Issue 16 Market predictions
By
AgentMountaineer,
Posted on: 2009-07-16 14:06 in The Market and Inventions
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I'm not much of a market hound, but I'll be running my aoe toons like this:
Spawn for 6-8, difficulty 4, conning -2.
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I must've missed it; where does the announcement say we'll be able to adjust the spawn levels downward?
Freedom: Blazing Larb, Fiery Fulcrum, Sardan Reborn, Arctic-Frenzy, Wasabi Sam, Mr Smashtastic.
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I actually think the opposite. I predict that a lot of people will leave the game to pursue something new (that other mmo) and the market will inflate drastically to compensate.
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My prediction: that other MMO isn't going to have anywhere near the impact on this game's population as some people seem to think (or hope) it will.
And yah, I'm not gonna make any calls until we get more details about the difficulty slider. Specifically about whether or not it's going to apply to MA.
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Items trading in a shortage (purples) will not go down at all as there will be no oversupply, so they will continue to rise as disposable income rises. Hold on to your purples, the prices are just going up.
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Perhaps. They haven't announced new content yet but if there is any high level content, that combined with the mission difficulty slider would mean the rate of purples being produced will rise and we'll see purple prices fall somewhat.
Freedom: Blazing Larb, Fiery Fulcrum, Sardan Reborn, Arctic-Frenzy, Wasabi Sam, Mr Smashtastic.
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I actually think the opposite. I predict that a lot of people will leave the game to pursue something new (that other mmo) and the market will inflate drastically to compensate.
[/ QUOTE ]
My prediction: that other MMO isn't going to have anywhere near the impact on this game's population as some people seem to think (or hope) it will.
And yah, I'm not gonna make any calls until we get more details about the difficulty slider. Specifically about whether or not it's going to apply to MA.
[/ QUOTE ]I noticed everyone is calling it that other MMO or the MMO-that-shall-not-be-named. I just find this funny. 
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I actually think the opposite. I predict that a lot of people will leave the game to pursue something new (that other mmo) and the market will inflate drastically to compensate.
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My prediction: that other MMO isn't going to have anywhere near the impact on this game's population as some people seem to think (or hope) it will.
And yah, I'm not gonna make any calls until we get more details about the difficulty slider. Specifically about whether or not it's going to apply to MA.
[/ QUOTE ]I noticed everyone is calling it that other MMO or the MMO-that-shall-not-be-named. I just find this funny.
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Yeah and they're calling Champions Online by Cryptic Studios, original developer of City of Heroes this for the same reason the wizards wouldn't say Voldemort.
The City of Heroes Community is a special one and I will always look fondly on my times arguing, discussing and playing with you all. Thanks and thanks to the developers for a special experience.
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Honestly, I think this was conceived for a few reasons...
1) It gets the farmers out of the AE building and the farm spam out of broadcast.
2) Good farmers no longer need to fill a full team to farm. Thus lowbies looking to get PLed will get left behind. Personally, I won't be inviting anyone to join me. So that's 7 people that are not getting leveled each time I start a farm.
3) Market control - I think the Devs look at the market in terms of purples, see the lack of supply and the rising prices and have put in place a feature that will help stabilize the inflation.
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Every one of those points are valid. Alot of peeps had the misconception of "nerf this" and "nerf that" to get the farmers out of AE. that was the wrong attack on the right problem. the absolutely best possible solution to "get the farmers out" is to distract them away with a new shiney, not to "nerf it all to an ineffective oblivion"
heh.../endrant.
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If it works. I do think that the enhanced difficulty will do much to limit the negative effects of farming, but I'm not sure that the devs have exactly given up on reining in AE as a farming tool.
And remember, they just nerfed another AE mob out of existence this week, so I'm not sure that the devs agree with this.
The City of Heroes Community is a special one and I will always look fondly on my times arguing, discussing and playing with you all. Thanks and thanks to the developers for a special experience.
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I actually think the opposite. I predict that a lot of people will leave the game to pursue something new (that other mmo) and the market will inflate drastically to compensate.
[/ QUOTE ]
My prediction: that other MMO isn't going to have anywhere near the impact on this game's population as some people seem to think (or hope) it will.
And yah, I'm not gonna make any calls until we get more details about the difficulty slider. Specifically about whether or not it's going to apply to MA.
[/ QUOTE ]I noticed everyone is calling it that other MMO or the MMO-that-shall-not-be-named. I just find this funny.
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I call it "The Scottish MMO"
Professional Lurker.
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I'm not predicting anything until I see more info on the difficulty system. It's possible there will be some penalty or drawback associated with it.
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Honestly, I think this was conceived for a few reasons...
1) It gets the farmers out of the AE building and the farm spam out of broadcast.
2) Good farmers no longer need to fill a full team to farm. Thus lowbies looking to get PLed will get left behind. Personally, I won't be inviting anyone to join me. So that's 7 people that are not getting leveled each time I start a farm.
3) Market control - I think the Devs look at the market in terms of purples, see the lack of supply and the rising prices and have put in place a feature that will help stabilize the inflation.
[/ QUOTE ]
Every one of those points are valid. Alot of peeps had the misconception of "nerf this" and "nerf that" to get the farmers out of AE. that was the wrong attack on the right problem. the absolutely best possible solution to "get the farmers out" is to distract them away with a new shiney, not to "nerf it all to an ineffective oblivion"
heh.../endrant.
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This is also valid.
I for one hope there is no penalty to soloing an 6-8 man spawn by yourself. Hell if you can survive that you DESERVE the rewards.
Blazara Aura LVL 50 Fire/Psi Dom (with 125% recharge)
Flameboxer Aura LVL 50 SS/Fire Brute
Ice 'Em Aura LVL 50 Ice Tank
Darq Widow Fortune LVL 50 Fortunata (200% rech/Night Widow 192.5% rech)--thanks issue 19!
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Items trading in a shortage (purples) will not go down at all as there will be no oversupply, so they will continue to rise as disposable income rises. Hold on to your purples, the prices are just going up.
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Perhaps. They haven't announced new content yet but if there is any high level content, that combined with the mission difficulty slider would mean the rate of purples being produced will rise and we'll see purple prices fall somewhat.
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Keep in mind that the difficulty slider might apply to older content as well.
You thought that MoSTF was tough before . . . lol
Blazara Aura LVL 50 Fire/Psi Dom (with 125% recharge)
Flameboxer Aura LVL 50 SS/Fire Brute
Ice 'Em Aura LVL 50 Ice Tank
Darq Widow Fortune LVL 50 Fortunata (200% rech/Night Widow 192.5% rech)--thanks issue 19!
Happy B-Day Aura! 
The City of Heroes Community is a special one and I will always look fondly on my times arguing, discussing and playing with you all. Thanks and thanks to the developers for a special experience.
I imagine there will be a rise in supply of purples.
Level 50 farm-ish build (MM, Scrap, Defender, whatever...) sets his difficulty to 8 man spawns at -2 or -3 to his level. 47s can drop purples, and a 50 farmer can walk through them like Duke Nukem strolling through Sesame Street.
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don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
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I imagine there will be a rise in supply of purples.
Level 50 farm-ish build (MM, Scrap, Defender, whatever...) sets his difficulty to 8 man spawns at -2 or -3 to his level. 47s can drop purples, and a 50 farmer can walk through them like Duke Nukem strolling through Sesame Street.
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I've seen nothing to suggest you can set to minus anything.
Also;Happy birthday Aura
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I'm not much of a market hound, but I'll be running my aoe toons like this:
Spawn for 6-8, difficulty 4, conning -2.
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I must've missed it; where does the announcement say we'll be able to adjust the spawn levels downward?
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i doubt we'll be able to, but we can just do what we do now- get a mish at the right time, then level past it a bit.
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My City Was Gone
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I imagine there will be a rise in supply of purples.
Level 50 farm-ish build (MM, Scrap, Defender, whatever...) sets his difficulty to 8 man spawns at -2 or -3 to his level. 47s can drop purples, and a 50 farmer can walk through them like Duke Nukem strolling through Sesame Street.
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I've seen nothing to suggest you can set to minus anything.
Also;Happy birthday Aura
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They said you could set the relative level for the spawns. I was assuming you can set it negative.
Either way, even 8 man spawns at +0 will go fast.
Where to now?
Check out all my guides and fiction pieces on my blog.
The MFing Warshade | The Last Rule of Tanking | The Got Dam Mastermind
Everything Dark Armor | The Softcap
don'T attempt to read tHis mEssaGe, And believe Me, it is not a codE.
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And if there's a penalty involved in doing this solo...guess where the farmers will end up again?
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IF there's a penalty, I expect it to be in the form of some limit, decay or other impact to an individual's rate of reward. Doing so in this way would ensure that it doesn't matter what size team you're on, or where you farm or PL. You won't exceed target return rate limits.
Note that I do not want such a feature and would not ask for it. But if I was tasked with implementing it, that's what I'd do.
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Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
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Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
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And if there's a penalty involved in doing this solo...guess where the farmers will end up again?
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IF there's a penalty, I expect it to be in the form of some limit, decay or other impact to an individual's rate of reward. Doing so in this way would ensure that it doesn't matter what size team you're on, or where you farm or PL. You won't exceed target return rate limits.
Note that I do not want such a feature and would not ask for it. But if I was tasked with implementing it, that's what I'd do.
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IF there is a penalty, I expect it to be completely over the top and ridiculous, like a 5 minute timer between drops that resets if you kill anything else within those 5 minutes.
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And if there's a penalty involved in doing this solo...guess where the farmers will end up again?
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IF there's a penalty, I expect it to be in the form of some limit, decay or other impact to an individual's rate of reward. Doing so in this way would ensure that it doesn't matter what size team you're on, or where you farm or PL. You won't exceed target return rate limits.
Note that I do not want such a feature and would not ask for it. But if I was tasked with implementing it, that's what I'd do.
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IF there is a penalty, I expect it to be completely over the top and ridiculous, like a 5 minute timer between drops that resets if you kill anything else within those 5 minutes.
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Bwahahahahaha ... hungover much?
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Bwahahahahaha ... hungover much?
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Actually I feel pretty good this morning. Not bad for a $7 bottle of wine. 
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lets hope that they wont do that. after all the preaching about risk vs rewards.....
if you can solo an 8 man mob then you should reap the rewards of an 8 man mob.... IMHO
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I'm with you. I don't think there should or will be a penalty.
I also think the slider will apply to MA.
I think the Devs want to give players more options as opposed to more limits.
Side note: It would be grand...just GRAND, if they altered merit rewards to scale along with either the old (or new) difficulty settings...within Ouro and on TFs.
Repeat Offenders
I predict ...
Things will change. Those who adapt will continue to be successful. Those who don't will preach doom and gloom and/or whine until they post an angry "That does it, you lost a dedicated customer this time." post; which will get several "Can I have your stuff?" replies.
Some people will try to anticipate what the changes to the market will be and will speculate wildly on what salvage / recipes / IOs will be worth stockpiling. This will cause a minor ripple in the market. During this time, here on the Market forum, we'll see a post about every 3 days about how the prices for XYZ have gone crazy.
When Issue 16 goes live, about a third of those speculators will have been right and will be back here gloating about the killing they made. The others will be sulking and trying to figure out how to make some of their losses back.
Four to six weeks after I16 launches, things will have re-established a new equilibrium. Marketers will keep making money, and the 6 or 7 hardcore PVP players will still be complaining that they can't get their PvP IO's at the price they would like to pay.
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And if there's a penalty involved in doing this solo...guess where the farmers will end up again?
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IF there's a penalty, I expect it to be in the form of some limit, decay or other impact to an individual's rate of reward. Doing so in this way would ensure that it doesn't matter what size team you're on, or where you farm or PL. You won't exceed target return rate limits.
Note that I do not want such a feature and would not ask for it. But if I was tasked with implementing it, that's what I'd do.
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Naw, they wouldn't do any thing like that......
that would be totally wrong..... like putting a Ticket cap on AE missions.....
Oh, wait........
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I'm not much of a market hound, but I'll be running my aoe toons like this:
Spawn for 6-8, difficulty 4, conning -2.
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I must've missed it; where does the announcement say we'll be able to adjust the spawn levels downward?
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"and even have control over the level they are detected to be when it comes to the dynamic spawn system."
I have no idea if it will let us go "down", but it definitely lets us go up. Not everyone plays a toon with massive survivability and aoe damage.
As much fun as a scrapper will find it to increase team size and crank up the relative level of his enemies I'm sure there are just as many aoe blasters that would like to mow down hordes of enemies too.
Even if we can't drop it below us, setting it it to +0 will be pretty good for lots of builds with great aoe, but less than willpower survivability.
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As much fun as a scrapper will find it to increase team size and crank up the relative level of his enemies I'm sure there are just as many aoe blasters that would like to mow down hordes of enemies too.
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my fire/ice has been doing it for years. =D
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
The price of purples will be severly influenced on whether the team size slider will apply to MA or not.
Some farmers will leave MA regardless, but if it also works in MA, being able to pad YOUR map with YOUR hand picked enemies in any amount YOU want is hard to pass up, especially since you can also pick your rewards with tickets.
If the team size slider is excluded from MA, then I believe many more farmers will exit MA and return to Dev-created missions resulting in an increased supply of purples (and many other rare recipe drops).
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