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Originally Posted by seebs
I left up 11 bids on stacks of 10 ancient bone for 123 inf.
I then listed 110 ancient bones for 1 inf. None bidding. I also put up bids on one more stack of 10 at 123 inf. First one sold for 500k, roughly 10x the last bids. My first few stacks: 590,000 90,500 166,111 20,172,000 62,000 640,500 86,000 Guys, during the ENTIRE time this happened, there were at least 50 ancient bones up for 1 inf. Edited: And after that: 736,313 161,031 641,000 815,000 10,000 ... and that's what I had so far. SELLERS ARE NOT AFFECTING PRICES. |
ROFL. That has to be the greatest example of an experiment designed to prove nothing I have ever seen. Then it is followed by an unsupported conclusion. Whats more the conclusion is far to broad even if the experimental technique were sufficient.
Loud applause is called for here and please forward this to the journal of irreproducible results post haste.
P.S. If the glove don't fit you must acquit.
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Nice fantasy world you are living in. ROFL.| SELLERS ARE NOT AFFECTING PRICES. |
Or maybe its better stated that your ineptitude as a seller means that YOU arent affecting prices. Letting said ineptitude sully the reputation of competent marketeers, seems to be quite silly.
Over the hills and through the woods.
Ineptitude has nothing to do with it. To get 20M for a stack, I have to have gotten at least 2M each. I don't think a competent marketeer would be trying to drive prices on common salvage up to 2M each when there's hundreds for sale and no bidding.
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Originally Posted by seebs
Sellers are not affecting prices
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You're a funny guy!
Clicking on the linked image above will take you off the City of Heroes site. However, the guides will be linked back here.
The seller determines the minimum price that he or she is willing to accept for an item. By selling at 1 inf, you were willing to accept any price. It's as simple as that, and I thought it had already been established that many folks just pay what they want for most common salvage without trying to bid creep. If there's any greater revelation here, I'm missing it.
The problem is, when common salvage sells for 100k, people complain that "flippers" are "manipulating prices".
And yet. During a period where there was never a single minute during which you could not get ancient bones for 1 inf. People paid well over 100k. Repeatedly.
There is no way that this counts as flippers manipulating prices. Sometimes, when things are selling for 100k, it's not because people are asking 100k for them, it's because people just bang on the keyboard and click make offer.
Perhaps a better conclusion to your original post would have been "Sellers and buyers both affect the prices on the market, neither sets it on their own."
@Roderick
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No! No!|
Originally Posted by seebs
The problem is, when common salvage sells for 100k, people complain that "flippers" are "manipulating prices".
And yet. During a period where there was never a single minute during which you could not get ancient bones for 1 inf. People paid well over 100k. Repeatedly. There is no way that this counts as flippers manipulating prices. Sometimes, when things are selling for 100k, it's not because people are asking 100k for them, it's because people just bang on the keyboard and click make offer. |
You're wrong! Totally wrong man! It's a conspiracy!
Clicking on the linked image above will take you off the City of Heroes site. However, the guides will be linked back here.
Thread title win.
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Fair enough. The claim that sellers are controlling prices, and that's why common salvage sells for 100k, is clearly wrong, though.|
Originally Posted by Roderick
Perhaps a better conclusion to your original post would have been "Sellers and buyers both affect the prices on the market, neither sets it on their own."
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Honestly, I've been anti-flipping for a while, and I was used to seeing stacks go for 10k, but 20M was a new one on me. As was the *consistent* sales at 500k for a stack.
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You can't conclude that. You can conclude the following:|
Originally Posted by seebs
SELLERS ARE NOT AFFECTING PRICES.
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1) In this example, the seller was not setting the prices.
2) Many, perhaps most, buyers throw money away.
Sellers *CAN* affect prices. They can affect them dramatically.
Clearly, though, when someone comes in here screaming about price fixing and conspiracies they are often completely wrong. Maybe it's most of the time; maybe it's just occasionally. I don't see any way we can ever be sure. But it is certain - SOME of the time it's just stupid buyers and there is no manipulation.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
I have to say I'm kinda on seebs' side here.
I see his/her experiment as a way of saying "My observation is that people don't bid creep". And they generally don't. Sellers who post high are not a problem -- you just don't buy from them. But if you are paying more for something than its list price, it's pretty much your own fault.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Exactly. When I buy things, I decide what price I want to pay. Sellers can't make me pay more than that. They can refuse to sell to me, in which case I wait for someone else to come along who's willing to sell at my price, but I get EXACTLY the price I pick, and I never pay 1 inf more. Unless I make a typo.
That said, throwing up lowball bids for a hundred+ of them is sort of painting the tape...
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Meh. I always bid creep, yes even on common abundant salavge. If there are 0 bidding I always start at 259 and move up from there (I chose this number so that people make more than they would ojust with a straight vend).
I don't mind paying more but if I can get it cheaper I will.
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Yeah, but even if I just list 130 of them with no remaining bids up, I still tend to get insane numbers.|
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
That said, throwing up lowball bids for a hundred+ of them is sort of painting the tape...
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Interestingly, Ruby is particularly prone to this, I think because it's a gem and people expect it to be more valuable.
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Don't get me wrong, I've been known myself to throw a few hundred or thousand bids on a salvage to make it look good. But it is still painting the tape to an extent.|
Originally Posted by seebs
Yeah, but even if I just list 130 of them with no remaining bids up, I still tend to get insane numbers.
Interestingly, Ruby is particularly prone to this, I think because it's a gem and people expect it to be more valuable. |
That said, I've never found it profitable to mess around with common salvage, other than making markets (some would call this flipping) on alchemical silvers and luck charms and such. It is fun, and you get a rush and some good quick flow, but ultimately you make a lot more inf elsewhere, in my opinion.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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I don't disagree with any of that, but I do think a more useful and/or correct thing to conclude is that "seller's don't act alone to set the price" or "sellers influence the price, not set it alone".|
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
I see his/her experiment as a way of saying "My observation is that people don't bid creep". And they generally don't. Sellers who post high are not a problem -- you just don't buy from them. But if you are paying more for something than its list price, it's pretty much your own fault.
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Sellers and buyers do a sort of dance around each other, using the last 5 history as their feedback of what other sales have done. If a bidder bids too low or a seller lists too high compared to the recent sales history, they're effectively not going to get a dance partner.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
I'm not sure how it's painting the tape if I paint the tape with a bunch of 123s and then the next bid in is someone bidding 500k. I mean, clearly, I'm not getting much influence on what they do.
FWIW, I don't do this to make money, I do it to get sales badges.
Buyers have much more influence over prices realized than sellers.
I'm not sure how anyone could interact with the market for any length of time and come to any other conclusion. Head injury maybe?
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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You know, I guess it depends on how you think about it. I would say it's painting the tape because you are putting in a bunch of bids in order to simulate trading interest (again, I do this ALL THE TIME, so I think that I myself paint the tape) by pumping up the # bids figure.|
Originally Posted by seebs
I'm not sure how it's painting the tape if I paint the tape with a bunch of 123s and then the next bid in is someone bidding 500k. I mean, clearly, I'm not getting much influence on what they do.
FWIW, I don't do this to make money, I do it to get sales badges. |
Then again, you could look at it as legitimate interest in buying at that level. Which indeed would be profitable when vendored, but not to the extent that you can sell to someone else who mistakenly feels that this is a high demand item and must be bot now!
Anyway, I don't see anything wrong with it. It IS creating a "false" sense of demand, but then again, anyone who has the mental capacity to turn this game on should be able to recognize that falsity.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
as I've said many times, demand is demand is demand is demand.
There is no such thing as 'artificial' demand. A bid represents interest in an item- what motivates the bidder is unknowable and irrelevant.
Maybe the buyer wants to delete a ton of salvage, maybe they want to craft a billion enhancements, maybe they want to re-sell it at a profit, maybe....who knows, who cares, it doesn't matter.
The market doesn't care about anything except the bid itself.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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I don't agree, because you have no way of knowing what the bid is until you hit it. Additional bids give the illusion of price support on or about the last 5. Since you have no idea if a bid is for 10mm inf or for 1 inf, sellers will work off the information they have -- most of the time that inf is last 5 traded.|
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
as I've said many times, demand is demand is demand is demand.
There is no such thing as 'artificial' demand. A bid represents interest in an item- what motivates the bidder is unknowable and irrelevant. |
I put artificial demand bids on things all the time -- it tends to keep future price action near past price action. My favorite is something like Impervious Skin triples. I have a few crafted, but there are no bids and the last 5 are in the 15mm range. Well, I am certainly not going to let someone lowball me! So I put in a few bids at something high enough to pick off the sell it nao crowd. And I make my sales. Now I cannot prove that my "false" bids make my sales more likely, but I will tell you I have bought a lot of crafted enhancements at around 1,000 inf and sold them at around 20,000,000.
So it's all good!
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
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A bid is a bid is a bid. Sub-dividing between "serious" and "not serious" bids is as pointless as pretending there is such an animal as "artifical" demand. |
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
I don't agree, because you have no way of knowing what the bid is until you hit it. Additional bids give the illusion of price support on or about the last 5. Since you have no idea if a bid is for 10mm inf or for 1 inf, sellers will work off the information they have -- most of the time that inf is last 5 traded.
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demand is demand. bids are bids. the motivations of the players making them is unknowable and thus irrelevant.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
I left up 11 bids on stacks of 10 ancient bone for 123 inf.
I then listed 110 ancient bones for 1 inf. None bidding. I also put up bids on one more stack of 10 at 123 inf.
First one sold for 500k, roughly 10x the last bids.
My first few stacks:
590,000
90,500
166,111
20,172,000
62,000
640,500
86,000
Guys, during the ENTIRE time this happened, there were at least 50 ancient bones up for 1 inf.
Edited: And after that:
736,313
161,031
641,000
815,000
10,000
... and that's what I had so far.
SELLERS ARE NOT AFFECTING PRICES.