Incarnate shard - Different droprates?...
By
AquaJAWS,
Posted on: 2011-03-16 06:11 in Player Questions
Quote:
My Tankers have routinely received 6-10 shards per ITF, weighted more toward the high end of that range (only gotten 6 once).|
Originally Posted by Brimmy
i've also been keeping tabs on their shard-drops from TF's lately, to make it consistent i counted only the same TF for all of them (ITF).
in 1 ITF 'normal' run (kill a lot but not excessive) i got: tanks : 3shards blaster: 6shards scrappers: 8-10shards it really seems like my tanks are quite incapable of getting shards and it's really started to aggrovate me (especially considering how many we have to get!) has anyone else experienced any differences between AT's? |
I'm going to chalk this one up to random distribution.
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The rule is that they must be loved. --Jayne Fynes-Clinton, Death of an Abandoned Dog
Hmm, that just makes it even more annoying tbh :P about to run yet another ITF on my invuln tank, see what he ends up getting..
@EU Brimmy - Union and Exalted servers
Yea, it's completely random.
Gurantee if you did that test 10 times more you'd see a pattern where the tank gets more and the scrapper gets less, maybe.
Good luck and happy hunting.
Ran 3 ITF,s yesterday with my troller,first 2 runs same team 12 shards per run third run done at 7 pm same toon different team 5 shards all TF,s were run for max shards,so all down to random drops I think normally average about 9 per run in the past.
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The plural of anecdote is not data.
A PRNG on the scale that this game works with needs a large, randomly distributed sample taken over a moderate period of time before you could even start to draw any conclusions about drop rates. You also need to take account of all drops, not just Incarnate shards as being eligible for shard drops doesn't change (AFAIK) your chances of getting any other drops in addition.
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Ive noticed that I hardly get any drops on my blasters. My scrapper and stalker are the only 2 with enough drops to attain tier 3. My tanks have tier 1 or tier 2.
Its neat that you're compiling data but I'm not seeing the same results in my experience.
My buddy, on the other hand, revealed last night he had 24 shards and one Hero1 DNA sample and hadn't locked into anything yet on his Fire/Fire/Pyre blaster. I think he was leaning towards musculature, which I tried to talk him out of, but thats what he wants.
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Small sample size = misleading results.
Compiling numbers like this is totally useless... because without also recording what the character has done, there is zero context. Right now, I have 2 or 3 characters than can get shards, and all of them only have 1... is that because the RNG isn't random and my characters just are set wrong/magicaly fairies? No, it's because they've barely been played at all since unlocking it!
You also need to remember: Random numbers are random, taking a couple small samples and saying 'hai, thes r not sam!!!' is kinda silly. You need a large number of samples to be able to even try to claim there's any non-randomness in random numbers.
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Originally Posted by ShadowNate
;_; ?!?! What the heck is wrong with you, my god, I have never been so confused in my life!
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Just remember RNG is not random. It simulates random.
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Yes, technically it's a psuedo random number generator- which is good enough to be used to secure trillions of dollars worth of transactions every day, so there's nothing intrinsically wrong with that.
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Originally Posted by Transhade
Just remember RNG is not random. It simulates random.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ShadowNate
;_; ?!?! What the heck is wrong with you, my god, I have never been so confused in my life!
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Quote:
Have they ever actually said it's a PRNG? For all we know they've got their servers hooked up to a source of genuine randomness to do the loot rolls |
Originally Posted by Transhade
Just remember RNG is not random. It simulates random.
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Quote:
... right.
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Originally Posted by The_Spad_EU
Have they ever actually said it's a PRNG? For all we know they've got their servers hooked up to a source of genuine randomness to do the loot rolls
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http://www.fimfiction.net/story/36641/My-Little-Exalt
Quote:
qft.
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Originally Posted by danzero
small sample size = misleading results.
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Another factor I've noticed, though I'll admit that it may be completely based on perception and have no basis in reality, is I tend to get more rare (purples, etc) drops right after a new issue or patch comes out that adjusts the reward tables and what drops. I've just told myself it must be because they do some kind of 'reset' of the PRNG that causes them to drop more frequently. But it could just be my perception as well.
But yes, 3 runs is far too small of a data sampling for the random number generator. In reality to get a truly valid sample you'd need thousands or more samples. As you gather more data, with random numbers, the results will even out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
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Exactly. Running 10 missions with each toon is not going to produce meaningful results.|
Originally Posted by DanZero
Small sample size = misleading results.
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When I unlocked the alpha on my first character, I ran 10 missions in a row without getting a single shard, then picked up 8 shards over the next 8 missions. I suppose if I were running the OP's test and had switched characters after those first 10 missions, I might have thought "gee, this one character gets no shards whatsover, but this other one averages one per mission. What's up with that?" But since it was all the same character, I could see it was just randomness being randomly streaky.
It does often feel inconsistent.
The ITF often drops a LOT of shards, yet one of my scrappers never gains more than 3 running it.
The plastic tips at the end of shoelaces are called aglets. Their true purpose is sinister.
--The Question, JLU
Just to annoy you all: I was running a Hami raid earlier on my Fire/Kin, only to realize half way through that I hadn't actually turned in the arc! So after the half way bloom, I hopped over to Oz and turned it in, getting my 1 shard. Go back to doing the Hami, and end with the 4 reward shards, along with 2 extras from just killing blue & green mitos, as well as hami. Wanting to get 8 to craft the level 1 alpha, I went over to my BM map, started killing, and opened my Salvage window so I'd see when/if I got an 8th... only to realize I already got it! Second group got me the shard 
So I run over to Vanguard to get the one from the vanguard merits... only to realize I had only ~75, not the required 150! 
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ShadowNate
;_; ?!?! What the heck is wrong with you, my god, I have never been so confused in my life!
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Hey all, am writing to see wether anyone else has noticed the same differences i have or if some of my toons are just plain unlucky...
I've done a series of tests on my various AT's after noticing that my invul tank was hardly getting any shards..
Old-school farming: for the sake of testing this, i picked up a farm mish on all my incarnates (same mission from same contact running at the same diff).
Each of the characters got 10 runs in the mission, and the results shows quite the difference..
invul Tank:0shards
elec Tank: 2shards
Blaster: 6shards
elec/shield scrap: 9shards
ma/shield scrap: 8shards
i've also been keeping tabs on their shard-drops from TF's lately, to make it consistent i counted only the same TF for all of them (ITF).
in 1 ITF 'normal' run (kill a lot but not excessive) i got:
tanks : 3shards
blaster: 6shards
scrappers: 8-10shards
it really seems like my tanks are quite incapable of getting shards and it's really started to aggrovate me (especially considering how many we have to get!)
has anyone else experienced any differences between AT's?
@EU Brimmy - Union and Exalted servers