Zwillinger's "Soon" scale...
By
Agent White,
Posted on: 2012-02-28 14:13 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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Originally Posted by Tyger
I'd settle for a "due date".
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At about 4cms dilation, within the next 48 hours. Probably sooner
Thelonious Monk
He just said live on Ustream that it's Very Soon/Imminent™ away 
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Well according to our "decoder ring" if it's Imminent then it's looking like March 6th is going to be the day. |
Originally Posted by HardRider
He just said live on Ustream that it's Very Soon/Imminent away
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Actually, he said it wasn't Imminent yet, but close. So March 8 would be still more than a week away, but close to being Imminent
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Originally Posted by Lothic
Well according to our "decoder ring" if it's Imminent then it's looking like March 6th is going to be the day.
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Well, there is that whole pesky aspect of the work week as opposed to a 7-day-period week.|
Originally Posted by Snow Globe
Actually, he said it wasn't Imminent yet, but close. So March 8 would be still more than a week away, but close to being Imminent
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So, I'd suspect that March 6th is still a possibility, even within the confines of Zwill's decoded meanings...
@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
I think the scale doesn't fully account for all possible Zwillinger state machine transitions. For example, I believe Soon means "within two to four weeks it will either arrive, or be Soon." Soon is the Xeno's arrow of development. It has to get there eventually, but it does not appear to be getting any closer at any instant you observe it.
The scale is also missing the state "Noted." Which means "Black Pebble is watching me as I type/say this, and any more demerits and I lose my parking space."
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Indeed... A watched Soon™ doesn't get any closer. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
...It has to get there eventually, but it does not appear to be getting any closer at any instant you observe it.
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@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
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That's why Zwillinger uses meme-hints. He knows that Black Pebble hasn't learned how to interpret human use of humor.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
I think the scale doesn't fully account for all possible Zwillinger state machine transitions. For example, I believe Soon means "within two to four weeks it will either arrive, or be Soon." Soon is the Xeno's arrow of development. It has to get there eventually, but it does not appear to be getting any closer at any instant you observe it.
The scale is also missing the state "Noted." Which means "Black Pebble is watching me as I type/say this, and any more demerits and I lose my parking space." |
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the sun will expand and consume the earth in two to four weeks?!
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Originally Posted by ketch
you have to look at things in context. Soon the sun will expand and consume the earth. The heat death of the universe is not on the radar.
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I think ketch was exaggerating where "Soon" means "In 5 billion years."
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Originally Posted by KritikalMass
the sun will expand and consume the earth in two to four weeks?!
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@Zethustra
"Now at midnight all the agents and the superhuman crew come out
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
and round up everyone that knows more than they do"-Dylan
Too bad they removed the scale. It wasn't that much off!
Thought for the day:
"Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment."
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I assume the scale is piecewise logarithmic, with each segment between categories using a different log base that may change each time the scale is referenced.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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THAT, is truely troubling |
Originally Posted by MoltenSlowa
Could be worse. Could be valve time.
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wow!
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lolHalf Life 3 |
Originally Posted by MoltenSlowa
Could be worse. Could be valve time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zwillinger
GG, I would tell you that "I am killing you with my mind", but I couldn't find an emoticon to properly express my sentiment.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Captain_Photon
NOTE: The Incarnate System is basically farming for IOs on a larger scale, and with more obtrusive lore.
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Actually there is some legal stuff here. Back in the 80's major software publishers were getting threatened with lawsuits due to "vaporware". A small company would publish something cool and then a big boy would say, "yeah we are publishing that later this year" so everyone would wait for the big boy version to come, dry up revenue for the small guy who would go out of business/get bought out/lose its key developers and lo and behold the big boy didn't actually put out the product that year....and sometimes they never did.
Anyway, that's why developers don't like to give firm dates for stuff.
pressure/
grace
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Yeah there might some legal issues like that involved. But as a software engineer IRL I tend to think the explaination is a bit more straightforward than that.|
Originally Posted by Wildcat-
Actually there is some legal stuff here. Back in the 80's major software publishers were getting threatened with lawsuits due to "vaporware". A small company would publish something cool and then a big boy would say, "yeah we are publishing that later this year" so everyone would wait for the big boy version to come, dry up revenue for the small guy who would go out of business/get bought out/lose its key developers and lo and behold the big boy didn't actually put out the product that year....and sometimes they never did.
Anyway, that's why developers don't like to give firm dates for stuff. |
Anybody who's worked on software development in a commercial setting knows that there's always the difference between sticking to a firm schedule and the realities of getting software to work reasonably bug-free. While I'm quite sure the Devs at Paragon Studios always do their best to get things finished "on-time" there is always a need to account for unforeseen problems or complications.
What this means in practical terms is that the Devs of this game probably never quite know exactly when a build is ready enough to launch until almost the last possible moment. I used the phrase "ready enough" because in reality this code is never done - there are always bug fixes and updates being worked into it on a constant basis. Thus the real trick of knowing when a Issue is ready is not waiting until -all- the bugs are fixed but when they are fixed well enough to have the minimum impact to the fewest numbers of players. That's the moment of truth when they push it out the door.
So in keeping to the history of what we've seen in the last 21 Issues we will likely never get a set "due date" announcement for any Issue much earlier than perhaps a few days before at best. This allows them to remain the most flexible for working on the code without having to "revise" previous announcements that turned out to be impossible to meet.
Basically by never pre-announcing Issue releases they never have to upset people when their plans inevitably change at the last moment.
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Actually it's less the competition they're worried about and more the fact that fans will hold them to their word even when they have to backpedal due to complications.
if Zwill said 'I22 launches Monday, March 5th' and March 5th rolls around and it isn't live because, say, there were unforeseen complications pushing it to live and they had to roll it back to fix it, there would be hell to pay from all the fans that geared up to jump into I22 on Monday. It does not matter there's a good reason, people take any firm dates or direct statements as immutable facts. That's entirely why you see on the coffee streams when they're asked something about an upcoming feature (issue release date, incarnate slots, new zones, etc) they have to give either a nebulous answer or 'no comment'. The moment they say anything that borders on definite, fans take it as word of god. Like if Zwill were to say "I22 will be blue" and it turns out green in the end, there will be people screaming for blue.
Just see all the questions they still get about City Vault even after repeatedly saying the project is dead and never coming into the game.
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There is more truth to this statement than you realize...
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Originally Posted by Zombie Man
That's why Zwillinger uses meme-hints. He knows that Black Pebble hasn't learned how to interpret human use of humor.
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Andy Belford
Community Manager
Paragon Studios
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I think it boils down to the idea that software is not like a physical product that you can predictably schedule to roll off the assembly line on exactly such-n-such date. Sadly most players don't seem to realize that and are unwilling to accept the idea that delays almost always happen in some form or fashion in this kind of development environment. *shrugs*
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Originally Posted by Agent White
if Zwill said 'I22 launches Monday, March 5th' and March 5th rolls around and it isn't live because, say, there were unforeseen complications pushing it to live and they had to roll it back to fix it, there would be hell to pay from all the fans that geared up to jump into I22 on Monday. It does not matter there's a good reason, people take any firm dates or direct statements as immutable facts.
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Zwill is using Snow Globe's scale. Things have gone recursive.
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You broke it.
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Originally Posted by Zwillinger
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