Issue 16 Market predictions

Post your predictions for the market for Issue 16 here.

I predict people will roll lots of new chars to play with Powerset Proliferation and Customization. People may also spend a significant amount of time retrofitting established characters for Power Customization, complete with costume tweaking. That will result in fewer people leveling up mid and high level chars, at least in the short term. It'll take a few months for the game to return to a more normal distribution.

Low level demand will spike. Lots of lowbies will still be using AE and earning tickets, so low level supply will only spike weakly from the Traditionalists who avoid the AE. There's money to be made selling to lowbies for a month or two. Common IO crafters will be busy.

Farmers will go gonzo with the new difficulty system, and supply of level 50 stuff will spike. More people will try fighting larger spawns, effectively increasing the number of farmers in the game and again increasing supply. Total Farm income will increase, and that will go to buying shinies since it's all disposable income. The price of most high level stuff will go down due to oversupply and a reduction in the number of new people hitting 50, but within a couple months prices will rebound higher than ever. Items trading in a shortage (purples) will not go down at all as there will be no oversupply, so they will continue to rise as disposable income rises. Hold on to your purples, the prices are just going up.

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Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304

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Post your predictions for the market for Issue 16 here.

I predict people will roll lots of new chars to play with Powerset Proliferation and Customization. People may also spend a significant amount of time retrofitting established characters for Power Customization, complete with costume tweaking. That will result in fewer people leveling up mid and high level chars, at least in the short term. It'll take a few months for the game to return to a more normal distribution.

Low level demand will spike. Lots of lowbies will still be using AE and earning tickets, so low level supply will only spike weakly from the Traditionalists who avoid the AE. There's money to be made selling to lowbies for a month or two. Common IO crafters will be busy.

Farmers will go gonzo with the new difficulty system, and supply of level 50 stuff will spike. More people will try fighting larger spawns, effectively increasing the number of farmers in the game and again increasing supply. Total Farm income will increase, and that will go to buying shinies since it's all disposable income. The price of most high level stuff will go down due to oversupply and a reduction in the number of new people hitting 50, but within a couple months prices will rebound higher than ever. Items trading in a shortage (purples) will not go down at all as there will be no oversupply, so they will continue to rise as disposable income rises. Hold on to your purples, the prices are just going up.

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Interesting, I disagree with a lot of this.

Agreed, people will be rolling new alts, but it takes all of 4 hours to get them up to the mid-20s in AE. Low level stuff won't change from current patterns at all IMO.

This will result in a TON of tickets and most low-mid level recipes (say 30 and under) will drop in price. There might be an increase in demand, but the increase in supply will outstrip it.

As I stated in another thread, I think demand for purples and high-end IO sets will spike before supply catches up from all the farming. Prices will climb before steadying and finally dropping as the market saturates from all the farming. I think the saturation will take a while tho, because of all the new alts being created from scratch.

In summary, low-mid level stuff will crash in price, making frankenslotters happy. High-end stuff will spike for a while before farming saturates the market.

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Items trading in a shortage (purples) will not go down at all as there will be no oversupply, so they will continue to rise as disposable income rises. Hold on to your purples, the prices are just going up.

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There doesn't have to be oversupply for prices to decline, just greater supply than currently. I think your analysis is sound except for your conclusion about purples.

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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project

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Items trading in a shortage (purples) will not go down at all as there will be no oversupply, so they will continue to rise as disposable income rises. Hold on to your purples, the prices are just going up.

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There doesn't have to be oversupply for prices to decline, just greater supply than currently. I think your analysis is sound except for your conclusion about purples.

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Agreed. Purple availability will increase as level 50 soloable farmers will come out of the AE, leave their padders/teammates behind and farm standard missions and repeatables.

There will be a mass influx of produced influence but also many more purples being produced per farmer/unit time than now.

Yellow (uncommon) salvage will take a price hit especially in the tier 3 range. I'm prediciting a return to glut levels here. Best to unload any supply of uncommons prior to I16.

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-Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein.
-I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. - Galileo Galilei
-When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. - Thomas Jefferson

I have to disagree with the OP on purples as well. I think purple prices are going to fall quite a bit. Maybe not quite to pre-I14 levels, but they'll be down quite a bit from where they're at now.

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Whoa, wait! I new difficulty system??? Where can I read more about that?

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Whoa, wait! I new difficulty system??? Where can I read more about that?

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Here

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Oh God, Hope somebody remembers where the Portal Corps light switch is.

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I'm not predicting anything until I see more info on the difficulty system. It's possible there will be some penalty or drawback associated with it.

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@Demobot

Also on Steam

lets hope that they wont do that. after all the preaching about risk vs rewards.....

if you can solo an 8 man mob then you should reap the rewards of an 8 man mob.... IMHO

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Ignoring anyone is a mistake. You might miss something viral to your cause.

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I'm not predicting anything until I see more info on the difficulty system. It's possible there will be some penalty or drawback associated with it.

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I dont think it will matter if there is a drawback.

There's SO many farmers out there and SO many wanna-be farmers, its just pretty safe to assume most will leave AE and return to PI.

And why would there be a penalty involved in the first place? You're 1 person fighting 8 man spawns. So because I'm able to accomplish that, I'm going to be penalized? Makes no sense. I've invested billions into various builds so I dont have to rely on others.

But I can totally see the cries for such a drawback from those here who can't.

Infact, the crying has already started. To even mention the idea is crying because if you could do it solo, you wouldnt be throwing out idea to strangle such an AWESOME feature.

Then again....when those whiners are able to buy the purples they seek for an affordable price, they'll have people like myself to thank.

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Honestly, I think this was conceived for a few reasons...

1) It gets the farmers out of the AE building and the farm spam out of broadcast.

2) Good farmers no longer need to fill a full team to farm. Thus lowbies looking to get PLed will get left behind. Personally, I won't be inviting anyone to join me. So that's 7 people that are not getting leveled each time I start a farm.

3) Market control - I think the Devs look at the market in terms of purples, see the lack of supply and the rising prices and have put in place a feature that will help stabilize the inflation.

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not to come off as sounding rude,

those that can't, can cry all they want.

then, they can learn to build something and learn to play.

Im going to love the prestige from this.

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Ignoring anyone is a mistake. You might miss something viral to your cause.

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Honestly, I think this was conceived for a few reasons...

1) It gets the farmers out of the AE building and the farm spam out of broadcast.

2) Good farmers no longer need to fill a full team to farm. Thus lowbies looking to get PLed will get left behind. Personally, I won't be inviting anyone to join me. So that's 7 people that are not getting leveled each time I start a farm.

3) Market control - I think the Devs look at the market in terms of purples, see the lack of supply and the rising prices and have put in place a feature that will help stabilize the inflation.

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Every one of those points are valid. Alot of peeps had the misconception of "nerf this" and "nerf that" to get the farmers out of AE. that was the wrong attack on the right problem. the absolutely best possible solution to "get the farmers out" is to distract them away with a new shiney, not to "nerf it all to an ineffective oblivion"

heh.../endrant.

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Ignoring anyone is a mistake. You might miss something viral to your cause.

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Honestly, I think this was conceived for a few reasons...

1) It gets the farmers out of the AE building and the farm spam out of broadcast.

2) Good farmers no longer need to fill a full team to farm. Thus lowbies looking to get PLed will get left behind. Personally, I won't be inviting anyone to join me. So that's 7 people that are not getting leveled each time I start a farm.

3) Market control - I think the Devs look at the market in terms of purples, see the lack of supply and the rising prices and have put in place a feature that will help stabilize the inflation.

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Every one of those points are valid. Alot of peeps had the misconception of "nerf this" and "nerf that" to get the farmers out of AE. that was the wrong attack on the right problem. the absolutely best possible solution to "get the farmers out" is to distract them away with a new shiney, not to "nerf it all to an ineffective oblivion"

heh.../endrant.

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You're right.

And if there's a penalty involved in doing this solo...guess where the farmers will end up again?

Back in the AE buildings...

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You're right.

And if there's a penalty involved in doing this solo...guess where the farmers will end up again?

Back in the AE buildings...

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Awww, you didn't give me a chance to guess.

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Why would farmers leave the AE buildings and go back to PI? The new difficulty system will presumably apply to AE missions as well.

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And for a while things were cold,
They were scared down in their holes
The forest that once was green
Was colored black by those killing machines

Woohoo Farmers won!

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Why would farmers leave the AE buildings and go back to PI? The new difficulty system will presumably apply to AE missions as well.

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AE doesnt drop purples (except for Dev choice)....and that's really what a lot of farmers are after. Or so that will be the reason I leave the AE buildings.

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I think alot of folks that do alot of AE farms right now out of boredom will start doing flashback missions set for 8 instead. Why deal with a full team when you can solo the same thing, or just do it with a friend or two? This will bring up the supply of just about everything on the market. Prices won't go down though cause at this point it is so easy to rack up millions and millions of inf...and only getting easier.

My overall prediction is that prices stay over inflated as they are now, but supply goes up and there is less waiting. Basicly just a more active market.

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Thanks for the link....with all that's happening in CoX, I think I'm going to disregard my trial of that other MMO that is coming out in September. I was thinking about giving it a try, but now it isn't looking appealing at all! I know where my time is going to be spent!

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I actually think the opposite. I predict that a lot of people will leave the game to pursue something new (that other mmo) and the market will inflate drastically to compensate.

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Alot of peeps had the misconception of "nerf this" and "nerf that" to get the farmers out of AE. that was the wrong attack on the right problem. the absolutely best possible solution to "get the farmers out" is to distract them away with a new shiney, not to "nerf it all to an ineffective oblivion"

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Absolutely.

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AE doesnt drop purples (except for Dev choice)....and that's really what a lot of farmers are after. Or so that will be the reason I leave the AE buildings.

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Drop farming content is far, far more profitable than using AE.

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I actually think the opposite. I predict that a lot of people will leave the game to pursue something new (that other mmo) and the market will inflate drastically to compensate.

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I don't know. Personally, I had an order for that other MMO, but no more. I'm loving the idea of power customization and the difficulty slider. With it being so much easier to solo large maps with larger groups of critters, we could actually see an increase of drop-farming and some migration away from AE as it will no longer be the new shiny on the block.

Also, though I have no idea with the ration of incomingutgoing subscribers is with each new issue realease, I'd wager that we'll see more people come in than we see leave which means more supply if poeple do move away from the AE.

I am still a supporter of moving the AE building out of AP, but that may just always be a fantasy. I love the idea of Maelstrom or Reichsman coming in and leveling the place. What happens to a hero if they are embedded in a data stream and the system is destroyed? It would be an awesome way to significantly curtail the hero population, that's all I know!

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I'm not much of a market hound, but I'll be running my aoe toons like this:
Spawn for 6-8, difficulty 4, conning -2.

I envision needing to sell off every loot table I have after each (short) mission.

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