Have we mastered the Market?
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2011-07-17 22:37 in The Market and Inventions
You mention nethergoat and deluded in the same post, did you mean the same nethergoat who started this thread
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/searc...rchid=11732721
With the the thesis that patience is the ultimate virtue in the market because if you wait long enough someone will make a horrible error in your favor ?
I don't think the Market Forum regulars have many new insights to discuss, no. I've thought that for a long time. I know I haven't seen much posted here that was ... enlightening? for a while.
Note that something can be enlightening even if people don't believe/accept it. I haven't seen much posted here that's a new idea about the market for a really long time.
Now, I think there's still some interesting discussion whenever there is a perturbation of the market as we (think we) know it. Trying to apply the models we hold for the market to future changes and then watching what actually happens is always of at least a little interest to me.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
I wouldn't say "mastered" so much as "Adapted to" the market... we don't really have a lot of control. We drain off a little every time the tide goes up or down, but we do not control the tide.
I agree that we don't have a lot of new insights.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Quote:
That's an interesting question. | Have we mastered the Market? |
As Fulmens points out, if you use the definition of "master=control of", then
clearly we are not, since we do not, and for most part proved that we can not,
"control" the market, except for relatively minor and temporary effects in a niche.
The Devs are the masters in that category as they can add, remove or change
any aspect of the market at their whim.
If you use the definition of "master=expert of", then the answer is a slam-dunk,
Yes.
There is no doubt that the regulars on this forum are Experts at inf acquisition
using the Market, and I'd venture to guess that some of our regulars understand
the usage and nuances of the Market better than those that created it.
In terms of inf acquisition, regulars of this forum have demonstrated and documented
the most effective techniques and strategies to gain inf in the game. No other
method (by itself) is faster or more effective than the Market.
They've demonstrated the ability to acquire hundreds of billions of inf in a matter
of weeks (the VG Prestige "hostile" takeover projects).
They've measured and documented dozens of strategies for acquisition from simple
to hardcore. These include vendoring, flipping, crafting, various forms of ticket
and merit conversion. They cover every in-game commodity that can be used
for inf acquistion from enhancements to inspies to salvage to tickets and
anything else that has an inf value (real or implied).
I think the relative inactivity is a result of two key factors.
1> In the present implementation there aren't any ways to make inf that we
don't know about. We've found them, explored them, and often, documented
them as well. There's nothing new that isn't a wrinkle on something else. Even
the latest uses of Threads and Empryeans are only a subclass of ticket/merit
conversion.
2> There's less whining. My guess is that it is SO easy to make inf these days,
that there simply is no practical way to be poor anymore... As a secondary
thought, maybe some of our guides have become common enough knowledge
throughout the player base (ie. critical mass) that more players are simply accepting
the Market as a part of the core game (like stores/contacts were a core part).
Whatever the actual reason, we see a lot fewer "Evil Manipulation" claims, and far
more "Hey, I finally made a billion myself" claims. Personally, I like that.
I have no doubt that we are Masters/Experts of the Market as it is today.
Tomorrow? Who knows? What the Devs do with/to it?
But, I'd bet that whatever it is, the regulars of this forum would be among the first
to analyze, utilize and document whatever new techniques are needed to acquire
inf based on any changes that occur.
To me, I think that qualifies as Mastering the Market...
Regards,
4
I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.
I think Freedom will have a significant impact on the market. In addition to the obvious more players = more supply and more demand it is known that free/premium players will have "Limited" market/invention access (how limited we don't know) which potentially opens up some new avenues for trade.
Quote:
Linking fail and getting the joke fail in the same post.|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
You mention nethergoat and deluded in the same post, did you mean the same nethergoat who started this thread
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/searc...rchid=11732721 With the the thesis that patience is the ultimate virtue in the market because if you wait long enough someone will make a horrible error in your favor ? |
Impressive.
@Roderick
Quote:
See kids, this is what happens when you hold grudges.|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
You mention nethergoat and deluded in the same post, did you mean the same nethergoat who started this thread
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/searc...rchid=11732721 With the the thesis that patience is the ultimate virtue in the market because if you wait long enough someone will make a horrible error in your favor ? |
You get stupid.
Statesmonkey Sez: Lighten up! It's a game, for Lincoln's sake!
Also: Six years of casual play begins to look an awful lot like one year of hardcore play.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Roderick
Linking fail and getting the joke fail in the same post.
Impressive. |
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Casual_Player
See kids, this is what happens when you hold grudges.
You get stupid. |
I for one enjoy Nethergoat's presence. He's an awesome guy.
Re: 4-- Yeah understand it completely was what I was going for.
I gotta go with what Fulmens said.
The market is kind of like the ocean. It's big, and it has all sorts of currents and eddies that can surprise anyone, even the hardiest sailor.
Many of us here have come to know its whims and moods, and can easily ride the waves to profit--but that doesn't mean we let our guard down.
Also, I think we need to recognize the efforts in other exciting projects, such as (but certainly not limited to) the various "How long does it take a brand new character to amass [x] inf. while only doing [y] activities," whoever ran that sweet investment portfolio, AND THE CRAZY 88S.
List some more great experiments and memories.
There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.
The Luck Charmers
Whats to post?.....should I describe how I'm just now unloading a bunch of -res procs (forget set name...only drops level 10-20 though) at a mark-up of 100000% which I bought when GR was new?
The truth is with so many meta-currencies and such that there is no joy in the market anymore. I still do it mainly to just do it. I don't need the inf honestly. I will say it seems like most craft-and-sell niches are seeing massive supply right now which is driving down prices. For example: I have one niche which used to have 10 crafted IOs and 30 recipes available and price per IO of about 50M (recipe wavered between 15 and 30M). Now there are 198 IOs and 75 recipes outstanding. The recipes have dropped to 2M and the IOs are selling at 14-22M. Is there still profit? Yes. But, along with the lack of drop in purple prices its a sign that even the casual player has slotted most of the toons they want with decent IO sets now and mostly only has the VR/PvP stuff to shoot for.
Is there something to profit from there? I don't know but I'm sure there is.
Achilles Heel
When the Ocho actually posted about the brilliancy of Smurphy's respec recipe speculation.
Also, a personal favorite of mine, the legendary "Lazy and Stupid: Why You're Poor" post. Prior to edits.
There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.
I wouldn't say "mastered", but I don't think that anything really new is to be learned as things stand. The mechanics of how the market work are clearly defined, so the only thing that is new is fluctuations in supply and demand. On the supply side, it continues to become easier and easier to produce (merits, A-merits, threads, better farming techniques and builds, etc.) supply and the demand side is consistent but not overwhelming. Prices fluctuate, but there don't seem to be any real macro changes that would cause major shifts. Ive been kind of bored for a while and haven't seriously marketed for a few issues, and it is highly possible that I am missing some things that are fascinating and ground-breaking.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Quote:
The wise sailor also knows when to stay tied up at the pier. If the market is doing something you don't understand, or prices seem high, wait.
|
Originally Posted by DumpleBerry
I gotta go with what Fulmens said.
The market is kind of like the ocean. It's big, and it has all sorts of currents and eddies that can surprise anyone, even the hardiest sailor. Many of us here have come to know its whims and moods, and can easily ride the waves to profit--but that doesn't mean we let our guard down. |
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Quote:
Actually there are a couple of ways to play the stock market. You can monitor fundamentals of a company, cash in and out, quarterly reports, business plans, etc. But you can also ignore that and just buy and sell based on how the stock is doing, or how you expect it to react. Monitoring fundamentals is more a low-risk low-return way, while playing the market is high-risk but high-return. I generally do the later, because I think I'm smart enough to reduce the risks to an acceptable level. In other words, I guess right more often than not. My current guess is that purple prices will continue to rise, but that's a subject for another thread.
|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
The wise sailor also knows when to stay tied up at the pier. If the market is doing something you don't understand, or prices seem high, wait.
|
Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304
Quote:
Yep.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
The wise sailor also knows when to stay tied up at the pier. If the market is doing something you don't understand, or prices seem high, wait.
|
You got to know when to out bid 'em, know when to creep 'em,
Know when to sit a bid overnight, know when to wait.
You never count your posted bids when you're sittin' at the Consignment House,
There'll be time enough for countin' after Wentworth's takes its share.
There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.
Quote:
I laughed like the devil at the OP and the rest of the thread, I even get to feel a little smug at being able to predict the behavior of the forum posters, not that its hard.|
Originally Posted by Roderick
Linking fail and getting the joke fail in the same post.
Impressive. |
You might as well be congratulating yourselves for being admirals in the Swiss Navy.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Casual_Player
See kids, this is what happens when you hold grudges.
You get stupid. |
I even get to watch marketeers desperately try to keep their relevance by doing stupid things to grief other parts of the game.
What after the crazy 88s ? Going to try and bribe pvp teams to rig the ladders ?
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Chaos Creator
I find that if you pay no attention to him he goes away.
I for one enjoy Nethergoat's presence. He's an awesome guy. Re: 4-- Yeah understand it completely was what I was going for. |
I chuckled at his goat rule thread for weeks, The Indians must have had the same reaction to Columbus discovering their country. His last thread was truly a thing of beauty. I mean how many people would be willing to claim ownership of the greater fool theory and then use themselves as the example fool ?
Quote:
I suspect the "newest shinies" not being tradable has a lot to do with this.
|
Originally Posted by Chaos Creator
This brings me to my observation; The Market & Inventions forum has had very little new information in quite some time. Sure we argue with people and correct their deluded ideas now and then. We do a few experiments and share the results, but nothing new is being discovered.
|
The Bacon Compels You.
Quote:
I know I've been whining a lot less due to the new currencies and such.|
Originally Posted by UberGuy
I don't think the Market Forum regulars have many new insights to discuss, no. I've thought that for a long time. I know I haven't seen much posted here that was ... enlightening? for a while.
. |
I'm "middle class" with my current holdings (several times inf cap) and am making more money daily. No niches at all. I have a MM parked at 33 that sells five pool Cs every two days and my 50s cash in Reward Merits in the 35-39 range or random roll Hero Merits in that range. Everything else gets crafted and sold
I could probably make tons more but I'm too lazy to care.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Another_Fan
What after the crazy 88s ? Going to try and bribe pvp teams to rig the ladders ?
|
Peril told us he'd give us all glad jav procs (value around 1 billion each, more or less) if we got it done. We did win by the skin of our teeth, was a great match from our opponents too.
Not sure if you could get enough players to throw games though...and whether you could find ANY to do it to begin with, given that rep carries some weight in those circles. It's also worth noting PvPers don't need inf, they need IOs...so you'd have to start at multiple glad jav procs, panacea heal and so on per player then see where the agreement is reached.
Questions about the game, either side? /t @Neuronia or @Neuronium, with your queries!
168760: A Death in the Gish. 3 missions, 1-14. Easy to solo.
Infinity Villains
Champion, Pinnacle, Virtue Heroes
Quote:
That might be 'middle class' in this forum, or on TheMarket channel.|
Originally Posted by Neuronia
I'm "middle class" with my current holdings (several times inf cap) and am making more money daily.
|
I think the average player would consider that as wealthy.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Reminds me of someone asking a drug dealer where he thought "middle class" started and the guy said "$150,000 a year?"
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Yeah, I've noticed that spending time here and in the channel does tend to skew your perception of how much Inf is a lot.
It's all relative . . . when it isn't outright BS.
Quote:
Article here.|
Data from the Department of Energy and other agencies show that the average poor family, as defined by Census officials: ● Lives in a home that is in good repair, not crowded, and equipped with air conditioning, clothes washer and dryer, and cable or satellite TV service. ● Prepares meals in a kitchen with a refrigerator, coffee maker and microwave as well as oven and stove. ● Enjoys two color TVs, a DVD player, VCR and if children are there an Xbox, PlayStation, or other video game system. ● Had enough money in the past year to meet essential needs, including adequate food and medical care. |
Yeah, according to the Census Bureau, the average "poor" family has two color TV's. Maybe 'middle class' really is $150,000 per year.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
When the auction house was first added very few people knew what things would be 'worth' so we all played it by ear. Nethergoat taught us how to get cheap salvage, Zombie burning in Dark Astoria. We conducted experiments to find out what worked and what didn't. We debated economics with Smurphy. We evangelized via the Scoop articles written by peter_peter (sorry I think I typed your name wrong)
)
We created a meeting place (/chanjoin theMarket) for like minded folks to discuss nefarious schemes. We've created artificial shortages. We've created real shortages. We've crashed prices and jacked them up again.
For years this forum was hopping with the exchange of information on how to get the most inf for your playtime.
This brings me to my observation; The Market & Inventions forum has had very little new information in quite some time. Sure we argue with people and correct their deluded ideas now and then. We do a few experiments and share the results, but nothing new is being discovered.
So my fellow ebil marketeers, do you think we've mastered the market system?
(Side note, I'm hoping this thread will create a nice big discussion so once again the forum is hopping