I Hate the Market: a Random Roll Log

And now for today's random roll!

ROLL THE SEVENTEENTH:
Mako's Bite: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe). 9,005
2 Touch of Death: Acc/Dam/End (Recipe). 383,410
Miracle: +Recovery (Recipe). 113,400,005
Obliteration: Chance for smashing damage (Recipe). 23,850,904

THIS ROLL: 137,643,324
SEVENTEEN ROLL TOTAL: 1,079,748,909
SEVENTEEN ROLL AVERAGE: 63,514,642

COMMENTARY: And we're officially over the 1 billion mark. Still about 5 million less per roll than target, but can't complain as this was a pretty good roll.

WARNING: I bold names.

Finally on my 3rd attempt I got a decent figure. Approx 175mil.
Even if there are faster ways to earn 2bil I don't care, this is my kind of marketeering.

Technically my thread titled "Lazy Marketeer's Journal" is a complete lie. THIS is lazy marketeering in action. ^_^

And I completely agree with you: good recipes will always sell well; there are too many people trying to buy them. I make most of my money by buying up marginal recipes cheap and selling the crafted versions for a profit. Probably bought a few from you in the last two weeks. ^_^

I'm going to put that Kinetic Combat down to the "list for a penny" effect.

Have you noticed that you've popped any price bubbles?

Great thread, thank you for posting.

I found myself slowly scrolling down, one by one, saying aloud "DOH!" every time a vendor recipe came up and fist-pumping when a LOTG or Numina rolled by.

I follow different moneymaking methods myself. But this was a lot of fun!

And now for today's random roll!

ROLL THE NINETEENTH:
Scirocco's Dervish: Dam/Acc/End (Recipe). 450,005
Edict of the Master: Aura 5% Defense Buff for Pets (Recipe). 18,005
Devastation: Dam/Rech (Recipe). V10,000
Positron's Blast: Dam/Acc/End (Recipe). 6,300,905
Devastation: Acc/Dam/Rech (Recipe). 675,096

THIS ROLL: 7,454,011
NINETEEN ROLL TOTAL: 1,242,923,387
NINETEEN ROLL AVERAGE: 65,417,020

COMMENTARY: Time for another crap roll. Only a couple million off target though. The outstanding Edict won't bring in enough to make a difference.

P.S. Today I got enough Shards on my MA/SR to craft my rare Alpha when I20 launches, too.

EDIT: The outstanding Edict went for 18K. Numbers updated.

WARNING: I bold names.

And now for today's random roll!

ROLL THE TWENTIETH:
Numina's Convalescence: +Recovery and +Regeneration (Recipe). 50,490,005
Scirocco's Dervish: Dam/Acc/End (Recipe). 900,005
Devastation: Dam/Rech (Recipe). 35,105
Lockdown: Acc/End/Rech/Hold (Recipe). V10,000
Gaussian's Synchronized Fire-Control*: Rech/End Reduction (Recipe). 27,000,005

THIS ROLL: 78,435,120
TWENTY ROLL TOTAL: 1,321,358,507
TWENTY ROLL AVERAGE: 66,067,925

COMMENTARY: A slightly above-average roll. I didn't realize the Gaussian's Rech/End was worth quite that much, but I suppose the fact it has Recharge makes it valuable. My 1 inf rule is definitely costing me a few million on each good recipe. I guesstimate I'd be 5%-10% higher than this total if I charged going rate instead of 1. Oh, well!

My estimate of what a random roll is worth as stated in the OP is proving pretty accurate so far.

WARNING: I bold names.

Actually the Gaussian's is the rarest piece of the set which has ~Very~ Nice Defense bonuses.

This thread makes me believe I could be a whole lot more profitable If I Pulled Rolled Recipes more often, I simply just craft drops from on hand salvage and sale those. Mind you I haven't been in the market very long but the Market fees always struck a sour core when it hits me up for a Post fee and a collection fee. Kind of reminds me of the IRS... it gets you coming and going and somewhere in-between. Just for the sake of do it I'm going to have to try that 1inf posting just to see where it gets me.

Never been much for AE missions but maybe I need to stick my head in there for a few runs.

And now for today's random roll!

ROLL THE TWENTY-FIRST:
Performance Shifter*: Rech/Acc (Recipe). 500,005
Pacing of the Turtle: End/Rech/Slow (Recipe). V10,000
Expedient Reinforcement: End/Dam/Rech (Recipe). V10,000
Mako's Bite: Acc/End/Rech (Recipe). 6,755
Numina's Convalescence: +Recovery and +Regeneration (Recipe). 54,000,904

THIS ROLL: 54,527,664
TWENTY-ONE ROLL TOTAL: 1,375,886,171
TWENTY-ONE ROLL AVERAGE: 65,518,389

COMMENTARY: The Numina's saved the roll from being a complete loss.

WARNING: I bold names.

Looks like I'm done with this project. Issue 20 is just around the corner and I'm rearranging how I'm approaching my in-game time. Yes, Issue 20 is that much of a game changer for me, and in the best possible way.

The rolls were producing right around where I suspected they would be, so I've proven to myself that an Alignment Merit is worth somewhere around 70 million. This is of course based on a statistically meaningless number of rolls, but all indications are that this is a good rule of thumb nonetheless. Take it for what it is: an anecdotal example, but one that agrees with other data points such as the cost of the top-tier (30-35 AM cost) PvP IOs and other people's random rolls.

The lesson we learned about crafting is that you can net something like 40% more Inf per roll if you craft and sell, but if you just sell the recipes you can still get a very respectable amount of Inf for minimal effort (somewhere around 2 billion in a month's time).

Are random rolls worth it? Everyone has to decide that for themselves. For myself I'm going to be using my AMs chiefly for buying things I'm actually going to use. If random rolls have a place in my AM strategy, I don't yet know what that is.

Thanks to everyone for reading and commenting!

WARNING: I bold names.

Thanks for posting! It's been an interesting read.

Thanks for taking the time to post this experiment!

Thanks. I will now craft smarter not harder.