Random Hit roll counter
By
Arcanaville,
Posted on: 2010-08-30 18:58 in ALL ACCESS Gameplay Technical Issues Bugs
Quote:
I've checked the random number generator four times in the last six years. The most recent test for randomness was a test I completed the first phase of a few weeks ago after accumulating about 5 million random rolls (I'm eventually going to do a 100 million random roll analysis, once I have enough random rolls).|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
Dont know if anyone noticed or not, but the random hit roll counter is at least 10% standard calculations. My blaster has a 95% chance of hitting a possessed scientist minion of same rank. I battled this person twenty times and took the hit/miss calculations directly from the hit roll tab and dumped them into an Excel spreadsheet. The 95% actually turned into 82%!
What's worse is the defense. I've soft-capped the defense for the exact same minion and ran the numbers again. According to the hit roll tab, the scientist had a 6.51% chance of hitting me. After one hundred attempts, the enemy struck me twelve times--far more than a 6.51% chance! Now I know what you are thinking... different attacks have different accuracy bonuses (a Warhulk's flamethrower has a smaller percentage to hit than it's chain-gun). In my calculations, I filtered out the other attacks and only used the possessed scientist's base attack (Gale in this case). The "random" hit rolls are not generating numbers at random--this can easily be proven by looking at the tab when using hibernate. The "random" numbers are all programmed to miss when using that power. Unless the NPC's have streakbreaker, there's no way the numbers could be accurate. Check for yourselves. |
So far, I have discovered no evidence of non-random behavior. If you are logging chat and have all of the tohit rolls logged, and are willing to submit your findings to independent analysis, PM me and I will arrange to have your logs' random rolls analyzed.
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I have no hard data to support it, but something seems off to me as well. When playing my new KM scrapper, I feel like I'm missing more than I should. Checking the to hit numbers in the combat tab I see my to-hit values are generally in the mid 80s. I don't seem to be hitting that often, and that number seems pretty high since I'm only level 10 and don't have any enhancements slotted. Again, I have no data to back this up with, only my perception.
Perception is the worst indicator to go by. People tend to focus on the bad things that happen like missing 7 out of 12 times and not focus on the good things that happen like hitting 30 times in a row. Over time the RNG is random. Although it may seem tilted one way or another even over a period of hundreds of rolls, when you get into hundreds of thousands and millions of rolls, it evens out.
Do the research Arcanaville has done and if you still show that the RNG is skewed, then there may be an issue. Just need a few more million to hit rolls to keep track of and you are there.
Quote:
No, what I'm thinking is that 100 rolls is a ridiculously small sample. You absolutely can not draw statistical conclusions from a sample size of 100.
|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
According to the hit roll tab, the scientist had a 6.51% chance of hitting me. After one hundred attempts, the enemy struck me twelve times--far more than a 6.51% chance!
Now I know what you are thinking... |
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Quote:
Actually, what I'm thinking now is that it occurs to me Gale has 0.9 accuracy, even for critters. So I'm trying to figure out how a soft-capped player could end up with 6.51% tohit vs Gale. If you're genuinely defense soft-capped, 6.51% net tohit implies 1.3 accuracy from the attacker. That's what you'd get if an even level Boss was attacking you with standard attacks. I'm trying to think of a situation where you'd see 6.51% net tohit from gale being used by an minion or LT, and coming up empty.|
Originally Posted by Ironblade
No, what I'm thinking is that 100 rolls is a ridiculously small sample. You absolutely can not draw statistical conclusions from a sample size of 100.
|
Just to be certain, I tried this myself just now:
Quote:
|
You activated the Elude power. HIT Violet Rumble! Your Elude power is autohit. Violet Rumble HITS you! Elude power was autohit. You are now extremely Elusive, and almost impossible to hit. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Gale power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 92.87. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Charged Brawl power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 54.12. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Lightning Bolt power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 57.67. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Gale power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 15.74. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Charged Brawl power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 54.38. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Lightning Bolt power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 70.32. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Gale power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 72.13. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Charged Brawl power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 89.74. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Lightning Bolt power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 42.60. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Gale power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 46.52. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Charged Brawl power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 11.38. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Lightning Bolt power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 76.66. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Gale power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 70.19. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Charged Brawl power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 38.67. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Lightning Bolt power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 25.96. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Gale power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 7.89. Possessed Scientist MISSES! Charged Brawl power had a 5.00%% chance to hit, but rolled a 15.78. |
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Higher level mobs perhaps? Not sure on the numbers on that. Or maybe rounding up to soft cap and was actually at 43.49%?
Quote:
It would have to be all the way up to 42.77%, because as I mentioned Gale has 0.9 accuracy. Gale's intrinsic accuracy pulls you down closer to the 5% floor as a result: you would have to have 7.23% tohit after defense for Gale's 0.9 accuracy to pull you down to 6.51%|
Originally Posted by HelinCarnate
Higher level mobs perhaps? Not sure on the numbers on that. Or maybe rounding up to soft cap and was actually at 43.49%?
|
Or I suppose it could have been a +1 minion, and you'd then need 43.42% defense (net accuracy from a +1 minion with gale would be 0.9 * 1.1 = 0.99 accuracy).
Also, just for giggles, this is the probability of getting hit N number of times out of 100 swings if your random chance to be hit is 6.51%:
Code:
hits chance 0 0.12% 1 0.83% 2 2.86% 3 6.51% 4 11.00% 5 14.70% 6 16.21% 7 15.15% 8 12.27% 9 8.73% 10 5.53% 11 3.15% 12 1.63% 13 0.77% 14 0.33% 15 0.13% 16 0.05% 17 0.02% 18 0.01%
A test for randomness would look more like this:
If the random rolls are interpreted to be 20-sided die, number of occurances of each face:
[198539, 198910, 198751, 197766, 199010, 197988, 199547, 198867, 199220, 199015, 198970, 198529, 199134, 198124, 197778, 198720, 198576, 199444, 198715, 198950, 250]
(the 250 is due to the rare occurances of the random roll 100.00)
20-bin partition, 2-tuple correlation analysis (number of times each number follows each number in two consecutive random rolls):
Code:
[9933, 9843, 9793, 9961, 10115, 9901, 10028, 9997, 9891, 9847, 9792, 9989, 10017, 9977, 9728, 9918, 10010, 9887, 9928, 9976, 9] [9924, 10065, 9923, 9835, 10105, 9678, 10104, 10079, 10017, 10132, 9867, 9978, 9809, 9779, 9818, 9938, 9996, 10171, 9928, 9754, 10] [9937, 9882, 9973, 9908, 9862, 9762, 10047, 9961, 9825, 9858, 9934, 9760, 10115, 9977, 9788, 9998, 9915, 10048, 10157, 10033, 11] [10099, 9904, 9704, 9824, 9622, 9905, 9897, 9952, 10057, 9870, 10025, 9935, 9659, 10067, 9846, 9934, 9735, 9964, 9853, 9900, 14] [10188, 9975, 9893, 9811, 10131, 9807, 9946, 9999, 10047, 9947, 10063, 9966, 9865, 9782, 9798, 9997, 10048, 9863, 9931, 9937, 16] [9762, 9840, 9973, 9905, 9911, 9878, 9959, 9846, 9969, 9938, 9957, 9860, 9906, 9950, 9908, 9944, 9846, 9862, 9929, 9824, 21] [9851, 9922, 9957, 10046, 10071, 10019, 10079, 9975, 9942, 9936, 10041, 9998, 9961, 9886, 10052, 9776, 9827, 10128, 9951, 10117, 12] [10057, 9837, 10065, 9906, 9849, 9872, 10029, 10013, 9760, 9832, 9933, 10011, 9928, 9864, 10059, 9929, 9923, 9989, 9982, 10019, 10] [9830, 9940, 10078, 9874, 10046, 9877, 9988, 9928, 10134, 9960, 9988, 9811, 10127, 9910, 9885, 9892, 10058, 9894, 9909, 10080, 11] [9721, 9881, 9912, 9910, 9890, 9878, 10153, 9910, 9875, 10080, 10053, 9870, 10054, 10020, 9979, 9992, 9957, 10044, 9811, 10014, 11] [9986, 9914, 10004, 9943, 10102, 9875, 9863, 10072, 9951, 9995, 9856, 9932, 9936, 9832, 10050, 10095, 9949, 9994, 9820, 9788, 12] [9996, 9843, 10007, 9946, 9933, 10003, 9946, 9920, 10019, 10026, 9958, 9801, 9741, 9909, 9830, 9916, 9844, 10043, 9949, 9887, 12] [9966, 10032, 10077, 9831, 10032, 9990, 9938, 10000, 9947, 9972, 9922, 9851, 10029, 9945, 9793, 9834, 9915, 10030, 10045, 9974, 11] [9825, 10016, 9895, 9881, 9785, 9849, 9987, 9642, 10063, 10020, 10014, 9867, 9751, 9790, 9868, 9959, 9968, 10048, 9896, 9991, 9] [9847, 10014, 9908, 9627, 9819, 9828, 9886, 9923, 9856, 9925, 9672, 10045, 10088, 9859, 9960, 9865, 9919, 9904, 9976, 9847, 10] [9814, 10061, 9939, 10013, 9858, 10027, 9890, 9821, 10091, 10028, 9795, 10089, 9961, 9736, 9972, 9916, 9862, 9884, 9973, 9978, 12] [9924, 9954, 10007, 9913, 10027, 9968, 9934, 9846, 9880, 9856, 10053, 9923, 9991, 9909, 9912, 9793, 9855, 9977, 9749, 10092, 13] [9921, 9994, 9826, 9880, 9912, 9937, 10073, 9916, 9985, 10046, 10095, 9960, 10154, 10055, 9798, 10021, 10083, 9910, 10041, 9824, 13] [10090, 9981, 9933, 9767, 10014, 9855, 9877, 9916, 9904, 9983, 9845, 9898, 9984, 9923, 9880, 9999, 9950, 9874, 9972, 10054, 16] [9862, 10003, 9871, 9971, 9916, 10062, 9910, 10134, 9986, 9753, 10093, 9976, 10044, 9950, 9841, 9994, 9900, 9917, 9903, 9847, 17]
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488 379 355 381 483 338 377 484 377 344 392 458 340 346 481 335 356 387 485 407 356 381 478 370 373 490 355 376 342 481 358 372 344 511 399 356 467 336 370 387 515 358 351 440 353 331 367 472 374 364 354 519 350 373 469 361 350 336 471 355 346 466 361 352 365 472 351 373 363 457 377 377 467 339 374 389 483 353 313 366 488 378 369 452 373 382 354 465 379 348 471 353 352 340 492 337 359 338 520 354 384 486 342 347 347 479 381 341 469 340 366 369 474 390 394 362 465 350 387 528 376 379 394 446 339 341 488 354 354 389 458 366 346 361 439 367 371 464 392 346 369 491 373 348 362 487 399 363 462 335 373 369 487 412 389 479 338 329 384 492 345 341 343 473 363 345 465 335 372 385 485 350 373 500 376 346 355 509 384 352 373 493 343 375 466 368 380 375 559 353 379 354 502 371 401 440 360 361 371 507 372 390 461 365 342 382 504 384 370 371 488 353 368 467 357 382 366 486 376 375 501 362 373 360 493 364 333 341 500 349 352 490 326 415 347 488 371 369 365 522 392 362 478 355 378 358 478 391 372 490 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382 511 347 397 337 537 358 354 483 368 385 343 488 393 374 355 511 383 367 447 366 343 365 470 359 370 515 369 375 330 501 385 354 380 451 348 359 500 357 338 389 472 374 349 507 359 336 347 480 342 419 388 499 352 362 500 353 364 342 473 346 368 373 470 378 364 493 409 394 374 467 379 361 498 363 379 354 467 375 384 357 482 348 350 469 373 360 339 495 386 357 457 379 363 359 478 361 370 365 473 343 397 516 378 393 392 489 387 375 351 504 397 365 449 342 387 322 443 352 374 508 372 414 358 491 343 345 376 490 370 364 486 354 377 355 492 325 379 509 340 405 370 445 350 375 375 519 381 397 501 361 365 348 485 362 374 481 335 358 370 456 342 367 371 474 352 370 481 357 391 316 480 361 353 376 502 335 370 524 364 364 353 502 372 394 488 376 357 363 477 358 351 362 461 395 380 482 375 378 358 486 344 373 480 335 350 402 507 368 376 382 471 368 389 462 370 363 388 518 344 386 345 502 378 355 512 396 361 405 504 380 378 460 362 391 361 494 333 396 363 499 340 358 506 408 358 389 479 382 339 481 378 355 366 444 374 366 340 465 371 355 490 366 382 358 473 348 360 347 481 358 367 476 341 360 359 493 348 362 462 347 378 372 467 355 404 362 508 372 362 487 363 376 329 525 335 322 477 367 384 323 463 364 372 338 491 377 388 482 348 376 352 499 345 385 367 485 360 358 452 349 331 319 502 380 356 492 349 344 396 489 337 353 313 477 361 368 475 385 364 370 504 380 354 486 360 367 367 429 354 383 328 507 370 359 490 373 364 377 509 377 353 534 381 374 376 474 382 354 378 468 381 335 473 355 382 365 470 356 361 425 499 313 349 511 386 350 347 494 362 379 471 359 358 369 437 384 357 389 515 377 352 465 357 347 370 440 379 399 506 364 380 349 463 382 358 343 466 391 364 472 368 340 379 477 394 381 374 467 373 374 476 367 401 379 473 389 330 511 342 369 341 453 354 354 355 500 383 356 541 359 368 336 473 360 386 493 380 342 382 512 382 373 382 516 358 360 491 375 360 383 473 373 377 386 490 373 365 459 377 338 377 459 362 400 489 350 335 370 477 350 356 384 491 397 364 492 349 378 326 507 376 369 490 372 337 378 459 374 400 359 462 352 372 484 360 353 378 524 400 338 351 472 344 356 473 364 342 390 487 367 371 468 332 375 363 478 360 382 347 471 360 348 500 369 339 360 498 369 366 475 360 378 376 491 365 398 392 483 376 372 457 355 364 371 504 347 380 495 343 349 344 511 384 351 361 520 379 371 504 357 361 379 492 341 351 378 449 319 362 491 364 329 335 495 373 346 506 371 369 344 478 335 368 338 480 363 367 496 361 373 345 503 347 376 463 388 367 391 424 368 368 352 488 361 376 454 331 407 337 492 350 343 357 505 363 389 486 360 349 369 476 374 385 447 369 364 356 456 367 385 384 449 345 379 515 351 377 379 504 341 372 504 336 372 345 487 378 390 339 503 363 360 493 361 365 392 499 335 351 364 501 347 381 474 346 354 366 460 361 377 491 326 360 392 475 356 358 353 481 376 360 456 382 319 344 454 370 386 494 373 373 332 527 386 354 354 500 375 328 497 385 377 359 458 368 360 388 512 372 373 491 354 369 348 477 359 366 474 373 371 356 455 371 366 357 492 331 375 477 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321 359 463 354 398 467 364 344 353 515 381 360 467 368 371 328 482 355 363 350 477 369 346 466 354 348 369 489 348 347 488 330 357 379 501 348 368 351 507 379 352 473 386 362 376 479 354 357 403 521 393 350 508 374 360 375 471 356 378 484 343 354 378 481 396 384 345 478 351 359 455 368 349 334 525 357 322 490 366 358 364 472 354 358 390 478 343 360 519 369 303 398 492 378 369 363 526 379 347 473 354 333 359 500 385 338 493 357 327 366 481 360 395 349 446 356 348 492 389 361 359 467 352 362 483 333 324 358 481 351 332 361 464 344 376 482 332 327 323 525 382 424 461 375 384 359 508 356 323 364 469 350 336 531 351 373 384 496 364 379 382 497 375 344 486 349 381 426 490 366 364 470 369 358 366 480 350 341 399 533 375 376 478 342 354 349 518 367 332 471 356 349 372 477 354 353 363 471 399 352 461 373 349 382 456 365 372 341 493 376 371 482 364 352 389 459 340 385 494 382 385 396 467 391 379 333 482 374 388 494 379 368 374 521 367 387 488 374 344 379 504 346 356 361 511 370 383 500 375 359 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488 380 378 395 495 353 322 461 363 358 355 467 349 355 385 481 327 344 496 345 347 362 470 359 386 328 491 336 336 468 371 394 377 464 357 391 476 378 367 336 458 377 381 348 495 345 358 525 377 375 391 494 358 374 485 384 348 354 525 354 364 350 508 359 389 443 365 344 357 469 387 383 355 474 368 356 470 355 351 341 493 372 372 479 396 359 367 490 371 338 367 487 361 352 475 341 370 358 481 390 355 437 350 367 334 479 370 379 382 508 354 360 467 361 421 367 520 362 359 367 502 340 387 483 352 340 363 499 340 380 463 379 328 351 470 352 382 373 456 347 331 473 351 339 341 501 371 360 470 363 360 366 490 356 343 366 482 386 389 494 363 369 385 502 313 372 395 508 369 356 428 385 344 357 514 368 380 473 352 347 362 470 353 390 374 476 366 363 484 388 364 358 520 340 365 480 363 383 343 509 352 342 323 472 347 391 494 341 363 336 483 378 354 353 458 332 392 459 354 367 343 436 392 383 494 372 367 362 497 380 364 375 517 355 357 489 340 361 359 471 352 387 480 347 369 384 449 367 345 390 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370 340 345 490 376 367 505 358 334 378 463 375 319 511 367 368 405 483 383 377 364 512 361 375 526 355 368 344 494 353 368 367 502 380 382 483 350 366 355 484 343 380 485 376 365 365 499 323 381 374 502 352 317 461 368 366 367 495 330 385 482 370 377 381 494 356 378 368 461 352 373 497 374 388 379 483 358 356 378 485 425 345 477 320 388 380 483 332 352 510 359 397 415 513 335 360 364 520 366 367 483 388 388 358 478 364 331 453 365 349 401 516 354 348 346 453 386 337 490 349 384 401 476 385 385 511 353 344 347 481 353 358 361 473 380 350 465 367 371 378 502 371 380 341 473 399 364 494 355 358 351 496 393 361 465 398 393 348 481 368 349 341 462 417 358 430 372 359 367 489 376 385 485 379 377 362 458 370 409 369 461 356 379 472 373 391 358 508 400 374 409 494 332 363 455 355 394 388 456 344 369 504 380 380 361 474 342 398 370 444 358 391 485 355 377 344 501 363 368 445 337 358 382 472 345 343 388 458 348 379 509 331 371 365 494 381 366 365 462 364 355 461 357 329 357 477 361 391 474 361 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371 478 365 386 375 495 344 344 365 503 412 350 464 352 375 384 476 369 361 470 375 340 379 477 356 354 383 497 333 370 500 362 348 351 490 377 387 352 491 341 345 483 403 342 385 511 369 353 485 352 366 401 529 376 355 369 465 386 361 472 351 341 353 489 371 321 456 355 371 340 458 366 346 372 470 350 354 495 388 364 354 498 376 363 492 364 372 338 510 371 392 328 485 358 342 499 393 354 369 521 356 388 385 460 335 368 496 372 378 334 470 360 389 503 372 321 374 467 366 397 351 489 354 377 457 359 407 366 503 384 375 497 350 372 342 470 351 350 365 513 375 362 483 343 353 346 520 367 403 368 449 346 361 506 372 356 382 493 382 360 487 397 375 367 492 366 345 374 511 366 375 459 405 389 357 445 387 331 511 362 358 389 517 333 387 367 477 365 382 524 388 377 401 466 362 380 353 460 366 352 524 379 328 383 488 373 356 504 374 361 372 500 346 353 335 478 392 385 475 378 377 362 503 395 356 456 347 380 355 492 343 389 349 519 378 389 472 356 368 395 485 382 346 519 363 348 350 456 385 383 355 495 371 366 462 354 351 372 490 420 372 357 495 373 379 476 373 359 377 481 348 367 491 385 337 353 440 370 358 392 482 364 358 475 359 331 357 493 334 370 516 342 386 393 472 369 325 377 435 380 371 490 344 392 363 482 373 339 359 466 364 387 506 354 374 384 479 334 361 512 351 345 356 442 382 368 395 462 366 370 528 381 364 414 478 324 364 498 344 378 400 501 341 375 369 465 378 372 465 376 372 333 542 355 355 381 453 363 355 489 354 379 359 473 378 368 504 382 386 352 450 361 352 375 478 388 343 517 342 369 379 481 334 395 457 364 370 375 525 365 380 367 484 367 378 474 368 347 382 495 380 369 402 494 399 359 495 351 360 339 470 348 373 462 373 329 375 477 360 325 361 448 329 363 447 341 355 367 529 406 374 485 387 372 350 468 388 387 386 461 401 355 449 360 367 343 450 362 340 516 355 349 397 509 375 387 343 498 379 392 461 359 353 375 528 340 385 369 466 379 350 495 364 378 346 460 342 339 505 384 354 368 520 401 382 365 468 350 355 528 365 345 388 455 373 381 520 334 350 350 483 349 386 373 472 351 356 511 384 372 364 489 348 371 344 464 330 354 468 346 340 378 437 354 329 466 324 356 333 484 361 366 362 474 376 378 471 334 365 349 508 363 349 495 345 363 380 484 362 352 365 452 375 367 454 333 383 329 500 389 339 372 473 358 331 480 344 344 387 492 359 373 531 361 377 357 463 346 325 371 494 375 372 504 376 339 382 515 373 396 513 365 365 382 472 372 369 358 466 389 355 466 351 365 356 463 359 352 361 464 343 394 484 373 353 365 495 361 356 526 403 363 345 470 348 359 368 463 368 358 484 365 354 358 462 369 372 494 413 366 350 507 386 379 355 458 371 360 475 388 357 385 522 377 349 375 468 357 382 480 371 346 361 487 360 352 468 342 374 377 452 365 359 336 473 330 348 479 377 325 385 487 353 401 507 378 384 351 479 351 391 363 478 342 361 490 385 398 395 487 370 321 488 351 349 387 435 356 352 359 517 385 351 497 380 365 355 458 314 370 381 506 341 371 521 370 393 338 498 364 364 483 376 339 363 490 378 371 338 502 395 382 510 365 367 388 472 373 393 491 348 374 374 506 321 398 363 463 404 336 471 348 327 392 474 357 361 379 489 352 358 502 359 371 395 541 345 367 531 359 340 368 480 368 350 363 473 378 364 479 376 358 368 522 365 373 487 376 362 307 475 361 383 410 457 361 396 445 354 351 381 450 376 376 381 477 377 341 474 340 366 374 527 366 362 517 350 319 378 501 347 354 376 507 352 368 500 368 382 390 498 345 366 482 364 374 372 486 379 373 357 463 385 347 519 367 371 363 497 367 365 472 363 395 371 443 383 331 377 456 384 371 450 366 362 378 489 338 396 348 465 390 374 462 349 335 345 493 340 366 463 366 370 361 477 394 370 347 529 390 380 502 387 354 346 480 336 399 474 369 346 339 462 348 376 363 472 379 367 493 387 340 352 489 382 369 344 492 366 372 496 337 374 369 474 377 355 450 345 388 384 475 353 348 381 478 373 367 430 360 358 382 507 367 392 532 384 346 351 441 373 354 362 455 341 341 510 329 360 346 479 357 330 380 504 362 389 484 369 358 366 515 334 342 486 352 365 350 509 361 383 357 479 333 380 478 320 382 363 487 382 363 477 358 334 361 500 354 392 365 483 343 380 490 408 351 376 487 360 367 397 477 390 359 493 362 358 378 489 342 363 515 393 369 333 533 329 385 356 488 388 371 435 337 378 371 511 345 380 488 390 334 365 469 368 370 315 479 366 353 478 388 337 366 489 401 359 457 330 354 337 460 361 351 340 443 371 367 482 346 393 370 500 352 351 383 507 324 382 487 329 368 363 497 378 381 482 371 351 373 488 370 331 384 518 371 364 531 366 364 388 492 343 367 505 377 358 387 489 375 390 374 517 400 374 476 384 380 346 473 368 346 357 454 350 383 490 327 337 395 483 382 349 500 329 383 405 494 363 350 356 489 369 362 495 350 407 380 479 365 347 487 372 359 405 474 347 376 383 467 362 350 493 389 377 373 501 367 358 363 487 386 349 501 354 362 344 485 369 384 496 364 375 356 486 384 387 373 452 378 386 448 340 356 336 444 332 351 482 380 365 345 498 354 371 339 471 342 368 482 367 367 369 482 369 396 409 513 361 361 483 355 371 382 508 339 351 521 350 363 376 470 384 371 380 464 390 362 504 374 250
If you look at the numbers above, you can start to see the "beat" pattern I mentioned in my last post regarding the "randomness" of the rand(). I believe that is an artifact of the round-off formula and the binary conversion to decimal, and not a defect of the rand itself. It only affects the least significant digit of the random roll, and in a pattern not decimally aligned (meaning: as I said originally, no one could possibly notice without doing what I just did above). The distribution is otherwise apparently random, and certainly random enough for tohit rolls.
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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
I can't argue with cold hard facts but I certainly seem to be missing more. Several times I have whiffed 5 times in a row, which I thought wasn't supposed to happen.
Quote:
The Streak Breaker should prevent that unless your net tohit drops below 40%.|
Originally Posted by Hy-Beams
I can't argue with cold hard facts but I certainly seem to be missing more. Several times I have whiffed 5 times in a row, which I thought wasn't supposed to happen.
|
Important to realize that the streakbreaker honors the *lowest* tohit within your current miss streak. An example illustrates the point. Suppose you attack something with an attack that has a 95% chance to hit, and you get unlucky and miss. Many people assume the streakbreaker now *guarantees* the next attack will hit, but that's not exactly true. It will *if* the next swing *also* has a 90% or better net chance tohit. If so, then the SB will guarantee that swing hits, because the SB prevents miss streaks longer than one miss from attacks with higher than 90% net chance to hit the target.
But suppose you swing with a lower accuracy attack, one with a net overall chance to hit the target of only 85%? Well, you have one miss in a row, and your current attack only has 85% chance, and the SB will tolerate as many as two misses for such attacks, so you're still allowed to miss. And what if you then swing with an even worse attack, and it has only 75% chance to hit the target? That's right, you could miss again.
What's more, the SB factors in the *worst* attack in the chain, not the best and not the most recent. So suppose you swing with brawl, and brawl has nothing slotted into it at all and somehow Brawl only has a 15% chance to hit the target. According to the streakbreaker, you can now be allowed to miss up to one hundred times in a row before it is willing to step in and force a guaranteed hit. So even if the next 99 swings are with ultrahigh accuracy and you have a 95% chance to hit the target, if you really are that unlucky that you keep rolling snake eyes, you'll keep missing. Of course, to miss 99 times in a row with an attack that has a 95% chance to hit the target would make you the unluckiest person on the planet, but the streakbreaker will not bail you out. Not on that particular miss streak, because it has been "poisoned" by that very low accuracy attack.
This sometimes confuses people who don't know how the streakbreaker works. They fire a really high accuracy attack, and then a veteran attack with no accuracy, and miss both. Then they start swinging with nothing but high accuracy attacks and while they eventually hit they wonder how they could miss three or four times in a row when the streakbreaker is supposed to make it impossible to miss twice in a row with high accuracy attacks. And the answer is, the SB doesn't take about the two misses in a row with the high accuracy attacks. It cares about the four misses in a row with the one crappy accuracy attack, which allows for longer miss streaks.
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In one little corner of the universe, there's nothing more irritating than a misfile...
(Please support the best webcomic about a cosmic universal realignment by impaired angelic interference resulting in identity crisis angst. Or I release the pigmy water thieves.)
Quote:
I will definitely PM you for that analysis. |
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
I've checked the random number generator four times in the last six years. The most recent test for randomness was a test I completed the first phase of a few weeks ago after accumulating about 5 million random rolls (I'm eventually going to do a 100 million random roll analysis, once I have enough random rolls).
So far, I have discovered no evidence of non-random behavior. If you are logging chat and have all of the tohit rolls logged, and are willing to submit your findings to independent analysis, PM me and I will arrange to have your logs' random rolls analyzed. |
Part of the problem that I am seeing (and I've petitioned this several times and didnt get an answer) is that I'm receiving a "double" roll for a single hit. The controller power, Deceive, shows this the best--but I've seen it scattered across a few other powersets as well. If you try to deceive a target, you get this on the hit roll screen:
MISSED Possessed Scientist!! Your Deceive power had a 20.00% chance to hit, you rolled a 87.69.
HIT Possessed Scientist! Your Deceive power had a 95.00% chance to hit, you rolled a 65.89.
That result comes from ONE use of the power on one target. So which one is the correct one? This is another reason why I believe the counter is skewed... if both are being registered--or even one counting while the other is "dismissed"--you can't tell me that it won't affect the results.
Quote:
I bet you have Coersive or Malaise proc in deceive. So one hit roll for power itself, another (20%) is for proc.
|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
I will definitely PM you for that analysis.
Part of the problem that I am seeing (and I've petitioned this several times) is that I'm receiving a "double" roll for a single hit. The controller power, Deceive, shows this the best--but I've seen it scattered across a few other powersets as well. If you try to deceive a target, you get this on the hit roll screen: MISSED Possessed Scientist!! Your Deceive power had a 20.00% chance to hit, you rolled a 87.69. HIT Possessed Scientist! Your Deceive power had a 95.00% chance to hit, you rolled a 65.89. That result comes from ONE use of the power on one target. So which one is the correct one? This is another reason why I believe the counter is skewed... if both are being registered--or even one counting while the other is "dismissed"--you can't tell me that it won't affect the results. |
Quote:
You would be incorrect on that... here's what I have:|
Originally Posted by NordBlast
I bet you have Coersive or Malaise proc in deceive. So one hit roll for power itself, another (20%) is for proc.
|
Coercive Persuasion: Confuse (Superior) ,
Coercive Persuasion: Confuse/Recharge (Superior) ,
Coercive Persuasion: Confuse/Recharge/Accuracy (Superior) ,
Coercive Persuasion: Recharge/Accuracy (Superior) ,
Coercive Persuasion: Confuse/Endurance (Superior)
I DO NOT have the contagious confusion proc. I only have these enhancements. Therefore, there shouldn't be an additional power being counted.
Quote:
Controller's chance for "overpowered" then?
|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
You would be incorrect on that... here's what I have:
Coercive Persuasion: Confuse (Superior) , Coercive Persuasion: Confuse/Recharge (Superior) , Coercive Persuasion: Confuse/Recharge/Accuracy (Superior) , Coercive Persuasion: Recharge/Accuracy (Superior) , Coercive Persuasion: Confuse/Endurance (Superior) I DO NOT have the contagious confusion proc. I only have these enhancements. Therefore, there shouldn't be an additional power being counted. |
It's due to controller's 'overpower'
Every controller control has a chance to deal an extra mag 1 mez on top of the base hit.
Decieve has a 20% chance for it.
(Generally it's 20%, though for some, like AoE immobilize, it's 50%)
You will also see this occurance in anything that has an extra chance to do something.
IE: energy melee bone smasher, 60% chance for stun, would have an extra 60% to-hit roll to check the stun
Quote:
Very nice, I never knew that. |
Originally Posted by Tylerst
It's due to controller's 'overpower'
Every controller control has a chance to deal an extra mag 1 mez on top of the base hit. Decieve has a 20% chance for it. (Generally it's 20%, though for some, like AoE immobilize, it's 50%) You will also see this occurance in anything that has an extra chance to do something. IE: energy melee bone smasher, 60% chance for stun, would have an extra 60% to-hit roll to check the stun |
So I'm guessing this has it's own separate hitroll and is not affected by streakbreaker or the ilk. I'm also assuming (yeah, I know... never assume) that the number isn't affected by tohit buffs or powers like Tactics. Is that correct?
One more thing, according to paragonwiki, NPC's also have streakbreaker. How is this factored into hit rolls?
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A lot of people forget, actually.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
Very nice, I never knew that.
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| So I'm guessing this has it's own separate hitroll and is not affected by streakbreaker or the ilk. I'm also assuming (yeah, I know... never assume) that the number isn't affected by tohit buffs or powers like Tactics. Is that correct? |
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| One more thing, according to paragonwiki, NPC's also have streakbreaker. How is this factored into hit rolls? |
The streakbreaker doesn't affect tohit rolls. If the streakbreaker decides your next attack will be a forced hit, the game engine doesn't bother making a roll at all. The SB doesn't "modify" the tohit roll to force the hit: that attack essentially becomes an autohitting attack.
The streakbreaker affects attacks not players or critters, and affects all attacks that must make a tohit roll to hit the target (i.e. attacks that are not autohit). The streakbreaker only affects miss-streaks: it will break a streak of misses and inject a hit if the miss streak exceeds its parameters (which vary based on your worst tohit requirement of the miss streak as described above) and does not affect hits: it will never convert a hit into a miss.
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That's interesting. If the game actually doesn't roll for forced hits... then we should be able to recognize streakbreaker-enforced hits in the combat log!|
Originally Posted by Arcanaville
The streakbreaker doesn't affect tohit rolls. If the streakbreaker decides your next attack will be a forced hit, the game engine doesn't bother making a roll at all. The SB doesn't "modify" the tohit roll to force the hit: that attack essentially becomes an autohitting attack.
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I can't remember ever seeing something like that, but of course it's quite possible that I missed the occurrences the streakbreaker actually had to do something for me. (I don't watch the combat log all the time...)
Does anybody have a record of such an event (a power being declared autohit even though it usually isn't)?
10
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Absolutely. It's phrased something like: "Hit! Your Hack attack was forced to hit by the streakbreaker."
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Originally Posted by Ten__
[color=lightblue]That's interesting. If the game actually doesn't roll for forced hits... then we should be able to recognize streakbreaker-enforced hits in the combat log!
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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09-01-2010 23:45:27 Decoy: HIT Sister Psyche! Your Hurl power was forced to hit by streakbreaker.|
Originally Posted by Ten__
That's interesting. If the game actually doesn't roll for forced hits... then we should be able to recognize streakbreaker-enforced hits in the combat log!
I can't remember ever seeing something like that, but of course it's quite possible that I missed the occurrences the streakbreaker actually had to do something for me. (I don't watch the combat log all the time...) Does anybody have a record of such an event (a power being declared autohit even though it usually isn't)? 10 |
09-02-2010 00:00:29 Decoy: HIT Back Alley Brawler! Your Hurl power was forced to hit by streakbreaker.
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Yes, but the opposite isn't true... if you are protected from hits (or if the NPC is protected from the power) the combat log doesn't say, "Protected" or "Cannot be used" instead it generates a number that cannot fall into the "hitting" range. |
Originally Posted by Ironblade
Absolutely. It's phrased something like: "Hit! Your Hack attack was forced to hit by the streakbreaker."
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I've noticed with with Hibernate specifically--it's a power I use a lot. I haven't been hit once while in the middle of it (though I've been killed many times while activating it but that's a subject for another forum). Instead of it generating a message saying "you are protected from hits," the hitroll counter never allows the NPC to land a successful hit... which is part of my confusion with the hit roll generator.
Case in point... A lvl 50 blaster in hibernate against a group of lvl 54 bosses:
Gunslinger MISSES! Incendiary Round power had a 29.78% chance to hit, but rolled a 56.20.
Gunslinger MISSES! Explosive Tip power had a 29.78% chance to hit, but rolled a 42.22.
Tactical Operative MISSES! Brawl power had a 70.13% chance to hit, but rolled a 92.22.
Operation Officer MISSES! Brawl power had a 80.69% chance to hit, but rolled a 81.37.
actical Operative MISSES! Adv Assault Rifle power had a 15.53% chance to hit, but rolled a 30.12.
Tactical Operative MISSES! Brawl power had a 70.13% chance to hit, but rolled a 72.12.
Tactical Operative MISSES! Taser power had a 22.98% chance to hit, but rolled a 30.58.
Operation Officer MISSES! Taser power had a 26.44% chance to hit, but rolled a 31.81.
Tactical Operative MISSES! Brawl power had a 65.50% chance to hit, but rolled a 82.70.
Gunslinger MISSES! Explosive Tip power had a 20.91% chance to hit, but rolled a 66.04.
Tactical Operative MISSES! Taser power had a 22.98% chance to hit, but rolled a 69.55.
Operation Officer MISSES! Brawl power had a 75.37% chance to hit, but rolled a 85.59.
This goes on the entire time I'm in hibernate. Now if I go to Talos and rough up a group of lvl 21 Tsoo with a 5% chance of hitting me, I'll get hit at least one time in thirty seconds (depending on the size of the group). This confuses me. So I'm thinking that the hit roll counter "knows" when to hit and when not to hit. This is show in Arcanaville's posting where Elude is used and the NPC's miss every time.
The inverse of this is also true. I took on a lvl 52 Class Titan and my flame powers missed each time... in exactly the same manner as hibernate. So I took it one step farther... I went to Sirens Call with my Ill/Storm and tried to deceive a villain drone. After twelve attempts, I landed a successful hit but a message popped up saying that the drone could not be deceived or confused. If that's the case, why show the hit rolls?
how and where do we turn this data in. I've been watching my numbers closely past few weeks and writing down the numbers, calculating and such.
Findings in short-player rolls are over estimated and usually end up ten-12% under than what the number suggest. And NPC rolls, including pets, seems to be understated i nthe hit roll log. Many times, a npc have 5-7% to hit and it hits way more than that. while when the player side have 5-7% to hit, it might as well be nill. The NPC seems to roll low numbers quite more often than the player.
Just now, I had 90%-95% to hit, and four times within a very short time, had to have the power force hit. Had three force hits in a row then the fourth force hit cam three mobs later, with misses in between. Havent analyzed this current data but rough counting of the misses and hits over all powers, about 50%. far from 90-95% chance.
The first time I noticed, took it "oh just a bad streak. But after paying close attention, this is more than just bad streaks.
-Female Player-
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Originally Posted by mauk2
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks." I laffed so hard.  Never change, E_L! |
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Offhand, if you're noting these results manually, you don't have enough data to justify investigation. You need to have automated capture of the data. You need many THOUSANDS of data points to even think about proving anything. Arcanaville said she routinely analyzes MILLIONS of results.
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Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
how and where do we turn this data in. I've been watching my numbers closely past few weeks and writing down the numbers, calculating and such.
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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No, that's not what's happening. Look closer. If an attack actually lands on you while Hibernate is up, the combat chat doesn't print anything at all. I think that is a bug, in other cases where the target is unaffected by the attack something prints (at least as of the last time I recall) but I confirmed the behavior of Hibernate just now. If the attacker misses you'll get a combat spam message with the miss message. But if it hits you there's no message at all. So you'll only see the tohit rolls that happen to miss, not the ones that happen to hit.|
Originally Posted by Warrior7
Yes, but the opposite isn't true... if you are protected from hits (or if the NPC is protected from the power) the combat log doesn't say, "Protected" or "Cannot be used" instead it generates a number that cannot fall into the "hitting" range.
I've noticed with with Hibernate specifically--it's a power I use a lot. I haven't been hit once while in the middle of it (though I've been killed many times while activating it but that's a subject for another forum). Instead of it generating a message saying "you are protected from hits," the hitroll counter never allows the NPC to land a successful hit... which is part of my confusion with the hit roll generator. |
As far as I know, nothing "modifies" the tohit roll. its the chance to hit that is modified. There's only one exception to that rule, and its not an exception that you'll likely see direct evidence of, and won't show itself in the combat spam as a modified tohit roll (that exception is tohit rolls used in special formulas within Requires or Magnitude clauses: people familiar with the mechanics I'm talking about will know what I'm referring to).
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Really, there's nowhere to turn such data in. After all these years of such observations never panning out**, I doubt anyone will take them seriously. Particularly without statistically air tight evidence. The only person that continues to take this remotely seriously is probably me, and even I will not conduct an investigation based solely on observational evidence unless the observer is known to me to be a trained observer of such things. I'll only investigate actual combat logs, and only if they are long enough to give me sufficient context to rule out all other possible sources of the problem.|
Originally Posted by Evil_Legacy
how and where do we turn this data in. I've been watching my numbers closely past few weeks and writing down the numbers, calculating and such.
Findings in short-player rolls are over estimated and usually end up ten-12% under than what the number suggest. And NPC rolls, including pets, seems to be understated i nthe hit roll log. Many times, a npc have 5-7% to hit and it hits way more than that. while when the player side have 5-7% to hit, it might as well be nill. The NPC seems to roll low numbers quite more often than the player. Just now, I had 90%-95% to hit, and four times within a very short time, had to have the power force hit. Had three force hits in a row then the fourth force hit cam three mobs later, with misses in between. Havent analyzed this current data but rough counting of the misses and hits over all powers, about 50%. far from 90-95% chance. The first time I noticed, took it "oh just a bad streak. But after paying close attention, this is more than just bad streaks. |
As to your specific observations, most of my observations are NPC rolls, not player rolls, and in those cases the NPCs are rolling every range of numbers equally often. Furthermore, their last roll doesn't bias the next roll: the odds of rolling high or low are equal regardless of the previous roll. Its theoretically possible that player tohit rolling could be different than NPC player rolling, but I consider that highly unlikely due to the way the game actually performs tohit rolls, which is to say to the best of my knowledge the game engine doesn't know when its rolling who is doing the rolling.
** As far as I know, reports of accuracy or tohit "not working right" have only panned out twice in the history of the game: the first time long ago when the type-stacking bug was discovered, and the second time when I investigated the mechanics of luck inspirations. And in both cases, the random number generator itself was exonerated as being the source of the problem.
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Dont know if anyone noticed or not, but the random hit roll counter is at least 10% standard calculations. My blaster has a 95% chance of hitting a possessed scientist minion of same rank. I battled this person twenty times and took the hit/miss calculations directly from the hit roll tab and dumped them into an Excel spreadsheet. The 95% actually turned into 82%!
What's worse is the defense. I've soft-capped the defense for the exact same minion and ran the numbers again. According to the hit roll tab, the scientist had a 6.51% chance of hitting me. After one hundred attempts, the enemy struck me twelve times--far more than a 6.51% chance!
Now I know what you are thinking... different attacks have different accuracy bonuses (a Warhulk's flamethrower has a smaller percentage to hit than it's chain-gun). In my calculations, I filtered out the other attacks and only used the possessed scientist's base attack (Gale in this case).
The "random" hit rolls are not generating numbers at random--this can easily be proven by looking at the tab when using hibernate. The "random" numbers are all programmed to miss when using that power. Unless the NPC's have streakbreaker, there's no way the numbers could be accurate.
Check for yourselves.