I Hate the Market: a Random Roll Log
By
Aliana Blue,
Posted on: 2011-03-10 24:39 in The Market and Inventions
Quote:
Oh, I'm not quitting yet. Just licking my wounds a little.|
Originally Posted by FreakofFate
Ouch... thats had to hurt a bit... so.. with random being as random as it is.. are you going to continue with the rolls?.. (
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I try to look at it like this: the game just handed me 385 million inf, compared to before Alignment Merits when I wouldn't have gotten it. Even if each AM got me only 1 inf each, technically, that's still inf I wouldn't have had before AMs were added to the game so it's all "icing on the cake" so to speak.
I myself do okay at the auction game (this thread is an experiment and not representative of my usual marketing), but I just don't enjoy it so I try to minimize contact with it for the most part. I do view it as a necessary "evil" because it's still the best way to get many of the items in the game, and I love that AMs let me do an "end-run" around the market when I want.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
And now for today's random roll!
ROLL THE NINTH:
Decimation: Acc/Dam/Rech (Recipe). 4,500,005
Miracle: +Recovery (Recipe). 100,000,005
Luck of the Gambler: +7.5% Recharge Speed (Recipe). 108,000,005
Obliteration: Acc/Dam/Rech/End (Recipe). 63,000,005
Call of the Sandman: Chance for Self Heal (Recipe). 5
THIS ROLL: 275,500,025
NINE ROLL TOTAL: 661,021,908
NINE ROLL AVERAGE: 73,446,879
COMMENTARY: The wheel, it turns, it goes around. It makes an ancient influence sound! I feel better now. This is my best roll, and it follows my worst. Random is random. This roll was worth nearly as much as the first 8 rolls combined! Wow! I gotta say, two-thirds of a billion for nine days of work ain't bad. And I'm again above my target by 6 million or so. Of course, there's nowhere to go but down from here. 
I have all my earnings earning additional interest (8% daily rate which means the APR is approximately one-berdillion%) in a LOTG money market account. There is no FDIC for Wentworth's though. 
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
5?.... really?... lmao /facepalm
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Originally Posted by Daemodand
Call of the Sandman: Chance for Self Heal (Recipe). 5
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Quote:
I thought about vendoring it, but I saw there were some good bids in the history, so I took the chance at 1 inf and got burned. It's a very so-so IO, and IMHO 5 is about what it's really worth. Well okay, more like 10k, but that's pretty much the same thing. |
Originally Posted by FreakofFate
5?.... really?... lmao /facepalm
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And that 5 inf came along with about 200 million friends, so I really don't care at all that 1 recipe sold for nothing. Was probably a flipper that bought it and put it back up for 1 million. 1 whole million. Yawn! And now for today's random roll!
ROLL THE TENTH:
Force Feedback*: Rech/Endurance (Recipe). V9,995
Trap of the Hunter: Acc/Immob/Rech (Recipe). V9,995
Touch of Death: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe). 100,005
Lockdown: Chance for +2 Mag Hold (Recipe). 45,006
Touch of Death: Dam/End/Rech (Recipe). 509,096
THIS ROLL: 674,097
TEN ROLL TOTAL: 661,696,005
TEN ROLL AVERAGE: 66,169,601
COMMENTARY: Feast and famine! My highest roll ever is followed by my newest lowest roll ever lol. I'm right on target, though, and there's nowhere to go but up!
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
How about a late night random roll!
ROLL THE ELEVENTH:
2 Positron's Blast: Dam/Acc/End (Recipe). 15,318,010
Devastation: Chance to hold (Recipe). V9,995
Miracle: +Recovery (Recipe). 105,437,336
Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe). 699,005
THIS ROLL: 121,464,346
ELEVEN ROLL TOTAL: 783,160,351
ELEVEN ROLL AVERAGE: 71,196,395
COMMENTARY: And up we go! One piece of junk, three decent recipes and a great recipe. Sitting comfortably just above my target. Three-quarters of a billion in eleven days, eleven Alignment Merits, no crafting. Not bad at all!
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
how are you getting one merit a day?... alternating toons?
Quote:
Most of the rolls have come from my MA/SR Scrapper Daemodand so far. He had a stockpile and I thought I'd entertain myself by expending them publicly. As he runs out, my alts are pitching in, and Daemodand converts the occasional Reward Merits as well since I'm revisiting all the game's story arcs with him.| how are you getting one merit a day?... alternating toons? |
One could gain 1 Alignment Merit a day just by running two alts through Tip Missions, as well. It takes less than an hour to complete a set of 5 Tip Missions, so it isn't really time intensive.
And now it's time for today's random roll!
ROLL THE TWELFTH:
Time & Space Manipulation: +Stealth (Recipe). V9,995
Impervium Armor: +Psionic Resist (Recipe). 1,080,140
Aegis: End/Rech (Recipe). 456
Executioner's Contract: Disorient Bonus (Recipe). V9,995
Gift of the Ancients: Defense (Recipe). 4,509,014
THIS ROLL: 5,609,600
TWELVE ROLL TOTAL: 788,769,951
TWELVE ROLL AVERAGE: 65,730,829
COMMENTARY: And back to crap rolls. I'm still right on target though, and the next roll is bound to be higher, so no problem. I got burned on the Aegis. There were more bids out than recipes, and they were going for 1 millionish, but mine went for next to nothing thanks to my 1 inf rule. C'est la vie!
I put in a bid for a PvP +Def IO. Average wait time: 64 days.
It isn't a game-changer for my build so I can wait.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
I never have much inf but is crafting a recipe and selling it for 5 million really worth the effort?|
Originally Posted by Stone Daemon
Your sell prices are seriously making me cry. If you had crafted these, you could have made several times what you made off of it.
 The crafted makos/lockdown's alone can sell 5-8 million, Touch of Deaths and Posi blasts go for 8-15 million, and I'm pretty sure that GotA: Run speed goes for more than that (so I assume you're just lowballing everything for minimal marketeering time?). If you don't AE for easy rare salvage accumulation, I would still say it's worth the investment to craft these suckers to get the full return on your A-Merit purchases. |
Cost:
rare salvage + crafting cost + transaction fee
3 + 0.5 + 0.5 = 4 million
Profit:
less than 1 million
He might make more just selling the recipe and running a mission instead of crafting.
Thankyou very much for this thread I have often wondered if I was wasting my time crafting my rares. I hate crafting with a passion.
Quote:
If you're buying the rare salvage in advance (and usually in bulk- why not buy six if you're leaving the bid up), you can get it for more like 2.2 million. |
Originally Posted by Ghostwind_EU
I never have much inf but is crafting a recipe and selling it for 5 million really worth the effort?
Cost: rare salvage + crafting cost + transaction fee 3 + 0.5 + 0.5 = 4 million Profit: less than 1 million He might make more just selling the recipe and running a mission instead of crafting. |
But I agree that 5 million for something that requires a rare is not a particularly good price. I have a few things that I sell as space fillers [basically, the equivalent of generic IO's but with ten times the profit] and some of them sell for 2-5 million, but they don't require rare salvage. The ones I sell which need rare salvage sell for 8-10 million.
Mini-guides: Force Field Defenders, Blasters, Market Self-Defense, Frankenslotting.
So you think you're a hero, huh.
@Boltcutter in game.
Quote:
I have no illusions about crafting making more money in the long run. If you craft, you will get more inf, in all likelihood. Now, using the time you'd be purchasing materials, crafting, pricing and listing enhancements for running missions, I don't know if that will lead to more inf, unless you're a high end farmer (do hard core farmers craft generally speaking?)|
Originally Posted by Ghostwind_EU
He might make more just selling the recipe and running a mission instead of crafting.
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This experiment is all about minimal market contact and minimal effort (no crafting). It's a given I'm going to make less on this stuff than a crafter would, but how much less? And is that much less worth the tradeoff? Speaking only for myself, based on the rolls so far, the answer is "yes". Of course, this could change based on future rolls (my target is around 67 million per roll).
Quote:
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Originally Posted by _Klaw_
Thankyou very much for this thread I have often wondered if I was wasting my time crafting my rares. I hate crafting with a passion.
|
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
psst... Random is random.|
Originally Posted by Daemodand
COMMENTARY: And back to crap rolls. I'm still right on target though, and the next roll is bound to be higher,
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And, if it's not random, you just jinxed yourself and the next roll will be worse.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Wow. That 9th roll was epic. And all auctioned at 1inf?
Balls. Of. Steel.
You, sir, deserve a badge (on top of your insane profit!)
Craft your inventions in AE!!
Play "Crafter's Cafe" - Arc #487283. A 1 mission, NON-COMBAT AE arc with workable invention tables!
Quote:
While you're quite right, let me explain myself. The roll system is random, but not totally chaotic. If you roll a 6-sided die and roll a one, could you have a reasonable expectation that the next roll would most likely be higher than 1? | psst... Random is random. |
Yes, the second roll is more likely to be higher than 1 than equal to it. That's my line of thinking in such comments as predicting the next roll in a system of random rolls. When you get a known low roll, it is more likely that one of the higher rolls will show up on the next roll, just like on that 6-sided die.
Quote:
| Wow. That 9th roll was epic. And all auctioned at 1inf? |
And now for today's random roll!
ROLL THE "LUCKY" THIRTEENTH:
2 Mako's Bite: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe). 46,810
Analyze Weakness: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe). 135,005
Kinetic Combat: Dam/End/Rech (Recipe). 126,076,505
Obliteration: Chance for smashing damage (Recipe). 23,400,005
THIS ROLL: 149,658,325
THIRTEEN ROLL TOTAL: 938,428,276
THIRTEEN ROLL AVERAGE: 72,186,790
COMMENTARY: I expected better prices out of those Bites, but given the rest of the roll, I can't complain. Kinetic Combats are worth their weight in inf. I'm still right around my target, with some buffer for a bad roll or two.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
And now for today's random roll!
ROLL THE FOURTEENTH:
Aegis: +Psionic and Mez Resist (Recipe). V9,995
Gift of the Ancients: +7.5% Run Speed (Recipe). V9,995
Devastation: Dam/Rech (Recipe). PENDING
Freebird: +Stealth (Recipe). V9,995
Ghost Widow's Embrace: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe). V9,995
THIS ROLL: 39,980 PENDING
FOURTEEN ROLL TOTAL: 938,468,256
FOURTEEN ROLL AVERAGE: 67,033,446
COMMENTARY: I've just redefined how low a low roll can go lol. Still right on target, so I'm not worried. Devastations are going for around 200K, so when it comes in it'll have zero effect on this crap roll.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
In my case, it is worth it.|
Originally Posted by Ghostwind_EU
I never have much inf but is crafting a recipe and selling it for 5 million really worth the effort?
Cost: rare salvage + crafting cost + transaction fee 3 + 0.5 + 0.5 = 4 million Profit: less than 1 million He might make more just selling the recipe and running a mission instead of crafting. |
Step 1: AE map run (Total time, 5 minutes. Net roughly 7-10million inf, and 1500 tickets.)
Step 2: Random Silver rolls. If what you get sucks, vendor/delete it.
Step 3: Acquire rare salvage via tickets.
Step 4: Craft, spending maybe 100-100,000 inf on common salvage only.
Step 5: Profit. At this point, you have netted anywhere from 3-6 million per cheap recipe, much more if the recipe is actually worth something.
Step 6: See Step 1.
I can run a couple AE runs, come out with 5,000 tickets in maybe 20 minutes of work, convert those tickets into 50 million inf with bad rolls. Quite often I get kinetic Combats and Numina rolls that sell for 60-80 million a pop.
But we're not talking about my methods, so YMMV.
Quote:
This project had inspired me to do something similar, but I ran out of energy after about 8-10 rolls. You will get more inf from crafting, but it wasn't as much more as I thought it would be. For the good stuff like LotG 7.5% I found that you net about 30mm extra. For the marginal stuff, I found you can get 5-10mm extra from a lot of vendor trash. I think I was running about an extra 50mm net per A-Merit roll by selective crafting over selling at the lowest bid outstanding (which I approximated by the lowest of the last 5 sales of the recipe).|
Originally Posted by Daemodand
I have no illusions about crafting making more money in the long run. If you craft, you will get more inf, in all likelihood. Now, using the time you'd be purchasing materials, crafting, pricing and listing enhancements for running missions, I don't know if that will lead to more inf, unless you're a high end farmer (do hard core farmers craft generally speaking?)
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If you don't like crafting, and you don't want to have to deal with buying the salvage and crafting and reselling the enhancements, then I can see that the extra pick up in inf may not be worth it to some people.
Thanks again for the good work.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a *real* useful invention. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...t-sarcasm.html
Quote:
And thanks for reading! I completely understand running out of steam after 10 rolls. I definitely feel the grind myself, but I guess this thread gets me to persevere.|
Originally Posted by Yomo_Kimyata
Thanks again for the good work.
|
And now for today's random roll!
ROLL THE FIFTEENTH:
2 Luck of the Gambler: End/Rech (Recipe). -3
Decimation: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe). 271,005
Touch of Death: Dam/End/Rech (Recipe). 1,800,005
Mako's Bite: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe). 10,805
THIS ROLL: 2,081,812
FIFTEEN ROLL TOTAL: 940,550,068
FIFTEEN ROLL AVERAGE: 62,703,338
COMMENTARY: The final numbers are in, and it's a bad roll. Only slightly below my target. It's interesting to see how one could pretty easily earn about 2 billion a month just from selling AM random roll recipes.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
I guess this is a bit OT but...|
Originally Posted by Stone Daemon
In my case, it is worth it.
Step 1: AE map run (Total time, 5 minutes. Net roughly 7-10million inf, and 1500 tickets.) Step 2: Random Silver rolls. If what you get sucks, vendor/delete it. Step 3: Acquire rare salvage via tickets. Step 4: Craft, spending maybe 100-100,000 inf on common salvage only. Step 5: Profit. At this point, you have netted anywhere from 3-6 million per cheap recipe, much more if the recipe is actually worth something. Step 6: See Step 1. I can run a couple AE runs, come out with 5,000 tickets in maybe 20 minutes of work, convert those tickets into 50 million inf with bad rolls. Quite often I get kinetic Combats and Numina rolls that sell for 60-80 million a pop. But we're not talking about my methods, so YMMV. |
...your answer seems to enforce my theory that crafting something with almost no profit is "wasting" a few of those minutes you could be doing an AE-run (or something else).
You *could* just sell your rare salvage for 3 million and sell all the cheap rare recipes uncrafted. You would only miss out on the (less than) 1 million profit per recipe but you would save a lot of time.
Quote:
If only that were the case. No, most of the differences between the recipe and the crafted enhancement are quite large. For example, a recipe for lockdown going for 1,000 influence, when crafted, sells for 8-10 million. That's a net profit of at LEAST 5 million influence, as opposed to selling the individual pieces. I just did this to two lockdown pieces last night, as a matter of fact. Also, rare salvage prices are falling, so I'm looking at mainly 2 million a pop for those.|
Originally Posted by Ghostwind_EU
I guess this is a bit OT but...
...your answer seems to enforce my theory that crafting something with almost no profit is "wasting" a few of those minutes you could be doing an AE-run (or something else). You *could* just sell your rare salvage for 3 million and sell all the cheap rare recipes uncrafted. You would only miss out on the (less than) 1 million profit per recipe but you would save a lot of time. |
When I feel like being lazy and/or there is a piece of salvage selling well, however, I will take advantage of that.
Sorry for going OT, Daemodand!
Quote:
I don't consider it off topic because how much more profitable crafting is is one of the central themes of this thread. You can make x amount by selling the recipes and components, and you can make x+y amount by crafting and selling, but at the added expense of time, and probably researching the market. Whether one or the other is preferable is something each person has to decide for themselves, depending on what they enjoy, or hate the least.|
Originally Posted by Stone Daemon
Sorry for going OT, Daemodand!
|
And now for today's random roll!
ROLL THE SIXTEENTH:
Mako's Bite: Chance for lethal damage (Recipe). 4,506
Ghost Widow's Embrace: Acc/Hold/Rech (Recipe). V10,000
Touch of Death: Dam/End/Rech (Recipe). 450,905
Glimpse of the Abyss: Acc/Fear/Rech (Recipe). V10,000
Devastation: Acc/Dam/Rech (Recipe). 1,080,106
THIS ROLL: 1,555,517
SIXTEEN ROLL TOTAL: 942,105,585
SIXTEEN ROLL AVERAGE: 58,881,599
COMMENTARY: Another crap roll brings me 10 million below my target. Three bad rolls in a row.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
See, this is what happens when you say things like 'the next roll is bound to be higher, so no problem'. You have angered the RNG gods!|
Originally Posted by Daemodand
COMMENTARY: Another crap roll brings me 10 million below my target. Three bad rolls in a row.
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After three bad rolls, you're still making a fairly decent return, though. Even without buying A-merits, it's looking like around a billion is a perfectly plausible return for one character running tips for a month.
Arc#314490: Zombie Ninja Pirates!
Defiant @Grouchybeast
Death is part of my attack chain.
Quote:
I've got very nearly a billion in half a month, so two billion in a month is very achievable. All just by random rolling and selling the recipes for 1 inf. And then you've got the income from actually running the missions, too. Three billion a month for all your inf from defeats, mission completes, drops and random AM rolls is not out of the question, and can almost be expected, it would seem. But certainly two billion at the very least.|
Originally Posted by Grouchybeast
After three bad rolls, you're still making a fairly decent return, though. Even without buying A-merits, it's looking like around a billion is a perfectly plausible return for one character running tips for a month.
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I've gotten to the point that I just roll my eyes at people who say they can't earn any inf in this game. If you can't earn any inf in this game you are actively avoiding it.
The best comics are still 10�!
My City of Heroes Blog Freedom Feature Article: "Going Rageless?"
If you only read one guide this year, make it this one.
Super Reflexes: the Golden Fox of power sets!
WARNING: I bold names.
Quote:
I predict that this statement will end up in at least one .sig.|
Originally Posted by Daemodand
If you can't earn any inf in this game you are actively avoiding it.
|
So I shall quote it for extreme truthiness.
My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.
EIGHT ROLL TOTAL: 385,521,883
EIGHT ROLL AVERAGE: 48,190,235
COMMENTARY: My best roll is followed by my worst. 3 vendorables and a fourth that should have been vendored. One half-way decent recipe. Random is a harsh mistress! The good news is the next roll practically has to be higher than this. I'll tell you though, so far this method is looking like it's not panning out. One wouldn't have too difficult a time using the direct-buy-craft-sell method to beat 48 million per AM, heck, one could probably direct-buy-sell and beat that. Oh, well! Random is random!
I have a few auctions up that I thought would be good money makers, but they have not sold in over a week. lvl 17 + regeneration procs.. I have 3 of em up =(