Making CoX F2P: How would you do it?
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2011-05-19 21:53 in CoH and CoV General Discussions
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If they are playing for free, and not spending a lot of money on microtransactions, those new/returning players aren't bring in any more money for NCSoft. |
Originally Posted by American_Knight
The senarios you spin don't mention anything about new/returning players joining the player base as mentioned in other posts.
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The only way the devs or anyone else can convince NCSoft that a free to play model is a good idea is if they can guarantee the game will remain profitable if they do it. And there is no way to make that kind of guarantee.
There's also another aspect I hadn't mentioned: With the game earning less money (which is likely), they will probably cut the staff down again. That means there will be less content being released, and it will take longer.
I'd like to see you convince the devs that free to play is a good idea when what you are essentially telling them is: "How would 75% of you like to be unemployed so we can play for free? Isn't that a GREAT idea?"
Also, free to play MIGHT give the game a quick infusion of cash when people buy the stuff they want, but what happens to that cash flow when most everyone has everything they want? They aren't going to buy stuff they don't want or need just to keep the game alive. After the first 6 months of F2P, the profit margin is going to narrow dramatically, NCSoft will start laying devs off, players will get annoyed that content is taking longer to be released, and basically it will be the beginning of the end for the game.
Free to play might work for some other games, but I don't see any way it could work for THIS game.
Going free to play after 7 years of being subscription based just screams "This game is going under soon!". You might get some new players, but they'll all be under the impression that the game will be gone soon, so they won't want to waste their money buying stuff. And because they are under that impression, they will probably be right.
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| It's just that Power Customization is the one people tend to incorrectly use as an example instead of Inherent Stamina which one dev did say something along the lines of he'd rather get rid of stamina altogether than make it inherent. |
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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison See, it's gems like these that make me check Claws' post history every once in a while to make sure I haven't missed anything good lately. |
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Again, we have two different perspectives. Your view is to highlight the possible negative consequences while I am choosing to view the potential possibilities of the system - which is a good thing, it leads to a balanced view.|
Originally Posted by ClawsandEffect
This is a good point actually. A very good point.
(abbreviated) Is my outlook on this a little pessimistic? Yes, but it's also very realistic. If CoH goes free to play, I'll be anticipating the game being shut down within 18 months. |
I have at least two friends who don't play CoH because they can't fit the $15 into their monthly budgets, and I have at least six other friends who would play but don't have enough interest to buy the game and pay the monthly sub. I think for every player we have in game, I'm sure they have at least close to the same amount of people in their life in a similar scenario (totally speculating here.)
So if you could get those 8 or so people to start playing the game, albeit for free, and they MTS around $10 a month, let's say, on whatever is being offered (costumes, consumables, QoL features), that's an additioanl $960 a year, just generated from me being able to get my eight friends to play.
Assume the entire playerbase (assuming we have 125k subscrubers) is in a similar situation, that's a potential $120,000,000 in revenue from word of mouth/referrals and getting their friends to play the game for free.
That's not including what other people, without friends in the game, decide to up and join.
I'm horrible at math and statistics and all that stuff. I could be totally wrong in my above totals. But that is the possibility I see in the F2P system. Everything I presented above is total speculation. My 8 friends could join this game for free and not spend a dime, it could happen, but you have to look at the potential that is there.
Again, I don't think CoH is going down that road, but I am interested in the possibilities of the F2P business model.
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Then they'd more likely be players who play for free and only make a couple purchases for "essentials" and that's it. They'd be a one-time cash infusion of a couple bucks.|
Originally Posted by VoodooGirl
I have at least two friends who don't play CoH because they can't fit the $15 into their monthly budgets
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Meanwhile they're consuming bandwidth, disk space and adding to general population numbers vs server quotas.
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| and I have at least six other friends who would play but don't have enough interest to buy the game and pay the monthly sub. I think for every player we have in game, I'm sure they have at least close to the same amount of people in their life in a similar scenario (totally speculating here.) |
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| So if you could get those 8 or so people to start playing the game, albeit for free, and they MTS around $10 a month, let's say, on whatever is being offered (costumes, consumables, QoL features), that's an additioanl $960 a year, just generated from me being able to get my eight friends to play. |
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| Assume the entire playerbase (assuming we have 125k subscrubers) is in a similar situation, that's a potential $120,000,000 in revenue from word of mouth/referrals and getting their friends to play the game for free. |
Remember, POTENTIALLY this game could be subbed by everyone on the planet. Leading to NINETY BILLION in revenue.
Now start looking at "confidence levels". In other words, how likely the sales guys think that said event is. Basically multiply that confidence level against the potential money involved and you get an idea of what actual revenues are likely to be.
So what's 120 million times .0001?
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| That's not including what other people, without friends in the game, decide to up and join if they actually buy anything. |
Clicking on the linked image above will take you off the City of Heroes site. However, the guides will be linked back here.
My quote was fine the first time, because that is what I meant. Don't ever re-quote me and change it by saying "you're fixing it."
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Like that, perhaps?
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Originally Posted by VoodooGirl
My quote was fine the first time, because that is what I meant. Don't ever re-quote me and change it by saying "you're correcting my logic errors."
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Obviously, I don't care about NCSoft's forum rules, now.
When trial accounts were first offered they had almost no restrictions. They quickly became a source of serious problems in the game, and their capabilities had to be drastically curtailed to prevent scams. Now trial accounts can do almost nothing.
Of necessity, F2P accounts would have to have the same level of restrictions, to avoid all the problems that unlimited trial accounts gave us.
To prevent abuse and inflicting a massive influx of nitwits and exploit hounds on the paying playerbase there would have to be some kind of wall between the F2P players and "real" players.
But characters on such accounts are essentially unplayable for more than a few hours. You can't get a real feeling for the game on a trial sub.
People tend to devalue things that cost nothing. They value expensive things, even when those things have no intrinsic value. Designer clothes and shoes are often shoddier than sturdy apparel that costs 10 times less. Yet everyone wants the fancy brand-name stuff.
People also despise things that misrepresent themselves. If a game claims to be F2P, yet you get nickel- and dimed to death for everything you need, you wind up feeling cheated. You won't ever get invested in the game and you'll quickly leave.
Also, giving something to new people for free (and letting in the rabble) would alienate many of the most devoted players. The last thing the devs can afford to do is tick off their paying playerbase.
When you come right down to it, if people can't afford to play a computer game, then they shouldn't play the game.
I would heartily endorse a better trial experience, but we've seen how hard that is to do.
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I agree completely but I want to add one more thing. PS/Ncsoft adding F2P is another software dimension of the game that has to be maintained that will come at our expense(less content). |
Originally Posted by Rodion
When trial accounts were first offered they had almost no restrictions. They quickly became a source of serious problems in the game, and their capabilities had to be drastically curtailed to prevent scams. Now trial accounts can do almost nothing.
Of necessity, F2P accounts would have to have the same level of restrictions, to avoid all the problems that unlimited trial accounts gave us. To prevent abuse and inflicting a massive influx of nitwits and exploit hounds on the paying playerbase there would have to be some kind of wall between the F2P players and "real" players. But characters on such accounts are essentially unplayable for more than a few hours. You can't get a real feeling for the game on a trial sub. People tend to devalue things that cost nothing. They value expensive things, even when those things have no intrinsic value. Designer clothes and shoes are often shoddier than sturdy apparel that costs 10 times less. Yet everyone wants the fancy brand-name stuff. People also despise things that misrepresent themselves. If a game claims to be F2P, yet you get nickel- and dimed to death for everything you need, you wind up feeling cheated. You won't ever get invested in the game and you'll quickly leave. Also, giving something to new people for free (and letting in the rabble) would alienate many of the most devoted players. The last thing the devs can afford to do is tick off their paying playerbase. When you come right down to it, if people can't afford to play a computer game, then they shouldn't play the game. I would heartily endorse a better trial experience, but we've seen how hard that is to do. |
$14.99 monthly isn't really that much...people spend this much just going to the mall and a movie weekly.
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/Signed
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Originally Posted by Tabby_Cat
I would not do it!
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I find it interesting that the only two possibilities you acknowledge are not possibilities anyone has tried yet.|
Originally Posted by ClawsandEffect
There are 2 ways they can go with a free to play model.
1) Make the entire game free and not really take anything away from people. Result: People aren't spending money anymore, game goes dark because the profits dropped below what NCSoft finds acceptable. 2) Make the game free, but charge people small amounts for every little thing they do. Result: The game starts bleeding players like an arterial wound and the game goes dark because not enough people are even playing anymore to provide a profit level NCSoft finds acceptable. |
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| Is my outlook on this a little pessimistic? Yes, but it's also very realistic. If CoH goes free to play, I'll be anticipating the game being shut down within 18 months. |
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I wouldn't say that.|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
The F2P model is not fully accepted by the financiers.
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| One More comment I want to make, F2P is not free. You will pay more. |
The idea of the F2P model is that the playerbase as a whole pays more, so the company makes more. But the average player pays the same or less as the typical MMO subscriber for the same level of content. That makes the model individually attractive to individual players, and attractive on the whole for the company.
The trick is an execution trick: to ensure that the relative value you get at the different price points is attractive enough to attract players and convince a high enough percentage of them to pay. While its not an easy balancing act, the target is certainly not extremely difficult to hit because many games seem to hit it successfully.
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F2P won't work here because we're too smart. Most of us know this about F2P and will move as soon as they try it...unless it's a whole new game from the ground up!!
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
I wouldn't say that.
And this contradicts the above. The idea of the F2P model is that the playerbase as a whole pays more, so the company makes more. But the average player pays the same or less as the typical MMO subscriber for the same level of content. That makes the model individually attractive to individual players, and attractive on the whole for the company. The trick is an execution trick: to ensure that the relative value you get at the different price points is attractive enough to attract players and convince a high enough percentage of them to pay. While its not an easy balancing act, the target is certainly not extremely difficult to hit because many games seem to hit it successfully. |
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Your predictive skills are amazing.|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
F2P won't work here because we're too smart. Most of us know this about F2P and will move as soon as they try it...unless it's a whole new game from the ground up!!
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Can I have some winning lottery numbers while you're at it?
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Only thoughts I come about F2P here is the system that Anarchy Online used.
That game had a total of 220 lvls, where the last 20 where shadow lvls.
They made the 1-200 game a free to play (we called the new influx of players Froobs (free to play noobs, but there was no name calling about this).
That worked because you had zones and you had content and levels way past those 200 levels. The Froob was just limited to the main world of Rubi-Ka. You had the shadowlands and alien warzone and such stuff. And.. plenty of buffage such a F2P player did not have.
Many of the Froobs when playing (and getting into a good group and getting to know people) upgraded the Froob account to participate with the Alien raids (and get reasearch points for buffage) and all other stuff.
Now if this should be transferred to CoX then there must be a viable and great game past the lvl 50. Plenty to do, taskforces to do, zones to visit, buffs you need to do the other game.
Lets say it was only Paragon City or Only Rogue isle zones. Meaning Midnighter club, Cimerora, Oroboros, Praetoria and incarnate stuff was unavailable.
I would not recommend Praetoria only, no chance to play with veteran players.
The bad part about Free to play (big minus) players feel they can do what they want, say what they want and there will be no consequences. 
Unless you have a very grown up playerbase etc.
So far though F2P is just not viable. (Moar Content!)
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
F2P won't work here because we're too smart. Most of us know this about F2P and will move as soon as they try it...unless it's a whole new game from the ground up!!
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Originally Posted by Smersh
Your predictive skills are amazing.
Can I have some winning lottery numbers while you're at it? |
Honestly, (not seriously undervaluing the cleverness among the community) people jumping to conclusions would likely be a great negative to a long-lived game going F2P.
If those customers no longer need to spend money (or as much money) to play...
And they see this big change come in...
Their Doom Sense would be tingling like crazy...
And they'd be far less likely to throw more money into the new F2P model.
Now, I'm not one in favor of governing oneself by idiocy... Even if it is the most widely available resource... It is still an aspect to consider and approach cleverly, when/if making the switch to some F2P system.
While it certainly may not be true that the game would tank after 18 months of going F2P, the perception that this could be the case could make that the case. Or, more accurately, negatively impact the money coming in.
(Again, none of this has any agenda attached to it. I'm neither for nor against whatever this game goes ahead and does. I'll either continue enjoying it or not. This is all just for laughs.)
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Originally Posted by Smersh
Your predictive skills are amazing.
Can I have some winning lottery numbers while you're at it? |
I won't give you winning lottery numbers but I will say this:
A profitable business model is stable. It doesn't change on a fad. A company changes it methods only when the current model doesn't work.
The model they have is working and doesn't need to be changed currently. If you can't come up with $14.99 you need to get....
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the obvious answer is that if that is encountered on a large scale then that is a pretty clear indicator that you havent designed the F2P model correctly for your game. Basically the 'pay' elements are either not attractive enough or you are giving too much for free.|
Originally Posted by ClawsandEffect
If they are playing for free, and not spending a lot of money on microtransactions, those new/returning players aren't bring in any more money for NCSoft.
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| The only way the devs or anyone else can convince NCSoft that a free to play model is a good idea is if they can guarantee the game will remain profitable if they do it. And there is no way to make that kind of guarantee. |
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| There's also another aspect I hadn't mentioned: With the game earning less money (which is likely), they will probably cut the staff down again. That means there will be less content being released, and it will take longer. |
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| Also, free to play MIGHT give the game a quick infusion of cash when people buy the stuff they want, but what happens to that cash flow when most everyone has everything they want? They aren't going to buy stuff they don't want or need just to keep the game alive. After the first 6 months of F2P, the profit margin is going to narrow dramatically, NCSoft will start laying devs off, players will get annoyed that content is taking longer to be released, and basically it will be the beginning of the end for the game. |
Again i'm not saying it is a good or bad idea at this juncture. There are certainly real hurdles that would need to be overcome. My hope is that the sort of blind rejection and even fear mongering present in much of this thread, wouldn't be the primary motivator in stopping such an initiative.
In my -albeit limited and uninformed- opinion, I think going to free-to-play is a foregone conclusion. We ARE going free-to-play. It IS going to happen. When, not if, should be our main concern. I think this because of three main reasons:
1) Old MMOs go in this direction and if we are anything, we are old.
2) COX is already quasi-free-to-play as it is with all the booster goodies. It seems to work out pretty well with this community. Look at how geeked we are over the Steampunk stuff.
3) I am speculating that free-to-play will gradually become how all MMOs are made from the get-go. Word is the new Marvel game will be free-to-play from launch. I see a future where communities of gamers are not "owned" by a game because that's where their money is, but rather play in multiple games as a community.
Just my thoughts.
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Is this a Business 101 class?
Business paid subs are useful...for obvious reasons. F2p accounts will be laughed at by accountants/financiers. Paid subs is a model lots of industries use. Who else uses an F2P model besides gaming?
Can you do F2P at Mcdonalds or Starbucks?
Will Wal-mart let you do it?
Can you convince AT&T(They call it "Pay as you go"...but you pay first!)?
Monthly cashflow increases is the bottomline, paid subs are the accepted practice by business. It allows you to forecast with more reliability. There is no linkage, consistency between a discretionary purchase today and next week. It's a model that can be easily abused for accounting purposes. It won't work.
Let's watch Turbine for now and see what happens. They have the best chance to make this work because they built a model from scratch with no legacy base.
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Ok, working under the assumption that they are in a full F2P system as opposed to a hybrid one, if a rep presented the data that showed some typical player profiles and the cost was almost identical to what you pay now and you fit into one of those profiles - would such a clever consumer still see right through that and leave?|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
F2P won't work here because we're too smart. Most of us know this about F2P and will move as soon as they try it...unless it's a whole new game from the ground up!!
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
A profitable business model is stable. It doesn't change on a fad. A company changes it methods only when the current model doesn't work.
The model they have is working and doesn't need to be changed currently. If you can't come up with $14.99 you need to get.... |
There would only be mom and pop stores if that were the case. National and global entities emerge because motivated people ask things like "what can we do to capture more of the market?"
That isn't to say there is anything wrong with running a smaller operation but your premise that business ONLY seeks new answers when they are failing is quite incorrect.
Smart businesses and smart business people don't turn away people that they can extract profit from. Especially if they have a highly customizable product.
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You're stating your preferences as fact without evidence to back it up.|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
I won't give you winning lottery numbers but I will say this:
A profitable business model is stable. It doesn't change on a fad. A company changes it methods only when the current model doesn't work. The model they have is working and doesn't need to be changed currently. If you can't come up with $14.99 you need to get.... |
You should feel free to do that, but until you can show evidence that it doesn't work, I'm pretty much free to call you on it.
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Other 50s: Plant/Thorn, Bots/Traps, DB/SR, MA/Regen, Rad/Dark - All on Virtue.
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Have you ever heard the terms, "Pricing Power" or "Sustainable Pricing?" I say this because the smart people don't experiment with pricing because it can destroy your businesss. Businesss is not as flexible as you may think(Large Companies). You can destroy profitability of whole industries if you don't stay on top of this. This is why large companies eat other companies regularly to keep pricing power strong. F2P is a risk venture.
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Originally Posted by frosticus-11
Ok, working under the assumption that they are in a full F2P system as opposed to a hybrid one, if a rep presented the data that showed some typical player profiles and the cost was almost identical to what you pay now and you fit into one of those profiles - would such a clever consumer still see right through that and leave?
I can only assure you that the best companies are anything but complacent and satisfied with the status quo... There would only be mom and pop stores if that were the case. National and global entities emerge because motivated people ask things like "what can we do to capture more of the market?" That isn't to say there is anything wrong with running a smaller operation but your premise that business ONLY seeks new answers when they are failing is quite incorrect. Smart businesses and smart business people don't turn away people that they can extract profit from. Especially if they have a highly customizable product. |
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I'm not saying it can't work. COH doesn't have to be the leader in this area. Let someone else take the risk and learn from them. |
Originally Posted by Smersh
You're stating your preferences as fact without evidence to back it up.
You should feel free to do that, but until you can show evidence that it doesn't work, I'm pretty much free to call you on it. |
What "business" can you give stuff away for free and survive?
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The only MMO with any sort of appreciable pricing power is the 800 pound gorilla. Until and unless they change their pricing for monthly subscription games, you won't see an industry-wide change in subscription fees for MMOs.
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Originally Posted by Residentx10
Have you ever heard the terms, "Pricing Power" or "Sustainable Pricing?" I say this because the smart people don't experiment with pricing because it can destroy your businesss. Businesss is not as flexible as you may think(Large Companies). You can destroy profitability of whole industries if you don't stay on top of this. This is why large companies eat other companies regularly to keep pricing power strong. F2P is a risk venture.
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Comrade Smersh, KGB Special Section 8 50 Inv/Fire, Fire/Rad, BS/WP, SD/SS, AR/EM
Other 50s: Plant/Thorn, Bots/Traps, DB/SR, MA/Regen, Rad/Dark - All on Virtue.
-Don't just rebel, build a better world, comrade!
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I'm on record as saying if I was in charge, I would probably not take the risk of going F2P: I would expand significantly the current ala carte model exemplified by, but poorly executed within, the booster pack system. I might do something about trial accounts. But I'm aware there is risk involved in such a move.|
Originally Posted by Residentx10
F2P won't work here because we're too smart. Most of us know this about F2P and will move as soon as they try it...unless it's a whole new game from the ground up!!
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But having said that, as a player my playing decisions are based purely on value propositions: does the game give me enough value for my money. And as I'm also on record as saying, if the F2P model works, it should be possible to deliver more game to subscribers than they are currently getting now for the same amount of money, given higher net revenue overall. And if the players are as smart as you think they are they will decide based on whether they get more for the same amount of money, not if the game offers even more things for sale than their subscription costs. The latter is not an intelligent perspective.
In other words, suppose it was possible to quantify the amount of work within the average issue to date, and lets say its something like 10 man months of development time. If the F2P conversion ends up giving me 8 man months of content for my sub and the rest is ala carte, I would rightly think I was subsidizing the free players: that would be a worse value proposition than what I'm getting now. On the other hand, if after the F2P conversion I end up getting 12 man months of content, and then *on top of that* there's an additional 3 man months of content that is ala carte that is released in the same interval of time, on the one hand to get *everything* I would have to pay more. But I'm getting more game for what I was paying before, which means I'm better off. If we're talking about the intelligent choice the intelligent choice is to pick the choice that gives the most value for the money. Abandoning an MMO that goes F2P without knowing for certain which situation you're in isn't intelligent: its a knee-jerk reaction without foundation.
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