Are Prices Dropping?
I thought that you can't do this in arena any more? Didn't they change it so you don't get rep in arena and to have a chance at a drop you have to earn rep when you do the kill?
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For the record, I got a Gladiator's Armor (Resistance) on my Rad/Therm the other day in RV and it was the first PvPIO I'd got in over a month. I tend to PvP less these days because of rl concerns, but I do so for 3-4 hours in RV or an hour or two in Arena.
The drop rate is crazy low.
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Furthermore, your ascertainment that AFK farming is the primary source of incoming product on the market is completely unsubstantiated.
It is supposedly so common, and so much information has been leaked as to kill that golden egg laying goose and all we can get is second and third hand accounts that some drops might be happening, on one server. That's kinda like believing space aliens are invading because a few bumpkins in Texas swear some other bumpkins saw them. |
Information on how to do these farms isn't exactly a well-kept secret. If you ask around, or even look on the boards, you'll find information. The only thing keeping it from being popular is that it requires lots of time and a second account, something which many people don't have access to. The information is there for whomever wants to access it - what they do with it is their own decision. If you think the situation Uber is describing "might" be happening, and is only happening "on one server," you're sadly disconnected with that's going on in the game these days. Of course, many of the PvP IO farmers are PvPers themselves, so they're mostly consolidated on a few servers, but I know of several people who farm on servers other than Freedom and Justice. I can say with almost 100% confidence that when I wander into Warburg on Justice and it shows the zone being empty, that there are at least a dozen accounts scattered throughout the zone farming for drops, and I've wandered across several farms in Warburg on Freedom, sometimes completely by accident.
Just because you don't want to admit you are wrong doesn't mean these things aren't happening. It's kind of like the people who said "there weren't any character deletions or bans because of MA powerleveling, because neither I nor my friends were affected." Get real.
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
I tried afk farming with my fire/kin in the cage match against a lev 50 toon of my wifes. I did it for a few days off and on. Not one drop. However, i can go farm in PI and in a few days time, get several purples. I think i'll just stick to PI. It seems to have a better drop rate for my luck. I don't pvp and don't need them. I just wanted to sell them.
More assumptions.
More ignoring the specificity of it needing to be AFK farming, rather than any other form of farming. Like was already discussed, that's a key distinction here.
More contradictory information. Is it a well guarded secret or public information? Some say we just need to know the right people on the right server, some say it is all over the boards (we've seen examples of methodology in this very thread, in fact). Of course, no one in this actual thread seems to have much success doing it. We're left to assumptions that it "must" be happening, based on metaphors and second and third party responses, with the few first hand accounts in this thread suggesting it is slow and inefficient.
Again, folks, we're talking about prices falling recently due to AFK farming. No one has explained this yet. It is a very specific inquiry, with a very relative time table.
We already know AFK farming has gone on forever (what isn't put in this thread is that it actually was once a very lucrative activity, before changes were made to the rep timer). We already know farming (as a generic) is a good way to gather rare drops. What we don't already know is that AFK farming is suddenly efficient enough, despite (to my knowledge) no recent changes to the rep timer structure to cause such a catalyst in the market.
Everyone in this game could come in and just call me names and make assumptions that "must be true". That behavior only makes a skeptic more resolved. You're going to have to do better if you want to convince anyone.
More ignoring the specificity of it needing to be AFK farming, rather than any other form of farming. Like was already discussed, that's a key distinction here. |
More contradictory information. Is it a well guarded secret or public information? Some say we just need to know the right people on the right server, some say it is all over the boards (we've seen examples of methodology in this very thread, in fact). Of course, no one in this actual thread seems to have much success doing it. We're left to assumptions that it "must" be happening, based on metaphors and second and third party responses, with the few first hand accounts in this thread suggesting it is slow and inefficient. |
Speaking of assumptions, you're now claiming that no one in this thread has had success AFK farming for PvP IOs - yet here I am as living proof of your inaccuracy. I've made billions upon billions of inf in farms you insist aren't having an impact on the market. Again, look at the prices of PvP IOs since the rep change was put into place, and you'll see this is where you're wrong - but I wouldn't expect you to see that.
Again, folks, we're talking about prices falling recently due to AFK farming. No one has explained this yet. It is a very specific inquiry, with a very relative time table. |
Actually, we weren't talking about prices on PvP IOs falling due to AFK farming until you brought it up. The OP happened to mention one IO they won a lowball bid on, which was more than likely someone either accidentally listing that IO too low, or simply listing it low because they didn't have enough inf to cover the fee, or whatever other reason. It wasn't because prices are coming down, however. You came in and said "AFK farming is having a negligible effect on the market" (which, I should add, is completely unsubstantiated and was thrown out there randomly, just like you're now accusing us of doing... funny how that works, isn't it?), to which someone replied "I'd bet money that it is having an effect." That effect may not be lowering prices, but it's certainly keeping those prices stable.
We already know AFK farming has gone on forever (what isn't put in this thread is that it actually was once a very lucrative activity, before changes were made to the rep timer). We already know farming (as a generic) is a good way to gather rare drops. What we don't already know is that AFK farming is suddenly efficient enough, despite (to my knowledge) no recent changes to the rep timer structure to cause such a catalyst in the market. |
Everyone in this game could come in and just call me names and make assumptions that "must be true". That behavior only makes a skeptic more resolved. You're going to have to do better if you want to convince anyone. |
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
More contradictory information. Is it a well guarded secret or public information? Some say we just need to know the right people on the right server, some say it is all over the boards (we've seen examples of methodology in this very thread, in fact). Of course, no one in this actual thread seems to have much success doing it.
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We're left to assumptions that it "must" be happening, based on metaphors and second and third party responses, with the few first hand accounts in this thread suggesting it is slow and inefficient. |
We already know AFK farming has gone on forever (what isn't put in this thread is that it actually was once a very lucrative activity, before changes were made to the rep timer). We already know farming (as a generic) is a good way to gather rare drops. What we don't already know is that AFK farming is suddenly efficient enough, despite (to my knowledge) no recent changes to the rep timer structure to cause such a catalyst in the market. |
In fact:
1) It's fast and efficient because you can get your kills about every 5-1/2 minutes and, since you're AFK it's effortless.
2) The rep timer is pretty much irrelevant. And, of course, the reduction from 10 minutes to 5 was a tremendous boon to any farming of PvP IO's and/or rep.
3) My *impression* is that the forced trip to the hospital at the 2 minute mark was instituted to address AFK farming. It didn't.
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Remember, this is a market related question that involves a very specific method of acquiring a specific item.
It is happening. I've seen it and done it. |
(If you are instead trying to verify that AFK farming takes place......great.....see list of things we already know are occurring.)
In fact: 1) It's fast and efficient because you can get your kills about every 5-1/2 minutes and, since you're AFK it's effortless. 2) The rep timer is pretty much irrelevant. And, of course, the reduction from 10 minutes to 5 was a tremendous boon to any farming of PvP IO's and/or rep. 3) My *impression* is that the forced trip to the hospital at the 2 minute mark was instituted to address AFK farming. It didn't. |
It therefore also cannot be fast because there is a very fixed limit on the maximum number per hour the process could generate.
It is effortless, but that does not necessarily make it efficient in regards to other procurement methods.
It is effortless, but that does not necessarily make it efficient in regards to other procurement methods.
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Sorry, bub, but you're wrong on this one.
EDIT: I'll clarify, using a few scencarios:
* Busy zone PvP: given that PvP in the only active zone in the game (Freedom RV) is more often than not one-sided, you usually have a large group of people killing the same few people over and over again, faster than that 5-minute rep timer. Yeah, there are more kills, but you're not getting a chance for a drop on each one. That's not even factoring in the fact that your targets are actively trying to avoid being killed, which complicates things even further.
* 1v1 arena match: standard matches are heal decay and travel suppression off, lasting ten minutes. That means you're going to have at most two chances for a drop, if either of you actually scores a kill in the match (two competent people on evenly-matched builds means that won't always happen).
* Team arena match: same rules as the 1v1s: kills are a bit more common depending on player skill and team makeups, but again, two chances max for a drop, as the entire team gets "rep" off each valid kill.
If you think AFK farming (guaranteed rep every five minutes) is less efficient than zone or arena PvP (might get rep every five minutes), you're sadly mistaken. AFK farming becomes even more profitable when you have multiple targets to work with, and are therefore getting rep more often than every five minutes.
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
The only assumption going on here is your assumption that AFK farming is not impacting market prices.
You kidding me? When most of the IOs I get sell for 9 digits, how is that not lucrative? It's just the opposite - it's even more lucrative than before, because there's much more potential inf to be gained per drop, and if you're one of the people with the resources to do such a thing, you're almost guaranteed lots of inf. "Needing to be AFK farming?" Are you suggesting that PvP IO farms need to be AFK, or are you suggesting that the AFK farms are the only way prices are/aren't getting lower? You'll need to make yourself much more clear if you want an answer that satisfies your unusually obtuse thought process. |
As can be seen in plain English right here:
The idea of this thread is that the supply of these things is driving down the price. I don't think anyone has established that enough of these limited available items has suddenly hit the market to make that exact impact, and we've certainly not shown that it is being done specifically though AFK farming methods. |
Your statement:
When most of the IOs I get sell for 9 digits, how is that not lucrative? It's just the opposite - it's even more lucrative than before, because there's much more potential inf to be gained per drop, and if you're one of the people with the resources to do such a thing, you're almost guaranteed lots of inf. |
The PvP recipe not that surprising there were several posts on the boards about mass farming fests for the things other people posted afk farming methods. If that isn't a recipe for killing the goose that lays golden eggs I don't know what is. |
That statement also does not jive with the following statement, which insinuates that certain people or playing on certain servers would be required connections to gain the methodology. From this thread alone, one could say that is in error, given this thread has repeated the methodology.
and/or play on a server where very few other people know how to do it |
Your question of the definition of efficiency is simple:
Is current AFK Farming methods efficient enough to cause the prices in the market to have been recently driven downward?
Is current AFK Farming methods efficient enough to cause the prices in the market to have been recently driven downward?
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One thing we know for sure, though: AFK farming is what's keeping the prices from being even higher.
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
No. Any form of farming not specifically AFK farming would be deemed another procurement method.
I've been extremely specific on that qualification throughout this thread. |
Anyways, I'm done here. Your insistence on ignoring facts and evidence which are staring you in the face means you're either being intentionally obtuse, or a troll.
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."
(I'm not sure why we're even having this discussion, when the whole thing started over someone mentioning they got a lowball bid on a single enhancement)
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That is the author's example. The thread title is clear as day:
"Are prices dropping."
The content of the first post is very clear as well:
"Could they have an effect on the Market?"
The conversation has been dominated by one class of items, to this point, based on one possible explanation over one possible class of items, but the question remains.
We haven't done a good job establishing facts. We haven't established that prices are indeed dropping, but instead have only listed one low ball bid on one item and made the assumption that it is sound evidence for that conclusion. That item also happens to have several second hand sources that say it is bought for several times the author's quoted amount in direct exchange to bypass the inf cap. (As of this writing, there are none available on the market and the last 5 bids on both recipe and crafted IO are all inf capped.) We haven't established the exact role AFK farming has on items such as PVPIOs, but we're all fairly certain AFK farming does take place for them. We haven't really looked at any other factors.
I'm in this thread for only one and only one reason, and it is because we're treating assumptions as finality. If we can't even come to the agreement that prices are indeed dropping for only one class of item, how can we possibly draw such rock solid conclusions?
Of course not all of that increased supply is coming from AFK farms, but given the reasons I stated above why they're more efficient than the alternative method of getting these drops, it's once again a logical conclusion that AFK farms are having the greatest impact on the increase in supply (however small that may be). |
The statement is very specific. It is a question of if the current AFK farming practices are indeed strong enough to be impacting the market in a fashion to drive down prices.
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You stated, I quote:
AFK farming for those is pretty much a non issue in terms of generating enough supply to ever impact the market. |
You did not say "AFK farming for those is pretty much a non issue in terms of generating enough supply to trend their price lower," and thus specifically adhere to the OPs thesis. I did not adhere to the overarching thesis of this thread in declaring you mistaken. I claimed that you were mistaken in claiming that the AFK-farmed supply could not "ever impact the market" (for PvPOs).
What seems most likely to me is that the supply of AFK-farmed PvPOs is damping an otherwise rampant price increase created by multiple forces.
- Reduced supply caused by the change to match the Rep timer
- Increased demand as more players became aware of the PvP sets' benefits and "standard" builds using them emerged
- Increased per-capita wealth created by, among other things, the rough doubling of the rate at which 50s earn inf in I16.
Unless the people I know in game are all lying to me (not some abstract "grapevine" you allude to, but first hand reports by people I play and/or chat with almost daily), I personally know enough farmers to have, at one point, accounted for around 10% of total daily transaction rates for PvPOs. That was before the vogue techniques became more widely known. It's not hard math to come up with that estimate - one needs only look at what people were reporting as drops or sales, then actually peer at the market for those goods for a couple of days, and compare how many drops were reported (or how many sales were reported) to the rate of sales for PvPOs shown in the market history.
We know there are more people doing it nowdays. It's common sense to conclude that the percentage of total transaction volume provided by these additional AFK farmers has only increased as a result, as there is no indication that more people have been PvPing, and AFK farming is, by all appearances the most widely known farming method. It's inconceivable to most of us here that this much of total supply cannot "ever impact the market".
Now you can freely claim that my online acquaintances are lying, that I'm lying about what they said, or that I'm too incompetent to watch the market and successfully gauge the ratios I mention. I'll just point out that most market behavior information posted on this forum is anecdotal except for the average price analysis people used to do. Given that, why you'd decide this one claim is bogus is beyond me, other than a dogged refusal to accept you might have been mistaken in the specific assertion you made, quoted above.
Edit: It occurs to me you might claim that those of us debating this with you should have inferred your quote to mean "AFK farming for those is pretty much a non issue in terms of generating enough supply to trend their price lower" because that is the topic in the OP. If so, I recommend you reconsider your communication techniques. It is never wise when reading any given post to assume that it is meant as anything other than a direct response to the post it replies to; threadjacks and sidebars are the norm on these boards and every one I have ever frequented.
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Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
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Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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Just to touch on afk farming vs real pvping for drop rates. Last week I went on ahot streak and got 6 drops during the week. Keep in mind most of play time if used in rv on freedom. The busiest servers busiest zone. One of my friends who afk farms pvpos had a really bad week drop wise. He still got more than double the drops I did, while afk. Now keep in mind this used none of his in game play time so when he was at his keyboard to play he could do other things like level new toons, run content like tfs and accolade toons. So he got twice the loot I did with pretty much no effort. And still had his play time to do with what he wished. Mind you pvping is what I wish to do with my play time, but its pretty easy to see that the afk farmers would have a significant impact on prices. To think otherwise would be shallow and shortsighted.
P.S.: this bro frog dude is amusing.
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I built a new gaming rig last night and got back into the game after a week away. The Gladiator Armor +3% def had 370 bidders, 0 supply, last sold on 1-24-10 hero side.
Prices of these are not dropping. The large numbers of bidders suggests that a) these IOs are being sold off market for a huge mark up, especially in light of the fact that server transfers are still free, and b) the supply for these is (and probably always have been) exceedingly small.
When I bid for mine, I was able to acquire one for the influence cap after about 6 day wait. There was also only 170+ ebidders, and it has now more than doubled. I have two 2B influence bids for this recipe and neither have filled since I posted them about two weeks ago. Actually, I would've been surprised if they had.
I pretty much agree with Conflict that the bulk of supply for this particular PvP IO is probably from afk farming.
I built a new gaming rig last night and got back into the game after a week away. The Gladiator Armor +3% def had 370 bidders, 0 supply, last sold on 1-24-10 hero side.
Prices of these are not dropping. The large numbers of bidders suggests that a) these IOs are being sold off market for a huge mark up, especially in light of the fact that server transfers are still free, and b) the supply for these is (and probably always have been) exceedingly small. When I bid for mine, I was able to acquire on for the influence cap after about 6 day wait. There was also only 170+ ebidders, and it has now more than doubled. I have two 2B influence bids for this recipe and neither have filled since I posted them about two weeks ago. Actually, I would've been surprised if they had. I pretty much agree with Conflict that the bulk of supply for this particular PvP IO is probably from afk farming. |
The supply is small, however untill I see hard numbers I'm not going to jump on the band wagon and assume most of the supply is from AFK farmers. There are about 30 to 40 people in zone at any given time for a few hours a day on freedom. I'm sure there are a few afk farmers but I'm skeptical if they make the majority.
I just thought this topic was amusing.
As for the question expressed in this threads title.
"Are Prices Dropping?"
Yes, all the time.
"Are prices rising?"
Yes, all the time.
There are many niches in the market, you have to be more specific.
Hmmmm, hadn't really thought about it before... but if there are lots of people on Freedom to PvP with, and no people on Pinnacle to PvP with (just to pick on Pinnacle for no reason) then logically Freedom will end up with more PvP recipe drops than the low population servers.
I'm pretty sure that is true, and always has been, but it has never mattered before. As long as the drops went onto the market, they became equally available to all servers. But now, if prices really are going to be consistently above the price cap on the market, then it should follow that a significant number of pvp recipes will sell off-market.
And once the free server transfers vanish, that will mean that the recipes stay on the server where they dropped.
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But now, if prices really are going to be consistently above the price cap on the market, then it should follow that a significant number of pvp recipes will sell off-market.
And once the free server transfers vanish, that will mean that the recipes stay on the server where they dropped. |
Recipes of all sorts have been sold without the market since the very beginning, but that number always seems rather small (empirically) in relation to the size of the market.
Hmmmm, hadn't really thought about it before... but if there are lots of people on Freedom to PvP with, and no people on Pinnacle to PvP with (just to pick on Pinnacle for no reason) then logically Freedom will end up with more PvP recipe drops than the low population servers.
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You see, the most prolific AFK farming happens on the servers with low PvP populations, because there are essentially no PvPers to disturb them. Even when people go in zone on the quieter servers, they seem to be more prone to leave the farms alone than one might expect; I can only theorize that these players may perceive increased supply as a good thing.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
How to work around being ported to hospital in zones after two minutes of being dead?
Please tell me a +recharge build w/ 6 slotted rez isn't the answer.
Actually to much recharge can mess it up.
Edit: if its happening at all that is. I have no proof sadly.
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Seems to be more in the 1/200 - 1/300 range. Its going to be interesting to see what the devs nerf on this this, this time. AFK farming, or the drop rate.
Then again my idea would be upgrade the day jobs so they do something actually desirable and can only be earned when you are completely logged out.