For better recipe drop rates, I try to get the Ouro day job. It hasn't failed to give me a yellow/orange recipe drop at the end of each mission.
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That sounds like a bug. Could you run DropStats on your combat logs from that fight and post the results here?
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Originally Posted by joebartender
I loaded up Serpent Drummers "Dreams of Peace and Acts of War" story arc in Oro last night on a level 50 Brute. I ran the arc thru 4 missions all set at +1x8. I cleared each mission of all enemies.
I was able to get drops of Inspirations, salvage, influence and even bonded two incarnate shards but was unable to get one recipe to drop. Not a single plain IO recipe or a set recipe. I have 10 slots open in my recipe inventory so I know that wasn't the problem. |
How much can the RNG hate you? I'll tell you.
I was opening presents in Talos on a level 50 because I didn't want to do anything that involved concentration, and on one of them I was naughty, and three 20-something snowmen popped out. I threw out an AoE to clear them before moving on...
And missed two of them.
...I forgot what experience means.
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That's not too unlikely. If I'm doing the math right, there's a 1.43% chance of that happening for any given trio of targets. The odds of defeating hundreds of enemies and not getting a single recipe drop are much lower, best expressed using scientific notation.
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Originally Posted by SpaceNut
How much can the RNG hate you? I'll tell you.
I was opening presents in Talos on a level 50 because I didn't want to do anything that involved concentration, and on one of them I was naughty, and three 20-something snowmen popped out. I threw out an AoE to clear them before moving on... And missed two of them. |
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Actually wrong, because you have a 95% chance to hit, if the first one misses, the second is forced to hit by the streakbreaker, then the third one has the standard chance to hit, so you're missing 2/2 not 2/3. hence it's only a 1 in 400 chance of missing 2/3.|
Originally Posted by Katie V
That's not too unlikely. If I'm doing the math right, there's a 1.43% chance of that happening for any given trio of targets. The odds of defeating hundreds of enemies and not getting a single recipe drop are much lower, best expressed using scientific notation.
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This presumes you weren't already on a streak of misses from hitting something much harder to hit previously.
It's true. This game is NOT rocket surgery. - BillZBubba
I've gone that many missions (and more) without any drops before.
It's rare, and a lot of bad luck on the drop rolls, but it does happen now and then.
One thing to remember is that there isn't a "streak-breaker" for drops.
So every "did a receipe drop" roll is completely independent of any previous rolls.
If you were stating that you didn't get ANY drops (insps, salvage, enhancements, or receipes), then I'd say there might be a bug somewhere.
But just a (relatively) short streak of no receipe drops is well within the realm of possibility.
6000+ levels gained and 8 level 50's
Hello, my name is Soulwind and I have Alt-Itis.
The answer to "Just how much can the RNG hate you?" is "How much hate is there."
Then every now and then the horrible thing will throw you a bone just to let you know who's the boss or to get your hopes up so it can smash them.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
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My reply was going to be something similar to this.|
Originally Posted by SwellGuy
The answer to "Just how much can the RNG hate you?" is "How much hate is there."
Then every now and then the horrible thing will throw you a bone just to let you know who's the boss or to get your hopes up so it can smash them. |
The RNG can have no limit to how much it hates you (or anyone for that matter) on any given day.
There I was between a rock and a hard place. Then I thought, "What am I doing on this side of the rock?"
Minotaur: Was it you from whom I bought 18 random Pool C rolls, and none of them were worth a bucket of warm drool?
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
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Yup, for months I rolled a fetid pile of dingos' kidneys, then I started getting a few good ones, then it went back to crap again, so I rarely roll these days.|
Originally Posted by Fulmens
Minotaur: Was it you from whom I bought 18 random Pool C rolls, and none of them were worth a bucket of warm drool?
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I have said before, I have a strong suspicion that the RNG isn't random (or isn't always triggered to roll a new number), I've seen too many once in a lifetime occurrences to believe it is. The sort of thing is (in between hitting normally with other attacks) my sands of mu vet attack missing 34 times in a row against stuff it should hit 2/3 of the time.
It's true. This game is NOT rocket surgery. - BillZBubba
I totally agree with this. The RNG seems to be missing its R. I'd love it if the devs would talk to us about how it works, or at least agree to double check it and make sure everything is kosher.
I haven't had as bad luck as some of the folks in this thread, but there's been plenty of times when I notice a long streak of misses, for example. And I normally have the combat logs open or I monitor "Last Chance To Hit," so I know if I've been debuffed or not.
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You're right, but for the wrong reason.|
Originally Posted by Minotaur
Actually wrong, because you have a 95% chance to hit, if the first one misses, the second is forced to hit by the streakbreaker, then the third one has the standard chance to hit, so you're missing 2/2 not 2/3. hence it's only a 1 in 400 chance of missing 2/3.
This presumes you weren't already on a streak of misses from hitting something much harder to hit previously. |
The only rolls that can generate a two-out-of-three miss are M-H-M (0.2375%) and M-M-M (forced to be M-H-M by the streakbreaker) (0.0125%), for an overall chance of 0.25%. My original math also included rolls such as M-M-H which are forbidden by the streakbreaker.
Back to the original post, the probability of getting no recipe drops after defeating 100 minion-equivalents (about six x8 groups) is 6%; after defeating 1000 minion-equivalents (a typical arc) is 0.00000000018%.
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Actually I just skipped a step, miss - hit or miss - miss is required, so since the probability of "hit or miss" is 1, this is just the miss chance squared.|
Originally Posted by Katie V
You're right, but for the wrong reason.
The only rolls that can generate a two-out-of-three miss are M-H-M (0.2375%) and M-M-M (forced to be M-H-M by the streakbreaker) (0.0125%), for an overall chance of 0.25%. My original math also included rolls such as M-M-H which are forbidden by the streakbreaker. |
I realised what you'd done.
It's true. This game is NOT rocket surgery. - BillZBubba
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The problem is from the mile high view it probably does work. Across the entire playerbase of activities it likely shows a proper random distribution. Unfortunately I think it behaves preferentially for some and very nasty for others for some reason.|
Originally Posted by gameboy1234
I totally agree with this. The RNG seems to be missing its R. I'd love it if the devs would talk to us about how it works, or at least agree to double check it and make sure everything is kosher.
I haven't had as bad luck as some of the folks in this thread, but there's been plenty of times when I notice a long streak of misses, for example. And I normally have the combat logs open or I monitor "Last Chance To Hit," so I know if I've been debuffed or not. |
At the very least it is often very streaky for me.
Of course dice rolling in real life has also never been favorable for me so perhaps like gravity and contrary to Obi-Wan's claim there is such a thing as luck.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
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Originally Posted by SwellGuy
The problem is from the mile high view it probably does work.
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This is what I'm saying, I think. The "mile high" view doesn't work. The RNGs are typically implemented with linear congruential generators, and they can show strong coupling from one value to the next. Once the internal value gets loaded with ones, or zeroes, it tends to produce high or low values for a while until it gets sorted out again.
From "one mile up" this looks fine, because the LCG does get sorted out. From the stand point of individual rolls -- true randomness, that the next value is independent of the previous value -- it doesn't always work as well.
Not sure what could be done about this but I'd love to have some communication from the devs about it. Primarily, I'd guess that their RNG code is proprietary and they won't show us. But maybe there's other stuff they could do.
I'll search around and see if the post still exists, but Arachnaville tested a very high number of to-hit rolls (millions, if I am remembering correctly) and was unable to detect anything that didn't look random.
I'm not saying that I know something that other people don't, or that I know for certain that the RNG is working or not, but people have to remember that selective perception and subjective validation are well know problems when people try to understand random events, especially those that provide reward and punishment feedback. I certainly know from testing my own assumptions that I suffer from both problems. It's just something to keep in mind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subjective_validation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_perception
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Rolling dice in the real world I tend to get the dramatically appropriate die roll.|
Originally Posted by SwellGuy
Of course dice rolling in real life has also never been favorable for me so perhaps like gravity and contrary to Obi-Wan's claim there is such a thing as luck.
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Whether that is a good or a bad die roll, is debatable.
What ever it is, it is dramatic.
There I was between a rock and a hard place. Then I thought, "What am I doing on this side of the rock?"
I am under the impression that in Oro the same drop rules apply as in other areas of the game. If this is wrong then I'm just sharp as a bag of wet hair and we can all just move along and forget I even typed the rest of this post.
I loaded up Serpent Drummers "Dreams of Peace and Acts of War" story arc in Oro last night on a level 50 Brute. I ran the arc thru 4 missions all set at +1x8. I cleared each mission of all enemies.
I was able to get drops of Inspirations, salvage, influence and even bonded two incarnate shards but was unable to get one recipe to drop.
Not a single plain IO recipe or a set recipe. I have 10 slots open in my recipe inventory so I know that wasn't the problem.
Normally I have to delete trash recipe drops or vendor things after each mission, at the most every two missions. Playing solo x8 tends to fill up the inventories rather quickly.
Is this just a case of the coldest streak in history on the RNG or perhaps a glitch of some sort?
Global: @Kelig