
What is amazing is NCsoft's behavior. People posting on the internet are one thing a company that has millions sunk in a property is another. They had years to step in and fix things, instead they let their property decay. Then when things got too bad for them instead of renovating they paved over.
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Other than their word, we can't really prove that they did make an effort though either. And following the original announcement which was scant on details and caught most of us off guard, it's hard to have faith that their PR is entirely truthful.
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Originally Posted by Brillig
Go ahead. Prove that NCSoft made no effort.
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I personally am at a complete loss as to why they didn't just nuke Paragon Studios and set the game into maintenance mode. Hardly any costs, just free money until everyone goes away. Then the game could be shut down without massive outcry or loss of profit.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
I am sorry but the forumites could never accept bad news of any kind. I post a chart of the games revenue back in June and had people say "Declining sales so what"
The so what was you can't expect a company to ramp up investment in a project and not get a return. What is amazing is NCsoft's behavior. People posting on the internet are one thing a company that has millions sunk in a property is another. They had years to step in and fix things, instead they let their property decay. Then when things got too bad for them instead of renovating they paved over. |
Doom.
Yep.
This is really doom.
Brillig, ya'know, it's so late in the game that at this point, I think the lines have been drawn and people are out doing whatever it is they're going to do about all of this. I'm not gonna lie, I'm one of SaveCoH's biggest fan boys and yet I'm still kind of impressed in a way, because for the past month I think you may have worked just as hard to condemn our efforts as we've worked to save City of Heroes. You may believe in the points you're making--or at least I hope you do, because you're not getting any of this time back without a time machine--but what does all of this effort serve? Even where you've been right, your greatest accomplishment has been embroiling people in bickering matches on an Internet forum.
You actually seem awfully smart and you're snappy with your arguments, and my biggest regret in reading this thread is that you didn't decide early on to get involved and try to affect some change, if you feel this certain that you had much better ideas; and that's not sarcasm--I assure you, Tony would have listened and considered things in earnest, and if you think otherwise, you don't know much about Tony. I'm sure we can all agree that some better ideas would have been desirable, if it might have meant better results for City of Heroes. We didn't try everything that we could have tried, certainly. In some ways we weren't ambitious enough, I'm sure. And we were overly ambitious in areas where it worked against us. But I didn't see you trying to construct a framework around which better ideas could have been built. I've only seen you focus on cutting the legs out from beneath an effort that someone else took the time to build. That is why we haven't listened to you. It wasn't because we were so pigheaded, it was because an overzealous leader was bound to be more effective than various armchair generals who didn't seem to want to DO anything.
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This is one part I can't get behind. Remember this chart I did ...| At this point, I feel that I have to point out that this profit from City of Heroes is part of what has made NCsoft's other titles such as Aion and Guild Wars 2 possible by funding their development. Hopefully you can understand the anger and disappointment we felt when a mere three days after Guild Wars 2 launched--a game that our money funded--NCsoft in essence kicked us to the curb and has now repeatedly denied us the basic dignity of continuing to exist as a community. While the money we have invested may not give us any legal standing from an ownership perspective, I believe that it does put an ethical onus on NCsoft to do whatever it can to allow the game to remain active. |
This shows the total revenue of both CoH (blue) and GW (red) over the previous four quarters. Think of it as a running yearly revenue for each game. This way seasonal variations tend to be dampened out and you can see an overall trend. The thing is Guild Wars had still earned over it's lifespan up the Q2 2012 around $15 million dollars more than CoH in roughly a year's less time.
This was done without monthly subscriptions, falling back on a traditional PC gaming model that Blizzard North and several other companies had used in the late 90s and early 00s. Release a game, release expansions that require the original game or combo editions containing both, take the revenues generated and develop the next game.
The last GW expansion was in 2007. GW2 was announced in 2007. That's what the majority of their devs had been doing all that time while the majority of our devs cranked out content upgrades every few months over that same time.
Yes they were probably running deficits over the last couple of years but they already banked a lot more revenue than we had and showed that their game could earn a lot more in a shorter period of time. Companies like to see that kind of quick return.
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They can write off a massive loss of profit to make the quarter's numbers look better, and appearance is all that stockholders care about.
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Originally Posted by Angry_Citizen
I personally am at a complete loss as to why they didn't just nuke Paragon Studios and set the game into maintenance mode. Hardly any costs, just free money until everyone goes away. Then the game could be shut down without massive outcry or loss of profit.
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Uh, no, it is not, actually. In fact, IP law specifically calls out reverse engineering as a Fair Use exception.|
Originally Posted by Brillig
Yeah. Reverse engineering is illegal.
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If you obtained the client in a legitimate fashion, it's perfectly legal. And you can get the client software for CoH legitimately in a number of ways.
It may violate the EULA, and expose you to potential lawsuit for contractual breach, but that doesn't affect the legality of reverse engineering.
Things would be a bit more complex if the client software had DRM or other copy protection, as the DMCA would then kick in and that has much more restrictive terms on reverse engineering. But since the client does not, it is freely copyable without restrictions, the DMCA clauses affecting the subject do not apply.
-np
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Yes and no. There are (at least in the EU) some *very* specific conditions that you have to meet to justify reverse engineering software. If you don't meet these requirements, you can be sunk.|
Originally Posted by NinjaPirate
Uh, no, it is not, actually. In fact, IP law specifically calls out reverse engineering as a Fair Use exception.
If you obtained the client in a legitimate fashion, it's perfectly legal. And you can get the client software for CoH legitimately in a number of ways. It may violate the EULA, and expose you to potential lawsuit for contractual breach, but that doesn't affect the legality of reverse engineering. Things would be a bit more complex if the client software had DRM or other copy protection, as the DMCA would then kick in and that has much more restrictive terms on reverse engineering. But since the client does not, it is freely copyable without restrictions, the DMCA clauses affecting the subject do not apply. -np |
Wikipedia. I am not entirely sure about what it is in the US, but I would imagine that there are similar limitations in place (even if not exactly, that at least a "clean room" procedure is used). Google Vs Oracle is a notable recent court case where the "reverse engineering is illegal" came into play, and once again it is *how* you go about it all that is most important.
This is why I am saying that it is and isn't illegal. It all depends on how you go about it. The general *concept* isn't necessary illegal, but to make sure that it isn't you have to be *very careful* about how you do it.
for me, it would put it down as "trying to work out the contents of a black box". You can work from the inputs and out puts of the box, but you are not allowed to look inside the box to see actually *how* it does this (this is an example of "clean room").
Side note: Computer software is also covered by copyright law as well.
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Article 6 of the 1991 EU Computer Programs Directive allows reverse engineering for the purposes of interoperability, but prohibits it for the purposes of creating a competing product, and also prohibits the public release of information obtained through reverse engineering of software.[24][25][26] In 2009, the EU Computer Program Directive was superseded and the directive now states:[27] (15) The unauthorised reproduction, translation, adaptation or transformation of the form of the code in which a copy of a computer program has been made available constitutes an infringement of the exclusive rights of the author. Nevertheless, circumstances may exist when such a reproduction of the code and translation of its form are indispensable to obtain the necessary infor*mation to achieve the interoperability of an indepen*dently created program with other programs. It has therefore to be considered that, in these limited circum*stances only, performance of the acts of reproduction and translation by or on behalf of a person having a right to use a copy of the program is legitimate and compatible with fair practice and must therefore be deemed not to require the authorisation of the right*holder. An objective of this exception is to make it possible to connect all components of a computer system, including those of different manufacturers, so that they can work together. Such an exception to the author's exclusive rights may not be used in a way which prejudices the legitimate interests of the rightholder or which conflicts with a normal exploitation of the program. |
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In the case of computer programs, the EU directive states (11) that the ideas and principles underlying a program are not protected by copyright, and that (12) logic, algorithms and programming languages may to some extent comprise ideas and principles. Analysis of the function of a program (but not decompilation (13))is permitted under Article 5.3, if it is carried out by a licensed user in the normal use of the program. Reverse engineering is allowed under Article 6, but only for the single purpose of producing an interoperable program (rather than a competing program). For this purpose, in addition to reverse engineering itself (i.e. producing a high level version of the code) subsequent forward engineering to produce the interoperable program is permitted. However, the reverse engineer has to cross a host of formidable barriers before he can make use of this right;
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Yeah it been posted once again, it can't hurt to post this again.
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Depends on how we define 'serious' and who may have actually been looking. I read Mercedes Lackey's requirements for investing over at Titan, and I start seeing seven-eight figure numbers in my head. We're talking major serious money. Its not just buying the IP, there's a metric buttload of legalese and other obligations to cover, and then you have to finance migrating City from NCSoft to the new publisher. New servers, new market, replacement staff, etc. And remember that all of this is for a game that may never see $10 million annual in revenues again.|
Originally Posted by Minotaur
1. NCSoft made no effort to find out whether a number of the efforts to rescue the game were serious. Titan haven't made an effort to buy it out themselves because they wanted Paragon to have a go which occurred and some negociations did happen. Information (due to NDAs) is very scant but several other bids from consortia and studios are rumored, only one enquiry confirmed from a small studio that didn't even get a reply.
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Our best hope has always been to get someone like GamersFirst to take a flyer on Paragon, but as of now that disappointingly doesn't seem to be the case. :/
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I'm glad I stopped by this weekend to catch up on some news. Enjoy that spotlight, Brillig. You deserve it. |
Originally Posted by Nalrok_AthZim
In a world of "Save our game" you shouldn't be an outward jerk when someone calls you on holding the "why bother" flag. I understand your arguments logically. But please, don't lump this entire forum into some crowd you want to condemn just because people don't share your view.
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That same crap you gave me when I tried defending myself and here you fell into the same trap as everyone turns your words against you. "Outward jerk", indeed. ROFL
While not as optimistic as many here, I will still watch out for any news where I can back up monetarily what I feel in my heart for this game. i.e. if/when something comes out of this movement and they need some funds, I will be ready. Of course, I'm not some millionaire but if a couple hundred dollars can help toward some significant goal, it is something I'm willing to risk.
Good luck to all of you(esp TonyV, /thumbs up for your gargantuan effort) and I hope we can do something nice for the developers again.
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I won't give details because the information was sent to me under PM, but the 'small studio' that was talking to NCSoft - well, while their offer to talk may have been made in good faith, I found a number of red flags that would likely have turned NCSoft off considering it a serious offer.|
Originally Posted by SpyralPegacyon
Depends on how we define 'serious' and who may have actually been looking. I read Mercedes Lackey's requirements for investing over at Titan, and I start seeing seven-eight figure numbers in my head. We're talking major serious money. Its not just buying the IP, there's a metric buttload of legalese and other obligations to cover, and then you have to finance migrating City from NCSoft to the new publisher. New servers, new market, replacement staff, etc. And remember that all of this is for a game that may never see $10 million annual in revenues again.
Our best hope has always been to get someone like GamersFirst to take a flyer on Paragon, but as of now that disappointingly doesn't seem to be the case. :/ |
But you're right also in the costs involved. Just transfering the property over to a new owner is likely a seven-figure process, and then the new owner has to get everything set up and running? This is why the Paragon Studios folks had the best shot, as they had the inside knowledge to run the process smoothly.
I got a PM saying that you are lying about your PM...of course I won't post it out of courtesy...
See how that works...ANYONE can say they got a PM! WOOHOO!
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Originally Posted by Brillig
I won't give details because the information was sent to me under PM, but the 'small studio' that was talking to NCSoft - well, while their offer to talk may have been made in good faith, I found a number of red flags that would likely have turned NCSoft off considering it a serious offer.
But you're right also in the costs involved. Just transfering the property over to a new owner is likely a seven-figure process, and then the new owner has to get everything set up and running? This is why the Paragon Studios folks had the best shot, as they had the inside knowledge to run the process smoothly. |
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Originally Posted by Paladiamors
I love you, I Burnt the Toast!
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In what warped dimension do you imagine I care if you believe me?
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Originally Posted by I Burnt The Toast
I got a PM saying that you are lying about your PM...of course I won't post it out of courtesy...
See how that works...ANYONE can say they got a PM! WOOHOO! |
Reducing staff, rumors about the end, all would lead to one thing. Even fewer sales. In a situation like this, the most rational thing is to end things immediately once you've made the decision to end it. Letting things linger just keeps the costs running while the revenue goes to zero.
When did you post this knowledge? And what is the evidence of which you speak?
Please confirm my ignorance.
Please buff Ice Control.