Why LotG?

This is just idle curiosity, but when looking through the market I realized that the Luck of the Gambler global recharge IO was at the exact same price it was when I last had reason to check, and moreover, had been that price whenever I checked for at least the last year. I was wondering what people thought was the reason for such remarkable consistency. Coincidence? A (relatively) small pool of players generating most of the supply and roughly agreeing on its value? Consistent demand due to people trying to make powers perma? Most builds having at least one power that can slot defense and there being very little that is better to do with a single slot? Something else? All of the above?

I admit that I am part of the problem. I take random rolls with my merits rather that increasing the supply of the sure thing. I think of it a performing a service for the community since usually half of the recipes I get have more bids than supply, and usually at least once a month I get something where the supply of either the recipe or the crafted enhancement has gone to zero. But I also know I'm taking a 30 to 50 million Inf hit (when I don't get a lucky roll) on each LotG's worth of merits. And I'm also helping keep the prices on these other recipes from climbing while usually NOT contributing to the supply of the top sellers.

At least, I don't also contribute to the demand for now. When building a high end enhancement list I know I can get 10-15 other good enhancements for the same price, and can even get a number of the less popular purples for less, so the LotGs are far down on my list of choices.

My guess is that it's mostly the consistent demand. Like Numina and Miracle globals, lots of us want Gambler globals on every character. What makes Gamblers different is the fact that we often want more than one - up to five of them on every character. That makes for a lot of demand.

i dont ever buy LOTGs on the market, i get pretty much all of mine from alignment merits and random rolls, heck i rarely buy anything thats more than 30 mil off of the market lol

I think it is price imprinting. People have established a number in their heads of what the value is (based on history, mostly I would guess), and are willing to make that "fair" number their first bid. I don't think very many people bid creep anymore.

I'm actually seeing huge spikes on all the LOTG pieces, and as I recently put together several sets for well under "daytime" market value prices, I would say that that holds true.

With that said, they have been more stable than usual, but as of a couple weeks ago (before the 1st Who Will Die? arc) they were pretty consistently hovering near 200 mil. The price on them dropped to nearly 70 million when that arc was introduced - I don't think it's too hard to picture why. Now that people got the front-load and over-saturation out of the way, we're at a point where supply is likely still a touch over what it was prior, and as the VIP head start is over and farming for the little man has been curbed to an extent, demand is lower. Add that to the fact that probably a lot of the LOTGs picked up <100 mil are going back into the market, this is probably why we're seeing the price as being stable. I would wager that it will eventually gravitate a little higher, but not too much. Eventually I'd estimate they'll be as valuable on the market as many other expensive/rare 2-merit recipes.

So, in short: Supply right now DOES NOT exceed demand. There are fewer LOTGs being produced than are being locked into toons. However, with that said, after the huge price crash, there are hundreds being reintroduced into the market, and these people have an idea of how much they want from them. This is why the price has been relatively steady and lower than prior.

So, it looks like people are saying my perception is mostly coincidence, probably with a side helping of confirmation bias. That's actually the result I was hoping for, since I couldn't think of any good reason for it to be otherwise.

As for the Inf earned per roll, I did specify "when I don't get a lucky roll." My playtime is spread across many alts, so I don't actually sit down and turn in merits that often. This makes the times I get something really good into much more . . . singular, experiences. I'm absolutely sure that if I started keeping records it would turn out that I am coming out ahead, as shown by the math of many here on the forums. Just as, if I went through and pooled the money from all the character I play regularly I might actually finish slotting enhancements into one of them

One of the only things I find merit rewards good for anymore.

Got my 2nd A-Merit from the SSA last night and headed to Trident for my LotG. Without realizing I was wasting my time seeing as I was only level 18...

So, I decided to pull up/auctionhouse, since I hadn't used that reward yet, and check the going rate. My funds are quickly depleting with all the new players, anyways.

The prices were consistent with what they'd been the past 6 months or so. (The time I've been watching) Then I clicked a level 30 recipe and noticed that somebody got very very lucky and or unlucky depending on the case.

In the history, among the 100 millions, was a single transaction for 12,000!
I know I would've smiled!

Got a question though. I don't have a 50 I can farm with, and don't really require all that much. The 400 million I got off a lucky purple drop has lasted me over a year. It's just now getting low with all the 20 mill I'm giving out left and right.

So, I debated saving up A-Merits to get a Glad and become a billionaire for the 1st time. Or, just cashing in every 2 for a LotG along the way. Which of the two would you pick?

I do both. I have at any one time, two characters who are stockpiling empyreans and/or alingment merits for a big purchase, and all other characters spend as they come in.

It's slow, but reliable.

Very interesting look at both sides of the coin.