Mag 8.9 Sendai Earthquake


Acemace

 

Posted

Google Crisis Response - 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - includes direct donation to Japan Red Cross.

American Red Cross - you can also SMS text REDCROSS to 90999 to donate $10.

The bulk of the death and destruction wasn't from the shaking of the 5th largest earthquake on record but from the tsunami that came later and overwhelmed the tsunami defenses of the cities along the coast. Most were designed to handle a 5-6 meters (around 20ft) but the wave was 8-10 meters. You've all probably seen the videos by now of the tsunami pouring the ocean over those barriers, wiping out everything short of reinforced concrete structures, pushing the debris field up to several miles inland.

Pile on top of that the nuclear power plant crisis. Note that iodine tablets have only been distributed to those evacuated around the plant, not the entire population of Japan as some sources imply. EDIT: This was a prophylactic measure in case there's a large release of radioactive iodine, not because their was. There hasn't been a massive release of radiation ala Chernobyl but it is elevated and will continue to spike and wane every time they release steam from those three reactors (yes reactor #2 is having cooling problems now). Primary containment is still intact.

Please also remember that fear and uncertainty is one of the best ways to market the news, keeps the folks tuning in.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post
Pile on top of that the nuclear power plant crisis. Note that iodine tablets have only been distributed to those evacuated around the plant, not the entire population of Japan as some sources imply. EDIT: This was a prophylactic measure in case there's a large release of radioactive iodine, not because their was. There hasn't been a massive release of radiation ala Chernobyl but it is elevated and will continue to spike and wane every time they release steam from those three reactors (yes reactor #2 is having cooling problems now). Primary containment is still intact.
Correct.

The thyroid gland is very vulnerable to radiation damage because it absorbs a great deal of iodine from the blood and radioactive iodine is a major component of fallout. If you ingest the iodine pills BEFORE (several hours to a day is usually sufficient) being exposed to radioactive fallout, you can effectively "saturate" your thyroid with non-radioactive stuff, meaning it'll absorb substantially less of the radioactive stuff.

The iodine is rather useless AFTER exposure, as the thyroid is already engorged with the radioactive stuff. Its a precautionary measure.


 

Posted

My thoughts and heart are with all of those affected by this tragedy. With as devastating as this event is, it does make me feel good to see that we do, in fact, have a global community. Best wishes to all.

*heads for the Red Cross website*


 

Posted

Just saw on BBC that a third explosion has now taken place. This one at the containment building for core 2. They say likely another hydrogen explosion similar to the other two.


 

Posted

While the Fukushima Daiichi reactors continue to be a problem, two of the reactors most likely have suffered a partial meltdown and maintaining cooling has been difficult, there is some good news regarding the reactor problems at the Fukushima Daini nuclear plant.

From the IAEA updates on the Japanese crisis:

Quote:
Based on information provided by Japanese authorities, the IAEA can confirm the following information about the status of Units 1, 2, 3 and 4 at Fukushima Daini nuclear power plant.
All four units automatically shut down on 11 March. All units have off-site power and water levels in all units are stable. Though preparations have been made to do so, there has been no venting to control pressure at any of the plant´s units.
At Unit 1, plant operators were able to restore a residual heat remover system, which is now being used to cool the reactor. Work is in progress to achieve a cold shutdown of the reactor.
Workers at Units 2 and 4 are working to restore residual heat removal systems.
Unit 3 is in a safe, cold shutdown.
Radiation dose rate measurements observed at four locations around the plant´s perimeter over a 16-hour period on 13 March were all normal.


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Posted

Right now they are deducing a water leak because they seem to be losing liquid water faster than they are pumping it in. But its possible the rate they are pumping water in is lower than they are estimating because of high pressures in the reactor. If the containment vessel is leaking, and there has been a partial meltdown of nuclear fuel, the leaking water could be contaminated with radioactive material which would be a far more serious problem than the relatively small amount of radiation being released with the steam venting. They would then have to attempt to take steps to see that radioactive fuel particles do not escape the reactor building or premises. A combination of a fuel-laddened water leak combined with a hydrogen/steam explosion like they have been experiencing would become a serious radioactivity hazard for the entire area.

Still not Chernobyl, though. Keep in mind Chernobyl didn't just explode, it blew out its reactor exposing the core, which then caught fire sending radioactive smoke plumes high into the sky to contaminate huge areas downwind from the reactor. It would be locally very bad for the surrounding areas, but probably not a global or long range radiation problem. A containment vessel leak would make this a much more serious problem than Three Mile Island, though.


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Posted

Some good news: http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/...iupdate01.html

Japan Earthquake Update (15 March 2011, 03:35 CET)

Quote:
Japanese authorities yesterday reported to the IAEA at 21:05 CET that the reactors Units 1, 2 and 3 of the Fukushima Daini nuclear power plant are in cold shutdown status. This means that the pressure of the water coolant is at around atmospheric level and the temperature is below 100 degrees Celsius. Under these conditions, the reactors are considered to be safely under control
So Daini is under control now.

I don't think there has been an update on Daiichi yet.


 

Posted

ugh. More bad news. Sounds like a containment area for spent fuel rods in the offlined reactor 4 building caught fire today. The fire is supposedly out. But several news agencies are reporting local radiation levels got fairly high during the incident.

Also looks like Japan's stock market is taking beating today in the wake of the three disasters. Admittedly, try as I might, I know even less about stocks than nuclear engineering. NPR's marketplace tonight had someone conveying an anecdote that for the moment some supply chains are breaking down as far south as Tokyo due to the overall disruption of infrastructure with grocers showing severe shortages of certain food staples. Hope some of the NGOs we are donating to can help alleviate these pressures soon. The radio program also had a brief comment regarding electricity rationing with some parts of the country being allotted only 8 hours of power a day, including power going to manufacturing plants.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by je_saist View Post
Schismatrix posted the same IAEA update above.


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Posted

Note to trivialize this horrible news or anything, but each time I hear an update, I can't help but wonder, what would be the response in the CoH/CoV world?

Two of my characters are from that neck of the woods (One Blue-side and one Red-side). The blue side is catatonic and in shock. While the Redsider has gone: "Screw politics. I'm going over there to help. There are children hurting." (This response actually surprised me... but that's getting off beam)

Surely there is something we can do as a community to help?

Latest: http://au.yahoo.com/s/274370



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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
Schismatrix posted the same IAEA update above.
Nope. A: check the time stamp.

B: check the status of Reactor 1.

anyways, update on the fire at Daiichi


Quote:
Japanese Earthquake Update (15 March 07:35 UTC)

Japanese authorities have confirmed that the fire at the spent fuel storage pond at the Unit 4 reactor of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was extinguished on 15 March at 02:00 UTC.

Please note that all future communications from the IAEA regarding events in Japan will use the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) standard.

The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.
Quote:
Japanese Earthquake Update (15 March 11:25 UTC)
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Update

Radiation Dose Rates Observed at the Site

The Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that the following radiation dose rates have been observed on site at the main gate of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

At 00:00 UTC on 15 March a dose rate of 11.9 millisieverts (mSv) per hour was observed. Six hours later, at 06:00 UTC on 15 March a dose rate of 0.6 millisieverts (mSv) per hour was observed.

These observations indicate that the level of radioactivity has been decreasing at the site.

As reported earlier, a 400 millisieverts (mSv) per hour radiation dose observed at Fukushima Daiichi occurred between units 3 and 4. This is a high dose-level value, but it is a local value at a single location and at a certain point in time. The IAEA continues to confirm the evolution and value of this dose rate. It should be noted that because of this detected value, non-indispensible staff was evacuated from the plant, in line with the Emergency Response Plan, and that the population around the plant is already evacuated.

About 150 persons from populations around the Daiichi site have received monitoring for radiation levels. The results of measurements on some of these people have been reported and measures to decontaminate 23 of them have been taken. The IAEA will continue to monitor these developments.


 

Posted

The other big lucky break they've had is that all the prevailing winds with a weather change are going to take any radioactive materials out to sea. That rad rating je_saist quoted there will disperse over days.

There's a lot of misunderstanding of this situation, unfortunately. There's a lot of fear (the vast majority of which is unnecessary when you look at the actual situation, which is that the winds are taking this away and that they are continuing to contain this situation brilliantly well in my opinion) and remembered fear thanks to Chernobyl, and every explosion just heightens that along with the 6.3 magnitude quake that happened in the last few hours there.

No tsunami alerts, no extra damage that I know of. The bigger concern for me now is the humanitarian side of food shortages and finding what survivors there are to the north, and the financial side with how the stock markets are reacting in panic to the situation.


S.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by je_saist View Post
Nope. A: check the time stamp.

B: check the status of Reactor 1.
The link is a rolling update page: the status of Daini at the time was already confirmed to be basically stable, although its good news that they achieved a cold shutdown the reactor was already known to be shutdown with a functioning residual cooler.

For those not aware, the difference between "shutdown" and "cold shutdown" has to do with the way a nuclear reactor works. The primary fuel is uranium or plutonium, and it reacts by radioactive decay to produce heat. When the reactor is shutdown, moderators are used to absorb the neutrons emitted by the fuel, preventing them from producing chain reactions. The fuel stops chain reacting and producing heat, and the reaction shuts down. However, when the fuel radioactively decays, the decay products themselves are generally highly radioactive themselves, and they also decay (break down) to lighter elements releasing heat. When a nuclear reactor is shutdown, it takes hours or days for the left over decay elements naturally produced by the fuel when it is reacting to break down sufficiently so that they stop producing heat themselves. During that time, the reactor is no longer producing energy, but must still be cooled because the secondary heat can still be strong enough to damage the reactor if its not removed. When that heat is no longer being generated in quantities high enough to need additional cooling, the reactor is said to be "cold shutdown."

For all the reactors in question, this is the state they are trying to get them into. However, once they are shutdown, have no significant meltdown issues, no longer have steam overpressure issues, no longer have risks of hydrogen explosions due to uncovered cores, and have auxiliary residual cooling systems functioning correctly, that reactor is effectively no longer a threat. Its just a matter of waiting the few hours or a day or two for the reactor to cool.


Daiichi is going to be problematic because they had exposed reactor cores for long periods of time and may have partially melted down. When fuel melts down, it can separate from control moderators and continue to "burn" through nuclear reactions, generating excess heat and thwarting efforts to bring the reactor core under control. This exposure and resultant heat also the cause of the hydrogen explosions: when the reactor elements are not cooled by water they can superheat and oxidize with the steam taking up oxygen and generating free hydrogen gas. That's the source of the hydrogen in the hydrogen explosions at the nuclear power plants in Japan.


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Cold Shutdown basically means it's not generating steam anymore so the pressure in the containment tank is basically atmospheric and the water temp is below boiling.

It appears that one of the explosions at Reactor 3 damaged the offline Reactor 4 building. Reactors 4 through 6 were already offline before the quake, for months, for inspection.

Latest IAEA entry indicates that now the water level in Reactor 5 is decreasing around 3-4" per hour. Reactor 5 and 6 aren't that near to the other four but maybe it got struck by debris from either 1 or 3.

Link to old sat picture (very large) of the plant from 1975. The reactors from Left to Right are 4, 3, 2, 1 (big gap) 5, 6 (under construction at the time).


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Posted

If you're going to link to a news article, take care not to change the article's name with fear-mongering words. The article's title uses "suspends", not "abandons". The two words are completely different and inspire totally different emotional and rational responses. Japan has NOT "abandoned" Fukushima Daiichi.


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Posted

Apologies, I didn't intend to make it out to be worse than it is.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oathbound View Post
Apologies, I didn't intend to make it out to be worse than it is.
"Abandoned" has an implication of permanence, whereas I understand workers were sent back to the plant once radiation levels dropped after the spike.

CNN is reporting that they are using helicopter water drops to try to cool the reactors at Dai-ichi. They also briefly mention attempting to restore electrical power to the plant. Since the accident electrical crews have been trying to restore electrical power to the plant, which would give them access to more cooling and control systems than they currently have available. I didn't think they could restore those that quickly, but they seem to be in a position to begin the process of integrating the electrical systems on site with an emergency power line that was run out to the Dai-ichi site. Hopefully, restoring emergency electrical power will help them get the reactors under more control.


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Right now I'm torn between wanting to know what is currently going on but not wanting to doom and gloom spin that nearly all the news sites/news channels. Little things like word choice which implies one thing when actually another is happening. Leading questions that include words like "inevitable" makes me want to reach out and slap those talking heads. Their choices for their "experts" ranging from "Bill Nye the Science Guy" to investment bankers who specialize in green energy to those in the scientific community who are diametrically oppose to nuclear energy period (if you bother to Google up their bios) while discounting experts from MIT and CALTECH and others since they aren't crying the "SKY IS FALLING" but rather talk about the facts released to the general public.

Which is why I've try to put everything in context by checking the postings at the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) site.

What's not going to help is the NYTimes now has computer projections about the radioactive plume's path. Note the radiation levels are in arbitrary (aka meaningless) units and even though they bolded "The forecast does not show actual levels of radiation" and "extremely minor health consequences", want to bet this will be used literally "scare up" more viewers and readers.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcanaville View Post
"Abandoned" has an implication of permanence, whereas I understand workers were sent back to the plant once radiation levels dropped after the spike.

CNN is reporting that they are using helicopter water drops to try to cool the reactors at Dai-ichi. They also briefly mention attempting to restore electrical power to the plant. Since the accident electrical crews have been trying to restore electrical power to the plant, which would give them access to more cooling and control systems than they currently have available. I didn't think they could restore those that quickly, but they seem to be in a position to begin the process of integrating the electrical systems on site with an emergency power line that was run out to the Dai-ichi site. Hopefully, restoring emergency electrical power will help them get the reactors under more control.
Ya know, in all honesty reading over the article again I get that, but I could swear when I first read it it had a more definitive tone, and there was more emphasis on this particular passage:

Quote:
"It's more of a surrender," said David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who now heads the nuclear safety program for the Union of Concerned Scientists, an activist group. "It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse."

"It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel," Lochbaum said.
I fully admit though that everything I've read today (that was the last article I'd found last night, just got back online a few hours ago) indicates that "Abandon" was definitely the wrong word to use.


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Posted

[rant]

If the Union of Concerned Scientists were around 400,000 years ago they would be still debating today if the discovery of fire was a good thing and whether it should be used.

Okay the aren't that bad but they are extremely conservative in the advancement of science, especially in the field of nuclear energy as well as some more modern discoveries and advances.

I've found some of their members to be over cautious to the point of paralysis. They are the kind of people who aren't willing to help fix a problem but are rather the ones that like to say "I told you so". Now if they're all so smart then help brainstorm some solutions that don't include time travel so those reactors aren't built in the first place. Nope, easier to declare defeat and throw in the towel.

[/rant]

You see in engineering, the biggest strides come from understanding failure. Why did that bridge or building collapse? Why did that engine explode? Finding out the whys allows engineers to incorporate those types of failures into future designs hopefully making the finished design more robust.

The problem with nuclear engineering is that failure has a fairly high collateral damage so the more traditional methods of "build->failure->analyze->build better" is somewhat problematic. You need the same kind of mindset that top level programmers need, not only design for what it should do but try to anticipate all the things that can go wrong and design against that. You have to worship Murphy's law and all it's corollaries. And just like programming, sometimes you can't anticipate everything that can go wrong.

Some of it is human nature. I'm sure they were so focused on restoring cooling the active reactors, the immediate and continuing problem, that nobody was paying attention to cooling the spent fuel pools, which is now becoming a problem five days in.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post
You see in engineering, the biggest strides come from understanding failure. Why did that bridge or building collapse? Why did that engine explode? Finding out the whys allows engineers to incorporate those types of failures into future designs hopefully making the finished design more robust.

The problem with nuclear engineering is that failure has a fairly high collateral damage so the more traditional methods of "build->failure->analyze->build better" is somewhat problematic. You need the same kind of mindset that top level programmers need, not only design for what it should do but try to anticipate all the things that can go wrong and design against that. You have to worship Murphy's law and all it's corollaries. And just like programming, sometimes you can't anticipate everything that can go wrong.
The operative phrase is: code is written in blood. It means the rules engineers follow that dictate the standard way of doing things all represent rules created after people died when we didn't follow those rules. Something goes wrong, we figure out what that was, we make a rule that ensures that one specific thing doesn't happen again, and that becomes the new standard. You usually hear it most often in structural engineering: building codes are written in blood. High rises have sprinkler systems not because someone thought it would be a good idea, but because one too many people were incinerated in building fires. This is also a principle well known at the National Transportation Safety Board as it pertains to FAA regulations. A lot of those are also written in blood.

Is it because engineers are just too dumb to anticipate these things before someone dies? Not really. The dirty secret of engineering is almost *all* engineering-related deaths are trivially preventable. The problem isn't that we don't know where the problems are, but that we don't know *precisely* where they are. When we know there is a problem, but we cannot state with certainty the *precise* parameters of that problem, we have to overestimate a solution. Translation: spend more money.

The notion that you can't design a safe nuclear reactor, or safe building or car or toothpick, is ludicrous. The problem is that the design provably safe will probably cost a lot. So engineers start getting asked the stupid, stupid question: "would it hurt if we cut back here?" And the answer is: we don't know for certain. We know this is safe. We know that is not safe. Everything in the middle is beyond our ability to be certain about. So we guess. When we guess wrong, people die. And then we guess something else.

Every time someone tells you an engineering disaster was the result of "human error" or "unforseen circumstances" they are blowing the smoke all engineers know is part of the game. A game in which the only proof people will accept that the rules cut too deeply into safety margins are that it kills people.

The fact that nuclear power plants are in a potential tsunami inundation zone is not in and of itself stupid. The fact that they knew the power plants were in a tsunami inundation zone and didn't plan for the need for portable generators to replace backup electrical power that was at high risk of being damaged by a tsunami is honestly both an idiotic mistake and probably one done because no one could prove it was necessary to justify the cost. When you have to prove you need it rather than prove you don't need it, you're basically saying its ok to kill people to figure out if you were right or wrong. And engineers do it every day. And to be honest, the nuclear power industry has killed far less people in the pursuit of writing their engineering codes than most industries. The infant toy industry has more blood on its hands than the entire nuclear industry even if you count the effects of nuclear weapons.


Quote:
Some of it is human nature. I'm sure they were so focused on restoring cooling the active reactors, the immediate and continuing problem, that nobody was paying attention to cooling the spent fuel pools, which is now becoming a problem five days in.
There is some evidence to suggest they were paying attention, but considered the fuel pools to be a lower priority problem until they actually became a high priority problem. There's also evidence to suggest that the people in charge are as worried about doing something that will make matters worse as they are about failing to do enough. That too is human nature, but completely inappropriate human nature under these specific circumstances. There's another saying in emergency situations like these: doing nothing is choosing to do something: usually the worst possible thing.


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