Devs Haet Hoarding

Clearly, picking Incarnate powers is not the same as making our powerset power choices. It's similar, but not the same. That is a design choice, and it certainly didn't have to be designed the way it has been, but I do believe it is a reasonable design choice, and I think its a choice with far-reaching balance implications for the whole Incarnate system.

There are vastly fewer of Incarnate powers than there are powerset powers, Incarnate powers are incredibly potent, and any given Incarnate power functions the same on any character. By assigning their availability in a fixed order, the devs can more easily build iTrial content which assumes that availability.

Following that line of thinking, I believe that mapping the more-or-less linear progression through the slots map to iTrial challenges is directly related to the seemingly outrageous strength of some of the Incarnate powers. The first half of most of the Destiny abilities provide as much or more core benefit of some whole powersets. Judgement powers compare favorably with the most powerful attacks in ranged blast sets. While they last, Lore pets are frequently more damaging than many top-flight builds on damage-oriented ATs. I believe that such immense power was given to us explicitly so that the devs could be allowed to make assumptions in Incarnate content that we actually have these incredible powers available when facing later challenges. By this logic, the BAF and Lambda are the easiest, fastest iTrials to run because they may assume leagues have no Incarnate powers available.

Now, you alluded to all the above, but I don't think you covered that this mapping needs to works in reverse, as well. Indeed, considering how the reverse mapping of later Incarnate powers to earlier iTrials may be critical to understanding how the whole system fits together. Consider that we don't yet know publicly what future Incarnate slots will offer us. Genesis may offer something that makes, say, the BAF even easier than it is now. If we can use the BAF to earn iXP towards Genesis straight away, and all iXP is equal for unlocking all slots, then once we unlock Genesis we can use a Genesis-fueled BAF rampage to unlock other slots we want without facing challenges that were designed to assume access to Genesis.

Now, pehaps all iXP is not equal, and only certain iTrials unlock certain slots. In that case we need to go back and look at the forward mapping. If only certain trials provide iXP that unlocks Genesis, and if that content assumes we have and Lore and Destiny unlocked (either through hard-coded gates or content design), then the iTrials themselves are enforcing the linear slot progression on us even if the Incarnate system itself does not. On the other hand, if the content to unlock Genesis does not assume Lore or Destiny, we're back to asking why they are so strong.

I agree that there's no strict imperative that slot-to-iTrial mapping be enshrined in the progress map. The devs could let us free-form our progression, and then leave it to us to realize we perhaps need to revert back to running easier/older trials to grab some now-pivotal Incarnate power we skipper earlier because a new trial calls for it. However, I think then the iTrials we use to earn them should then be much more generic in terms of its assumptions about the Incarnate powers we are bringing to them, especially when running earlier trials to unlock later slots, which I think then translates into the strength of these powers being much less significant, because they aren't expected to be able to individually propel a league over massive mechanical challenges in later iTrials.

If I could turn that around, why shouldn't he/she have to? I don't see a strict analog between the Incarnate slots/trees and choosing primary/secondary powers. Progressing up the trees is like a multidimensional level progression path. Looking at just one dimension for a moment, just as level 49 precedes level 50, so to does Judgement precede Lore. Picking Incarnate powers obviously has some similarity to picking our powers in the 1-50 game, but it's not the same.

I grant its totally fair that you would like it to be the same, but I don't think it's inherently better, and I'm not sure that "flattening" the progress choices necessarily results in the same power balance (such as it is) that we have now.

RNG hates me when I run the Underground Trial...I've yet to receive anything above a common, I typically receive the rare table on my AoE based characters in previous trials, not so much luck in this one -_-

Fixed.

But, again, it's not pointless given the assumption of a random system as the primary reward rate. If the progress rate is predicated on average reward rates from a random reward table, then you have to assume that some people will be below average. The deterministic supplement to the random reward means that there is a limit on how far below average someone can be.

If you have good luck and never need the deterministic supplement, then that's great, and I'm sure that's part of why we can spend Astral and Empyrean merits on other goodies. But whether or not that happens is, by definition, random for this design choice.

A random supplement to predominantly deterministic progress is pure bonus. A deterministic supplement to (on average) predominantly random progress may be pure bonus, but may also serve to protect a player from unfortunate random results. The two situations are not symmetric.

Let's imagine for a moment, I have 4/5 incarnate branches and I need only one very rare component to complete the final tree. I have just finished my 23rd trial and receive a very rare component. What is my reaction? First excitement, then irritation that my efforts were undermined by the random number generator with a sigh, "I wish this would have happened sooner." But....

Oh, we've been given something to spend the excess on. Well, then let's assume you've unlocked all the pretty things and you're sitting at 4/5 again. Again randomness, undercuts the value of the determined system.

Here is the question: why do we provide a safety net to the random reward? For fairness? To reassure people that fall into the inverse gambler's fallacy? Why use a system with an inherent pitfall when a deterministic progression has no pitfall and can simulate the higher gain of "good luck" with a bit of random bonus?

Going back to that assertion that a random reward in a deterministic systerm is pointless, explain why. Even as a pure bonus, it simulates the periods of higher rewards. It's icing on the cake.

Of course, that's entirely intentional. There's a reason that 90%+ of the power of Incarnate slots comes from the rares. The Very Rares are a bonus, something to work towards. Ironically for me, I had the very rare components done before I had the rares done on my main character. She still only has two VR slots filled. I just don't see enough of a boost in power to bother with the others, although I might have enough merits/threads/salvage to do it right now.

Go back to Issue 1 through Issue 5. The strongest loot in the game came from the Hamidon raid. At the time, HOs offered significant advantages over SOs. For example, a Ribosome was worth 30% Res; 50% End Red. That's the equivalent of an even level SO and DO in two attributes. And there was no ED. Obviously by the end of 2005 there was an ED and HOs had been reduced to their current values, but there are still some HOs worth many hundreds of millions of influence because of certain advantages they have over IOs that the devs have chosen to leave in place.

Until Issue 9, hero players had exactly ONE way to earn HOs. Do the Hamidon trial with 49+ of their closest friends. After Issue 9, they had what was at the time the hardest TF in the game. Villains got the TF first, raid second. But even more, HOs are now and always have been 100% a random reward. You get what you get. Don't like what you got? Re-run the raid/TF.

That's why I'm so astounded by folks who complain about the trials so much. This is significantly better than what's come before. There's more content, less 'grinding' to get what you want, a fully deterministic path.

Likely all you'll need for later trials is every available level shift. Again, there's a reason those level shifts come at the T3 stage and not T4. If they did, I would have more sympathy with the arguments obsessed with getting a very rare in each slot.

I don't know if that much story is locked behind the trials. The story of Praetoria is told much more through solo arcs than in TFs and trials. A characters first exposure to the Coming Storm now takes place when they login for the first time into a zone destroyed by it. So, I see this as more conjecture than anything.

Yes, it's "fair" to try and enforce that bad luck not keep people too far behind.

I've already stated I don't prefer the random system. I can't tell you why they chose it. I am responding to things you're saying about how a random system should work. You seem to be combining "we shouldn't have a random system" and "here's how a random system should work".

I would argue that there are no pitfalls in a properly designed random determination system. Which I believe we have here. I think the devs only error with Incarnates was the madness of creating a system that rewards 'participation' when participation is very hard to determine given the different abilities players can bring to bear.

Random systems remove the 'grindy' feeling IMO. There's nothing more tedious than knowing exactly what you're going to get every time you do something. The chance to always get something amazing is what makes this a game and not work. It's what makes poker and blackjack and even Monopoly fun. Random chance means that a casual player can keep up and even surpass the 'hardcore' player at times. It levels the playing field more than anything.

If there were no random components given at the end of the trials, there's no reason to believe that the devs would set the deterministic path any more favorably than they do now. And then it would be immensely grindy and boring. Because you would need 5 days and 20 trials minimum to get a VR component, where now Lady Luck can favor you on your first trial.

That's a substantially better deal IMO.

To the first bolded point, I don't think it's a properly designed random path in any way shape or form. (But that's a persona view, so I won't get into that)

To the seconded bolded point, i don't think that would be immensely grindy or boring, at least not for a majority of the player base. Some players like being able to determine what they get when they get it. I'd argue most players don't find that tedious. Which is why when merits came out versus the random roll, many people praised it as they could save up their merits and get exactly what they want. It's also why many folks praised them for added a deterministic way to get purples and pvp ios.

I think you're mistaken if you think most players prefer random over the a determined path. What both you and I like has been shown repeatedly not to be the case with this playerbase on the forums. I have no dobut (but ofcourse no proof) that most players would prefer a determined path over a random one.

And in the recent ustream, when asked about whether there would be a new currency:
Posi: "That is going to depend on how much you guys are currently banking the old currency."


edit: new and improved posted with link - well down the page but the link should highlight the appearance of the word currency for you

Going to completely agree here. A random path, given my available playtime, means I'm still no further than L3 on a couple of my slots, and L1/L2 on the others.

A deterministic path would mean I could work out long I'd have before I can get X, and have a lot more fun doing it with a range of content instead of running the same old boring CRAP again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again (irritating this, isn't it? It's kinda how I feel about running those effing trials!) and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again...

What people say they like and how they actually behave can differ wildly.

Honestly, given that many of the things I've championed have been added to the game and those things have been universally hailed, I could challenge that.

However, I don't suggest that people don't like a deterministic path, only that they wouldn't like it if that was the only path. Which is exactly what people seem to be suggesting. Because we have a deterministic path now, and as I said, I don't see any way that the devs would make a solely deterministic path any faster than it is now.

Finally, I always question 'most'. That implies a majority. There's the first issue that just because a majority prefers something doesn't make it a good idea. But more to the point, none of us know whether our opinion represents the majority view. It's irrelevant in any case. I don't believe that even people who think they would like a purely deterministic system would actually be happy with such a system. I've seen how that works in practice and is isn't pretty.

Other games I've played have set gear that is 100% earned through a deterministic method. And you think we have complaining about grinding here? In that game, folks are constantly annoyed that the only thing they have to look forward to is their token to get the gear they know they are going to get. It's terrible.

Being that I was born in the year of the rat, I have no problem with this analogy and I agree!

Yeah, I can't help but think that many (though not all) people advocating a deterministic path believe one of the following:

1. They are experiencing average progress with the random system, and deterministic progress would be faster than that.
2. They are experiencing below average progress with the random system, and deterministic progress would necessarily bring them up to the average.

Point (1) seems unlikely to be true to me. Very few people making point (2) can likely claim with any accuracy whether or not their progress is above or below average.

First, hats-off to you for presenting both sides of the debate before deciding to make a point (which I took to be the section that I bolded).

So far, despite Keyes Island and the Underground being more difficult trials than the BAF and Lambda Sector, there is no advertising of that. In the game, if an unaware level 30 hero tries to talk to a higher level contact (Crimson, Maria Jenkins, Statesman, etc.), that hero is unable to obtain any missions, and often told to "come back when you've reached level X." But the current trials have nothing of that nature. There is no warning stating that it is recommended that a character have certain Incarnate abilities/level shifts/etc. before attempting any of the current trials. The same unaware hero, without any incarnate powers whatsoever, can get on any current trial without any prompt from the game that the BAF and Lambda are more suited for characters just starting their incarnate careers. Of course, player advice is always present.

Granted, perhaps that is the way the Devs want it. But if that is the case, I would say they are going to be walking a very fine line. True enough, the Devs need to continue to make more difficult trials in order to maintain the interest of the most powerful characters, i.e. the characters that have taken T3 or T4 of every available Incarnate power. But the question they have on their plates is: how do they make the content accessible to the widest demographic of players while also maintaining that challenge increase? I have no "right" answer for that.

This topic is all about the hoarding of the current incarnate components (Threads, Astral Merits, and Empyrean Merits). Indeed, I expect the Devs to introduce new salvage/rewards for the next wave of incarnate powers and/or trials. We received Threads with the newest incarnate powers just a barely over four months after Shards were introduced. It was made clear that the Devs did not want those who had been hoarding Shards to have the powers without ever having run a single trial.

We are now approaching six months since Thread introduction, and considering that Issue 21 just launched, any large content update is at least a couple months away. Combine that with the fact that we have already been informed that they hope to give the currently released powers a larger variety of trees before releasing any further powers (with Lore being the only treated power so far), one may assume we are unlikely to see the newer Incarnate powers until, at the earliest, the first quarter of 2012.

It will likely be almost a full year, if not more, between the release of incarnate powers. As I said, I fully expect to see new salvage introduced, probably with new types of iXP into which to convert it. Otherwise, the hoarders will simply be able to convert their saved up Threads/Merits to Physical and/or Psychic iXP and unlock the new powers right away. I would not be surprised if we saw some sort of requirement for future trials (i.e. requiring the Destiny Unlocked and Lore Unlocked badges). In any presentable case, there is no way to know for sure. I simply hope a change/division is made when the next wave is finally released.

Yep, you identified my point correctly. Thanks for the hat tip.

Ditto. I'm interested to see what they do here, because I do think it's a challenge to strike a balance between all these mechanical balance forces and, of course, the fickle preferences of their players.

While Keyes and Underground are definitely easier with three level shifts, both trials were tested with raid forces that included either NO level shifts at all or only a few people with level shifts.

While I'm confident that this was possible, it's inarguable that the UGT in particular contains mechanical difficulty increases not present in other trials. Specifically, every spawn contains liberal Elite Boss rank crittrers, and all the AVs are level 54+1. While that's all still almost certainly within the capabilities of a decent league with no Incarnates at all, if it is indicative of a trend, that may not always be the case for future content. I do assume that it's indicative of such a trend. If I'm right, trials we get four slots down the road may assume that we have the two after Destiny/Lore, for example. Depending on what someone looks like after they have Omega slotted, I could very much envisage content where every spawn contains one or more AVs.

A wild card in all of this is what they do in terms of additional level shifts, if any. Thoughts on that which Arcanaville wrote up some time back do lead me to believe/hope that we won't be seeing many more of them, but if that turns out to be incorrect, that alone will create a progress gate on later trials requiring at least Rare abilities that give level shifts.

Because there is nothing else that I want to buy so I have nothing to spend my merits on?

LOL my thoughts exactly. In order to get rid of hoarding make the merits expire or introduce things people want to buy.

Huh, I didn't know that! Good to know.

To clarify, I definitely think the KI and UG trials are doable without the upper tier abilities. I was more illustrating that they, being the later trials, were designed to be slightly more difficult so as to remain a challenge to those that already had high tier abilities. If future trials (particularly ones that are released with or after the next wave of abilities) are released in the same pattern, there will be a visible discrepancy between the difficulty of those later trials when compared with the early ones. And if those later trials are accessible to a beginning incarnate, they may indeed be too difficult to tackle.

EDIT: Or, what UberGuy said... haha

So true. And they were soooo frustrating - at least for me when I didn't understand what the incarnate slots were going to be providing in real benefits.

I for one anticipate a new currency, or the next slots shifting back to using shards - but at a much higher cost than Alpha.

Better than terrible is not the same thing as good.

And during the time period when that was the main method of playing and slotting characters, I did not give them money to allow me to play the game. I would like the game to be more than one step above "not worth my time and money".

It wasn't terrible. It was decent, if a bit laggy. What we have now is terrific. Different strokes and all that.

The game has been worth my time, money and dedication for the 7.34 years it has been live. If the Incarnate system is not your taste and that significantly degrades your enjoyment of the game, I would suggest that this genre of video games is not for you. Because there's no more casual friendly endgame system on the market.