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i'm saying the motivations behind bids are unknowable and irrelevant.|
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Well, I guess if you feel that a bid for 10 inf is equivalent to a bid for 10mm inf (or even if 1mm bids for 10 inf each are equivalent to a single bid for 10mm) I should thank you, because you are really making my life easier!
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Ascribing motivation to a bid is as pointless and silly as ascribing morality to market behavior.
Is your hypothetical bid for 10 inf a clever gambit by some marketeer, or an ignorant but earnest attempt to buy something at a comically low price by an uneducated 'casual' gamer?
We can't know, and it doesn't matter. The bid is what it is.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
Quote:
Again, I disagree. I don't think that ascribing motivation to any particular bid is a fruitless exercise -- I find that it's pretty easy to determine "quality" bids v. "painting" bids. If you are looking at the marketplace as a large entity composed of millions of participants all of whom have their own motivations, you may be right. But most of the time, I find I am playing the mini-game against one or two other people. In such a case, I find it helpful to determine what they are up to. Sometimes I am even correct.|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
i'm saying the motivations behind bids are unknowable and irrelevant.
Ascribing motivation to a bid is as pointless and silly as ascribing morality to market behavior. |
On an aside, whenever someone tells me something is unknowable or ineffable, I'm gonna do my best to know it or to eff it.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Quote:
To what end?|
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Again, I disagree. I don't think that ascribing motivation to any particular bid is a fruitless exercise -- I find that it's pretty easy to determine "quality" bids v. "painting" bids.
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Even handwaving away its fundamental mystery, motivation is irrelevant.
Stuff is worth what it's worth, people will pay what they pay.
The ability of marketeers to convince others to pay too much for junk is one of the great forum myths of all time.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
During the bulk of this time, I had zero outstanding bids, so there was no demand at all, artificial or otherwise. 
Quote:
hax! =P|
Originally Posted by seebs
During the bulk of this time, I had zero outstanding bids, so there was no demand at all, artificial or otherwise.
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a totally random aside, I'm finding it much, much easier to make money in 'that other game' than here, even as a relative n00b. All the tricks that work here work even better there.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
Ultimately, the central problems remains - until the system becomes transparent, ie until buyers can see what sellers are selling thing FOR, you'll continue to get this illusionary, impatience-based "pricing". It shouldn't need stating, but remember that the prices you see are ALWAYS the price someone paid for something, NOT the price someone listed it for. Only the buyer knows what that was. It's not an open market.
If buyers could see what items were being offered and at what price, you'd see more realistic value-based prices. Unfortunately, the current system was not (apparently) designed by someone with any knowledge about genuine economy, and at this stage, it's unlikely we'll ever see such a thing here.
Where to find me after the end:
The Secret World - Arcadia - Shinzo
Rift - Faeblight - Bloodspeaker
LotRO - Gladden - Aranelion
STO - Holodeck - @Captain_Thiraas
Obviously, I don't care about NCSoft's forum rules, now.
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Agreed. Buyers convince themselves of such things, for the most part.
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
The ability of marketeers to convince others to pay too much for junk is one of the great forum myths of all time.
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Where to find me after the end:
The Secret World - Arcadia - Shinzo
Rift - Faeblight - Bloodspeaker
LotRO - Gladden - Aranelion
STO - Holodeck - @Captain_Thiraas
Obviously, I don't care about NCSoft's forum rules, now.
Quote:
It may not be fruitless in the sense that you can pull off figuring out who it is, but I'm not seeing the benefit of knowing the vast, vast majority of the time. I mean, sure, it might help sometimes, but to me it feels like the mini-game equivalent of bid creeping for uncommon L50 salvage.
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Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Again, I disagree. I don't think that ascribing motivation to any particular bid is a fruitless exercise
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Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
To the end of getting a better price and/or faster execution for either your sale or your buy.|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
To what end?
Even handwaving away its fundamental mystery, motivation is irrelevant. Stuff is worth what it's worth, people will pay what they pay. The ability of marketeers to convince others to pay too much for junk is one of the great forum myths of all time. |
True, at any given point at time there is a highest bid and a lowest offer for a given item. Sometimes that highest bid is zero (no outstanding bids) and sometimes that lowest offer is infinity (no outstanding offers). If you want to buy or sell something right now, you have no choice but to take the prices that are already in the system. If that is the case you are 100% correct.
However, if you don't want to buy or sell something right now, then trying to establish what the highest outstanding bid is (and the depth behind it) and the lowest outstanding offer is (and the depth behind it) will get you better trade action. All the information the market interface gives you (number of bids/offers, last 5 sales) is often IRRELEVANT to the only things that matter to buying and selling. Which are the highest outstanding bid and the lowest outstanding offer.
I'm with you that you can't convince others to pay more than they want to. But it isn't that hard to convince people to pay prices that they think will get them faster execution. Painting the tape (either through lowball bids or through changing the last 5 trade prices) is one way to do so.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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I agree that it's very likely they lack that detailed economic background, but I think more to the point, they don't actually care or feel that's critical.
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Originally Posted by Bloodspeaker
Unfortunately, the current system was not (apparently) designed by someone with any knowledge about genuine economy, and at this stage, it's unlikely we'll ever see such a thing here.
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Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
Ok, here's an example that has provided a fair amount for me in the past.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
It may not be fruitless in the sense that you can pull off figuring out who it is, but I'm not seeing the benefit of knowing the vast, vast majority of the time. I mean, sure, it might help sometimes, but to me it feels like the mini-game equivalent of bid creeping for uncommon L50 salvage.
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Crafted lvl 30 rare IO. 13 offered, 10 bid, last 5:
17,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000
13,500,000
15,000,000
All trades in the last 2 days.
Looks like you can make an offer at something like 10mm and be the first in line to sell, yes? And it looks like you can probably buy this for 16mm or so.
Let's take the second part first. Bid 16mm, nothing. Bid 17mm, nothing. Bid 20mm, nothing. Ok, we now know that the lowest outstanding offer is >= 20mm.
Ok, now the first part. Sell one of these at 1 inf. Boom, that's a guaranteed sale!
Now the last 5 looks like:
5,555
17,000,000
17,000,000
15,000,000
13,500,000
And now we know that the bid quality is poor. I now feel very confident in bidding on this for 1mm (or even 10,000) and for selling it around 15mm. Unless/until new orders come into the system, I will have both highest outstanding bid and lowest outstanding offer.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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OK, now it makes more sense. You care about this because you want to flip. I don't. I either want to sell what I have, or buy one. Yes, in both cases, I do care about the things you mention, but I would not generally want to buy what I want to sell, nor would I want to sell something I got as a drop for 1 inf to find the price the way you did.|
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Ok, now the first part. Sell one of these at 1 inf. Boom, that's a guaranteed sale!
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So to me, there's not much value in that knowledge, because the opportunity price of obtaining it is generally too high.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
Not necessarily. If you want to sell, then it is always useful to judge the buying interest; if you want to buy then it is useful to judge the selling interest. I would never sell a Ribosome HO for 1 inf.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
OK, now it makes more sense. You care about this because you want to flip. I don't. I either want to sell what I have, or buy one. .
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But you can generally judge if a market is better bid or better offered. If you look at a common salvage, for instance and it has:
126 bid, 1255 offered, last 5 trades:
200,000
200,000
250,000
250,000
200,000
I'm willing to bet a lot that those last 5 trades were from someone lifting the offer (someone bid an amount that was at least as high as the amount someone was selling at). Round numbers and consistent round numbers. Good buying. I'd feel pretty confident in selling something here and getting over 150,000 inf for it. But I would not feel confident in buying it at 200,000.
Now if you feel that the item is worth 500,000, I would not think you have a good chance of selling it there, but you have an excellent chance of buying it there.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Or another example, rare IO recipe, lvl 35, highly coveted
126 bidding, 2 offered, last 5 trades:
51,111,111
51,111,111
150,000,000
175,000,000
51,111,111
In this case, I would see this as something I would rather buy than sell. 3 of the last 5 sales have been to a "bidder of last resort". People have been coming in and selling at sell it nao prices. If I think this is worth around 150mm or more, then I would throw in a 55mm bid or two and if I had one to sell, I'd post it around 150mm. If I think this is worth less than 51,111,111 then I would sell it to the high bidder.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Sure, I do stuff like that all the time too. In your latter example, someone is almost certainly sweeping at 51,111,111. If I'm buying, I'm going to try buying at something like, oh, 53M. If I'm selling, I'm going to list somewhere below 150M - how close depends on how confident I am in that price. Given that history, I'm not that confident, because I know anyone with a brain and more patience than cash is going to figure they too can get a bargain, too, so my listing might sit around a good long time before other people stop undercutting it.
I also bank on player behavior being modified by circumstance. Given that example and depending on how "hot" the item is in builds, I might expect the price to be more like the top end on weekends, and maybe higher during special events.
Case in point, I haven't been able to consistently sell LotG +recharges for 200M for a while, but I listed a bunch for sale at that level this DXP weekend, and they all sold.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
One thing I don't think the current system gets enough credit for is how easy it makes interacting with the market for people who essentially want nothing to do with it. People who just want to log in and punch bad guys, and at the end of the night have an inventory full of recipes and salvage.|
Originally Posted by Bloodspeaker
If buyers could see what items were being offered and at what price, you'd see more realistic value-based prices. Unfortunately, the current system was not (apparently) designed by someone with any knowledge about genuine economy, and at this stage, it's unlikely we'll ever see such a thing here.
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Those people can walk into the market, throw everything up for 5 inf, and walk away, and over time they will make a perfectly reasonable amount of inf. Not as good as it could be, sure, but plenty good enough to build a decent character.
There aren't many systems that can deliver that while at the same time providing a market minigame for people who want to play it, and I think it's pretty cool.
Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.
Quote:
Somewhere there is a quote along the lines of "You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others." I think it is a Barnum or Mencken attribution.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
Given that history, I'm not that confident, because I know anyone with a brain and more patience than cash is going to figure they too can get a bargain, too, so my listing might sit around a good long time before other people stop undercutting it.
. |
If not then you heard it here first! You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others.
Edit: um, reverse that underestimating to overestimating and see Kosmos' post below!
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Quote:
Agreed, well stated GB!
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Originally Posted by Grouchybeast
There aren't many systems that can deliver that while at the same time providing a market minigame for people who want to play it, and I think it's pretty cool. |
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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And I still lmao whenever you try and trot out this dribble. I often wonder if you are just that dense and really believe that, or if you are just trying to confuse those who've seen the market can be rigged into thinking it cant ?| I'm not sure how anyone could interact with the market for any length of time and come to any other conclusion. Head injury maybe? |
Perhaps part of your inability to either market effectively or understand whats going on, is you often look at low cost stuff that a LOT of players dont care if they drop 100 on it or 100,000. Or 100,000 vs 1,000,000. They dont want to dink around with bid creeping, just want to get their goods and get on with the crafting, get on with playing.
However I KNOW that most players once you pass a certain threshold of value, will almost always bid creep.
Once you hit that threshold there is little inconsistency. If there's a marketeer in the niche, its often obvious. Sometimes there's a couple. Still obvious.
For crying out loud most of you all have made it your business to tell everyone how its done, what bid format identifies yourselves, and otherwise brag extensively about your monetary conquests. Am I to understand you've had ZERO influence on the prices of items in your endeavors ? That you don't flip and/or control to earn PROFIT ?
All I can say is get a grip and stop being such hysterical hypocrites. One thread there is the bragging of massive profit and controlling a niche. Next thread ... no no wait *waves hands* it was all an illusion. These are not the results you are looking for...
ROFL, i mean who do you really think you are fooling.
I know what you can do in the market. The level of control especially in valuable items is consistently reproducible. I do it daily. I do it right. I'm quite astoundingly rich from it. And I've demonstrated that as well.
On the other hand back to your head injury theory - i think the level of density in yours it quite obvious. I wonder if its possible to injure one so thick.
Over the hills and through the woods.
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Heh. I'm not sure if you're agreeing with what I was saying or not. But either way, what I said had too many "too"s. |
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Somewhere there is a quote along the lines of "You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others." I think it is a Barnum or Mencken attribution.
|
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
How do you know this? In particular, it surprises me that you know something that is obviously not true. I list a bunch of stuff for, say, 101M. I usually get 150 or 200.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
However I KNOW that most players once you pass a certain threshold of value, will almost always bid creep.
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| Once you hit that threshold there is little inconsistency. If there's a marketeer in the niche, its often obvious. Sometimes there's a couple. Still obvious. |
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| For crying out loud most of you all have made it your business to tell everyone how its done, what bid format identifies yourselves, and otherwise brag extensively about your monetary conquests. Am I to understand you've had ZERO influence on the prices of items in your endeavors ? That you don't flip and/or control to earn PROFIT? |
Here's the thing. If I'm buying a recipe for 35M, listing enhancements for 91M, and people are bidding 150-200M... I'm not flipping, and I'm not controlling, and I'm making plenty of profit.
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| All I can say is get a grip and stop being such hysterical hypocrites. One thread there is the bragging of massive profit and controlling a niche. |
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| I know what you can do in the market. The level of control especially in valuable items is consistently reproducible. I do it daily. I do it right. I'm quite astoundingly rich from it. And I've demonstrated that as well. |
And I simply don't see this bid creeping you claim is usually happening. I list IOs for 12M and get 25M. I list IOs for 101M and get 150M or 200M. Sure, every so often someone bids a lot closer. Not very often, though.
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If it was easy, wouldn't you be more right than just "sometimes?"
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Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
I find that it's pretty easy to determine "quality" bids v. "painting" bids. ...... Sometimes I am even correct.
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@Rylas
Kill 'em all. Let XP sort 'em out.
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It's Mencken who attributed it to Barnum. And you've reversed it so that it means the opposite of what you intend. The actual quote is "You will never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
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Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Somewhere there is a quote along the lines of "You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others." I think it is a Barnum or Mencken attribution.
If not then you heard it here first! You will never go broke by underestimating the stupidity of others. |
Kosmos
Global: @Calorie
MA Arcs in 4-star purgatory: Four in a Row (#2198) - Hostile Takeover (#69714) - Red Harvest (#268305)
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I make plenty of money, and I never bother to try to control the price of anything, with the exception of a few times when I did it as an experiment. It turns out that controlling prices is too much work. There's plenty of money to be made in the regular ebb and flow of the market.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
For crying out loud most of you all have made it your business to tell everyone how its done, what bid format identifies yourselves, and otherwise brag extensively about your monetary conquests. Am I to understand you've had ZERO influence on the prices of items in your endeavors ? That you don't flip and/or control to earn PROFIT ?
|
I also can't agree with you about bid creeping. I regularly get buyers willing to pay twice what I am listing things for. If everyone was actually bid creeping, I would have to change my behavior. I haven't seen any sign of it though. My feeling is that bid creepers are a minority, at least in the niches where I hang out.
demand is demand. bids are bids. the motivations of the players making them is unknowable and thus irrelevant.
Well, I guess if you feel that a bid for 10 inf is equivalent to a bid for 10mm inf (or even if 1mm bids for 10 inf each are equivalent to a single bid for 10mm) I should thank you, because you are really making my life easier!
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html