A base of 16%!!!! very cool. My ice tank has a base of 17% (per stateman I believe) so I am very happy my brute has a base this high. I was concerned that it would be 12 or 13%.
This is excellent news. Thank you for taking the time to test it.
GF
Remember, this is just flame. I don't have any SL numbers, which are the most important.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
Like I said before in this thread, somebody already did that work for ya:
Kinetic shield test
They got 16% for S/L so it matches your results very well.
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Thanks, I hadn't looked at that.
Those numbers look good, even with a modest amount of +acc floating around,
So a relevant question might be, what are the real to hit chances of most typical mobs?
50 is probably too low. Is 55 a good baseline? 60?
If every drawn weapon is +5, and some sets get even more...
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
So to wrap this all up back to the PM by castle. There are only 2 possibilities:
1 Castle looked at the S/L numbers from pre boost.
2 The other poster's test was flawed and S/L is really 12% base.
I tend to favor 1 because of the pre boost numbers said to be around 12%.
In terms of damage mitigation, EA is a pretty good brute set. You trade a HP boost for the end Drain, and you are more vulnerable to any mob that uses a drawn weapon or has a bonus to ACC.
The only thing that bugs me with EA is energy protection. I still dont understand why the devs keep pushin these auto stinker powers. Maybe its just so they dont have to rebalance all the ATs if one gets something useful.
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[ QUOTE ]
So to wrap this all up back to the PM by castle. There are only 2 possibilities:
1 Castle looked at the S/L numbers from pre boost.
2 The other poster's test was flawed and S/L is really 12% base.
I tend to favor 1 because of the pre boost numbers said to be around 12%.
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I PM'd him again asking him if he looked at pre-boost #s, and if he could explain why people were getting 16%s . . . hopefully he'll chime in again and lay this to rest.
"Sometimes you have to roll the Hard Six." -- Adama
Teabagging Ms. Liberty - http://kk-comics.com/allmmproject/rsf21.jpg
When you test fire, use a Fire Thorn Caster rather than the council Flamethrower. Flamethrower gets a bonus to accuracy, but I don't believe that any of the powers a Fire Thorn Caster uses do (Fire Sword, Flares and Fire Blast are the set I think).
Most of the powers with accuracy buffs are documented. Look through the power descriptions and you will see it.
This is why I did a control test as well. There's no need to worry about accuracy data for the opponent that way. I'd reccommend that others do the same.
I think in general it's better to do the control, since we probably don't know how reliable or up to date any such data is going to be.
For the record, I can state that as of last night, the accuracy bonus for a council flamethrower was about 10% or so.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
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The only thing that bugs me with EA is energy protection. I still dont understand why the devs keep pushin these auto stinker powers. Maybe its just so they dont have to rebalance all the ATs if one gets something useful.
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because in devthink, they are good.
i switch the terms around and you tell me if you would take this.
a passive power with a base 12% defense against smash/lethal.
a passive power with a base 12% defense against energy/negative.
that's our toggles, right? well, devs say that 1resist=2defense. so the passives are as good as the toggles to them.
Level 50 is a journey, not a destination.
▲Scrapper Issues List - Going Rogue Edition▲
Isn't that plus unright?
I thought one def = 2 res
a passive power with 7.5 res would be a passive power with 3.75 def
Or am I intruding on your duckspeak?
Incidentally, if the passives were def, I'd double plus consider grabbing them.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
Yeah, stateman said 1% def was equal to 2% res, which is kind of true against whites (even con). + con it does not hold up but back to the passives discussion.
DF is 7.5% res which in their minds equals 3.8% def. Hmmm...Not so good, but that's because it doesn't stack with anything in the set.
They seem kind of "done" with stacking def. See the two sets EA and Nin (stalker), very little stacks within the set.
But I'm happy with the numbers and the cahnge to def seems to be a step in the right direction.
GF
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So when they fix the def versus higher conned mobs in I7, Def still has to worry about an abundent supply of mobs with +ACC from weapons. Does this skew the old 1 def = 2 res formula still?
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No.
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From what I understand that only works when most mobs have a 50% chance to hit.
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Yes, which in this case they do.
A couple of things:
The I7 Defense Scaler - which is really a ToHit Scaler (it doesn't alter how defense works at all) - wasn't put in specifically to honor the 1 Def = 2 Res rule per se. The problem was that no rule balanced defense and resistance sets simultaneously at even minions and +5 bosses and everything in between, because those other things were getting tohit bonuses, which mathematically might as well have been unresistable defense debuffs, of increasingly stronger values.
But there's two ways to make a villain "more accurate" - tohit increases, and accuracy bonuses. If the devs wanted villains to get more accurate at higher conning levels, they had two tools to use. They originally picked the one (tohit) that whacked defense harder than resistance, which made it hard to balance defense and resistance sets. And it didn't matter if they gave defense sets more alternate mitigation, because it just smudged the issue, not corrected it: anything that had a significant amount of mitigation tied up in defense would be penalized more than anything else by higher Rank or higher Level foes.
Accuracy bonuses are "fair" to defense, because an attack with an accuracy bonus increases the number of hits proportionately: something with +15% acc hits a defensive set 15% more often, and a resistance set 15% more often: equally higher net damage in the long run.
So in I7, higher Rank and Higher Level villains will get +ACC instead of +ToHit, because accuracy works the way we want: for villains to get more accurate, but not in a way harder on defense than other mitigation. The +ACC that villains already have (flamethrowers, gunslinger cones, etc) was already "fair" to defense sets relative to resistance and regeneration sets. Its a problem, but an equally tough problem for everyone.
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With the data so far it sounds like EA has about a MAX of 25% S/L/F/C/E/NE def. with both shields. Energy should be higher because both shields provide protection, but we have no data yet. That should be about the same as 50% resistance. But versus a mob with an accuracy boost that comes out to more like a 30-40% resistance depending on the boost.
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Lets start with something that has 25% defense, and another thing with 50% resistance, vs even minion. The defense set (on average) gets hit 25 times out of every 100 swings, the resistance set 50 times, but for half damage. Roughly even.
Now swap the minion for something with +25 accuracy. Now, the defense set gets hit 25% * 1.25 = 31.25 times on average for full damage, and the resistance set gets hit 50% * 1.25 = 62.5 times for half damage - still even. The 25% defense toon is still getting (on average) the same damage mitigation as the 50% resistance toon, even with the higher accuracy. If the minion was swapped for an I6 LT, with a 7.5% tohit boost instead, the results would be different.
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I'm not convinced that the average to hit really is 50. I think it's probably higher,
I think because of that 1 def probably = 1.6-1.7 res or something similar
I think that even so, the def values for EA might start to look very good after I7...
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
Thank you Arcanaville, I was hoping you would stop by and help us out!
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I'm not convinced that the average to hit really is 50. I think it's probably higher,
I think because of that 1 def probably = 1.6-1.7 res or something similar
I think that even so, the def values for EA might start to look very good after I7...
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you're right. right now, the tohit for minions is 50, Lieuts is about 60, Bosses about 66.
however the defense change puts them all at 50tohit and instead gives them acc bonuses.
Level 50 is a journey, not a destination.
▲Scrapper Issues List - Going Rogue Edition▲
Once issue 7 goes live, 25% defense will be equivalent to 50% resistance in in terms of average damage taken. It is not that way now because of how the accuracy calculations scale for +levels, lieutenants, and bosses.
However, that is not the entire story.
Lets say a mob attacks me 20 times. With 25% defense, on average he will hit me 5 times. With 50% resistance, on average he will hit me 10 times for half damage. In each case I take 25% of the incoming damage.
However, ask this question: how likely is it that I will take 50% of the incoming damage?
For the resistance case, I have to be hit all 20 times. The odds of that are around 1 in 1,000,000 (2^20).
For the defense case, I have to be hit 10 (or more) out of 20 times. The chance of that happening is around 1 in 100, which is an astounding 10,000 times more likely than the resistance case.
So, if you the question you are asking is "what is the average damage taken?" 25% defense is the same as 50% resistance. However, if the question you ask is "how likely am I to die?" then 25% defense is no where near as good as 50% resistance. Generally, most players care more about the second question than the first.
I am (slowly) working on a guide for comparing defense to resistance based on the probability of dying rather than average damage. Unfortunatly, the relationship is not as simple as you might like, both because it is mathematically a tad subtle and also because the answer varies depending on the scenario.
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I'm not convinced that the average to hit really is 50. I think it's probably higher,
I think because of that 1 def probably = 1.6-1.7 res or something similar
I think that even so, the def values for EA might start to look very good after I7...
[/ QUOTE ]
you're right. right now, the tohit for minions is 50, Lieuts is about 60, Bosses about 66.
however the defense change puts them all at 50tohit and instead gives them acc bonuses.
[/ QUOTE ]
Even with minions, and not regarding LTs or bosses, I think weapon sets and to hit bonuses are fairly prevalent. Consider if every drawn weapon set has +5%, and that's just to start.
I think the average minion to hit is a fair way from 50 if this is considered. I'm going to guess the average is at least 55, probably more.
That said, this obviously depends on what you're fighting.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
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I'm not convinced that the average to hit really is 50. I think it's probably higher,
I think because of that 1 def probably = 1.6-1.7 res or something similar
I think that even so, the def values for EA might start to look very good after I7...
[/ QUOTE ]
you're right. right now, the tohit for minions is 50, Lieuts is about 60, Bosses about 66.
however the defense change puts them all at 50tohit and instead gives them acc bonuses.
[/ QUOTE ]
Even with minions, and not regarding LTs or bosses, I think weapon sets and to hit bonuses are fairly prevalent. Consider if every drawn weapon set has +5%, and that's just to start.
I think the average minion to hit is a fair way from 50 if this is considered. I'm going to guess the average is at least 55, probably more.
That said, this obviously depends on what you're fighting.
[/ QUOTE ]
Many things have accuracy bonuses, but so long as they are accuracy bonuses and not to-hit bonuses, it doesn't affect the balance between defense and resistance.
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I'm not convinced that the average to hit really is 50. I think it's probably higher,
I think because of that 1 def probably = 1.6-1.7 res or something similar
I think that even so, the def values for EA might start to look very good after I7...
[/ QUOTE ]
you're right. right now, the tohit for minions is 50, Lieuts is about 60, Bosses about 66.
however the defense change puts them all at 50tohit and instead gives them acc bonuses.
[/ QUOTE ]
Even with minions, and not regarding LTs or bosses, I think weapon sets and to hit bonuses are fairly prevalent. Consider if every drawn weapon set has +5%, and that's just to start.
I think the average minion to hit is a fair way from 50 if this is considered. I'm going to guess the average is at least 55, probably more.
That said, this obviously depends on what you're fighting.
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Many things have accuracy bonuses, but so long as they are accuracy bonuses and not to-hit bonuses, it doesn't affect the balance between defense and resistance.
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Fair enough, I stand corrected.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
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For the defense case, I have to be hit 10 (or more) out of 20 times. The chance of that happening is around 1 in 100, which is an astounding 10,000 times more likely than the resistance case.
So, if you the question you are asking is "what is the average damage taken?" 25% defense is the same as 50% resistance. However, if the question you ask is "how likely am I to die?" then 25% defense is no where near as good as 50% resistance.
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You're going to drag us all through binomial theory aren't you.
truly thou art evil!
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
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For the defense case, I have to be hit 10 (or more) out of 20 times. The chance of that happening is around 1 in 100, which is an astounding 10,000 times more likely than the resistance case.
So, if you the question you are asking is "what is the average damage taken?" 25% defense is the same as 50% resistance. However, if the question you ask is "how likely am I to die?" then 25% defense is no where near as good as 50% resistance.
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You're going to drag us all through binomial theory aren't you.
truly thou art evil!
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Average lifetime analysis is a Markov Chain analysis, not so much binomial theory. Last time I said that, someone actually did it. I'm pseudo-lazy: I didn't want to calculate it, but I was willing to write a simulator to model it.
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Actually I was considering the odds of different numbers of successes out of a given number of trils, like the odds of having, say 8 out of 20 minions miss you in an alpha strike.
and I'm far too indolent to do it, but this works prety well:
binomial calculator
I'm not sure but you might find your Markov analysis here...
statistical calculators
Edit: Oh and I forgot to admit, I've never actually heard of a Markov chain before, or if I have, it was over a decade ago and I'm blocking.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
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For the defense case, I have to be hit 10 (or more) out of 20 times. The chance of that happening is around 1 in 100, which is an astounding 10,000 times more likely than the resistance case.
So, if you the question you are asking is "what is the average damage taken?" 25% defense is the same as 50% resistance. However, if the question you ask is "how likely am I to die?" then 25% defense is no where near as good as 50% resistance.
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There is also a flip side to all of this.
Yes, the def set is more likely to perish in normal combat, but it's also more likely to survive in harsh circumstances.
Let's say I get carried away, and charge into a room and aggro two large spawns (no, not me I'd NEVER DO THAT). I turn and run like hell, but everyone gets their one shot off. For argument's sake let's say there are 20 minions (I know, there would be LTs and bosses, but that's going to make the math far too complicated for me) so:
Let's assume that I can only survive if I take 20% of the damage or less. Same sets as above, 25 def, 50 res, no accbuffs, nothing weird.
For the resistance set, I'd need to be hit 8 times or less. The odds of being hit 8 times or less out of 20 with a 50 50 chance of each hit landing are about 25%.
For the defence set, I'd need to be hit 4 times or less. This sounds prety unlikely, but with a .25 chance of each hit landing, the odds are acutally not too bad at all.
The odds of being hit 4 or fewer times out of 20 with a 25% chance of each hit landing are 41%.
You could easily argue that the cost of potentially falling on your face when all should be well, is far greater than the compensation of sometimes surviving a daft mistake.
I completely agree,
I also found while working this out that the circumstances where you do get better survivability out of a def set are relatively few and far between. I had to choose my conditions rather carefully to make this work.
but that compensation IS there.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!
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So to wrap this all up back to the PM by castle. There are only 2 possibilities:
1 Castle looked at the S/L numbers from pre boost.
2 The other poster's test was flawed and S/L is really 12% base.
I tend to favor 1 because of the pre boost numbers said to be around 12%.
[/ QUOTE ]
I PM'd him again asking him if he looked at pre-boost #s, and if he could explain why people were getting 16%s . . . hopefully he'll chime in again and lay this to rest.
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alright, the awesome TopDoc analysed my control test against the luddite minion weilding the cross bow. After factoring out the streakbreaker, the accuracy of the white luddite minion was 50.1% over ~3700 attacks.
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5303 attacks
2049 hits
38.64% hit rate
11.36% defense in Kin Shield
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that's the original stuff i got, but doesn't take into account the streakbreaker. So it does in fact look like 12.75% defense is the current base for Kinetic Shield.
i still have no freakin clue how the elemental and energy defenses break down between power and kin.
Level 50 is a journey, not a destination.
▲Scrapper Issues List - Going Rogue Edition▲
Well, no data on the other shields yet, and I'll be running EC tonight against another council flamer, as long as things go well. I'll probably stop for a few days after that, I do want to try the pocket D quests while I can.
Just to summarize, Yes, I think we're going to find that even after I7, ACC bonuses are going to be as much of a problem as they are now.
Certainly in the above test, they are a huge problem.
First off lets use the exact numbers I got,
With Shield
Shots 2845
hits 1026
Without shield
Shots 2668
hits 1649
Those are test accuracies of 36 and 61.8 respectively ( I'll use what I'm guessing the true numbers are next)
This would imply a def of 25.8. The power shield was socketed with 3SOs, 2 at +1, 1 at even. The enhancement page indicated a bonus of 56.3.
This would indicate a base defence of 16.5,
I'm going to take a guess and say the true numbers might actually be 35% and 60%, for a def of 25. Why? I just like round numbers, and I think these are within a reasonable statistical margin.
This guess would indicate a base def of 15.99, lets say 16. I'd even caution that a value as low as 15 can't be ruled out by this data, the tests were just too short. BUT
EDIT see end for correct numbers
What I first wrote was:
Either 15 or 16.5, these numbers sound EXCELLENT if nothing else is considered. Yet even with 3 SOs, this results in a damage reduction of only 28% against an even con minion. Bosses will only be worse.
We don't know exactly how I7 will work, but from what little has been surmised, I'm not sure that I7 will compensate for this weakness.
EDIT, however:
forgot to calculate something important here.
The actual damage reduction would't be 28%, it would be much higher. It would be 1- .36/.618.
Very silly of me. Sigh
this gives about 42% damage reduction which is actually reasonable.
The cake is a lie! The cake is a lie!