Random Hit roll counter
By
Arcanaville,
Posted on: 2010-08-30 18:58 in ALL ACCESS Gameplay Technical Issues Bugs
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Not a problem.
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Originally Posted by Warrior7
Well, that actually explains a lot... most of the research I've done is by using the information in the hitroll counters and in the combat logs. If the player is "hit" but it doesn't register on the logs or in the hit roll tabs (because it's not supposed to), then that drastically alters my conceptions.
Just so you understand where Evil_legacy and I are coming from, this is the equivalent of you taking your car into the mechanic and saying, "it just doesn't sound right" and having the mechanic say that it's fine. Even if there was a problem with the car, there's nothing you could do to fix it or investigate it. Your choices are to drive the car and push your thoughts aside or walk. I play this game for hours every single day and trust it to provide me the entertainment I require for the price I pay each month. I just want to make sure that everything's kosher. Again, not complaining, but I want you to understand where I'm coming from. With that being said, thanks for the explanations. |
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Yeah, these rolls seems odd and I'm running out of paper since I havent figured how to record the hit roll screen. And it's lots of data, I've lost count. Few weeks dont sound like much, but when I'm playing to catch data, sometimes it takes hours of play and a few red bulls. In the end, it's like the guy that theorized that some creatures you cant see is causing illness. They threw him into the looney bin then killed him asa heritic. Years down the road, someone discovered actual basteria and he was thrown into the looney bin. Now it's common knowledge that illness can eb caused by bacteria. But hit rolls as odd as I view it, it gets the job done over all I guess. sure there is some science behind it all. This is will be my last MMORPG. Besides this game, not much out there that is as fun or entertaining.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard.  Never change, E_L! |
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In the Options menu, there is an option to log chat. Turn that on. Make sure you are displaying tohit rolls in a chat tab, and the tohit rolls should show up in the chat logs which will show up in \Program Files\City of Heroes\logs\game.|
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
Yeah, these rolls seems odd and I'm running out of paper since I havent figured how to record the hit roll screen. And it's lots of data, I've lost count. Few weeks dont sound like much, but when I'm playing to catch data, sometimes it takes hours of play and a few red bulls. In the end, it's like the guy that theorized that some creatures you cant see is causing illness. They threw him into the looney bin then killed him asa heritic. Years down the road, someone discovered actual basteria and he was thrown into the looney bin. Now it's common knowledge that illness can eb caused by bacteria. But hit rolls as odd as I view it, it gets the job done over all I guess. sure there is some science behind it all. This is will be my last MMORPG. Besides this game, not much out there that is as fun or entertaining.
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You should be able to see something like this in those chat logs:
Code:
08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB pierces Violet Rumble for 267.71 points of lethal damage! 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB MISSES! Aimed Shot power had a 50.49% chance to hit, but rolled a 54.82. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB MISSES! Fistful of Arrows power had a 50.49% chance to hit, but rolled a 76.10. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB HITS you! Aimed Shot power had a 50.49% chance to hit and rolled a 10.47. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB MISSES! Snap Shot power had a 50.49% chance to hit, but rolled a 80.60. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB MISSES! Aimed Shot power had a 50.49% chance to hit, but rolled a 57.90. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB MISSES! Fistful of Arrows power had a 50.49% chance to hit, but rolled a 55.72. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB MISSES! Snap Shot power had a 50.49% chance to hit, but rolled a 74.83. 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB blasts your with their Fistful of Arrows for 243.62 points of lethal damage! 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB pierces Violet Rumble for 267.71 points of lethal damage! 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB hits you with their Grenade for 80.31 points of smashing damage! 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB hits you with their Grenade for 160.62 points of lethal damage! 08-14-2010 00:00:00 QuickEB knocks you from your feet with their Explosive Arrow attack!
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The streak breaker is a piece of crap then. This is not spelled out in plain obvious English in an easy to find source in game, and the accuracy of the attack shouldn't matter.|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
This sometimes confuses people who don't know how the streakbreaker works. They fire a really high accuracy attack, and then a veteran attack with no accuracy, and miss both. Then they start swinging with nothing but high accuracy attacks and while they eventually hit they wonder how they could miss three or four times in a row when the streakbreaker is supposed to make it impossible to miss twice in a row with high accuracy attacks. And the answer is, the SB doesn't take about the two misses in a row with the high accuracy attacks. It cares about the four misses in a row with the one crappy accuracy attack, which allows for longer miss streaks.
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It should be simple enough to just count the number of misses, since its purpose was to prevent missing an inordinate amount of times.
I never knew how it really worked. I assumed, from what I heard about it maybe 2 years ago, that it was supposed to guarantee a hit after 3 misses at most.
That seemed simple enough and pretty good so I never data-mined the true behavior of it.
It's simple enough to code for that.
We can't even enhance veteran attacks for accuracy, and why have them if we're not going to use them because they screw us over?
This is one stupid mechanic that was supposed to help us but got so messed up it's useless.
Also, I keep reading all over the forums that npc enemies have a streak breaker effect too.
I really really hope they don't because that make defense sets utterly useless in my opinion. If they don't work as they are intended and as you expect because the npcs get a guaranteed hit then why bother with the misleading crap?
Why can't games be "simple to learn and hard to master" and simpler while being more fun?
I would love to have the UI simplicity of Halo or the ones I saw for DCUO in this game.
It would be great to be able to use a controller for all my powers instead of needing 3 or 4 bars of 10.
Edit:
I read farther into this thread.
That sucks that npcs get streak breaker. It should only affect player attacks so we have fun and don't feel so helpless in some situations. It's just frustratign when the npcs seem to get everything and us players get nerfed or screwed over because we used a veteran attack we can't slot.
Anyway, I hate missing or hitting randomly. It would be awesome if more games could go with actual aiming like fps games.
I guess we'll have to wait for that to become more common though.
Edit 2:
Sadly logging chat seems to cause a huge amount of unnecessary lag. I had it on for a while, but turned it off because of that.
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While I agree with you, IronBlade, I know that there is a difference between running simulations and actually playing the game. That's what I'm talking about here--actual game play. Simulations can only take you so far... it's the players that do "random things" that the computer has never even contemplated that changes the game. Look at how many bugs and/or cheats were discovered by players... not the computer... by people playing the game on a daily basis. Perfect examples: switching costumes while KO'd sometimes brings you back to life with full health, typing /stuck near a mob can sometimes "teleport" you away from them or through objects, and laying down an Oro portal used to generate NPC aggro... it's things like that DAILY players find--not computer simulations. Unless there's an alarm on the RNG that signals the devs when it's not functioning correctly, it will be the players who notice it first because we play the game. In order to obtain millions of results, you are definitely not using gameplay numbers--you are running computer simulations. They arent the same.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Offhand, if you're noting these results manually, you don't have enough data to justify investigation. You need to have automated capture of the data. You need many THOUSANDS of data points to even think about proving anything. Arcanaville said she routinely analyzes MILLIONS of results.
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And I have to agree with Immortalus, if streakbreaker is using the attack with the lowest accuracy in a chain of attack, the veteran powers are actually a detriment because they can't be slotted or enhanced. This is really bad news for an AT with relatively no attacks (like Masterminds and bubble defenders who only have three basic attacks and scrappers/tanks that rely upon Nemesis Staff/Blackwand to provide them with at least one ranged attack).
Lastly, I do have one issue about aiming and tohit rolls--large, static objects. I'm sorry, but if I'm in a jail cell less than two feet from the door, my power shouldn't miss. The same is true for dumpsters, trucks...etc. It's frustrating when you receive three misses in a row when you are trying to hit something that in real life is IMPOSSIBLE to miss. Inanimate objects should be given a "point blank" feature that guarantees a 100% hit ratio within melee range.
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Is the mere EXISTENCE of the streakbreaker mentioned anywhere in game? I don't recall ever seeing it. If the system is never even mentioned, why would you expect it to be "spelled out in plain English"?|
Originally Posted by T_Immortalus
The streak breaker is a piece of crap then. This is not spelled out in plain obvious English in an easy to find source in game, and the accuracy of the attack shouldn't matter.
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| We can't even enhance veteran attacks for accuracy, |
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Wrong. You are correct when you say simulations are not the same. I think they would be pretty useless. The easiest way to obtain millions of REAL results is to log combat chat while playing normally.
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Originally Posted by Warrior7
While I agree with you, IronBlade, I know that there is a difference between running simulations and actually playing the game. That's what I'm talking about here--actual game play. Simulations can only take you so far... it's the players that do "random things" that the computer has never even contemplated that changes the game. Look at how many bugs and/or cheats were discovered by players... not the computer... by people playing the game on a daily basis.
In order to obtain millions of results, you are definitely not using gameplay numbers--you are running computer simulations. |
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If that is true then either one of two things are happening: combat logs are being obtained without our knowledge (exceptionally doubtful) or people are submitting their combat logs to devs--which Arcanaville already said doesn't happen. It is IMPOSSIBLE to get millions of combat logs in a relatively (under a year) short amount of time. |
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Wrong. You are correct when you say simulations are not the same. I think they would be pretty useless. The easiest way to obtain millions of REAL results is to log combat chat while playing normally.
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World of Warcraft has the largest amount of subscribers for any MMORPG out there--in 2010 they were estimated at had 11.9 million according to PC Magazine. As of September 2008, City of Heroes had around 124,939 subscribers in the US & Europe, according to financial reports released by NCsoft in November 2008. Let's say that CoH quandrupled than number in two years and rounded it out to 500,000 subscribers. Let's guess that out of that number 50,000 accounts have dead players--subscription holds but the toons havent been played in months. Do you know how many combat logs would have to be retrieved in order to get MILLIONS of combat rolls? With a subscriber rate of half a million, just receiving three million combat rolls would be challenging.
It's simulations... unless Arcanaville says otherwise. It would be too much work to pull all of that info.
While this is technically true, you *CAN* improve the odds of hitting with a veteran attack. You do it by changing YOUR overall odds to hit. This can be accomplished with set bonuses, which provide global accuracy (i.e. affecting all of your powers) or by powers like Tactics, Focused Accuracy, Targeting Drone, etc. Indirectly, you can also accomplish the same end result by REDUCING the defense of the enemy by debuffing them.[/QUOTE]
That is true excuse.
Your statement is true, but an excuse at the same time. Sure, anyone in the game can get Tactics... a defender/controller/corruptor/mastermind cannot get focused accuracy, targeting drone, or any other power (other than Aim) to improve accuracy). Likewise, the only powers available to them that (primarily) reduce defense is Assault Rifle, storm, and radiation. Your statement is true but it's entirely depended on the AT being used. Khelds cant even use tactics in a transformed state... but then again, they can't use the vet powers either.
A VETERAN player wouldn't purchase complete IO sets for his character until that toon has ascended into at the 40 plus levels--buying them below that would just be stupid. Futhermore, those sets cost a ton of influence, which most toons dont acquire until lvl 50.
Again, you are entirely correct, but sheesh!
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Low level players, who need streak breaker more than anyone, also have almost no option to deal with it.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
While this is technically true, you *CAN* improve the odds of hitting with a veteran attack. You do it by changing YOUR overall odds to hit. This can be accomplished with set bonuses, which provide global accuracy (i.e. affecting all of your powers) or by powers like Tactics, Focused Accuracy, Targeting Drone, etc. Indirectly, you can also accomplish the same end result by REDUCING the defense of the enemy by debuffing them.
That is true excuse. Your statement is true, but an excuse at the same time. Sure, anyone in the game can get Tactics... a defender/controller/corruptor/mastermind cannot get focused accuracy, targeting drone, or any other power (other than Aim) to improve accuracy). Likewise, the only powers available to them that (primarily) reduce defense is Assault Rifle, storm, and radiation. Your statement is true but it's entirely depended on the AT being used. Khelds cant even use tactics in a transformed state... but then again, they can't use the vet powers either. A VETERAN player wouldn't purchase complete IO sets for his character until that toon has ascended into at the 40 plus levels--buying them below that would just be stupid. Futhermore, those sets cost a ton of influence, which most toons dont acquire until lvl 50. Again, you are entirely correct, but sheesh! |
You know what?
Accuracy is finite in a power. The only difference is the value attached tot he enhancements available to you and the amount of powers you can choose.
Why do accuracy enhancements start out so worthless like every other enhancement?
When you need accuracy so badly at the lower levels you can't even enhance for it, so they had to add an overall buff to everybody that decreases with level until accuracy enhancers level up to where they should be.
Why don't they just make accuracy enhancements apply a higher value early in the game?
Players wouldn't just be automatically given an accuracy buff. They would still be encouraged to learn about slotting and do so to improve their accuracy.
Maybe accuracy enhancers could start at 20% buff instead of 8% on a TO.
8% is pitiful and practically useless.You need to use 3 of them to get anywhere, but then you have the problem of no endurance reduction which you need just as much and is just as pitiful at early levels.
No wonder everyone wants Stamina earlier.
Accuracy and endurance are major issues early on because they're absolutely essential yet the enhancements are almost worthless.
Why don't they increase the values all of those give early on without increasing the values they give at 50?
That would keep the maximum balanced, especially with ED still here, while improving the minimum to useful levels.
Can anybody tell me why that would be a bad idea?
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I wasn't saying combat LOGS, I was saying combat ROLLS.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
If that is true then either one of two things are happening: combat logs are being obtained without our knowledge (exceptionally doubtful) or people are submitting their combat logs to devs--which Arcanaville already said doesn't happen. It is IMPOSSIBLE to get millions of combat logs in a relatively (under a year) short amount of time.
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| Do you know how many combat logs would have to be retrieved in order to get MILLIONS of combat rolls? With a subscriber rate of half a million, just receiving three million combat rolls would be challenging. |
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| It's simulations... unless Arcanaville says otherwise. It would be too much work to pull all of that info. |
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Sorry for the misunderstanding... your original post said, "Log combat chat" which would seem to imply combat logs. You said nothing about combat rolls.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
I wasn't saying combat LOGS, I was saying combat ROLLS.
It's not simulations. We had a thread in the market section that was analyzing THOUSANDS of MERIT REWARD ROLLS. Each of those cost someone 20 reward merits. If we can get thousands of merit rolls, getting millions of combat rolls is a walk in the park. |
Again, when I hear Arcanaville say that it's not simulations, I'll believe... unless of course, you are a dev.
PS: what was the length of time for receiving the thousands of merit rolls? There's a huge difference between thousands and millions.
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Wow, get over it! Can you explain how you would even do 'simulated' rolls that actually test the game random number generator? Only the devs could do simulations of this. The only way a player can check it is by ACTUAL PLAY.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
Again, when I hear Arcanaville say that it's not simulations, I'll believe... unless of course, you are a dev.
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Of course, you can believe whatever you want. I understand that some people still believe the Earth is flat.
BTW...
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| Sorry for the misunderstanding... your original post said, "Log combat chat" which would seem to imply combat logs. You said nothing about combat rolls. |
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Originally Posted by Deus_Otiosus
This entire post should receive some kind of award for being both hysterical and fantastic.
Well done. |
So....
Anybody have an opinion about them raising the benefit accruacy and endurance reduction enhancers provide early on?
It would do away with the need for a degrading accuracy buff as you level and ease the problem of not having stamina while encouraging new players to learn more about enhancements and use them.
It would also encourage players to diversify their slotting early on and use those damage or other enhancers they normally don't instead of just loading up on as much accuracy and endurance reduction as possible.
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Its combat logs, not simulations. If it were a simulation that I wrote, it couldn't possibly be worth anything in terms of checking the actual game server's random number generators.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
Sorry for the misunderstanding... your original post said, "Log combat chat" which would seem to imply combat logs. You said nothing about combat rolls.
Again, when I hear Arcanaville say that it's not simulations, I'll believe... unless of course, you are a dev. PS: what was the length of time for receiving the thousands of merit rolls? There's a huge difference between thousands and millions. |
During I18 beta I constructed an AE mission designed to test the limits of Fury generation. It occured to me that I could use this same mission to generate millions of tohit rolls, because I was generating several attacks per second in the combat logs; over half a million tohit rolls in a twenty four hour period.
To supplement that, I also analyzed all of my chat logs going back a couple years which are all from normal play. The normal play logs give me hundreds of thousands of tohit rolls which allow me to do some basic statistical analysis, and the AE mass combat rolls allow me to do much higher resolution analysis of the random generator itself over a short period of time.
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As far as I can see, most of the nitty-gritty of combat mechanics seems to be not well documented in actual in-game documentation or printed manuals for most MMOs, and in particular mechanics that are added to the game after launch tend to be discussed but not always well documented officially.|
Originally Posted by T_Immortalus
The streak breaker is a piece of crap then. This is not spelled out in plain obvious English in an easy to find source in game, and the accuracy of the attack shouldn't matter.
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And the accuracy of the attacks matter to prevent overskewing of the results. You want miss streaks to be broken quickly when the chance tohit is high because the expectation is for shorter miss streaks when net tohit is high. But you can't break similarly short miss streaks when net tohit is low because that would then increase the number of hits to unacceptably high levels for those cases.
Long ago there were a couple of independent calculations done on the streakbreaker to determine its overall impact on average tohit for NPCs. These calculations were more or less in agreement: they differed in certain assumptions about how long the average continuous attack streak was likely to be, which affects the streakbreaker's ability to see and thus truncate miss streaks. I believe the worst case scenario was somewhere around 30% net tohit which could, in some cases, experience something like 25% more hits in very long duration circumstances. As a practical matter, though, because few things actually live long enough to generate such long miss streaks, the actual increase in incoming hits was much lower than that. An AV could live long enough to trigger the streakbreaker often enough to approach the worst case scenario, but then again I don't think many players attempt to tank AVs with only 30% defense and no other meaningful protection.
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First off, I know what the thread title is because I made the thread. Secondly, you'll have to forgive me if I dont trust YOUR opinion... especially considering that you are not a dev. I am open-minded enough to entertain all possibilities and that's why I said that I'll believe it when Arcanaville says it. NOT YOU.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Wow, get over it! Can you explain how you would even do 'simulated' rolls that actually test the game random number generator? Only the devs could do simulations of this. The only way a player can check it is by ACTUAL PLAY.
Of course, you can believe whatever you want. I understand that some people still believe the Earth is flat. BTW... The THREAD TITLE is "Random Hit roll counter". The entire thread is about hit rolls. |
Secondly, YOU'RE the one that messed up and said "log combat chat" instead of combat rolls. Point the finger at yourself.
Lastly, you're not a dev--I have no reason to believe anything you say. I created this thread to get the devs opinions, not yours.
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Very nice. I can see how AE would be a greater benefit in this situation because of the ability to create larger than normal mobs to give you faster results than normal play. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Its combat logs, not simulations. If it were a simulation that I wrote, it couldn't possibly be worth anything in terms of checking the actual game server's random number generators.
During I18 beta I constructed an AE mission designed to test the limits of Fury generation. It occured to me that I could use this same mission to generate millions of tohit rolls, because I was generating several attacks per second in the combat logs; over half a million tohit rolls in a twenty four hour period. To supplement that, I also analyzed all of my chat logs going back a couple years which are all from normal play. The normal play logs give me hundreds of thousands of tohit rolls which allow me to do some basic statistical analysis, and the AE mass combat rolls allow me to do much higher resolution analysis of the random generator itself over a short period of time. |
Thanks again, Arcanaville, you've answered all of my questions. I'm officially done with my part of this thread.
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Well, yay. Now she has posted and it seems my observations were accurate.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
First off, I know what the thread title is because I made the thread. Secondly, you'll have to forgive me if I dont trust YOUR opinion... especially considering that you are not a dev. I am open-minded enough to entertain all possibilities and that's why I said that I'll believe it when Arcanaville says it. NOT YOU.
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| Secondly, YOU'RE the one that messed up and said "log combat chat" instead of combat rolls. Point the finger at yourself. |
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| Lastly, you're not a dev--I have no reason to believe anything you say. I created this thread to get the devs opinions, not yours. |
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Just keep in mind, I'm not an employee of Paragon Studios. I'm just the most comprehensive tester of tohit willing to answer questions. The devs don't like touching this subject with a ten foot pole because it tends to draw them into other discussions about the whys of game implementation which they often cannot answer. I'm slightly less restricted and much more credibly deniable than, say, Television or pohsyb, and unlike them I can't be drawn into a debate about source code (because I have no direct access to source code).|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
First off, I know what the thread title is because I made the thread. Secondly, you'll have to forgive me if I dont trust YOUR opinion... especially considering that you are not a dev. I am open-minded enough to entertain all possibilities and that's why I said that I'll believe it when Arcanaville says it. NOT YOU.
Secondly, YOU'RE the one that messed up and said "log combat chat" instead of combat rolls. Point the finger at yourself. Lastly, you're not a dev--I have no reason to believe anything you say. I created this thread to get the devs opinions, not yours. |
But just to put my usual disclaimer, its against the rules to impersonate a dev, and also against the rules for devs to post anonymously. Not a dev.
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I do not understand the purpose for this. Why in all hells would the Streakbreaker care what the lowest tohit within the miss steak is. It seems to me that it just makes the Streakbreaker more complicated, thus more unreliable. It also removes the Streakbreaker as a tool for the player. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
Important to realize that the streakbreaker honors the *lowest* tohit within your current miss streak.
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Example: Normal running at 95%, get debuffed down to 55% by those pain in the butt mid-teen+ CoT, and miss. Even if you were to eat a couple of yellows, or have powers that run at 75% after the debuff, you would now be locked into the 50 - 59.99 Streakbreaker until you finally hit.
Also once you realize how this system works it makes the lower Acc powers more questionable to use.
I see no benefit to a player at all with this, in fact this seems to me to be a pure lets **** the player, mechanic.
Because the Steakbreaker isn't suppose to alter the distribution of consecutive misses by a lot. In the case of 75%, it eliminates the 4 out of 4 misses which has only 0.39% of occurring.
Lets take your example. First miss is 55%, the rest at 75%.
55% puts the SB at 4 misses, 75% puts it at 3. Doesn't sound like you lost anything by missing with the 55% attack since even if your next 10 attacks are at 75%, you are still guarantee to hit with the 4th 75% attack.
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Just to give my take on this, first of all the fact that the streakbreaker follows lowest tohit chance in the miss streak *doesn't* benefit the player. Its not supposed to. The streakbreaker *itself* benefits the player, at least when on offense (it hurts a bit when on defense). The streakbreaker adds hits when the random number generator otherwise says you miss. It always helps the attacker. The fact that it doesn't help as much as you want it to is a separate issue.|
Originally Posted by Jeuraud
I do not understand the purpose for this. Why in all hells would the Streakbreaker care what the lowest tohit within the miss steak is. It seems to me that it just makes the Streakbreaker more complicated, thus more unreliable. It also removes the Streakbreaker as a tool for the player.
Example: Normal running at 95%, get debuffed down to 55% by those pain in the butt mid-teen+ CoT, and miss. Even if you were to eat a couple of yellows, or have powers that run at 75% after the debuff, you would now be locked into the 50 - 59.99 Streakbreaker until you finally hit. Also once you realize how this system works it makes the lower Acc powers more questionable to use. I see no benefit to a player at all with this, in fact this seems to me to be a pure lets **** the player, mechanic. |
And why it doesn't help you as much as you seem to want to is that its only intended to "nudge" the chance tohit without skewing it all over the place. To amplify what Father Xmas posted, I dug up some quickie calculations I did on the streakbreaker from way back when it was first discussed:
Code:
SB1 SB2 M MS1 MS2 H1 H2 HS1 HS2 SP1 SP2 0.9 1 1 0.0100 0.0000 9000 10000 50.00 0.00 0.9050 1.0000 0.8 0.9 2 0.0080 0.0010 8000 9000 26.67 3.33 0.8027 0.9003 0.6 0.8 3 0.0256 0.0016 6000 8000 64.00 4.00 0.6064 0.8004 0.4 0.6 4 0.0778 0.0102 4000 6000 155.52 20.48 0.4156 0.6020 0.3 0.4 6 0.0824 0.0280 3000 4000 117.65 39.99 0.3118 0.4040 0.2 0.3 8 0.1342 0.0404 2000 3000 149.13 44.84 0.2149 0.3045 0 0.2 100 1.0000 0.0000 0 2000 99.01 0.00 0.0099 0.2000
These are just estimates. The "productivity" depends on how many actual swings you generate and the changing circumstances of those swings, and there is an independence error implicit in these calculations which I think changes things a little bit. But they are useful rules of thumb. The actual calculations for determining precisely what the streakbreaker does is slightly more complex. So much so, you're probably better off monte carlo-ing the whole thing.
As to the issue of complaining its too complicated, to be honest I find that to be a bit of a quixotic complaint. The *simple* thing to do is to not have a streakbreaker at all and let the dice fall where they may. But once players start claiming that "random" is "unfairly streaky" they are really asking for a complicated thing, whether they know it or not, whether they admit it or not, whether they understand it or not. The devs tried to put in a system where your overall chance to hit was still very close to the calculated values, but where long streaks of misses magically vanished. Satisfying both requirements simultaneously cannot be done with a simple system.
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As far as I know, nothing "modifies" the tohit roll. its the chance to hit that is modified. There's only one exception to that rule, and its not an exception that you'll likely see direct evidence of, and won't show itself in the combat spam as a modified tohit roll (that exception is tohit rolls used in special formulas within Requires or Magnitude clauses: people familiar with the mechanics I'm talking about will know what I'm referring to).
Just so you understand where Evil_legacy and I are coming from, this is the equivalent of you taking your car into the mechanic and saying, "it just doesn't sound right" and having the mechanic say that it's fine. Even if there was a problem with the car, there's nothing you could do to fix it or investigate it. Your choices are to drive the car and push your thoughts aside or walk. I play this game for hours every single day and trust it to provide me the entertainment I require for the price I pay each month. I just want to make sure that everything's kosher. Again, not complaining, but I want you to understand where I'm coming from.
With that being said, thanks for the explanations.