Discussion - investment scheme


AgentMountaineer

 

Posted

What would you guys think if I said I was setting up a public mutual fund?

Now that nearly all my characters have completed their builds, I'm thinking of running an investment scheme. I don't intend to make any money for myself on this, and will be doing this for fun. I'll solicit investments, play the market and pay out dividends. After a certain period of time, perhaps 2-3 months, the fund will close and all money will be repaid to investors.

Obviously, farmers and established marketeers wouldn't benefit from this scheme - it's too much hassle for too little return. This would be for those players who aren't rich and don't have the inclination to play the market, but still want to profit from it.

The business plan will be to craft and sell high-end Pool A and C IOs. From my experience, this is a more reliable, if not very spectacular, source of income than flipping recipes. The profit margin varies from 25% - 50%. I need to start recording sales to be able to give an accurate turnover rate.

What return on investment do you think is feasible? How often should dividends be paid out? Investors will need to collect their money from me in person, so paying out often will be troublesome, but if a long time goes by without any results people will be rightfully concerned.

There is always the risk of people being scammed, or that I won't be able to log in and pay investors. All I can think of to minimize this risk is to put a sum equal to the investment in a neutral 3rd party to hold in escrow. If i default, the 3rd party can then refund investors.

At this point, there are no concrete plans (yet). I'm just gauging interest and looking for opinions.


 

Posted

We were just talking about starting a Ponzi scheme in the Eeebil Marketeers Group, but we figured nobody would go for it. Let me know how it works out for ya tho, I'd be interested to see!


 

Posted

Yah, but I am (if I decide to go ahead with this) serious, not running a ponzi scheme - and how profitable would a ponzi scheme be, anyway? There is no money to be had in cheating poor people.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laevateinn View Post
Yah, but I am (if I decide to go ahead with this) serious, not running a ponzi scheme - and how profitable would a ponzi scheme be, anyway? There is no money to be had in cheating poor people.
I guess you never heard of the EIB scam at EVE Online. http://www.gamestah.com/news/view/76

A guy ran a Ponzi scheme there which scored him 700B ISK which had a real-world value of around $AUD165K

I believe Smurphy ran a genuine investment scheme in CoH a while ago (called the Cartel?)

To me the limiting factor for profits is not inf, but time and slots. I think a subscription only trading newsletter might be a better model. Charge players a weekly fee for your trading secrets.


 

Posted

Maybe I didn't make it clear - I'm not interested in scamming or anything unethical.

Selling market "secrets" sounds interesting, but I don't have that many to sell. I suppose I could try to run a service where I find and research crafting niches.

At the core, this isn't about making money for myself. This is about pretending to be a fund manager while (hopefully) helping a few people buy enhancements they want. I've always enjoyed the market side of the game, and now that my build goals are all mostly achieved, it gives me a reason to play the game other than making #9 posts at the end of every issue.


 

Posted

I'm in. I certainly have the funds to spare--I'm more curious to learn more of the mechanics and quirks of the game/market/players.


There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.

 

Posted

I'd say keep your initial group of investors small to start with. A test group to work out any kinks. Have a scheduled pay out time for dividends set up, for example, every other Friday at 9:00pm EST or something. Those are just a couple of ideas that might help.

My questions for you would be, “What server?” and “What are you thinking would be a reasonable minimum investment?”


---
I've been told that sometimes my lucidity is frightening.
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Your logic is no match for concentrated stupid. - Organica
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Current MAs:
Stop the catgirl rampage! #66361

 

Posted

I'd be willing to put some funds in too, if too much isn't needed to start things. I'm definitely one of the common joe types who doesn't understand the specifics of the market (espcially investments) but like DumpleBerry I've been curious about the finer points of the market ever since I started reading the market forums.

I figure this'll either be a good way to learn something, or a quick way to lose a fair chunk of change (from my perspective).


Paragon City Search and Rescue
www.pcsar.net

 

Posted

t will definitely be blueside, with news of Going Rogue on the horizon. I'm tempted to say Virtue (my home server), but if most people interested are on another server (Freedom?) I'd consider that, too.

I'm tentatively considering a small group of 3-5 investors, with dividends calculated after Monday maintenance ends, so that I can hand out the money from weekend sales. I'm not sure yet whether there should be a seperate time scheduled for everyone to show up and collect their money. I'll also write a weekly report to be posted here, detailing the fund's performance.

I want to keep the initial investment small, to make it accessible to less wealthy players and to reduce the risks players face. (Like COTCaveHater said, influence isn't really a limiting factor - time and slots are - so I don't see the need to ask for vast sums of money either.) I think a good plan would be a fixed amount of 1m influence per player, no more no less.

Finally, I'm sorry if I disappoint, but I'm not really certain what, if anything, you'll be able learn from this venture since I don't plan to disclose exactly which items I'm buying and selling. For the most part, it will be pretty standard market play, except using other people's money instead of my own. Actually, now I'm curious; what do you think you'll learn from this?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulmens View Post
Doesn't this fall in the same category as saying "Trust me"?
You're right, and I don't like only being able to say "trust me". I think that if this is going to be done properly, there needs to be some way of enforcing the fund's obligations to investors. I've already mentioned using escrow to safeguard players' money - if you invest X influence, I'll put X influence with a mutually-agreed upon third party to hold in escrow. If I turn out to be a filthy scammer, you can at least get back your money from him/her. I'll also keep the amount to be invested small (see above) so that the risk you take is minimized.

But there is no way of independently verifying a character's assets, market history, or influence total. Even if I didn't run off with your influence, I could - if I wanted to - skim off, say, 100m to buy a Miracle unique and just report lesser earnings than there actually were. Nobody would ever find out. The regulatory mechanisms to protect against this sort of fraud are impossible or impractical to implement in-game. I'm afraid in the end this is going to depend heavily on trust, and people will have to balance the risk of being cheated against the reward of free money.


 

Posted

Honestly, I'm not sure if there's anything to learn from it either, but I'll keep my mind and eyes open to see what I can pick up.

Although, I am interested how money becomes more money and how it's determined to be divided among the investors and the acting party. Like I said earlier, I don't know very much at all about investing stuff so anything I do learn is something more than nothing in the end. Even if it's standard market play, then at least it's something I can say I've done someday.


Also, if you choose Virtue, I could easily go along with that as it's my second home server and one million inf won't be much of a risk at all.


Paragon City Search and Rescue
www.pcsar.net

 

Posted

I would assume the you would start a band new toon that basically wouldn't leave atlas park/a base or steel canyon, just so you could track the numbers better. i.e. start with 5 million end up with 10 mill by the following week, easy numbers...

and really if you were skimming some off the top for personal profit isn't that how banks stay in business and pay their employees? does it really matter to the investors all that much as long as they get their weekly check?

if you are serious and the buy in is gunna be as low as a mill, I may be interested in investing, on virtue


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Posted

I am willing to throw some money your way "think of it as a small start up inventment". I have the funds to take a risk. If you decide to go forward just shout out the particulars.


 

Posted

I've had an idea how you could pay your dividends without needing to meet up with your investors... see this thread (click)


 

Posted

I have to say that I'm almost...disappointed at the initial investment amount. I can supply <redacted> on Virtue (my home turf as well), so 1M won't even be noticed.

As for "skimming," I really have no problem with you receiving equitable pay for handling my investments.


There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laevateinn View Post
with dividends calculated after Monday maintenance ends, so that I can hand out the money from weekend sales.
Quote:
I think a good plan would be a fixed amount of 1m influence per player, no more no less.
I think there's an issue of scale here. Even for someone without a great deal of influence, weekly payouts from an initial investment of 1 million influence seems like a bit of a nuisance for a relatively small sum.

I don't know if you're already run some numbers, but maybe you should go 5+ million and semi-weekly?


P.S. I have a relatively poor toon on Virtue so I may be interested. I'll be watching this thread.


Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

 

Posted

I have a couple poor toons I would be interested in this with as well. Been playing the market with them (but not making a killing just a nice small profit each time I log in)

I'll keep my eyes on this thread


Member of the Hyperion Force

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by MoonlyteShadow View Post
I would assume the you would start a band new toon that basically wouldn't leave atlas park/a base or steel canyon, just so you could track the numbers better. i.e. start with 5 million end up with 10 mill by the following week, easy numbers...
Something like that. I'll be starting a new character and levelling her up a bit (for transaction slots/inventory size, and also to get Fly so I can move from the Steel Canyon university to the WW easily), and give away all her money before accepting investments.


Quote:
Originally Posted by COTCaveHater View Post
I've had an idea how you could pay your dividends without needing to meet up with your investors... see this thread (click)
That's interesting, but I think I'm going to play it safe and do everything by hand, since it'll be other people's money that I'll be handling. I also want to avoid losing 10% of the money to market fees.

Selfishly, I also find it more fun to be able to meet someone in person and hand over cash.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DumpleBerry View Post
I have to say that I'm almost...disappointed at the initial investment amount. I can supply <redacted> on Virtue (my home turf as well), so 1M won't even be noticed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
I think there's an issue of scale here. Even for someone without a great deal of influence, weekly payouts from an initial investment of 1 million influence seems like a bit of a nuisance for a relatively small sum.

I don't know if you're already run some numbers, but maybe you should go 5+ million and semi-weekly?
I don't agree; I think that small investments can yield returns that are completely out of scale. KeepDistance went from nothing to 1bn in a month (and he had to wind down operations near the end, or he could have made more). He even did it under the crippled i13 market. Don't worry; I wouldn't seriously consider this if I wasn't confident of generating significant dividends.

I'm not opposed to a larger initial investment provided you can accept the risks and it does not wind up excluding most of the people who've expressed interest so far. My original plan was to sell 50 shares of 1m each, raising 50m and saving me most of the hassle of flipping salvage to build up capital; I changed my mind because I wanted a simpler scheme, less risk for the people involved, and to avoid one player investing much more than the others and thus claiming the majority of profits. I'm okay if most of the people interested push for a larger initial investment, but in my opinion 1m is sufficient.


So far, 5 people (DumpleBerry, Ruhe, MoonlyteShadow, Hell_Jumper, Manny) have expressed interest and Ironblade says he may be interested. I think 5-6 players is a pretty good number, so I'm no longer looking for interested parties unless one of the above people change their mind and drop out.

I think I'll go ahead with this. Proposal coming next, stay tuned!


 

Posted

Summary

This is a closed fund to invest in the crafting and sale of high-end Pool A and C enhancements.

This is on Virtue Server, for heroes only.

This fund will run for 10 weeks, from 17 August 2009 to 26 October 2009 after which it will be dissolved.


Business Plan

The business plan is to craft and sell expensive Pool A and C IO Set enhancements.

This is a low-risk, medium-volume market that provides reliable income. It is reasonable to expect profits of 6m-10m per enhancement (my target figure being 8m), and a sales volume of 20-30 enhancements a week. Therefore, I project total profits per month to be between 640m and 960m once we have achieved full production capacity.

There will be two phases to this plan. In order to produce 20-30 enhancements a week, we need significant capital that cannot be raised through investments alone. This money is needed to bid on raw materials, pay listing fees, experiment with new niches and provide a safety buffer should something go wrong. Therefore, at first the focus will be on growth, and secondary markets (such as flipping salvage and crafting of low end Pool A enhancements) may be tapped to bolster income. During this time all profits will be reinvested and no dividends will be paid out.

Once enough liquid funds are accumulated (the minimum acceptable is 200m, but much more may be required depending on the niches being targetted), income stabilizes; at this point the fund is mature, production is at full capacity and profits will go entirely to dividends. It's hard to say how much time will be needed to achieve this phase, since it depends on the amount needed, the items being produced and the performance of other market activities we use to get there. My target is to reach this phase within 2 weeks.


Disclosure of Risks

There is a risk that changes to game mechanics will kill the crafting market or severely and drastically reduce profits. In such a case, assets will be liquidated and money divided between investors.

There is a risk that I will abscond with investments and/or profits, or be unable, for whatever reason, to be able to log in, or dishonestly report performance or assets in order to scam. Upon contacting you to collect your initial investment, I will ask you for the name of another player you trust to act as your escrow agent. I will then deposit a sum equal to your investment with him or her, to be returned to me when the fund closes. This way, your initial investment at the very least will be safeguarded. However, there is no way to completely remove the risk of fraud.

I like to believe that no one would go to the trouble of ruining their good name and writing all this for a paltry amount of video game money. Still, I'll be frank and say that if you encounter such a scheme elsewhere it's likely to be a scam. If you have doubts about my trustworthiness, it's best that you don't participate.


Offering Details

To minimize the hassle of hunting down multiple people, as well as avoid spreading returns too thinly, the number of players involved will be very limited. For now, I'll accept up to 6 players. Each will invest exactly 1m per person.

At this point, enough people have expressed interest that I'm not looking for additional players unless one of the aforementioned people drops out.

No new players will be accepted once operations begin. This is to prevent spreading returns too thin, because after a certain level, income plateaus and adding more capital does not increase profits.

Dividends will be calculated (not necessarily collected; you can meet me at anytime to collect your money) on a bi-weekly basis after Monday morning maintenance ends provided that significant profits have accumulated that are not earmarked for reinvestment. Profits will be divided between all investors equally. No management fees are charged.


Exit Strategy

You may withdraw your investment at any time by contacting me.

If the business is no longer viable, all goods will be sold and the money divided between investors.

At the closure of the fund (26 Oct - after 10 weeks of operation) all goods will be sold and the money divided between investors. You have a 2 month grace period from the date of closure to collect this money and any remaining dividends owned to you. If at the end of the grace period you haven't collected your money AND I haven't received any notice from you, I'll assume you have left the game and the money will belong to me.


Launch Process

First, I need the people who have expressed interest above to confirm their interest and agreement with the above proposal. At this point no influence is to change hands yet. This is to allow some time for more discussion and so everyone gets their questions answered, and any disagreements can be worked out.

Once we have agreement, I will post here to arrange to meet players in-game to personally collect money. Once all funds are collected, operations begin. I expect the entire process to be done by the 17th at the latest, giving us a little more than a week to sort things out.

My in-game global is @Laevateinn. All dealings regarding this are to be done through one of my characters, named "Virtue Investments" (plural, without the quotes), Fire/WP Scrapper.


 

Posted

I'm going to throw my name in just on the off chance someone drops. I would have spoken up sooner, but I didn't realize it would be so limited in numbers.


 

Posted

I was also hoping this might be on freedom. I was going to throw in a million and then see if there was somebody I could give whatever my dividend might have been as an act of charity. Oh well. I am sure there's a lowbie toon in Atlas that could stand to benefit from a little bit of free inf.