The Merged Market First Month Trepidations/Predictions
By
Adeon Hawkwood,
Posted on: 2010-06-25 19:10 in The Market and Inventions
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I have that belief since in my case its true. My villians have multiple slots missing IOs, several unfulled bids up, and a huge pool of unspent inf.|
Originally Posted by Eva Destruction
Where do you get the belief that villains have more unspent inf? I sell things redside all the time, and it looks to me like villains are spending inf. In fact, the impatient villains are probably spending even more inf than heroes, since "buy it now" blueside translates to "buy it today" redside, and a "buy it today" price blueside might translate to "buy it this week" redside. All relative to the average "going rate" of the item of course...which also often fluctuates far more widely redside, so the "buy it now" villain may have to bid way more than their blueside counterpart.
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My heroes on the other hand have full slots, few to no unfilled bids, and little pocket change. The difference is the turnover rate of the 2 disparate markets.
-Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein.
-I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. - Galileo Galilei
-When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. - Thomas Jefferson
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This does not just apply to salvage and recipes. |
Originally Posted by Nethergoat
Triumph generates less junk than Freedom, but the market doesn't care because it's a shared pool of supply.
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Go Team Venture!
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I'm absolutely positive that I do it, and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone. Well, I tend to spend them when I hit 35, if I remember to, and then save the rest until 50. I'm also certain that some people always spend them as soon as they earn them. So... does the rest of the player base split 50/50 between "spend now" and "save until 50"? I don't know. But I'd have a hard time believing that the "save until 50" crowd is insignificant.
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Originally Posted by Talen Lee
How sure of this are we, Peter?
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Avatar: "Cheeky Jack O Lantern" by dimarie
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What levels are these heroes and villains?|
Originally Posted by Miladys_Knight
I have that belief since in my case its true. My villians have multiple slots missing IOs, several unfulled bids up, and a huge pool of unspent inf.
My heroes on the other hand have full slots, few to no unfilled bids, and little pocket change. The difference is the turnover rate of the 2 disparate markets. |
Max level villain stuff is available. True, my mid-level villains have multiple bids up all the time, waiting forever for them to fill, but my 50s usually get their stuff within a few days.
Eva Destruction AR/Fire/Munitions Blaster
Darkfire Avenger DM/SD/Body Scrapper
Arc ID#161629 Freaks, Geeks, and Men in Black
Arc ID#431270 Until the End of the World
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Since I build to exemplar these are level 30 - 40. I have a level locked Dom that will only be moving forward when I have all the IOs I want to progress. I have several hundred million on the toon several hundred million out in bids and all I've been doing is grinding merits and random rolling (I did no twinking. This toon started from scratch with nothing). This particular toon has been stuck here for months. I have other villians in the same boat.|
Originally Posted by Eva Destruction
What levels are these heroes and villains?
Max level villain stuff is available. True, my mid-level villains have multiple bids up all the time, waiting forever for them to fill, but my 50s usually get their stuff within a few days. |
Meanwhile I've done the same thing on blue with similar toons. I have taken 4 to 50, have another at 47, and a level locked 30 that will be progressing soon.
All of them are broke or nearly so. Have all the IOs that I wanted for their builds slotted, and have all their builds filled. No IO that I bid on took longer to come in than 2 weeks (well technically 3 week ends so 16 days).
My villians have out standing bids that are months old. On blue side I got these bidding 80% of going rate. If I wanted to get something on vils I had to bid 110% - 120% of going rate to jump the queue even then it would take anywhere from 4-8 weeks to get IOs that I had bid on. Mean while I was still grinding and selling and my stack of cash just kept getting bigger. The shortest amount of time it took me to get a (non-garbage) pool C on villians was 4 weeks (5 weekends).
-Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein.
-I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. - Galileo Galilei
-When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. - Thomas Jefferson
Keep in mind there will be - roughly half - as many "niches" after the Market Merger as there are now.
I'm sure there may be some exception(s) to this = example: (If I'm not mistaken) YinO's will become available to Villains - via the market.
Now, I know that's not exactly a niche - but its an example of a "new" variable to the market.
There may also be some IO's that become worthwhile to sell/market - for hero's or villains that were previously vendor-fodder.
This could be due to the types of IO's slot-able in New Powersets, or some powersets that were under-represented on one side or the other - Certain Pet recipes, Mez's (?), or End Mod Sets = due to Electricity Control.
Kinetic Melee, might up the demand for 'neglected' Melee Set recipes. Dual Pistols may do the same for Ranged Sets - and all of the new Powersets could have have an effect on TAoE & PBAoE Set Recipes as well. (Although, just how "noticeable" any of the above factors might actually be, is anyone's guess.)
But, I still see/predict an overall decrease in "niches"... There will suddenly be only "one stack" of each Thunderstike recipe for sale - instead of one stack Blueside and one stack Redside. Same with Doctored Wounds, and all the others in that "useful/decent Yellow Recipes group".
Of course with this prediction, I can't say - with any real certainty - what the effects of some Characters running 'opposite faction content' may/will have on supply/drop rates - but I have some ideas on a handful of things that will come into play... But I won't pretend to know the full extent these factors might actually have.
There will be the influx of New Toons with the Kinetic Melee & Electric Control (and a 2nd wave of Demon Summoning and Dual Pistols - for people that didn't pre-order, are recently returning, etc.)
Along with - zone size/travel time, #of missions required for Contacts to give you their phone numbers, each Contacts' number of non-story arc missions (which = no progress toward Merit Rewards for Story-Arc completion)...
On top of the difference in "Merit Rewards" for TFs, SFs, Story Arcs - and the possibility of opposing faction AT's having enough of an impact on data-mined completion times for the Devs to adjust the Merit Rewards for any of them?
The other thing that occurred to me is whether there will be a reduction of stuff that has been coming from AE Ticket Rolls - If Badgers start working on whatever 'Opposing Faction' Badges for alts that may become available (IIRC some may just change to their equivalent for the other side).
And there are certainly some that will become much less "painful" to get on the other side like the Defeat Redcaps to unlock those Daggers, or maybe Isolator (?), etc.
I agree their will be chaos, but I suspect it will be a form of "ordered chaos" at least to some degree.
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Originally Posted by Arcanaville
City of Heroes didn't fail, City of Heroes was killed. If a 747 dropped on your house, you'd say you were killed, not you failed to find a safer dwelling.
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Cardiff Giant never disappoints.
*thumbsup*
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
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In that case I feel your pain. I have a Dom in a similar boat...over a month for some frickin' sleeps, confuses and fears.
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Originally Posted by Miladys_Knight
Since I build to exemplar these are level 30 - 40. I have a level locked Dom that will only be moving forward when I have all the IOs I want to progress. I have several hundred million on the toon several hundred million out in bids and all I've been doing is grinding merits and random rolling (I did no twinking. This toon started from scratch with nothing). This particular toon has been stuck here for months. I have other villians in the same boat.
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Eva Destruction AR/Fire/Munitions Blaster
Darkfire Avenger DM/SD/Body Scrapper
Arc ID#161629 Freaks, Geeks, and Men in Black
Arc ID#431270 Until the End of the World
I've decided to take August 17 off from work so as to help set "fair-and-reasonable" pricing levels upon the merger.
Repeat Offenders
I read a lol of this thread and i have to say im a little surprised.
I think this is gonna be more chaos than AE caused. I expect a total crazy freak increase in prices.
1) New players. from a new box.
2) returning players
3) New conent people will play to get their incarnation lvl thing
4) 2 very new ats types (kinetic, and elec) and two kinda new at types(demons, DP)
5) Not to mention people will roll reds on blues and blues on reds i.e. an MM hero etc...
6) people will play all thir old toons badge toons etc... for the new content
7) Im am stupid rich on blue side 20bill +, however on red not so much. Im sure others are like me and will "finish" their poorside toons
8) 2x weekend will hit also soon
9) wipe of the histories
10) a lot of redside will be bidding on the cheaper blue side stuff en mass. Most of its already cornerd. Purple pet ios, rech intensive sets etc....
there are many more reasons its gonna be a crazy, chaotic, nutjob, cluster%^$!, insane merger thats gonna make a lot of people a lot of money. And i cant wait.
Ill be selling for weeks till it all calms down then ill get back to normal.
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This, except for the selling part. I can wait a few weeks for things to settle and prices to stabilze. I know I will lose potential profits, but I least I won't lose money I currently have. My new toons will "make do" with common I/O's and SO's until I feel comfortable.|
Originally Posted by graystar_blaster
I read a lol of this thread and i have to say im a little surprised.
I think this is gonna be more chaos than AE caused. I expect a total crazy freak increase in prices. 1) New players. from a new box. 2) returning players 3) New conent people will play to get their incarnation lvl thing 4) 2 very new ats types (kinetic, and elec) and two kinda new at types(demons, DP) 5) Not to mention people will roll reds on blues and blues on reds i.e. an MM hero etc... 6) people will play all thir old toons badge toons etc... for the new content 7) Im am stupid rich on blue side 20bill +, however on red not so much. Im sure others are like me and will "finish" their poorside toons 8) 2x weekend will hit also soon 9) wipe of the histories 10) a lot of redside will be bidding on the cheaper blue side stuff en mass. Most of its already cornerd. Purple pet ios, rech intensive sets etc.... there are many more reasons its gonna be a crazy, chaotic, nutjob, cluster%^$!, insane merger thats gonna make a lot of people a lot of money. And i cant wait. Ill be selling for weeks till it all calms down then ill get back to normal. |
In some ways, this is like knowing that "Black Monday" is coming on 8/17. However, since most of us have either a temp flying power or the real thing it will be pointless to jump out the window!
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In a sense, the supply will briefly disappear, as everything gets turned back in to its owners. I'm sure a lot of items people buy are ones sitting on alts nobody has checked for weeks or months, so a few people in a hurry to buy X with the limited supply from those who have already logged on in the first hours or days after the merger to put X up for sale could rachet prices up higher within the equilibrium range. |
Originally Posted by Smurphy
For example, if prices of LotG: 7.5%s are stable at 160 on Blueside and 205 on redside (making a guesstimation) are you saying prices would go higher than 205? Why would that happen? Supply and Demand have found equilibrium Redside at that price. Why are villains, or heroes, suddenly going to desire the same amount, or more, at a higher price? Is the supply going to disappear?
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Something like that happened with a lot of the rare salvage when the markets were down for several days awhile back. Before that, almost every type of high level rare salvage was selling right around 1M, red and blue side, with a few items below that. After that down time, a fair amount of it rose to a "new equilibrium" ranging from 2 to 4M, and hasn't dropped back yet. I've been a bit surprised that the equilibrium could have that large a range, but it seems stable.
Is it possible for the LotG in your example to rise by a similar factor of three, say from 205 up to 615M? I suspect not, as the absolute amount rather then % change may be a bigger factor, but there is evidence that the equilibrium price point can vary considerably both up and down even without game changes such as the changes in salvage distribution that caused the arcane rare salvage crash a year or so ago.
And unlike with previous game changes, such as salvage redistribution, addition of MA, etc. where one might be able to predict which way prices would go, this time chaos theory may govern (i.e. small perturbations, like who happens to lowball a first sale) may determine who wins and loses. . .
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My villains are richer than my heroes, because I have more inf than I need on both sides, but the rate at which I accrue inf at the market on my villains is higher, because the sale price per unit of desirable goods is higher.|
Originally Posted by Eva Destruction
Where do you get the belief that villains have more unspent inf? I sell things redside all the time, and it looks to me like villains are spending inf. In fact, the impatient villains are probably spending even more inf than heroes, since "buy it now" blueside translates to "buy it today" redside, and a "buy it today" price blueside might translate to "buy it this week" redside. All relative to the average "going rate" of the item of course...which also often fluctuates far more widely redside, so the "buy it now" villain may have to bid way more than their blueside counterpart.
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In other words, I spend a lot of time sitting around earning money I don't spend. Very roughly, we can say that every Th units of time I get H units of inf on my heroes and every Tv units of time I make V units of inf on my villains. If I am selling level 50 or otherwise max level stuff, and I usually am, I find Th and Tv to be roughly equivalent, but V > H. So for roughly the same time invested, I earn more on a villain in absolute value.
I am primarily a seller of dropped and/or rolled goods, so I don't usually spend money to make those sales. If I was flipping stuff, it might tend to cancel out my rate of gains.
Edit: In case it's not clear, I agree with Smuphy. My greater absolute wealth is only happening because villains are paying more infamy to buy high-end L50 goods than it heroes pay influence for equivalent goods. Once influence and infamy merge, this eventually goes away, and assuming I ever spend my money (and I do/will), my heroes and villains will end up on equal market footing.
Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA
I believe villains earn at a rate roughly comparable to heroes.
It stands to reason they'll have more inf on hand because their smaller, slower market provides less junk for them to spend it on.
Assuming I generate the same income in the USA and Mongolia, I'm likely to have more cash on hand in Mongolia because they don't have a Target on every corner.
The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.
My City Was Gone
I prepurchased what I needed from Blue side in advance.
See Most of the people who are massively rich on villian side are massively rich on hero side too.
We just don't play heroside out of preference.
When something good happens to me, I can never enjoy it....
I am always too busy looking for the inevitable punchline...
BEHOLD THE POWER OF CHEESE!
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LOL|
Originally Posted by Test_Rat
We just don't play heroside out of preference.
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Definitely quoted for truth.
Now that I played a little Blue side I see I'm probably not missing much.
Have you done one of their "safeguard" missions. pfft
In my day, on mayhems we team-wiped on zone in, twice getting out of jail, once on the way to the bank and twice again on the hero -- and we liked it.
For a safeguard mish you just defeat one spawn with an EB in it, pfft. That's it.
It's not uncommon for a hero team to zone in to Safeguard mish just as the mish end sound plays because the new guy from Free Realms accidentally soloed it before the rest of the team could get there.
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Originally Posted by Nethergoat
I believe villains earn at a rate roughly comparable to heroes.
It stands to reason they'll have more inf on hand because their smaller, slower market provides less junk for them to spend it on. Assuming I generate the same income in the USA and Mongolia, I'm likely to have more cash on hand in Mongolia because they don't have a Target on every corner. |
But you WOULD be eating out every night.... Mmmmmm Mongolian bbq
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Friend is in the same boat, he level locks stuff at 30 or 35 , so we basically run AE for tickets, roll and craft and so on. This takes a pretty long time though, so we've got several billion between us and very little to spend it on. To pass the time, we've been buying purples and storing them for fun. Bin one is almost full (just need 12 more purples) then onto bin two.|
Originally Posted by Eva Destruction
In that case I feel your pain. I have a Dom in a similar boat...over a month for some frickin' sleeps, confuses and fears.
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We might use them at some point, or sell them during the merge, or just let them sit there. Who knows? We farm enough (2-5 hours per day usually, when we have downtime) that we can make money to buy more and store the ones we get as drops.
Bring on the merge!
Questions about the game, either side? /t @Neuronia or @Neuronium, with your queries!
168760: A Death in the Gish. 3 missions, 1-14. Easy to solo.
Infinity Villains
Champion, Pinnacle, Virtue Heroes
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Yes, I agree with each of these points.|
Originally Posted by Test_Rat
I prepurchased what I needed from Blue side in advance.
See Most of the people who are massively rich on villian side are massively rich on hero side too. We just don't play heroside out of preference. |
I snagged the base salvage I was missing on my villain thru my hero via WW; I just need to e-mail it (to me) when that functionality goes live. Not the way I imagined completing my collection, but I am not going to complain.
Go Team Venture!
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There are days on end where I just sit around and make money on my red side toons.|
My villains are richer than my heroes, because I have more inf than I need on both sides, but the rate at which I accrue inf at the market on my villains is higher, because the sale price per unit of desirable goods is higher. In other words, I spend a lot of time sitting around earning money I don't spend. Very roughly, we can say that every Th units of time I get H units of inf on my heroes and every Tv units of time I make V units of inf on my villains. If I am selling level 50 or otherwise max level stuff, and I usually am, I find Th and Tv to be roughly equivalent, but V > H. So for roughly the same time invested, I earn more on a villain in absolute value. |
Overall Im not really worried about what will happen, I will lose some money, make some money but overall adjust to the new market.
Speaking from personal experience, when I'm looking to complete a build and I need a pool C/D recipe, I'll first check a wide level range to see if I can find any supply below 50 (or 40, or 30, as the case may be with some of the sets I use), but generally there won't be anything so I'll just place my bid at 50 and come back in a day or so to a filled bid. When I was leveling my Mastermind two and a half years ago I decided I didn't want to pay 50-80 million for a level 40 Decimation piece so I placed a bid of 10 million (slightly higher than the going rate) on a level 37 piece. By the time my bid filled, the Mastermind in question was level 50 and the character I'd been buying the piece for had also reached 50 - I'd placed the bid in November and it didn't fill until March. That thankfully hasn't happened to me since (partly because I have enough income to be a "buy it nao" person and don't generally place bids on items with no supply and low movement), but I know the issue still exists and at least the market merge will help somewhat.
"One day we all may see each other elsewhere. In Tyria, in Azeroth. We may pass each other and never know it. And that's sad. But if nothing else, we'll still have Rhode Island."