How long should it take for a Very Rare to drop?

Yes I know its random based on participation and completeing the trial.

That said. I have been doing them heavily since I20 started.

I have made tier 3's in all 4 of the new incarnate powers. I have made the second tier 3's for each of the incarnates.

After making all the above I still have:
8 commons
13 uncommons
3 rares
37 threads
66 astrals
21 E merits

Not to mention 26 shards
1 Infintesellation
and 6 notices

Alpha at tier 4...for a long time.

I have lost count of the number of trials I have completed.

Yes I know 30 E merits will get me a very rare...working on that. But with the lag from the new patch...Baf's are almost undoable...unless you stay at 16 people max.

So I'll repeat my question....How long is normal for a random Very Rare to appear?

What is it % chance? 1 %? 5%?

We have not been informed of the percent chance for each of the reward tables.

With any random event, there is no 'normal' time for it to occur. If we knew the percent chance for each table, we could calculate how many trials would give you a 50% for a Very Rare or a 75% for a Very Rare. In a large enough sample, there is going to be someone who goes 100 trials or more without getting one. Meanwhile, their friend gets one every other trial.

Several people have suggested that the Incarnate trial random tables should have a 'streakbreaker' just like combat. After some number (20? 30?) of successful runs, you are forced to receive a Very Rare.

I don't know the percentages but the Random Number Generator is Random. Sometimes people get numerous lucky drops while others can go for months without ever getting one.

I'm guessing it should be around 1-10%, depending on weighting, but probably around 2.5% or 5%, so that's between 10-100 trials for a VR drop, on average, and maybe more like 20-40, on average. I do feel like there are weights added to increase chances of higher drops, including VRs, but I have no way to prove that from looking outside the black box.

If you've done 100 trials with identical leagues with identical league success, you should probably have at least 1 by now, ymmv.

One observation is that in the beginning, players ran trials differently. They were lower level (50-51, instead of 50-53), didn't have slots unlocked and slotted. They also probably fought together instead of people running way in front of the rest of the league.

It's been my observation that my fort, who has 9 VRs and 31 Rs in under 100 runs, earned most of her VRs in the early days of trials. Back then, for 1+ weeks, I was only running 1 Lam and 1 BAF per day, because I figure'd why do more if I'm missing on e-merits. Since then, I do a lot more, but have hardly received any VRs, still a decent amount of rares, though.

Don't give up hope. I got one VR my 2nd or third day (used it for T4 rebirth regen.) Then like you I entered the Uncommon Zone. Like the Twilight Zone but worse. I guess I have done 80+ runs there. I did see enough rares to complete all my Tier 3 and most of my 2nd Tier 3, including multiple T3 lore pets for evaluation.

Then Wednesday, doing my one each Trial grind to get my Emp merits I got VR (Lambda) and a R. I was completey ready and a single click got me my T4 Reactive.

SAME thing happened Thursday. VR (BAF with 17) and R
I was NOT ready for That. But I had 92 Astrals, 24 Emp, and a boatload of other stuff, but not 1 common, when I started crafting my T4 Judgement.

So just keep pluging. Take a break as needed. Some nights I just do 1 run, because for a good while now, if I can't get a trial quickly, I just go have fun. Conversly if I catch a good team I may run two or three of the same thing and call it.

T3's are plenty potent. The only T4 I am realy nuts about is the Rebirth. The T4 Reactive is GREAT, but I hear they are going to pull it's teeth.

Jak

I have gotten my 2 VRs on BAF during the 1st week of i20 going live.

dunno.. I havent gotten one yet..

I feel your pain, on the same boat.

Early this mornin. i counted 3 VR's and 8 R's. i gave up once i got all my T4's slotted and when i started i only had a T4 in my Alpha and in Interface and nuthing was slotted in Lore. Yep i went from nuthin to capped out on my Incarnate slots. but i was spending my E-merits and Astrals on Thread conversions cuse i couldnt get a uncommon or a common to drop to save my life.

I run a lvl 50 Fire/kin Troller slotted with IO's(for Def and Recharge, im runnin perma hasten and am able to use Flashfire every other mob or so in normal play). When i started the trials about 2 1/2 days ago i had nuthin slotted. So your milage may very.

One minute or never.

Basically it is random each and every time there is a drop and if the random number generator gods hate you then you won't get one until it drops.

Some people roll in multiples and others wish that could see even one.

it depends. I find ITF and LGTF drop the most for me. ITF being better than LGTF. I find some characters have got 6-8 with others have got zero which may be why I play them more.

BAF and LAMB are AWFUL PLACES for drops. I did just get one tonight but considering the amount of time spent it wasn't worth it. I found Apex and Mage awful places for drops as well.

do a kill all ITF shard run is your best bet. Pity nobody is running them unless it's the weekly.

I've gotten 2 Very Rare drop tables over the course of 20+ trials. I've gotten maybe 3-4 rare and the rest were common or uncommon.

I'd say my experience here is probably about what the average should be on getting the drop tables. There are going to be people like the OP who haven't seen the Very Rare table yet, and I'm sure there are just as many who get the Very Rare comparitively often.

Random is Random is all I can really say about it. I wouldn't worry too much about it, to be honest. You don't get THAT much more by upgrading from tier 3 to tier 4. You get the level shift at tier 3, so that's where I plan on stopping on most of my characters unless I get lucky enough to get 2 Rares and a Very Rare on the same character (and even then I will probably use them for Judgement or Interface anyway)

I've gotten only three purple drops since purple recipes appeared. Ever. On the other hand, I have one character with four VRs and I average less than one iTrial per day (some days 3-4, many days none). It's just random.