Setting the record straight.


AquaJAWS

 

Posted

Lately I've been seeing threads all over the place with topics like "How do I get a VR incarnate salvage?" or "Which AT can get VR easily?" etc.... This is driving me nuts. People are constantly looking to get the best "participation" score in the incarnate trials or trying to find out how to cheat the system. Constant threads and questions asking the same thing. People complaining "I did eleventy-billion trials and didn't get a single very rare component! Hax!!!1!"
So, I'm going to clarify this once again, as has been done several times already.

Random number generator is random!

There's a key word in there: RANDOM!

Here, I'll spell it out for you!

R.A.N.D.O.M.

Dictionary definition of random:
–adjective
1. proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern: the random selection of numbers.

That is what random means. It means that even if I have a 50/50 chance of getting a very rare component or nothing, I could run an infinite number of trials and get nothing. Even though it's a 50% chance, it's chosen at random. Likewise, I could do 100 trials, and get a very rare every time. Once again, it is chosen at random.

Baryonyx made a post concerning Incarnate rewards. Here are a few key points presented in that thread.

Quote:
The participation system's primary function is to qualify players for the component reward tables.
Participation =/= guaranteed rare. It is only a qualifier for the reward tables. All it does is add the tables to the random number generator.

Quote:
Once a player qualifies for a component reward, the final block of choices presented to the player are rolled randomly. If you qualified for a component reward, you reached the level of participation for yourself and your league needed to have a chance at any component type.
If you have received the component reward table, you have already qualified for every reward table. So unless you did nothing at all but stood around picking your nose all day, you have qualified for a Very Rare roll. Once again, the reward table is chosen at, you guessed it, random!

Quote:
It has never been possible to guarantee that you will receive a Very Rare. Once the participation system has done a handoff to the random table, it no longer has any effect on your reward. While reports of multiple Very Rares are not unexpected, these occurrences are evidence of consistent league success combined with a large amount of good luck.
Notice the part in bold. All that is required for participation is doing something. Anything! You don't need massive AoE's, you don't need to do the most healing, you don't need XXX amount of defeats, just play regularly and you will earn your participation rewards. Did I mention that the reward tables are random?

Quote:
You are cooperating together against the challenges of the Trial. Rewards earned by you at the end of the trial have no bearing on what rewards other players can potentially receive. This is not a case of “there are only so many Very Rares to go around.” There’s no group loot table: everyone is rewarded independently and has the potential to qualify individually for a Very Rare. If your league does well, and you are a factor in that success, this will only increase your opportunity to earn a Very Rare component. You are not in competition with other players.
If you win, you get a shot at Very Rare. Very simple. Once again, this is not based on anything like damage output or number of defeats. Success is what ultimately determines your qualification for the reward tab-- oh, sorry, I meant the random reward tables.

Quote:
Earning a decent individual participation score does not require an immense amount of effort, but it does require consistent effort. This is specifically because we are aware of the limited nature of some power sets in regards what they can throw at the enemies encountered.
Once again, just by playing regularly and doing something other than door-sitting like a leech, you have already qualified for the all the reward tables.

Quote:
Four things that definitely do not affect your level of participation:
Tagging targets
Healing points or damage points
Interrupting powers mid-cast
Cycling powers on and off
Oh look at that! All the stuff that I just said does not affect your participation score. Whatever determines your participation score, the devs are quite obviously not going to tell us. Quit asking how to get the tables dangit! We don't know! First off, they won't tell us; and second, they've already said that just by doing something and winning you have met the requirements for the reward tables!! It's completely, totally, irrevocably, random!

Quote:
Any success that may have been achieved while performing actions which do not affect your level of participation listed above is, as noted, due to the success of your league and random chance.
Again, notice the bold text. It doesn't matter what you do, as long as you are doing anything at all to help your league.

In closing, please, please, please! STOP asking how to get a Very Rare reward. Stop complaining about how you've done XX amount of trials and didn't get anything. We don't care that you've only gotten 50,000 uncommons. The devs already told us how it works. The post is linked at the top. In case you didn't notice, here, I'll link it again for you. (<---- Click here for link!)

Closing comments: Random number generator is random! Stop complaining and play the game. It's not the end of the world if you do not get your Tier 4 ability.

P.S. The word random has been used twenty times in this post.


Arc ID: 348998 - Becoming a villain
Arc ID: 373341 - To Save a Hero

Got Inf?

 

Posted

Reminds me of a post I saw earlier in regards to random number generators and reward drops.

Quote:

... computer algorithms cannot hate people. Neitehr can computer hardware. So perhaps its God that hates you; I understand he can hold a grudge. Have you considered prayer?"



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Twitter: @Alpha_Ryvius

 

Posted

Way too long, stopped a third of the way through; the same thing was getting repeated too often.

Yeah, god forbid people want to actually attain various rewards when they're in there giving all they've got: how unreasonable of them. OMG stop it now!

[sigh] People want the good stuff. Not just stuff, but the good stuff. I am sorry the OP thinks they shouldn't WANT the good stuff, but they do. He's probably one of those people who gets three purples every ITF he runs, while everyone else gets a stack of Plasmatic Tasers. "OMG stop complaining you losers," as he trots off with three Hecatombs.

I'd just bet


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence View Post
Yeah, god forbid people want to actually attain various rewards when they're in there giving all they've got: how unreasonable of them. OMG stop it now!
It's very unreasonable considering that fact that it totally random and there's no sure-fire way to get a Very Rare.

Quote:
[sigh] People want the good stuff. Not just stuff, but the good stuff. I am sorry the OP thinks they shouldn't WANT the good stuff, but they do. He's probably one of those people who gets three purples every ITF he runs, while everyone else gets a stack of Plasmatic Tasers. "OMG stop complaining you losers," as he trots off with three Hecatombs.

I'd just bet
Of course people want the good stuff. Do I want a very rare? Of course I do! have I gotten one yet? No. But that's not the point of my post.

I'm sick of people complaining about it all day. People keep posting things like I mentioned, "I've done a bazillion trials and only got uncommons! This is unfair!"

It's one thing to want something. It's another thing entirely to whine about it consistently when you don't get it, then to ask how you get it, even though the methods have been described numerous times.


Arc ID: 348998 - Becoming a villain
Arc ID: 373341 - To Save a Hero

Got Inf?

 

Posted

Yes, because the devs could *never* make mistakes that could result in the appearance of not so random results. Nope, they certainly didn't mess up on the uncommon drop rates at i20 release.

Sorry but you don't know any better than anyone else that's doing the speculation so please, spare us the pointless lecturing.

*rollseyes*


 

Posted

So what archetype do I need to roll to get a VR drop?

pl meh?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hyperstrike View Post
English does not borrow from other languages. English follows other languages down dark alleys, hits them over the head, and rifles through their pockets for loose grammar.

 

Posted

>_>

The RNG... is hax.

<_<


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by baron_inferno View Post
Yes, because the devs could *never* make mistakes that could result in the appearance of not so random results. Nope, they certainly didn't mess up on the uncommon drop rates at i21 release.

Sorry but you don't know any better than anyone else that's doing the speculation so please, spare us the pointless lecturing.

*rollseyes*
That wasn't a mistake per se, there was no problem with the PRNG, they'd just pushed the weighting too high on Uncommons based on the beta server testing; turns out that teams were doing better than expected thus making Uncommons too common.


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Posted

Quote:
I'm sick of people complaining about it all day. People keep posting things like I mentioned, "I've done a bazillion trials and only got uncommons! This is unfair!"
Except that it IS unfair. Kind of like the person doing the least on the itf getting the lion's share of the shard drops; and I've seen that happen more than once.

When people see other people beating the RNG somehow, they want to know how to, too. This is hard-wired into human nature.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bad_Influence View Post
Except that it IS unfair. Kind of like the person doing the least on the itf getting the lion's share of the shard drops; and I've seen that happen more than once.

When people see other people beating the RNG somehow, they want to know how to, too. This is hard-wired into human nature.
It's only unfair until you're the lucky one, and then you deserve it, right?


 

Posted

I'm always working hard, and so its never me.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Spad_EU View Post
That wasn't a mistake per se, there was no problem with the PRNG, they'd just pushed the weighting too high on Uncommons based on the beta server testing; turns out that teams were doing better than expected thus making Uncommons too common.
That's what I'm saying though. A system that's weighted which also includes some pre-set criterias to determine whether you qualify for a random roll assuming that's *really* how the system works) isn't really that random at all.

The more characters I take through the trials, the less I'm convinced the system is completely random once you surpass the minimal participation (10 threads) threshold. My latest character, a AR/Kin Corr has done about 16 trial runs so far. She has 4 very rares, 7 rares, no commons/threads and the rest uncommons. Two nights ago while I was on this character doing some BAF runs, there were 2 other people (Def and Brute) who were also complaining about how they can't stop getting rares and very rares. Honestly, what is the statistical probability of that?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by baron_inferno View Post
That's what I'm saying though. A system that's weighted which also includes some pre-set criterias to determine whether you qualify for a random roll assuming that's *really* how the system works) isn't really that random at all.

The more characters I take through the trials, the less I'm convinced the system is completely random once you surpass the minimal participation (10 threads) threshold. My latest character, a AR/Kin Corr has done about 16 trial runs so far. She has 4 very rares, 7 rares, no commons/threads and the rest uncommons. Two nights ago while I was on this character doing some BAF runs, there were 2 other people (Def and Brute) who were also complaining about how they can't stop getting rares and very rares. Honestly, what is the statistical probability of that?
In isolation, very low, in the context of hundreds, probably thousands, possibly tens of thousands of random rolls a day, not that low. It's essentially impossible for us as players - and more specifically as forum-going players - to gather enough accurate data on this for the results to be in anyway meaningful, except in circumstances such as the Uncommon Problem where there is a significant statistical skew that makes it obvious even with relatively limited data points.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stone Daemon View Post
It's only unfair until you're the lucky one, and then you deserve it, right?
No. What's unfair is unfair. As I have mentioned in my previous post, I led 7 BAF runs 2 nights ago on my AR/Kin Corr and walked away with 5 rares/very rares and 2 uncommons. A good number of players stuck around for multiple runs, with some doing all 7 because it was a really good and social league. We didn't leak runners (except for 1 or 2 runs) and NS/Siege always went down on their first tandem spawn. Everyone participated but some people just could not get anything above uncommon. After a few runs I just stopped announcing my end rewards in league chat because I felt bad for them. Heck, if there was an option to trade incarnate components, I would have.

Anyone who was on the "Les Fembot" leagues 2 nights ago on Freedom can testify what my account of the night is 100% accurate.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by baron_inferno View Post
No. What's unfair is unfair.
"Unfair" is entirely subjective.
"Random" can be tested and mathematically verified.

The system is intended to be random. No system can EVER be fair to everyone, due to the simple fact that each person has different biases, perceptions and opinions. You may have a system where the majority feel it's fair to all, but you will never have universal agreement. This is human nature.


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Posted

I think random is the only "possible" fair way.
Everyone has the same chance.... Seems fair by that definition.....
Personal relationships can't change your chances. No sucking up to the RNG and having laziness overlooked.
So no favoritism.... Seems fair by that definition.
So then, by WHAT definition is random NOT fair?
This comes down to the magic "me" then.

Get it straight people, fair and what's best for you are NOT one and the same.

One last time. What could be MORE fair than random?


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Posted

If it did reward you based on participation amount, THAT would be unfair. Then only certain builds/powersets could get the Very Rares. "Your playing your defender? Sorry, but you didn't do as much damage as that Scrapper over there. Here, you get stuck with uncommons for an eternity! Have fun!"

Yeah, sounds totally fair... /sarcasm.

The way it is now, it's a much better method of rewarding. Everyone has the same chances for all the tables. If you simply participated at all with your character, you get a shot at that random roll. Everyone does if they simply were active. Seems pretty fair to me.

But right now we're going a little off-topic. The point is, this is how the system works. It has been explained to us numerous times. The point of this post is to make people realize that it is random, and that no build, character, AT, powerset or anything is going to give you a better chance at the reward rolls. People keep asking these silly questions and they don't realize that no matter what they are playing, they have the same chances as everyone else.


Arc ID: 348998 - Becoming a villain
Arc ID: 373341 - To Save a Hero

Got Inf?

 

Posted

Here's the thing, if the participation system only involved individual performance qualifier in order to avoid the 10 thread reward and everything else is up to the RNG, then fine. I have no qualms with that. However, then they decided to add another portion into the participation system, league performance, whose influence is now working against the randomness of the trial end reward. How else can you explain 2 people duoing a trial only to get thread, commons or whatever it was?

From Baryonyx:
If your league does well, and you are a factor in that success, this will only increase your opportunity to earn a Very Rare component.


Isn't it possible that this could be have some effect in influence the end reward random rolls?

Now if the criteria were known to the players then we'd have a truly even playing field and let the randomness nature of the system take over. However, the devs will never let us in on the secret because it will allow too many people to game the system.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by baron_inferno View Post
However, then they decided to add another portion into the participation system, league performance, whose influence is now working against the randomness of the trial end reward. How else can you explain 2 people duoing a trial only to get thread, commons or whatever it was?
If anything, that scenario only further proves the evidence of a truly random system. Only two people, they both had to be at "max participation" yet they still got the uncommon.

Quote:
From Baryonyx:
If your league does well, and you are a factor in that success, this will only increase your opportunity to earn a Very Rare component.


Isn't it possible that this could be have some effect in influence the end reward random rolls?
Notice that he says it will increase your opportunity, not your chances of getting a very rare. If your whole league does well, then everybody gets the participation rewards and everyone gets the opportunity to receive a very rare reward. Success doesn't generate a guaranteed result, it simply helps qualify players for the random roll.


Arc ID: 348998 - Becoming a villain
Arc ID: 373341 - To Save a Hero

Got Inf?

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash_Zone View Post
If anything, that scenario only further proves the evidence of a truly random system. Only two people, they both had to be at "max participation" yet they still got the uncommon.
That depends. While they both definitely hit the individual participation threshold to make sure they don't get 10 threads, there's the also the league performance threshold to consider. You could interpret it as their league performance level wasn't quite up to snuff when compared to say, a near full league. Maybe they died more. Maybe they didn't take down Marauder before he hit unstoppable. Maybe they didn't clear the sabotage phase with 5 minutes to spare. Maybe it wasn't synchronized. It can be interpreted both ways. Without knowing how league performance is measured, you can't be certain that it isn't somehow influencing the rolls in an unintended fashion. For that reason, you can't just say "oh but, random is random and that's that". That's my point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash_Zone View Post
Notice that he says it will increase your opportunity, not your chances of getting a very rare. If your whole league does well, then everybody gets the participation rewards and everyone gets the opportunity to receive a very rare reward. Success doesn't generate a guaranteed result, it simply helps qualify players for the random roll.
I saw people say in this thread that randomness can be proven scientifically. Fair enough but here's another scientific fact. When involved in a scientific theory, experiment, whatever, the more uncontrolled variables you introduce into an equation thereby increasing it's overall complexity, the more potential it has to cause errors in the final result. In layman's terms, first we started with a end reward system that's solely based on the RNG. Then we added an individual participation measurement system which involves X amount of criteria. After that, we added a league performance index which involves another set of criteria. Oh yeah, nothing could go wrong as we added more layers *wink wink*.

Look, I'm not trying to start a conspiracy theory here. I'm just pointing out the obvious because such errors *has* already happened once before. The precedence *has* been set. To put that much faith into a system with that many variables without any questions or even a sliver of doubt is, for lack of a better word, naive.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash_Zone View Post

Random number generator is random!

There's a key word in there: RANDOM!
Random = sucks.

I participate in these slideshow TFs... well, I *did*, but they're just too annoying with the massive lag and constant disconnects... and then get bupkus for my efforts. That's what is known in the fields of psychology AND business as a "disincentive."


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash_Zone View Post
It has been explained to us numerous times.
But maybe if we have one more thread explaining it that'll be the one that sticks, right?