The Defence Myth


all_hell

 

Posted

The OP mixes two different unrelated contentions, the last 5% of defense is more valuable (truth by the numbers agreed by all), 5% of defense is more valuable than an equivalent level of regen (which the OP contends is false, and I for one have never heard that claimed anywhere, nor do I like mixing my apples and oranges).

In short, the OP's point is valid: mitigation is mitigation is mitigation.

However...

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
Let's think about this for a minute. Let's use the example of my Invulnerability Scrapper. His build operates around the softcap, and has 2409 HP and a regeneration rate of around 28 HP/sec with Dull Pain up.

Let's say I surround him with stuff that is going to kill him in 30 seconds. That means they're dealing around 108.3 DPS. Edit: net after accounting for my defense.

If I assume he's at 40% defense and can get him from 40% to 45%, I will halve their average DPS. I will now live 92.1 seconds.

Now, what do you think is easier for my Scrapper: adding 5% defense or adding 54.1 HP/sec regeneration?
...this example clearly states the issue which is really about the ease of gaining high level benefits (the last 5% of defense) rather than the value of the equivalent mitigation itself.

I think the supposed myth stands far more firmly as established truth.


<sidenote>
Now, I am a bit of heretic, and say layered mitigation FTW!

To squeeze a touch more out of any build I study defense options first and layer behind that with resists and regen (not because its better but because is easier with the current set bonus options and power selections on most characters). And I love adding defense to non-def based sets to get the most from the layers (elec armor) or balancing up something that has some of both (dark armor). But take something like a blaster - slotting up regen helps, it is difficult to gain equivalent resists, but you can get real benefit in ranged def boosting to layer on top of increased regen to create a solid character.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
My point is exactly that. You should be careful about your interpretation. Expressing mitigation in these terms leads to false conclusions. It should be written as a quantity of mitigation. That quantity (if defence or resistance) will depend on how much damage you face.
But if you choose a given DPS target, as the immortality line model does, you can see which changes move the time you survive higher. That's all that matters. That's mathematically the same as choosing a duration you'll survive and seeing what makes the DPS you'll live that long against go up.

A higher immortality line always means you live longer on average in the face of any average damage for which you will not already live forever. The actual numbers do not matter. I don't know why you keep referring to the exact damage for the immortality analysis. No one cares about that number. We only care about changes to a build that make it better.

Actual (random) variations in burst DPS may mean that real performance deviates from the average, but that's a limitation inherent in the math being used by everyone in this discussion.

Edit: if you are possibly trying to say that you don't like the limitations in the time averaged assumptions of the immortality or time-to-defeat model (the more general case Umbral posted and which I also use), you're doing so incredibly obscurely.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
If I can stop you here because this is where you have gone wrong. Your definition of incoming damage has changed.

Incoming damage MUST be determined from the start, else you end up where you are now.

Let's assume the incoming damage is 100.
50 of that is mitigated by an enemies base chance to hit.
With 5% defence, 5 of that is mitigated by defence. That is 5% of 100.
The amount of damage you take is 45. If it mitigated 10%, then you would be taking 40, which clearly isn't so.

Next look at incoming damage of 100.
If 5% defence = 10% mitigation, does 40% defence = 80% mitigation?
No it doesn't. 50 is mitigated simply on the basis that the enemy misses 50% of the time.
40 is mitigated by defence.
That leaves you with 10 damage.

If you go from 40% to 45% defence, you go from 10 to 5 damage. That is 5% of the original attack.

Onto your more key point:

There is one amount of DPS where they intersect. In fact, ALL points intersect, hence why I say they are interchangeable. For a demonstration of that point:



There you go. Both are perfectly interchangeable.

When you are above that DPS, you should always go for Defence. When below, you should always go for Regen.

(I am tempted to stop saying Regen and say "health recovery" so that people can consider self heals as an example, it is causing some side tracking here)
Yes if X=Y then Y=X. You're not revealing anything to use we don't understand. We're responding to you saying that "we get that... but we care about relative mitigation, not absolute mitigation." Why don't you understand us? Use your spreadsheet but look at time to defeat instead of damage mitigated.


I gotta make pain. I gotta make things right. I gotta stop what's comin'. 'Least I gotta try.

 

Posted

Really, I'm just watching this thread for Arcanaville to ride in on her celestial chariot of light, and apply a precision guided orbital kinetic kill vehicle of logic detailing precisely how the OP is wrong.

For what it's worth, OP, I wrote a guide back in Issue 3 or 4, detailing precisely why pursuing the resist caps was worthwhile for a tanker. And precise amounts of incoming DPS had no relevance to that discussion.


Comrade Smersh, KGB Special Section 8 50 Inv/Fire, Fire/Rad, BS/WP, SD/SS, AR/EM
Other 50s: Plant/Thorn, Bots/Traps, DB/SR, MA/Regen, Rad/Dark - All on Virtue.

-Don't just rebel, build a better world, comrade!

 

Posted

Now what was the summoning spell for Arcanaville?


- @DSorrow - alts on Union and Freedom mostly -
Currently playing as Castigation on Freedom

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Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either. -Einstein

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smersh View Post
Really, I'm just watching this thread for Arcanaville to ride in on her celestial chariot of light, and apply a precision guided orbital kinetic kill vehicle of logic detailing precisely how the OP is wrong.

For what it's worth, OP, I wrote a guide back in Issue 3 or 4, detailing precisely why pursuing the resist caps was worthwhile for a tanker. And precise amounts of incoming DPS had no relevance to that discussion.
I miss 90% res caps on my Scrappers

/wrists


 

Posted

I wish I had time to read this entire thread before leaving for work in two minutes, but I want to add one minor point.

Repeatedly in this thread it has been stated that defense provides exponentially increasing returns. This isn't true, because it's a misuse of the word exponential.

Defense would provide exponential returns if the formula were something like:

final tohit = k * 10^(-a*defense)

where k and a are coefficients (since this is an example it doesn't matter what their values might be). Then, if adding X defense cut average incoming damage in half, adding X more would cut damage in half again. Under the in-game system, you need 25% defense to cut incoming damage in half from 0% defense, and then 12.5% to cut it in half again, so it's not exponential. What you should be saying is that defense simply has increasing returns.

Mostly semantics, but it's something that always bugs me.


 

Posted

Specifically, defense returns are proportional to 1/(0.5-defense). Your time to defeat approaches infinity as your defense approaches 50%.

I can't think of a descriptive name for that function in the vein of "exponential".

I'm not sure when or where people started referring to it as exponential, but I agree that it's not correct.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rad_Avenger View Post
I miss 90% res caps on my Scrappers

/wrists
Perhaps with the later Incarnate Abilities one can raise the caps? I know I'd like to raise my HP cap.


Playstation 3 - XBox 360 - Wii - PSP

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Posted

Note: I skipped a few pages of dialogue, so if I'm repeating things, my apologies in advance.

There's a lot of speaking past each other on both sides going on here. At the end of the day, the OP is arguing semantics, but in real situations, he's off base. Consider:

Incoming damage is 100 dps, normalized, over the long run.

Base to hit is 50%.

Toon A has 0 def, take 50dps.

Toon B has 40% def, takes 10dps.

Both get a 5% boost to def.

A now takes 45dps. We'll call him A+ now.

B now takes 5dps. We'll call him B+ now.

So the OP is "right" in that the last 5% is the "same" as the 1st 5% boost to your defense. The "immortality line" is also shifted by the same amount--5dps. If that's all the OP is trying to say, consider him vindicated. However:

If your regen is 0 and both A & B have 1000 HPs:

A, at 50dps taken, takes 20s to die.

A+, at 45dps taken, takes 22s to die.

B, at 10dps taken, takes 100s to die

B+, at 5dps taken, takes 200s to die.

*This* is why we say that adding a 5% boost to def to get to cap doubles your survivability--and that's what actually matters in the game. 100s to 200s of survival--that's double; 100% increase. If your starting def is 0, you add a whole 10% worth of survivability. This is why most ppl who deal w/def math will tell you every point towards the cap is more important near the cap.


An Offensive Guide to Ice Melee

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shred_Monkey View Post
Yes if X=Y then Y=X. You're not revealing anything to use we don't understand. We're responding to you saying that "we get that... but we care about relative mitigation, not absolute mitigation." Why don't you understand us? Use your spreadsheet but look at time to defeat instead of damage mitigated.
I'm going to quote this because it's the most important point being made. I hope the question is actually answered.


Level 50 is a journey, not a destination.

Scrapper Issues List - Going Rogue Edition

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
But if you choose a given DPS target, as the immortality line model does, you can see which changes move the time you survive higher. That's all that matters. That's mathematically the same as choosing a duration you'll survive and seeing what makes the DPS you'll live that long against go up.

A higher immortality line always means you live longer on average in the face of any average damage for which you will not already live forever. The actual numbers do not matter. I don't know why you keep referring to the exact damage for the immortality analysis. No one cares about that number. We only care about changes to a build that make it better.
Survivability model getting it wrong:

HP: 1000
Defence: 30%
Regen: 10hp/s

Survivability model says you can live indefinitely against 50 DPS.

Now the choice: Take an extra 3% defence, or 5 hp/s.

With +3% defence, you can survive 58.82 DPS indefinitely.
With +5 hp/s, you can survive 75 DPS indefinitely.

So the survivability model says Regen is better. You claim that by selecting regen:

Quote:
A higher immortality line always means you live longer on average in the face of any average damage for which you will not already live forever
But you're wrong.

What happens if you're actually in a fight where you might be defeat? Like, say, just about most fights in the game? Surely this survival metric is how you describe?

HP: 1000
Defence: 30%
Regen: 15
DPS Faced: 400
Time to Defeat: 15.38 seconds.

vs.

HP: 1000
Defence: 33%
Regen: 10
DPS Faced: 400
Time to Defeat: 17.38 seconds.

Defence wins? So the survivability metric is wrong.

Once again, survivability metric should not be used because it flat out gives the wrong answer some times.


 

Posted

Dear OP:

I know jack about math, but it's been my experience that if you find yourself arguing with UberGuy it's best to stop, take a breath and revisit the assumptions behind the point you're advancing.


regards,
Das Goat


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Not Der Goat?


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
HP: 1000
Defence: 30%
Regen: 15
DPS Faced: 400
Time to Defeat: 15.38 seconds.

vs.

HP: 1000
Defence: 33%
Regen: 10
DPS Faced: 400
Time to Defeat: 17.38 seconds.

Defence wins? So the survivability metric is wrong.

Once again, survivability metric should not be used because it flat out gives the wrong answer some times.
Surely, it's dishonest to compare a 10% increase in defense with a 50% increase in regeneration?


Comrade Smersh, KGB Special Section 8 50 Inv/Fire, Fire/Rad, BS/WP, SD/SS, AR/EM
Other 50s: Plant/Thorn, Bots/Traps, DB/SR, MA/Regen, Rad/Dark - All on Virtue.

-Don't just rebel, build a better world, comrade!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smersh View Post
Surely, it's dishonest to compare a 10% increase in defense with a 50% increase in regeneration?
The point is that the maths of the survival model are wrong and can be demonstrated as that.

The Regeneration is better at the start, the Defence is better at the end, there is not a singular answer of which is always right.


 

Posted

It is "defenSe" not "defenCe".

I prefer Dechs Kaison's method for determining what a character can survive.

A character may be at 40% defense and have 15 hp/s regeneration. You could try to get 5% defense to double the amount of DPS you can take, on average, or you could try to get 15 hp/s regeneration to achieve the same effect. Obtaining that amount of defense is most likely possible, depending on the build. Obtaining that amount of regeneration is nearly impossible with set bonuses and pool powers.

Using Dechs Kaison's analysis and REAL builds, you can see how a defense-based character can survive against tougher enemies with much less regeneration than a purely regeneration-based character. Obviously, combining defense, resistance, and regeneration produces the best results, but no Scrapper build allows you to combine nearly-capped amounts of all three. So, we just have to pick the best of one or two forms of mitigation, and sometimes have small amounts of the other forms.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
Let's assume the incoming damage is 100.
50 of that is mitigated by an enemies base chance to hit.
With 5% defence, 5 of that is mitigated by defence. That is 5% of 100.
The amount of damage you take is 45. If it mitigated 10%, then you would be taking 40, which clearly isn't so.

Next look at incoming damage of 100.
If 5% defence = 10% mitigation, does 40% defence = 80% mitigation?
No it doesn't. 50 is mitigated simply on the basis that the enemy misses 50% of the time.
40 is mitigated by defence.
That leaves you with 10 damage.
Zero defense is not equal to 50% mitigation (by virtue of enemy ToHit being 50%).

Zero defense is zero mitigation. In other words, your defense is doing zero (i.e. nothing) to mitigate (i.e. reduce) the incoming damage. If the incoming damage is 50 at zero defense, then the incoming damage is 50, not 100.

So, to revisit your examples.

Potential damage is 100 (if every attack hits).
At 0% defense, incoming damage is 50. This is zero mitigation via defense.

At 5% defense, incoming damage is 45. This is 90% of 50. 5 damage, or 10% of the original 50 damage, has been mitigated, or reduced, by defense. Hence, 5% defense equals 10% mitigation.

At 40% defense, incoming damage is 10. This is 20% of 50. 40 damage, or 80% of the original 50 damage, has been mitigated by defense. Hence 80% mitigation.

So, if you aren't defining zero defense as 50% mitigation, defense does indeed produce twice its percentage value worth of mitigation.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
Survivability model getting it wrong
If I wasn't clear before, and looking back I can see I probably wasn't, I wasn't trying to state that the immortality analysis gives you the knowledge to pick the best combination of mitigation (defense or DR) and HP recovery to any given DPS. It simply lets you pick a maximal value you can survive forever. You are correct that how that value was arrived at from its component values will affect how it performs under different DPS loads in excess of the immortality rate.

This in no way invalidates the usefulness of the immortality line model. The central notion behind the immortality line is that, over relatively long stretches of play, such as a single kill-all mission, a player seeks conditions that meet their immortality line. If their trend through a mission is to continually decrease in remaining HP, they tend to slow down, kite foes, reduce their difficulty, or take some other action to reduce the average damage they are facing and drive their HP trend towards infinite survival. Under these assumptions the difference in being defeated in 15.38 versus 17.38 isn't especially germane. The key is that the player was going to be defeated at all and so likely took action to avoid it. The higher the character's immortality line, the more combat stress the character can manage and still survive. Assuming increased combat stress has a relationship with increased reward, a higher immortality line will allow the character will be capable of a higher reward per unit time.

You're arguing for a different analytical situation, where that model arguably breaks down. You want to analyze the situation where a player and a mob (or two players) duke it out and race to see who dies first. As you point out, there's no way we can analyze that in the general case, because we can't predict what the foe's DPS output is going to be. But that doesn't mean that the immortality analysis is wrong. It means its not meant to model that situation.

And none of this has anything to do with what you argued against in your original post. Multiple posters in this thread have addressed that with very firm math, and you have not once responded to it. You have instead wandered off into other territory (taking the rest of us - including me - with you) about with the relationship between values of defense and regen for a given DPS. That's a different topic than the one you mentioned in your OP.

(As an aside, those are not the defeat time numbers I got for reasons relating to what Chaos String mentioned. You seem to be assuming that whatever is attacking you is missing 50% of the time at base. This is a poor assumption. Mobs above your level and/or above minion rank have greater-than-unity accuracy, making their base hit probability greater than 50%. All you can say with certainty is how your defense affects their damage relative to no defense at all. However, that's not especially germane as it doesn't change the outcome in your example.)


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

The idea that someone seeks missions at which your HP doesn't move is ridiculous.

That's when the immortality line is useful: when mitigation = damage. I've already displayed that when this isn't the case, the method encounters big problems. Big enough as in: it's wrong.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by UberGuy View Post
(As an aside, those are not the defeat time numbers I got for reasons relating to what Chaos String mentioned. You seem to be assuming that whatever is attacking you is missing 50% of the time at base. This is a poor assumption. Mobs above your level and/or above minion rank have greater-than-unity accuracy, making their base hit probability greater than 50%. All you can say with certainty is how your defense affects their damage relative to no defense at all. However, that's not especially germane as it doesn't change the outcome in your example.)
Base 60% chance to hit:

5% defence mitigates 5% damage of the incoming damage.

100 - 40 - 5 = 55.

If you ignore the initial 50% miss chance and describe defence the way Chaos String does, you get it looking very ugly very quickly. Else 5% defence equals... uhh.. -5% mitigation? Or is it 5/60 = 8.333% mitigation?

It's much cleaner to express it in terms of the damage it is actually mitigating, and it doesn't matter if they have a 95% chance to hit or a 50% chance to hit, 5% still protects you from 5% damage.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
Or is it 5/60 = 8.333% mitigation?
If base ToHit were 60%, then yes. That would be correct. 5% defense would mitigate 8.33% of incoming damage. If incoming damage at zero defense is 60, then reducing that to 55 via defense would be 8.33% (5/60)mitigation via defense. There's nothing "ugly" about this. It is simply accurate, unlike ascribing a positive mitigation value to zero defense.

It's important to note, however, that nothing I can think of actually has a 60% base ToHit chance. Accuracy modifiers like inherent attack accuracy, rank and relative level still use the base 50% ToHit, modified by defense, as their multiplier. Some enemies (pets, like Malta Gun Drones) have a base 75% ToHit, but nothing I can think of actually has 60%.

So, let's look at 75% ToHit.

Potential damage is 100 (all attacks hit).

At 0% defense, incoming damage is 75. This is zero mitigation via defense.

At 5% defense, incoming damage is 70. This is 6.66% mitigation via defense.

At 40% defense, incoming damage is 35. This is 53.33% mitigation via defense.

While this is slightly more complex arithmetically than your model, it avoids the fallacy of ascribing 25% mitigation to zero defense. Your model must assign a positve mitigation value to zero defense (regardless of base ToHit). You don't come right out and say it because it's absurd. Which means your definition of "mitigation" ought to change.


 

Posted

I think if you read this thread carefully you'll find I argue consistently against expressing it in such terms and I have made this point numerous times. It is a very poor metric for comparison.

The spreadsheet in the first post will explain why you can't compare +100% survival to +5% survival because you can substitute just as easy a replacement for either. It doesn't tell you anything useful except that it's better to have more survivability.

Quick summary:

You can substitute the same amount of regen that protects you the equivalent of 0->5% defence in place of 40-45% defence. Even though 40-45% defence equals such a significant effect in survivability.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by BunnyAnomaly View Post
I think if you read this thread carefully you'll find I argue consistently against expressing it in such terms and I have made this point numerous times
I find I have read this thread altogether more carefully than is warranted.