An uninformed estimation of release dates
By
Acyl,
Posted on: 2009-06-22 06:16 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
I think you meant to say "uninformed" in your title.
Winner of Players' Choice Best Villainous Arc 2010: Fear and Loathing on Striga; ID #350522
I could live with that, but I don't think it's going to happen. I put i16 in December and Going Rogue no earlier than April of 2010.
It'd be nice if they could pull off a miracle and get i16 out exactly 3.5 weeks after that other superhero MMO releases, to give people yet another reason to come back after they find out how lame it is. I suspect that's what they're trying to do. But that hasn't been their recent history.
I'd love for this to be what is happening but it does seem kind of crammed in, first half of this year went by fast, I think we'd be lucky to see 16 by November-December and Going Rogue by May of next year. A whole new expansion has a lot more to fill than an issue.
You don't think they'll try and get Rouge out in time to compete with that other hero MMO that is now slated for Sept 2009 release?
We don' need no stinkin' signatures!
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You don't think they'll try and get Rouge out in time to compete with that other hero MMO that is now slated for Sept 2009 release?
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Yeah I was gonna say, these estimated dates are a LONG wait, especially since i15 is very light in content.
I disagree.
I'm sure you're right on the money as to when Ish 15 will launch or -very- close.
I also think you're terribly close on when issue 16 will launch.
However. Going Rogue is not Issue 16. It's an expansion that the Dev team have been working on since Issue or 6. Look up 'Going rogue' and you'll find a CoV Launch Era Emmert Interview where he talks about Going Rogue being a soon to come out issue with Side-Switching.
Going Rogue is -not- an Issue unto itself. It's an Expansion that will -probably- be released to coincide with an issue. Why? So that people who -don't- buy GR at least have something awesome and cool to do.
Issue 16 AND the Going Rogue Expansion prediction: October/November
-Rachel-
I think it's more likely that Issue 16 will be what Paragon Studios promotes in response to the challenge from a certain other superhero MMO.
We're probably looking at a late June or early July release date for Issue 15, and historically speaking there's usually been a 2-4 month gap between issues. So that's just about right for Issue 16 to arrive in September or October. It's unlikely they'll be able to rush another Issue release within 2009 after that, though it remains possible.
However, we are assuming that Going Rogue will arrive together with an Issue launch.
The last expansion, City of Villains, launched with Issue 6. That's why everyone expects that Going Rogue's introduction will be part of a numbered Issue.
Maybe not.
We don't know.
@Acyl
VIRTUE
Blue: Realpolitik, Leading Lady, Glass Lass, Superball, Alec Kazam
Red: Battery Acid, Obsolete, Bugfix
I agree with the idea that Going Rogue will be released sometime around Issue 16 but will not be Issue 16.
Also, I'm currently typing this while wearing a uniform, so this is a uniformed estimation of release dates 
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Also, I'm currently typing this while wearing a uniform, so this is a uniformed estimation of release dates
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I'm currently wearing an old sports jersey, so I too am making a uniformed estimation.
Clearly this is a new groundbreaking trend in data analysis and forecasting.
Now we need some posters dressed like the Village People. That'd be double the statistical awesome.
@Acyl
VIRTUE
Blue: Realpolitik, Leading Lady, Glass Lass, Superball, Alec Kazam
Red: Battery Acid, Obsolete, Bugfix
When the rumor was that i16 was Going Rogue, I held out some hope that it would be out in time to compete with that other MMO. Now that it's i17 or later? Zero chance. They're averaging four or more months per expansion, and it's only 3 months to September. They are not going to, they cannot, release issues 15, 16, and 17 in the next three months. Period.
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I agree with the idea that Going Rogue will be released sometime around Issue 16 but will not be Issue 16.
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Doesn't make much since in the roleplay aspect, City of Villains came in with issue i6 Along Came A Spider, which roleplayed in the reason why all of a sudden arachnos are there. Going Rogue would do the same, come in with an issue, since it is definitely not i16, my bet is i17.
I think people misunderstand Positron's announcement.
GR is NOT an Issue of ANY KIND. It's separate from the issues. So it could come out around the same time as i16 (theoretically)
@Jeffery Duke
Meanwhile...On The Internet...
City of Villains wasn't an issue, but how it was tied into the game was an issue, i6. Going Rogue would be tied into the game through an issue, though all it is itself is an expansion.
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City of Villains wasn't an issue, but how it was tied into the game was an issue, i6. Going Rogue would be tied into the game through an issue, though all it is itself is an expansion.
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What folks are saying, though, is that Going Rogue doesn't have to launch together with an Issue.
I agree it's most likely that Going Rogue will be released together with an Issue update, like City of Villains and Issue 6. That's what they did last time, and it makes sense from a logistical perspective. Less beta testing and patching to do.
But we don't really know for sure what their plans for Going Rogue are. I think it'll probably arrive alongside an Issue, but it's possible that it could be released independent of the issue schedule.
Which is what people here are suggesting.
@Acyl
VIRTUE
Blue: Realpolitik, Leading Lady, Glass Lass, Superball, Alec Kazam
Red: Battery Acid, Obsolete, Bugfix
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You don't think they'll try and get Rouge out in time to compete with that other hero MMO that is now slated for Sept 2009 release?
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Given that most launch mmos are light on content, I think they'll release Going Rogue a few months after The Other Game, once people have seen what there is to be seen over there and start to drift back off.
Didn't they state that Going Rogue was testable by anyone?
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Didn't they state that Going Rogue was testable by anyone?
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No, that was Issue 15.
I generally like the release dates MOO suggested for I15 and I16. I think I15 is close. I tend to think I16 will drop in November-ish, since there will be quite a bit of work involved (if PC is indeed part of the Issue), but still solidly this autumn.
In relation to the discussion above about Issue releases and Going Rogue, I get the feeling there will be an Issue to coincide with the release of the expansion. That's what happened with CoV, and quite a bit of I6 was getting CoH ready for the new side (including graphics updates, the PvP zones, and a new Pocket D).
However, I think early 2010 is an extremely optimistic estimate for Going Rogue. I came to the game not long before the release of CoV, but from what I gather, CoV was announced about a year before it launched. This is rather what I think will happen with Going Rogue, so I'm expecting the expansion in Spring of 2010, probably coinciding with the release of I17 for the existing game.
Champion: Feride Edain, Level 50 Vigilante Blaster; Quicksilver Cure, Level 33 Controller; Silent Gemini, Level 44 Tanker; Aisa Moirai, Level 19 Villain Dominator
Virtue: Aurora's Blaze, Level 50 Peacebringer; Atrytone, Level 50 Tanker
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I generally like the release dates MOO suggested for I15 and I16. I think I15 is close. I tend to think I16 will drop in November-ish, since there will be quite a bit of work involved (if PC is indeed part of the Issue), but still solidly this autumn.
In relation to the discussion above about Issue releases and Going Rogue, I get the feeling there will be an Issue to coincide with the release of the expansion. That's what happened with CoV, and quite a bit of I6 was getting CoH ready for the new side (including graphics updates, the PvP zones, and a new Pocket D).
However, I think early 2010 is an extremely optimistic estimate for Going Rogue. I came to the game not long before the release of CoV, but from what I gather, CoV was announced about a year before it launched. This is rather what I think will happen with Going Rogue, so I'm expecting the expansion in Spring of 2010, probably coinciding with the release of I17 for the existing game.
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unless a closed beta announcement for rogue hits in the next 1-2 months i'll have to agree with the early-ish 2010 suggestion.
iirc c.o.v. was in a closed beta state for approx 6-8 months prior to launch. granted, it did 'seem' to have more game mechanics that required testing over going rogue (which at this time has a few 'unofficial' power sets and a potentially new a.t. in the 'spy') that at first blush appears more about an expansion of the game universe/playspace over fundamental mechanics.
looking forward to finding the praetorian rick's cafe.
/2inf and a uniformed guess. 
Kittens give Morbo gas.
Sounds quite reasonable.
I'm in civvies, so this is an ununiformed response.
I think that we are very close to i15 going live; which given the state of the Reischmann TF/SF, is really not all that great of a piece of news. They may be thinking that the longer they wait, the angrier people are going to be about 95[?] badges getting stripped, and that is a reasonable fear: that people are really gonna be angry.
I will be immensely shocked if we see i16 before November, since this is alleged to be a huge issue. My money is on Rogue early in 2010, at the earliest.
Issue 15 is in the latter stages of Beta. Issue 16 has had an amazing 'We couldn't do that at Cryptic' sneak-peek displayed by Positron. 'Going Rogue' has been announced, but has been confirmed NOT to be I16.
I was chatting with some global friends last night and came up with the following schedule:
Issue 15 is released to live possibly this week, but probably next week. Devs spend a few more weeks hammering out bugs.
Comic-con International and a few other cons are in July. During one of these, probably one that Paragon Studios staffers are attending, we get the lowdown on Issue 16. Until this point, none of us mention the 'P---- C-------------' words because we're too nervous to mention them. We've been hurt before.
Closed Beta for Issue 16 begins mid-late August. As the work involved for P---- C-------------'s been portrayed as a metric butt-load of work that's only now possible due to Paragon's increased development staff, it probably doesn't go live until late October or later.
On Halloween? A perfect time for it, considering that P---- C------------- might allow many heroes and villains to completely change their look.
However, dev work and internal testing for Going Rogue has been going on since spring. GR is announced as Issue 17 and closed beta begins very early November. Shippers start to announce mid-December as the launch date in order to cash in on the Christmas Rush.
Both Open Beta and the predownload for i17/Going Rogue begins on about December 1st. The RTM version of Going Rogue begins pressing with the predownload version of the game. It hits store shelves about December 15th.
Issue 18 doesn't get talked about until February 2010.
-- Edit: I DID mean 'uninformed'. Although ladies love a man in uniform, so I'm told. --
-- Edit, Edit: I was NOT wearing a uniform while I typed this. I was wearing my MOOBoxers. Sorry, Ladies. --