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The problem isn't that it send a signal that the game was dying (which I believe it would, to a certain extent, but nevertheless). The real problem is that it would change NCSoft's business model for the game as a result.|
Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
They could offer one with the release of Going Rogue. Offering a lifetime sub would not signal the deathrose of this game as many seem to believe it would.
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Here's our current model: When all of your players are paying to play on a monthly basis, it is in the game's best interest to provide free new content on a regular basis, and focus on community relations. Our free issues are a perfect example of that. When you stop offering new content, or when you start charging for it, people who are paying on a monthly basis will either get bored, or become angry that the updates to the game aren't included in their monthly subscription fees.
Here's what would happen with lifetime subscriptions: The business model becomes inverted--instead of the company earning more money the longer your players stick with the game, now the longer a player plays your game, the more money you lose over time. Lifetime sub players will benefit from upgrades, server maintenance and development costs without contributing any new funds. Your incentive to keep people interested in staying with your game disappears--your only real incentive to give people their money's worth is so that they will be interested in purchasing your next game. If you hope to make any money off the lifetime sub players, you have to charge for any new updates to the game. This enrages the monthly sub players, who still have the option to quit whenever they become unsatisfied. The lifers stick it out, since they've already paid their dues, but they feel tricked. They aren't being tricked, of course, their company is just trying to stay afloat, but that's the way it looks. They start to complain that the devs don't listen to them, and they are only in it for the money, etc...
It's just not a good idea.
Feel free to try out my AE mission arc, # 473452: Praetorian Redemption
@Valerika
sorry sol, i ran out of fruit baskets and chocolates, would you accept ice cream with rainbow sprinkles? 
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I would accept it with heartfelt thanks |
Originally Posted by Sharker_Quint
sorry sol, i ran out of fruit baskets and chocolates, would you accept ice cream with rainbow sprinkles?
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Feel free to try out my AE mission arc, # 473452: Praetorian Redemption
@Valerika
Steampunkette, I also agree that your post was very well written. On a side note, I heard about your recent difficulties with your mom's health, your job, the long car rides, etc. You are a trooper--hang in there. I wish nothing but the best for you and your family.
Feel free to try out my AE mission arc, # 473452: Praetorian Redemption
@Valerika
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And for all anyone knows, offering a lifetime sub along with a new, boxed expansion like GR potentially could bring in another 120,000 more subscribers to play the game because it is a "good deal". You are guessing at what the impact would be. |
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
STO has at least 500,000 subscribers less than a month from launch and can afford to keep offering lifetime subs. If handled right STO could easily be Cryptics version of WoW with millions of customers.
CoH on the other hand has maybe 120,000 subs. Do you think server transfers and booster packs are going to make up for the lost income from monthly subs after 80% of the players buy lifetime subs and CoH no longer has sub fees coming in a year later? Lifetime subs would be a death sentence for the game at this point. |
You are also guessing that 80% of the playerbase would buy a lifetime sub. For all anyone knows, it would be less than 1% who would.
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Well... Obviously someone isn't paying attention! let's go over this, again.|
Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
And for all anyone knows, offering a lifetime sub along with a new, boxed expansion like GR potentially could bring in another 120,000 more subscribers to play the game because it is a "good deal". You are guessing at what the impact would be.
You are also guessing that 80% of the playerbase would buy a lifetime sub. For all anyone knows, it would be less than 1% who would. |
Offering a $200 Lifetime subscription within one month of Going Rogue's Release would be a bad idea. Why? Because those 120,000 new players aren't going to plop down $230 on a game they've never played before. $30 with a "Free" month of play? Sure! But not another $200.
Now. Let's assume that of those those 120,000 players about 80% get standard subscriptions (which, if they bought the game, is a fairly standard assumption) which they continue for a full 6 months. Of those about 60-70% can be assumed to stay on for another year, becoming 18 month veterans. After that, however, the drop-off rate is intense, until you're left with about 1/4 of the original players (30,000) still playing after about 2 years and 6 months.
Assuming one quarter or less players from the original 120,000 players purchase the Lifetime subscriptions it's a sound business plan. But with our economy in shambles you'd likely have a larger portion of the playerbase trying to get the "Long Term" entertainment value by paying what they would normally pay for just over a year's worth of gameplay for a permanent game.
And it's this level of economic risk that puts lifetime subscription offers in a dangerous region. Add to that the growing market (some would say "Glut") of MMOs in the world. City of Heroes is competing with every other MMO there is, not -just- Champions Online or Detective Comics Universe Online. Cross-genre interest is rampant.
In addition the company must maintain it's current stable of designers who all have a yearly salary which must be paid. How long would you continue working 40 hours a week without a raise or bonus, regardless of how many new innovations you've created? The price for quality designers is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination.
So. Combine every point herein with the various points in my previous post on the issue. Does it make sense -now-?
-Rachel-
PS. And let me add that if any of those New or Returning players -did- drop down the $200 lifetime subscription fee this economic train wreck gets even worse. Now the initial 80% has a hit of a specific number of players who will, effectively, play for one year and no more, for the purposes of revenue stream! Which in turn cascades into the remaining numbers.
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Obviously.|
Originally Posted by Steampunkette
Well... Obviously someone isn't paying attention! let's go over this, again.
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| Offering a $200 Lifetime subscription within one month of Going Rogue's Release would be a bad idea. Why? Because those 120,000 new players aren't going to plop down $230 on a game they've never played before. |
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| Now. Let's assume .... |
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| How long would you continue working 40 hours a week without a raise or bonus, regardless of how many new innovations you've created? |
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Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
Obviously.
Read above where I am referring to NEW subscribers, not the existing base. Offering a lifetime sub is a good deal and can be an incentive for new subscribers. All you are doing is assuming. You are assuming offering lifetime subs would negatively impact the game when you have no idea whether it would or not. Sure, it might. Then again, it might not. I happen to know quite a few people who have not received any pay raises in the last 3 years, let alone EVER receiving any kind of bonuses. |
the problem is how many new players are going to plunk down $230 up front for a video game that is near 6 yrs old? what part of it is not a good buisness practice to offer lifetime subs after so long unless the game is dying don't you understand? and even then you are taking a chance that the game won't close it's door the next day after you lifetime sub.
for a brand new game starting out, fine. for a game that has had the life span such as this, absolutely not, no way, never, no how and all that jazz for saying NO.
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It's only a good deal in the short term--that's the part you fail to understand. In the long term, it alters the business model for the game in a negative way.| Read above where I am referring to NEW subscribers, not the existing base. Offering a lifetime sub is a good deal and can be an incentive for new subscribers. |
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| All you are doing is assuming. You are assuming offering lifetime subs would negatively impact the game when you have no idea whether it would or not. Sure, it might. Then again, it might not. |
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| I happen to know quite a few people who have not received any pay raises in the last 3 years, let alone EVER receiving any kind of bonuses. |
Feel free to try out my AE mission arc, # 473452: Praetorian Redemption
@Valerika
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I'm sorry, please run that by me again. I seem to have missed the part where CoV, GR, server transfers, booster packs, and extra character slots allow players to cease their monthly payments.|
Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
You mean like paid expansions (CoV, GR), server transfers, booster packs, character slots etc?
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Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
You are guessing that offering a liftetime sub would be interpreted as any kind of "white flag" to the industry.
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http://www.fimfiction.net/story/36641/My-Little-Exalt
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Everything everyone does, Financially, is an assumption. Assuming something will be worth the purchase. Assuming something will be worth the risk. Assuming variables which cannot be accurately predicted.|
Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
Obviously.
Read above where I am referring to NEW subscribers, not the existing base. Offering a lifetime sub is a good deal and can be an incentive for new subscribers. All you are doing is assuming. You are assuming offering lifetime subs would negatively impact the game when you have no idea whether it would or not. Sure, it might. Then again, it might not. I happen to know quite a few people who have not received any pay raises in the last 3 years, let alone EVER receiving any kind of bonuses. |
However some assumptions are based upon prior experience. Or educated guesses of where things will stand based on the current situation and generally accepted and expected variables within a specific range (generally represented through percentages and soft-numbers)
Based on the current market, the age of the game, standard business practices relating to subscription marketing or long-term payment services, current subscriber base, and current economic state: This idea is risky. Too risky for most businesses to invest in it. Speaking as an Insurance Agent gone MMO Designer and former Business manager I can safely tell you that the risk is greater than the reward in this scenario based on a 5-12 year continuing plan.
Having studied these things (and trust me, I -have- studied them) it would be a horrendously poor decision on NCNC's part to offer lifetime subscriptions before the creation of a second CoH, as the first would wither and die in it's content-generation.
Did you miss the part where I said I was trying to develop my -own- MMO? This requires weeks and months of intensive reading on business plans, payment options, and a great deal on money management.
Please. Rather than beat your head against the wall railing about how it should be your way or clipping single lines from my paragraphs-long post: Invest an hour and a half into reading up on Subscription based payment plans vs. Free to Play with Microtransactions business plans vs. Lifetime Subscriptions with Microtransactions with side-by-side Monthly Payment Subscriptions with Microtransactions.
And finally look into the current DDO business plan. Monthly Payment with Microtransactions WITH Lifetime Subscriptions with Microtransactions WITH Free to Play with Microtransactions. Which is actually not a -terrible- system but definitely has it's bugs!
-Rachel-
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Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
Read above where I am referring to NEW subscribers, not the existing base. Offering a lifetime sub is a good deal and can be an incentive for new subscribers.
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Oh so your saying that the devs should alienate the people that have demonstrated themselves to be their most loyal customers. No that won't blow up in their face.
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| All you are doing is assuming. You are assuming offering lifetime subs would negatively impact the game when you have no idea whether it would or not. Sure, it might. Then again, it might not. |
It's not an assumption. It's simple math.
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Actually it -was- an assumption. I was -assuming- she was right about GR bringing in 120,000 players and doubling the current playerbase. And then using widely accepted percentages based on studies done on various MMOs (from Ultima online through Everquest, into World of Warcraft, Perfect world, and dozens of others) to calculat how much of the playerbase would be remaining after a 2-3 year period.|
Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
It's not an assumption. It's simple math.
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But, you know, that's just an assumption.
-Rachel-
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If only all businesses could be sustained on happy thoughts alone.|
Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA
All you are doing is assuming. You are assuming offering lifetime subs would negatively impact the game when you have no idea whether it would or not. Sure, it might. Then again, it might not.
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Especially in these economically difficult times, making a decision based on "it might be bad, it might be good, who can say for sure?" would be a sign of insanity.
There is such a thing as an educated guess. Assuming that new people won't shell out 200 bucks for an old game they have tried for two weeks at most when there's new shinies on the market is an educated guess. Assuming that long-time players will jump on such a deal so they don't have to pay anymore to play in the long is a safe guess.
You're doing the opposite. You assume that lots of people will see a six year old game they may have never heard of before (let's face it, unless you actively follow the MMO scene, you won't have heard about CoH. It's marketing team isn't really trying to make the public aware of the game) and shell out money they could use to buy an entire console instead, and that die-hard fans won't jump to the chance to play the game for what is after two years essentially free. That requires such an utter subversion of human psychology that I can only assume you are in fact posting from Bizarro Earth, where these things are common occurences.
For Life Time Subscriptions not to be disastrous a series of unlikely events need to happen. Hell freezing over first may or may not be included in that series of events.
You see, I don't know for certain that I won't be ***** if I decide to take a walk outside at night, naked, in the shadier parts of the neighbourhood, but I'd rather not take my chances.
I think what the pro-lifetimers miss is that while NCSoft would generate a lot of money in the first year from the subscriptions, they don't see that at month 13 NCSoft would start losing money from that player. Most lifetime subscriptions I have seen were based on the cost for one year. After that year is up, they are not getting any new revenue. Micro transactions (like CO has,) New box expansions, and other add on packs are a way to keep generating income, but then the players feel like they are being nickel and dimed to death.
�Let there be truth, happiness, and waffles�
-Vagabond, Dark Lord & Avatar of Gnarr
The Justiciars
sorry nox, i gave away all my snacks earlier. 
no, wait...wait... i found some caramel popcorn if that is good for you?
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I'll be getting my 72 month Vet badge soon and I can tell you, NCSoft offering lifetime subs when GR is released would not alienate me in the least.
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Originally Posted by Forbin_Project
Oh so your saying that the devs should alienate the people that have demonstrated themselves to be their most loyal customers. No that won't blow up in their face.
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Shard Warrior - 50 MA/Regen/BM Scrapper
Founding Member and Leader : Shadow-Force
Co-Leader: Council of Heroes
"Whatever evils come this way... we will be there to stop them."
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Forbin was pointing out Freeze's statement that lifetime subscriptions would ONLY apply to new accounts and new players coming to the game.|
Originally Posted by Shard_Warrior
I'll be getting my 72 month Vet badge soon and I can tell you, NCSoft offering lifetime subs when GR is released would not alienate me in the least.
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Are you sure you wouldn't be upset about that? Or the large portion of the long-time veterans of the player-base with multiple 50s? It would upse tme if I wasn't allowed to get a Lifetime subscription on my account and, instead, had to get a new account to take advantage of it...
-Rachel-
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I did not read that post as saying it would apply to new subscribers only. I could be wrong, but I interpreted it as an offer to go with the launch of GR as an incentive to potentially bring in some new subscribers.|
Originally Posted by Steampunkette
Forbin was pointing out Freeze's statement that lifetime subscriptions would ONLY apply to new accounts and new players coming to the game.
Are you sure you wouldn't be upset about that? Or the large portion of the long-time veterans of the player-base with multiple 50s? It would upse tme if I wasn't allowed to get a Lifetime subscription on my account and, instead, had to get a new account to take advantage of it... -Rachel- |
As I said, lifetime subs do not bother me in the least. I can't and don't speak for everyone, but from my personal opinion I really don't care either way.
Shard Warrior - 50 MA/Regen/BM Scrapper
Founding Member and Leader : Shadow-Force
Co-Leader: Council of Heroes
"Whatever evils come this way... we will be there to stop them."
I know if they offered lifetime subs ONLY to new subscribers I would be annoyed.
Lifetime subs can be a great deal for players, but are a poor one for the company, unless they need a large cashflow boost (such as at launch). Even then its pretty debateable.
Heck go back to the gaming magazines of yesteryear. Having to print issues for 'lifetime' subscribers was an ongoing cost that drove more than a few out of business.
Same holds true for other areas. I have a colleague who has life time membership to a huting association. They mail him 6 times a year a magazine, and various other bits and pieces. He pays them nothing in an ongoing manner.
the longer he lives, the greater that associations financial loss will be.
@Catwhoorg "Rule of Three - Finale" Arc# 1984
@Mr Falkland Islands"A Nation Goes Rogue" Arc# 2369 "Toasters and Pop Tarts" Arc#116617
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I'd love a lifetime subscription, and would buy one for CoX in a heartbeat. I'm just saying it would be a bad idea for NCSoft/Paragon Studios to do it.
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Originally Posted by Shard_Warrior
As I said, lifetime subs do not bother me in the least. I can't and don't speak for everyone, but from my personal opinion I really don't care either way.
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http://www.fimfiction.net/story/36641/My-Little-Exalt
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Originally Posted by Shard_Warrior
I did not read that post as saying it would apply to new subscribers only. I could be wrong, but I interpreted it as an offer to go with the launch of GR as an incentive to potentially bring in some new subscribers.
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I'll accept the possibility that that may be what Miss Freeze intended to imply so you may be right, but I personally see only one interpretation of what she said . . .
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Originally Posted by Miss_Freeze_NA Read above where I am referring to NEW subscribers, not the existing base. Offering a lifetime sub is a good deal and can be an incentive for new subscribers. |
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I would be more than annoyed. I have bought every booster and edition this game has put out for both my accounts, and I wouldn't hesitate to buy a lifetime for my main account. However, if I was told that if I wanted a lifetime sub I'd have to start over from scratch, give up all my vet rewards, and buy all that stuff a third time . . . well let's just say I can find other things to spend $30 bucks on each month.
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Originally Posted by Catwhoorg
I know if they offered lifetime subs ONLY to new subscribers I would be annoyed.
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As an Insurance agent I can talk to you all day about the best time to sell a "Lifetime Subscription"... Even without my studies.
When you're a 21 year old non-smoker in great health your insurance premiums will be low. Why? Because barring some accident you're going to livefor a long, LONG time. I'll be making my $18.88/month off of you for at least 60 years if you maintain a healthy lifestyle. That's $13,593.60 I'll be making over the course of those 60 years. And when you kick the bucket (and you will kick the bucket) I'll pay out the $10,000 price-tag you put on your mortality. Meanwhile the $13,593.60 has, over the past 60 years, made money in stocks and bonds or more secure, lower-payout methods.
Now let me sell that insurance to 20 people a day for 5 years. And I'll even assume 1 full year out of those five was taken off from sales for holidays and weekends. I'll have made $396,933,120 And all of that will be returned except for the $101,339,520 profit I made off of each of those 29,200 sales. That's just the profits -straight- from the insurance. Not including the fact that I put all of the money received into securities or stocks which will, over time, make me more money.
Now you can see how their long-term subscription to my plan is making me lots of money, right?
You know who I sell a "Lifetime Policy" to? A single-payment policy? Anyone over 75. Why? Because they're going to die -soon-. I need to get what money i can out of them fast and hope to turn a profit on it before they die and get their money back. Are they going to get $10,000 of life insurance for $18.88? No way! Maybe they'll get it for $2,000 if they're in -greater- shape. but expecting that much return on such short notice otherwise is infeasible. They'll be paying $6,000 in a single payment for $10,000 later.
Heck! The older you are when you buy monthly premium based insurance the more it costs. But you -can- pay more up front and have the insurer treat you as a younger age for the cost of your monthly premium. Basically paying the past 5 years worth of premiums to be treated like you're 5 years younger.
Ultimately you have to reverse this logic for an MMO company. They need that big payout -early- rather than late, to cover their costs. And the farther and farther away they get from the big payout the less and less likely a lifetime subscription is.
I honestly feel like a horrible person for putting it like this.. But yeah. That's how life insurance basically works. Reverse MMO Billing. You buy the Box first, insurers buy the Box last.
-Rachel-
Make a girl blush, why don't ya?
Okay. Okay! *giggles* Enough Threadjacking. =-3
-Rachel-