NC Soft's BIG MISTAKE
By
Another_Fan,
Posted on: 2012-11-17 06:31 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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I know my spending rates went up with F2P too, but I don't think we can draw any conclusions given that anyone still posting here has to be an outlier.
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Originally Posted by Valdous
It's probably true to an extent here. I know that if such a contribution from myself and others would save our game, I'd drop $300 today. I would have loved to see a lifetime sub to this game. They would still have gotten my money because I bought a lot more in the store than a monthly stipend covered. I hardly ever had a sub going but I had everything in every reward tier and still continued to buy points in the store, so I largely didn't need a sub. That's where they made their money from me, and it definitely averaged out to more than $15 a month.
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There is a risk behind it by going for a rate that is *higher* than the "industry", unless it is something where you are operating at the *very high* end of stuff, where practically everything can be viewed as "niche".|
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter
An interesting question, but who knows if it's even true that they wouldn't? I don't believe any company has ever tried it, unless you want to count "lifetime memberships." But I've seen those as more being about inflating initial sales, rather than trying to extend long-term viability.
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Raise your hands if you would have been willing to play a *brand new* MMO that cost you $25/month?
Now, if you are in the niche that the MMO is designed for, you could well stump the money... especially if it is perfect for you.
However, the fact that the sub price is $10 more than the typical MMO price, can and does scare of the "passer by"... the one who is not so sure about it.
They could well take the risk and see if they like it... or they could just walk on by and see what else is out there for a price that they like.
I spoke to a friend of mine around the time of TSW launch, and I pointed out that TSW in the EU is the most expensive MMO out there for subscription fees.
It is more expensive than WoW, DDO, LORTRO, CoX, Tabula Rassa, Warhammer Online subscriptions.
Champions ONline is more expensive than those games
Eve Online is more expensive than those games
The Secret World is *even more* expensive. Sure, it might only be rougly 30% more expensive than the WoW/CoX sub rate, but that is a premium that appears to have backfired amongst my friends.
They all wanted to play it, but the fact that the sub fee (and that you had to buy the game in the 1st place) was far higher than other MMO's out there put them off from the game.
So niche does have it problems, and you cannot just charge more to make it stay afloat. Niche means that you might have to swallow your pride and charge *less* than the competition and grow from there.... which was the conclusion that me and my friend came to, especialy for MMO's, why don;t you release a game with a lower subscription fee than the others.
This does happen, and they are *typically* for the "kid MMO's" out there (Clone Wars for example i believe is $5.99/month or something like that).
Wouldn't it be interesting to see a *brand new* MMO release with a lower than $15/month subscription fee and it *was* a niche title?
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Not this again. Let me cut and paste.|
Originally Posted by SpyralPegacyon
Calling Father Xmas, Father Xmas to this thread...
Their 'BIG MISTAKE' was selling their investors the sun, the stars, the moon, and the Voyager spacecraft on how Blade & Soul and Guild Wars 2 were gonna sell. Sales failed to meet way too lofty projections, and....  "Sell! Sell! Sell!" |
NCSoft stock has dropped over 25% since the third quarter results came out last week with the volume of stock being traded over 10x normal the first day.
When Aion had it's first full quarter of sales revenue 1Q 2009, it earned more than either Lineage or Lineage II while those games maintained their previous quarters revenues. Year over year 1Q sales went up 50%. YoY 1Q profit went up over 300%. At the beginning of 2009, their stock was only at 55,000 a share. Due to all the positive buzz, by the time the 1Q 2009 report came out, the stock already tripled in price to 179,000 in only five months.
Blade & Soul's first quarter numbers painted a completely different picture. In it's first full quarter, the sum of sales revenue of Blade & Soul, Aion, Lineage and Lineage II was within 1/2 of a percent of Aion, Lineage and Lineage II's sales revenue from the previous quarter. It didn't add any new sales revenue but appear to swipe/shift it from the other three. Not good for a new "home market game".
Guild Wars 2 had higher sales revenue in it's first month than the whole quarter sales of any of the above four games. GW2 isn't necessarily a "home market game". The original Guild Wars did alright when it was pushing out paid expansions but once that stopped it's sales revenues fell dramatically. So I'm betting the analysts are looking at GW2 for only a few years of good sales instead of it being a long term source of revenue.
So institutions and other investors still holding onto NCSoft stock during the decline leading up to the release of the 3Q numbers, hoping they would be great with both new games adding revenue saw that didn't happen so they dumped it after riding it down from it's high in October of 2011 of 380,500. The stock closed Friday at 156,000.
Also Blade & Soul isn't out in the west yet. It's not even in Japan yet.
Father Xmas - Level 50 Ice/Ice Tanker - Victory
$725 and $1350 parts lists --- My guide to computer components
Tempus unum hominem manet
Oddly enough, NCsoft stocks are still in the "buy" column.
"Samual_Tow - Be disappointed all you want, people. You just don't appreciate the miracles that are taking place here."
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Of course, it's "cheap" now.
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Originally Posted by Anti_Proton
Oddly enough, NCsoft stocks are still in the "buy" column.
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Father Xmas - Level 50 Ice/Ice Tanker - Victory
$725 and $1350 parts lists --- My guide to computer components
Tempus unum hominem manet
I guess this all begs the question, "Do niche MMO's actually need to charge more?"
I think that's a very subjective question, and depends on the nature of the game. It probably rides on the assumption that any game, whether it targets a niche crowd or not, must have graphics that are just as good, just as much content, just as many worlds, etc, as a mainstream game. This is not universally true. Minecraft is a good example of that, which despite how primitive it is in certain ways, ended up being mainstream anyway.
Additionally, every super-successful MMO that was released in the pre-WoW era, would be considered a niche game now with mediocre sales. So perhaps it isn't really an issue, provided the business who does it can do so without any delusions of WoW-grandeur.
Exactly what I was about to post... While the question of paying more is an interesting one, it is not really the solution (certainly not the only solution).
The problem in this case is really the numbers goal.
Anyway, Tim totally beat me to the punch on this, so I'll not rehash it at length. Chasing WoW numbers is not necessary and the numbers involved in previous mmorpgs (and some current ones) are plenty profitable and capable of being successful and satisfactory.
@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game. This should say it all. It should be a massive role playing game. When you play it, you should feel that you are engulfed in that world. The better games will leave little to take you out of character, where you literally have to "come up for air" when you log off. This is close to what we had here, you could go deep into being a superhero, or you could play for stats, but the choice was yours. As a developer, you learn the theme of your game and you learn how much interest there is in your genre and at that point your game will live or die on it's own merits and not whether or not it is "niche".
"Samual_Tow - Be disappointed all you want, people. You just don't appreciate the miracles that are taking place here."
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I think it is wortwhile pointing out that if those games released *now* in their current state, I don't think they would necessarily be as successful though... I know that graphics are not everything, but considering that graphical fidelity has improved exponentially over the past decade, it is one thing that can put a lot of players off, especially if you are expecting players to pay "industry" prices.|
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter
I guess this all begs the question, "Do niche MMO's actually need to charge more?"
I think that's a very subjective question, and depends on the nature of the game. It probably rides on the assumption that any game, whether it targets a niche crowd or not, must have graphics that are just as good, just as much content, just as many worlds, etc, as a mainstream game. This is not universally true. Minecraft is a good example of that, which despite how primitive it is in certain ways, ended up being mainstream anyway. Additionally, every super-successful MMO that was released in the pre-WoW era, would be considered a niche game now with mediocre sales. So perhaps it isn't really an issue, provided the business who does it can do so without any delusions of WoW-grandeur. |
However, those older MMO's do have the current advantage of a player base that has stuck with them over several years, and are there because there are things about the game that they like and cannot find elsewhere.
Kinda like City of Heroes for a long time actually.
But releasing those games *in their current* state as a brand new title nowadays? Big risk to be honest.
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looks that article is what killed their value even more. Until the 7th there seemed to be a steady decline, then after the 7th steep decline. But those that bought stock in mid 2010 were hit hardest. Those that bought in the 2007, at least late 2007 or 5 years ago to be exact, are still ahead by a bit and some of them might be selling to cash in on their earnings before losing anything.
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Originally Posted by Target_Zero
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-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard.  Never change, E_L! |
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buy cheap sell high
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Originally Posted by Father Xmas
Of course, it's "cheap" now.
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-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
Honestly, I think older/lesser graphics can be done quite well in ways that may be more appealing to some niches; more importantly, acceptable to most players so long as the game is good enough.
There's a certain level of (what I'll call) generic graphics that can serve games very well. The hyper-realistic is not always best... and the hyper-stylized can have really bad problems as well (some will like them and some will simply not).
Just as an example, the graphics of City Of Heroes was almost a nice middle ground... lookswise. It's really (mostly) the engine that is at fault for keeping the graphics limited.
I think there's an acceptance of 16-bit-like style that could take off under the right direction. And, absolutely, 16-bit is obviously way too low, but I'm just using an extreme example.
In the end, it's all about being clever and using and utilizing what you can to make the entire product something people will find worthwhile.
Being clever, really, is the hardest part and the reason why the people with the money just want to use safe, proven formulas. Unfortunately, the people who want to limit their endeavors to safe, proven formulas want to be received as the next big groundbreaking phenomenon. 
@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
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The question, of course, depends on what the niche is and how big it is.|
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter
I guess this all begs the question, "Do niche MMO's actually need to charge more?"
I think that's a very subjective question, and depends on the nature of the game. It probably rides on the assumption that any game, whether it targets a niche crowd or not, must have graphics that are just as good, just as much content, just as many worlds, etc, as a mainstream game. This is not universally true. Minecraft is a good example of that, which despite how primitive it is in certain ways, ended up being mainstream anyway. Additionally, every super-successful MMO that was released in the pre-WoW era, would be considered a niche game now with mediocre sales. So perhaps it isn't really an issue, provided the business who does it can do so without any delusions of WoW-grandeur. |
First, whenever you're looking at numbers, remove WOW from the calculation. WOW is a beast unto itself and while it's always possible someday an MMO could break out and reach those numbers, defining success as "achieving WOW numbers" and failure as "not achieving WOW numbers" is pretty much guaranteeing failure.
With WOW out of the picture, the question is, is the niche big enough that there will be players paying enough money to keep the game going. Just being a niche doesn't mean there aren't enough people to do that. To take one example of an MMO that people have been expecting for a long time, let's assume that next March, surprise launch, is Pokemon World, the Pokemon MMO. Pokemon players are a niche, but they are a niche that keeps going and keeps spending. If done well, this is a license to print money. And you don't have to expand the niche much, lot of people know about it.
Another niche game would be one I've wanted for years, an MMO version of Paranoia. Unfortunately, it's a really small niche, because nobody knows the game. There would be ways to expand the game beyond "Paranoia players" to "people who like SF comedy", might be able to make it.
(For those who don't know Paranoia, think Logans Run as a Marx Brothers film. Alpha Complex is the only surviving megaplex after a thermonuclear war (well, not really). It is buried underground, and is run by Friend Computer, going to the surface would be instant death (well, not really). We all love Friend Computer because not to love Friend Computer would be treason and traitors are executed. You love Friend Computer don't you? All births are handled by the clone banks managed by Friend Computer who of course manages it perfectly. If there are mutants, it would indicate that Friend Computer is not perfect and so the mutants are traitors (every player character is a mutant). Friend Computer provides all we would wish for and manages all, so any secret society would suggest that Friend Computer isn't providing all we would wish and thus any member of a secret society is a traitor (every player character is a member of a secret society). It is the job of any good citizen to report all traitors for immediate execution. If a Paranoia DM doesn't have the players ready to shoot each other on a regular basis, he's not trying.)
My arcs are constantly shifting, just search for GadgetDon for the latest.
The world beware! I've started a blog
GadgetMania Under Attack: The Digg Lockout
Heh, that's another thing though... are all of the players out there who want a modern mmorpg that does not follow the WoW model really only a niche?
In marketing terms... perhaps. Numbers-wise... quite possibly not.
@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
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True, and I knew that would be brought up. But I'd say that you're paying a premium just by playing an MMO, as opposed to your standard out-of-the-box game (again using Civ as an example, I know folks who played that game for thousands of hours for a LOT cheaper than what I paid for CoH). |
Originally Posted by Brillig
Except this is pretty much what every MMO costs, so even if you feel like you were paying a premium, you really weren't.
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And I will admit that I don't keep tabs on other MMO so I don't know all of their pricing structures, though it seems like with F2P and what I hear of GW2 (buy box, play free) that paying a monthly fee is not as standard as before? I know I certainly had a choice of dropping to F2P with CoH, but I opted to continue paying a monthly premium.
Suggestions:
Super Packs Done Right
Influence Sink: IO Level Mod/Recrafting
Random Merit Rolls: Scale cost by Toon Level
I think a game can be successful relative to the size of WoW. WoW has a massive population but I bet that it also cost massive amount of money to run.
The place that it seems that many games mess up is that they have the ability to grow but not the ability to shrink as easily as player numbers start to drop.
10000 people coming or going in WoW is not even noticed. But in many games, that could be a noticable number. And then 10000 more and a more steady decline but the game is running with the same cost output as it was as if running peak. Major updates coming otu at the same pace if not faster even with lower population maybe due to the fact they dont want orun off even more people who is used to getting more updates often. Yet, as players leave that cuts deeper and deeper into profits, compared to if they cloud and or did adjust when it's obvious that the player base has peaked and has been on a decline, they could in thoery enjoy the same profit percentage as before and depending on how thye cut back, even the same amount of profits for a while even when the population is on the decline.
Many games had first crack before WoW came along and at least one continued to grow even after WoW was released so I dont think WoW had that much of an effect on population as given credit for many games especially niche games that is not even in WoW's alley. Like COH, released before WoW, population grew even after WoW hit markets and became a behemoth, and declined after a while. The players that flocked to WoW, they probably wasnt looking for a super hero game. And being the only super hero game, there was no reason why this game wasnt the big gorilla of this side of the market. CO DCUO and the rest of those types didnt even exist until years later. Maybe there just isnt as much interest in a super hero game as thought. I mean as many says, a super hero MMO could not get better than COH. So what happened?
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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yeah but can you get at least about 50-70% of players to do that?
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Originally Posted by gec72
$15/mo for seven years, $15/mo for a second account for six years, box expansions for each account, assorted booster packs...I don't know, but that seems to be a fair premium.
/would have been much better off financially just playing the dickens out of the Civ series |
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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As an idea, for the games like City of Heroes in terms of pricing structure (ie subscription and F2P setup), they are all pretty much the same, especially if you go from the US$ account side (there are differences for EU/UK account holders on occasion, even when the US$ is the same, dont expect the EU/UK people to pay the same across the games).|
Originally Posted by gec72
True, and I knew that would be brought up. But I'd say that you're paying a premium just by playing an MMO, as opposed to your standard out-of-the-box game (again using Civ as an example, I know folks who played that game for thousands of hours for a LOT cheaper than what I paid for CoH).
And I will admit that I don't keep tabs on other MMO so I don't know all of their pricing structures, though it seems like with F2P and what I hear of GW2 (buy box, play free) that paying a monthly fee is not as standard as before? I know I certainly had a choice of dropping to F2P with CoH, but I opted to continue paying a monthly premium. |
I think that you when you look *across* several genres of games, then yes, paying a subscription fee is a premium.
However, if you look at it from just within the MMO setup, $15 is the going rate.
Now for a *single* account, would you be prepared to spend $20/$25/$30 a month when other games are charging less?
Even if it is a niche title, there is only so far you can drive the price up before you just start pricing people out of playing the game, even if it is free to obtain.
I do feel that Buy to Play (Guild Wars model) or F2P/Hybrid is the way forward for the industry, but I also feel that lowering the "typical" subscription fee for games that choose to be subscription only is another avenue for publishers/developers to look at.
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Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter
Niche just doesn't fit the modern popular definition of business though. A stable business has becoming nothing, even being called a poor business. It's only a business if it is always growing (or at least trying to). Niche 'anything' doesn't work for that.
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I think you nailed it. If it's not growing into the next big beast, it doesn't matter that it's pulling in enough money to pay its costs and give the shareholders a dividend - it needs to do MOAR NAO PLX!
This is the problem of corporations.
If CoH was run by a small unit of about 40 staff in a less expensive location it'd probably be doing really nicely and making that management team a good living.
Thelonious Monk
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yeah.
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Originally Posted by Scarlet Shocker
I think you nailed it. If it's not growing into the next big beast, it doesn't matter that it's pulling in enough money to pay its costs and give the shareholders a dividend - it needs to do MOAR NAO PLX!
This is the problem of corporations. If CoH was run by a small unit of about 40 staff in a less expensive location it'd probably be doing really nicely and making that management team a good living. |
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L! |
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Except the whole thing with a niche is that it's a niche. When you lower the price, you're hoping to gain more consumers, which isn't going to happen because you're a niche.|
Originally Posted by Gangrel_EU
Even if it is a niche title, there is only so far you can drive the price up before you just start pricing people out of playing the game, even if it is free to obtain. I do feel that Buy to Play (Guild Wars model) or F2P/Hybrid is the way forward for the industry, but I also feel that lowering the "typical" subscription fee for games that choose to be subscription only is another avenue for publishers/developers to look at. |
The thing with a niche is you have a limited base, so you have to charge enough to make a reasonable profit even with that base, which means more per user. And if the consumers won't bear the freight, then the niche isn't big enough or rich enough to support your product.
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If a game today had 200k subs, that would be considered niche. Pre-WoW, that would be considered a smash hit.
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Originally Posted by Brillig
Except the whole thing with a niche is that it's a niche. When you lower the price, you're hoping to gain more consumers, which isn't going to happen because you're a niche.
The thing with a niche is you have a limited base, so you have to charge enough to make a reasonable profit even with that base, which means more per user. And if the consumers won't bear the freight, then the niche isn't big enough or rich enough to support your product. |
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No, it's the problem of publishers. And unlike most, I don't mean that in a pejorative sense.|
Originally Posted by Scarlet Shocker
I think you nailed it. If it's not growing into the next big beast, it doesn't matter that it's pulling in enough money to pay its costs and give the shareholders a dividend - it needs to do MOAR NAO PLX!
This is the problem of corporations. If CoH was run by a small unit of about 40 staff in a less expensive location it'd probably be doing really nicely and making that management team a good living. |
Publishers have a problem in that they might back ten games, one becomes a hit, two more do okay, and the other seven were money holes. It's a circumstance where you have to keep chasing hits, because you swing and miss so often. (Let's not forget that Paragon Studios failed on new projects multiple times on NCSoft's watch.)
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About the location and the staffing, maybe it would, maybe not. But I wholeheartedly agree with the shareholder comment though. If you're someone who cares about what you're doing, and not just involved to get rich, don't ever go public. Going public just begs the world of investors to turn you into a clone.
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Originally Posted by Scarlet Shocker
I think you nailed it. If it's not growing into the next big beast, it doesn't matter that it's pulling in enough money to pay its costs and give the shareholders a dividend - it needs to do MOAR NAO PLX!
This is the problem of corporations. If CoH was run by a small unit of about 40 staff in a less expensive location it'd probably be doing really nicely and making that management team a good living. |
/would have been much better off financially just playing the dickens out of the Civ series