Good post, Seebs. I laugh a little when I see people who don't understand Supply and Demand posting... about Supply and Demand.
It all comes down to this: Don't buy what you can't afford. (Make it in AE, make it with merits, kill stuff til you get a drop... you know.)
If everyone understood this rule, the corollary, You Can't Sell Someone Something They Don't Want, and the other corollary, You Can't Force Someone to Pay More for Something Than They Want To Pay, would be made clear.
Also, a corresponding truth would be revealed: The relative price of something is exponentially proportional** to the "Nao"-ness with which someone 'needs' it. Need it more Nao? Gimme Mo Moneh!
** - this may be a made up term. If so, (tm), and I'll only charge one purple recipe to anyone who wants to use it. 
Arc #6015 - Coming Unglued
"A good n00b-sauce is based on a good n00b-roux." - The Masque
Quote:
I used to before I thought a bit about proportionality. Bid creeping makes sense on expensive stuff. But bid creeping on common salvage matters about as much as putting off a purchase of $20, thinking that if only you're patient you can get it for $19.99. It's a rounding error. |
Originally Posted by DevilYouKnow
Meh. I always bid creep, yes even on common abundant salavge.
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I don't bid stupid: if I see something has zero bids, I'll bid low knowing I'll get it. But I don't stress about buying common salvage for 50K or more if prices have temporarily heated up. Spending an extra few hundred thousand in order to avoid waiting 5 or 10 minutes is a good tradeoff. My time is worth more than easily acquired imaginary currency.
Freedom: Blazing Larb, Fiery Fulcrum, Sardan Reborn, Arctic-Frenzy, Wasabi Sam, Mr Smashtastic.
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Originally Posted by Another_Fan
ROFL. That has to be the greatest example of an experiment designed to prove nothing I have ever seen. Then it is followed by an unsupported conclusion. Whats more the conclusion is far to broad even if the experimental technique were sufficient.
Loud applause is called for here and please forward this to the journal of irreproducible results post haste. P.S. If the glove don't fit you must acquit. |
Here's some stuff I did:
Prior to 2XP, I listed a bunch of LOTG 7.5 at 158,675,309. I also listed Unbreakable Constraint triples Ragnarok Triples at 148,675,309. The LOTGs sold at around 180,000,000 and 200,000,000 and the triples sold at 250,000,000 and 400,000,000ish.
I also paid several million for common salvage, because why the hell not, I have tons of play money.
Clearly I failed at manipulating the market as people paid more than my listed price and I paid far more than I should have for common salvage and recipes.
Questions about the game, either side? /t @Neuronia or @Neuronium, with your queries!
168760: A Death in the Gish. 3 missions, 1-14. Easy to solo.
Infinity Villains
Champion, Pinnacle, Virtue Heroes
I bid creep for cheap stuff, but I do it in a completely different way than I do for expensive stuff. For expensive stuff I start somewhere below what I think I'll have to pay, then add some increment. Like in my example above, if I'm looking to pay 100s of millions for something, I'll bid creep in 10M increments. I'll keep adding one of that increment until I get what I want or decide I don't want to pay any more, and then I usually back off several increments to some lower bid, and then leave it there.
With cheap stuff, I will start bidding at some stupidly low price, then do something like add a digit, effectively multiplying my bid by 10-11. I might bid 55, then 555, then 5555, etc. Like Sardan, though, I have limited willingness to do this for things under around 250k. I do almost always try one lowball bid, but what I use as my starting point does depend on my knowledge of recent prices. I won't start bidding 55 for something I know has been selling for 250k for the last two days.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
I lack the capacity to confuse anyone with your pre-existing levels of disorder.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
And I still lmao whenever you try and trot out this dribble. I often wonder if you are just that dense and really believe that, or if you are just trying to confuse those who've seen the market can be rigged into thinking it cant ?
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r/e bid creeping, it wastes my time and my real time > my play monies. I'd rather massively overpay than mess about with re-bidding. My salvage bidding has evolved over time, nowadays I start at 25k for 'junk' commons, 40k for 'junk' uncommons and either 50k or 2x 'last five' for 'junk' rares. For stuff people actually want I just double the high end of the 'last five'.
Recipes, I place one bid at what I think is a good BUY IT NAO price, if it doesn't fill I put in some lower but still high bid and let it marinate.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
And that is exactly how it should be, Nether. For you, Time > Moneh. So for people who are (poor), they can list stuff, and you'll give them a nice Tip for being so kind as to provide it for you in a handy easy-to-receive format. Meanwhile, the Moneh flows from you (stinky-rich) to them (poor) in an efficient manner.
It works, people.
Arc #6015 - Coming Unglued
"A good n00b-sauce is based on a good n00b-roux." - The Masque
Quote:
You are exactly correct on all counts -- I realized I reversed it while I was walking to work this morning. See, if you could have bet against me, you would not have gone broke!
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Originally Posted by Kosmos
It's Mencken who attributed it to Barnum. And you've reversed it so that it means the opposite of what you intend. The actual quote is "You will never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."
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Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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Back when a million was...well, if not a LOT of inf, at least a noticable chunk, I started the Lucky Lowbie Lottery, where a rotating cast of marketeers would buy some random piece of low level junk salvage for the outlandish sum of ONE MILLION INF, presumably making the day of a fellow player and rewarding them for posting that crummy tech common with 1200 listed and 0 bidders.
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Originally Posted by galadiman
And that is exactly how it should be, Nether. For you, Time > Moneh. So for people who are (poor), they can list stuff, and you'll give them a nice Tip for being so kind as to provide it for you in a handy easy-to-receive format. Meanwhile, the Moneh flows from you (stinky-rich) to them (poor) in an efficient manner.
It works, people. |
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
Quote:
I personally find you get a couple of those that just up and bid the "last 5". However almost every sale I make in the 500 mill and up range are with 25 to at most 50 million over what I list at. I can't remember especially in recent months seeing anyone swoop in and randomly pay me more than 50 million more what I asked. Definitely not in the realm of 100 mill or more. Usually most of my sales are within the 10-25 mill of my listing price.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I also disagree with this. I have been selling things that cost 200-300M for months, and I would say there's at least a 5:1 ratio of sales where I sell at a "round" price (well above what I listed at) to times where someone buys close to my actual list price.
What, really, do you mean when you say people bid creep? When I am buying something that costs 300M inf, sure, I usually bid creep, but I do it in 10M inf increments. My experience as a seller is that not many people do even this. If they did, I wouldn't make sales at 200M, 250M, 300M, etc. nearly as often as I do in practice. |
According to what you are saying I should see a bunch of random 100 to 200 mill over my asking price sales when im listing in the 500 million + range. I do not see this.
A question would be - what level of control are you trying to exert on the prices yourself ? Are you just popping items up and letting the other sellers and flippers in a particular niche help you set pricing ? Or are you proactively creating conditions to set a price ?
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Or another example, rare IO recipe, lvl 35, highly coveted 126 bidding, 2 offered, last 5 trades: 51,111,111 51,111,111 150,000,000 175,000,000 51,111,111 In this case, I would see this as something I would rather buy than sell. 3 of the last 5 sales have been to a "bidder of last resort". People have been coming in and selling at sell it nao prices. If I think this is worth around 150mm or more, then I would throw in a 55mm bid or two and if I had one to sell, I'd post it around 150mm. If I think this is worth less than 51,111,111 then I would sell it to the high bidder. |
You say the market is setting the price in that scenario ? With no outside influence ? No. I see 3 of the last 5 sales people were willing to offer that IO for under 50 million. However, a profiteer has stepped in to buy all the stuff that the players are willing to offer up cheaper. It actually provides a hint of what the prices on that item might be like IF no profiteer was working the item. That IO might regularly go for the 50 mill range ? Possible. Cant know for sure. We would not know unless the profiteer or (s) left the niche completely. However we do know that there are quite of few sales that would have occurred at a much lower price had someone not "bought up the low price stuff". This has forced players who did not get the lower priced items to be steered or forced to buy the much more expensive item.
It's not really that hard right ? It's a game with a closed system. We dont have players from other MMO's bringing their wares to our MMO's market and affecting conditions.
I want to ask a question. In all seriousness are you telling me you cannot achieve control of items ? I mean personally have you done it ? Can you do it ? Can you continue to do it over time ? Can you or have you profited from it ? Profited handsomely ? The question is for anybody who want to answer it ?
Can you or can you not do it ? Not whether you feel like doing it right now. Not how much work you feel you have to invest to do it ? Have you or have you not been able to achieve this for profit ?
Over the hills and through the woods.
Quote:
I'll pretend for a moment you're not an ideologue who ignores anything contrary to your preconceived notions and reply.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
I want to ask a question. In all seriousness are you telling me you cannot achieve control of items ? I mean personally have you done it ? Can you do it ? Can you continue to do it over time ? Can you or have you profited from it ? Profited handsomely ? The question is for anybody who want to answer it ?
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1: you can only achieve 'control' of an item for a short period and under special circumstances. It is usually more trouble/work than it's worth, and it will only last as long as circumstances allow. Barring naturally occurring niche failure brought on by player migration or changes in the structure of the game, other marketeers will eventually find any profitable niche you uncover and move in, eroding its value.
2: Personally, yes I have done it. Which is why I understand the limiting factors that make it unsustainable over the long term.
3: no, you can't. there are too many factors outside your control.
4: I think I ended up making a small profit, mostly because I forgot about a bunch of stuff I had stashed away and sold it during a reactivation weekend frenzy. But it is much easier and more profitable to work *with* the tide than against it- following what players are doing is much simpler and more lucrative than trying to convince them to do what you want.
5: Handsomely, no. I'm sure its possible, but again it's simpler and more lucrative to follow the herd rather than trying to corral it.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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Well, since it is hard to say exactly what the quality of the bid is unless you act on it, I figured that "sometimes" was probably more self-effacing and accurate than "always".
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Originally Posted by Rylas
If it was easy, wouldn't you be more right than just "sometimes?"
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Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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I'm not sure how anyone was "steered" into paying 150mm in that completely fabricated example. I would say that it all depends on what people's sense of value is. In that example, I would daresay there is one or more persons who feel that the item is cheap at that price, and that there were one or more persons who felt that the item needed to be sold.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
What you refer to as a bidder of last resort I see as bidders who have been steered into paying the 150 + range. I see a marketeer working an item. Just based on that last 5 picture I'm not seeing the huge variability of random purchases. This seems somewhat under control at the time the marketeer was working it. Of course its a mini snap shot, but still says a lot. You say the market is setting the price in that scenario ? With no outside influence ? No. I see 3 of the last 5 sales people were willing to offer that IO for under 50 million. However, a profiteer has stepped in to buy all the stuff that the players are willing to offer up cheaper. It actually provides a hint of what the prices on that item might be like IF no profiteer was working the item. That IO might regularly go for the 50 mill range ? Possible. Cant know for sure. We would not know unless the profiteer or (s) left the niche completely. However we do know that there are quite of few sales that would have occurred at a much lower price had someone not "bought up the low price stuff". This has forced players who did not get the lower priced items to be steered or forced to buy the much more expensive item. |
I included this example as exactly the opposite to what you viewed it as. I meant it as an example of a buying opportunity. I would look at this and say, "Hmm, recently there have been a lot of sellers and few buyers. Someone thinks this is worth at least 51,111,111. If that person is wrong, then they are going to eat a lot more at that price."
Now, if I happened to feel that the item was worth less than that bid price, I would sell it there and help drive them into ruin. But let's say that this is something like a Miracle +Recovery, that I personally value somewhere around 150mm for whatever reason. Then I would probably try to buy it at a slightly higher price than the bidder of last resort and offer it at a higher price.
You CAN sometimes trick people into believing valuations that are temporarily "off". But you can never trick someone into hitting that buy or sell button.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Quote:
I'm not sure what the relevance of this is to the point I was responding to, which was how often I see people bid creep. You claimed, basically, that most of or a large fraction of people bid creep. If that was true, then they should bid creep irrespective of whether someone is exerting control over the price of a particular item.|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
A question would be - what level of control are you trying to exert on the prices yourself ? Are you just popping items up and letting the other sellers and flippers in a particular niche help you set pricing ? Or are you proactively creating conditions to set a price ?
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I rarely sell anything that goes for more than 500M. I consume a lot of purples, so it's actually uncommon for me to sell them. I probably haven't flipped anything intentionally in the last 18 months, and I don't produce PvPOs. Most of my sales cap out around 300M. However, I would say that at least half of my sales over 100M are between 25 and 50M more than I asked for, and probably 90% of them are at least 10M more than I asked for. Probably more meaningful, I would say half my sales are at prices at least 25% more than I asked for, and 90% of them are at least 10% more than I asked for.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
Quote:
There's a difference between ignoring and simply knowing when something is wrong. You're simply wrong and I've stated it. I just don't feel I have to do it every single time.| I'll pretend for a moment you're not an ideologue who ignores anything contrary to your preconceived notions and reply. |
Here's what I'm working from here - real in game market experience over long periods of time. Based on the way I've played the market (and I know quite a few players who use the same tactics and strategies) - I have achieved control of many different items over time, I've continued control on some items for months at a time, often longer (in two cases much longer), and profited handsomely is and understatement.
Two thoughts:
1 - Control doesnt mean I 100% control every piece that goes through. It means that I manage to flip and handle enough of the sales that I keep a consistent and strong profit.
2 - Limiting factors that would interrupt being able to do this simply comes down to resources. I don't even find luck is as big a factor as some have stated.
All I'm saying is that's simply what I've done in the market. I've consistently done what some of you are saying is not possible. I also feel that it's pretty straight forward overall. If someone tells you its not possible, but you go and do it and find it's totally possible, I would say it is in fact possible.
I also said don't bother with telling me whether you feel its worth it or not. Saying you dont find the effort worth it is simply telling me you either 1) are unwilling to commit to doing it properly, 2) dont have the resources to do it properly, 3) possibly dont really know how to do it properly. If any of those factors are correct - then your statements that its not possible are completely flawed. Because you arent able to do it for one reason or another does not mean something is not possible.
I think i'll leave it at that.
Over the hills and through the woods.
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Who said it wasn't possible?
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Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
All I'm saying is that's simply what I've done in the market. I've consistently done what some of you are saying is not possible. I also feel that it's pretty straight forward overall. If someone tells you its not possible, but you go and do it and find it's totally possible, I would say it is in fact possible.
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Quote:
Yeah, if you have unlimited time, you can probably do it. I believe Nethergoat was likely including Time as one (of the several) criterion for determining if controlling the market is 'worth it'. But at some point, you (hopefully) have to [eat, bathe, go see a movie, get up from your chair...]. When that happens, you wil probably get some people sneaking through. And though you may continue to profit, you won't really be 'controlling the market' (ie, keeping sellers from meeting buyers that don't want to pay your prices.)|
Originally Posted by MeanNVicious
There's a difference between ignoring and simply knowing when something is wrong. You're simply wrong and I've stated it. I just don't feel I have to do it every single time.
Here's what I'm working from here - real in game market experience over long periods of time. Based on the way I've played the market (and I know quite a few players who use the same tactics and strategies) - I have achieved control of many different items over time, I've continued control on some items for months at a time, often longer (in two cases much longer), and profited handsomely is and understatement. Two thoughts: 1 - Control doesnt mean I 100% control every piece that goes through. It means that I manage to flip and handle enough of the sales that I keep a consistent and strong profit. 2 - Limiting factors that would interrupt being able to do this simply comes down to resources. I don't even find luck is as big a factor as some have stated. All I'm saying is that's simply what I've done in the market. I've consistently done what some of you are saying is not possible. I also feel that it's pretty straight forward overall. If someone tells you its not possible, but you go and do it and find it's totally possible, I would say it is in fact possible. I also said don't bother with telling me whether you feel its worth it or not. Saying you dont find the effort worth it is simply telling me you either 1) are unwilling to commit to doing it properly, 2) dont have the resources to do it properly, 3) possibly dont really know how to do it properly. If any of those factors are correct - then your statements that its not possible are completely flawed. Because you arent able to do it for one reason or another does not mean something is not possible. I think i'll leave it at that. |
Just because it can be done, does not mean it is a worthwhile endeavor for a reasonable person. And if the market is being 'held hostage', so to speak, there are still several paths to obtaining a specific item on the market that do not involve the market (merits, tickets, etc.). So your 'control' is really just a self-imposed illusion, in my opinion.
That's just my opinion, with my limited understanding. There are experts on these forums who would have better information, and they generally (from my understanding) hold a similar viewpoint.
Arc #6015 - Coming Unglued
"A good n00b-sauce is based on a good n00b-roux." - The Masque
Quote:
In a nutshell.|
Originally Posted by galadiman
Just because it can be done, does not mean it is a worthwhile endeavor for a reasonable person.
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You *can* do a lot of things with enough effort, but over the years I've found that the easiest way is also the most lucrative- following the market instead of making the market.
Let's say you put a lot of time and energy into "controlling" whatever and make a few billion. Meanwhile, someone else just follows the trends and makes the same amount with a fraction of the effort.
Who on earth wants to bother with controlling anything? It's way more work for at best the same profit.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
Every time I've tried to control something I ran out of inf before people ran out of stuff to sell me. Now in the 500 million+ range, where there aren't a lot of sales in a different week, it might be different. On the other hand, I have a character that, I'm pretty sure, makes 700 million a week on stuff that's only selling for 15 or 25 million per item. *shrug*
One of us is wrong about your "level of control". Let's take a real example, admittedly over 2XP, and you tell me what you see and I'll tell you what I see.
Armageddon Dam/Rech, last 5 sales today. 305 million, 311,111,222 million, 500 million,400 million, 500 million. 4 for sale, 59 bidding.
Damage/Recharge, crafted, last 5 sales today and yesterday, 27 for sale and 54 bidding: 500 million, 425,555,556, 3x550 million.
What that says to me is, if I buy it nao I can get it for 500-550, if I have some patience I can eventually buy it for 315.1 or 320.1 million [in case some one bid pi hundred million], craft it, list it for probably 460 million and sell it overnight, probably for 470 or 480 million. Minus a shade over 50 million in went-fees and whatnot, that's going to be around 100 million profit. Pretty nice, but it takes a while to get that low price. Maybe a couple days. And of course someone could start sucking 'em up at 333 million and selling em for 400 million, with a profit of about 20 million, at any point.
I'm not saying I can turn a single slot over enough to make 50 million a day. But I'm saying I can do it fast and consistently, and every once in a while I'll find something that makes me 30 million per slot and flips twice a day for quite a while.
I mean, seriously, if people hit your price within 25 million, and people hit my price within 10 million, and I'm crafting twelve things a day for cheap... it seems like your control may not be getting you that much for your money.
EDITED 1: I do know someone [Enyalios] who says she controls a few niches. She makes very, very good money. She doesn't do it in the 500M per item game, though... and I've hopped in and out of her niches purely by accident and made a bit of good money on the way.
EDITED 2: Thanks, Yomo, for keeping the fires burning on that Impervious Skin triple. I had no idea why it was doing so well for me... your hard work!
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Quote:
Don't thank me, thank my 10 bids at 1,115.
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Originally Posted by Fulmens
EDITED 2: Thanks, Yomo, for keeping the fires burning on that Impervious Skin triple. I had no idea why it was doing so well for me... your hard work! |
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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An example of this would be the 2009 shortage of one of the halloween salvage parts. I was co-leading a villain SG with the person who managed to pull every single one of them from the market. It was a very profitable year for us. |
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
1: you can only achieve 'control' of an item for a short period and under special circumstances.
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But I don't see this as something that will ever be able to be achieved with standard invention salvage. There's simply too many drops across too many servers, especially with common salvage. True lasting price control...no way.
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Pneumatic pistons with last years introduction of winters gift ? |
Originally Posted by Generilisk_
An example of this would be the 2009 shortage of one of the halloween salvage parts. I was co-leading a villain SG with the person who managed to pull every single one of them from the market. It was a very profitable year for us.
But I don't see this as something that will ever be able to be achieved with standard invention salvage. There's simply too many drops across too many servers, especially with common salvage. True lasting price control...no way. |
Human blood samples by Top Doc a few months ago ?
Ceramic armor plates by B L Angel ?
Let me leave off with a real world example. OPEC doesn't control most of the worlds oil reserves, they just control the cheap oil.
What, really, do you mean when you say people bid creep? When I am buying something that costs 300M inf, sure, I usually bid creep, but I do it in 10M inf increments. My experience as a seller is that not many people do even this. If they did, I wouldn't make sales at 200M, 250M, 300M, etc. nearly as often as I do in practice.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA