Notes on new team difficulty settings


Abigail Frost

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin View Post
I get different numbers here. I'd say the expected values are between 34 and 15. This makes your 17 recipes just within the expected range. However it's also consistent with a drop rate of about 1.2%.
My bad, I was unclear. My expecteds were around 57 for salvage and around 24.5 for recipes - that wasn't meant to be the range. If I built the confidence intervals (I've not been doing that because I've not been certain what to use for the SD, and am too lazy to take the % I get out of creating the margin of error and translating it back into real numbers) I'm guessing the upper and lower bounds you mentioned would be consistent with what I had.

I didn't come back on, but I took my fire/psi to Ouroboros and got the same mission I'd been running with my brute to get the 1% drop rate information. It spawned on a different map, but with the same number of enemies total, and with an expected 11.?? recipe drops, I got 12. I'm going to take my brute tonight and run the silly thing twice more, once thru Ouroboros and once on the map as it exists on him "live," and do a /whereami to get the precise map name both times. If I can get it to spawn on a different map and give me a higher drop rate on the same character, then drop back to the cruddy baseline on the same map, I'll be satisfied that I've probably isolated the problem.

I've been carrying this mission around without completing it for... I dunno. 2 years? More? So it may have gotten locked into a bugged version of the map.


My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.

 

Posted

Ran a Lib set for 8 no bosses, got 11 recipe drops only three of those weren't generics. Also received 52 salvage.


 

Posted

I just ran a couple of missions to check that, and I've the same conclusion as you guys. Drops are ok for inspiration/enhancement/salvages, but way under my predictions for recipes (based on values I got from ParagonWiki, same as yours). IIRC, I expected something around 18 and I got 8 (6 commons, 2 uncommons) on 2 differents runs.

Tests were made with the last update (the one that came out a few hours ago), so if it's a bug, it's still here. I hope devs will have a look a it, we're far away from a coincidence or bad luck I think.


 

Posted

Just ran some missions in RWZ on test. Someone asked for rikti so they could check vanguard merit numbers. +2 Spawned for 5 team members. Maybe i'll do it again tomorrow spawned for higher so I get more lts. (Repeatable missions from Borea)

706 Defeats
658 Minions
48 Lts

9 recipes (0 sets)
88 Vanguard Merits

Expected recipes: 658*.026667 + 48*.05333 = 17.55 + 2.56 = 20.11

According to wiki outside of ship raids, rikit should drop merits 10% of the time. Minions = 1, Lts = 2, Bosses and higher = 3

Expected VG Merits: 658*.1 + (48*.1)*2 = 65.8 + 9.6 = 75.4

From my admittedly small sample size it seems to back up what others have found that recipes are not dropping as readily as they should. Seems like Vanguard merits are within the appropriate range tho. Sorry no numbers on salvage, didn't realize it filled up during my testing and neglected to clear to make room, so my number was inaccurate *face palm*


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxunS View Post
From my admittedly small sample size it seems to back up what others have found that recipes are not dropping as readily as they should.
Just to confirm that...

I just checked the stat's on this and I reckon that you would expect to get more than 9 recipes from this many defeats about 99% of the time. 9 is suspiciously low.

Likewise, I'd expect you to get less than 88 Vanguard merits about 94% of the time. This makes the merit drop figure high but not suspiciously so.


 

Posted

I've noticed a trend here. The recipe drop rates that are being reported are about 1/2 the old rate. (Take this with a big pinch of salt.)

I'm a little worried that people might be reporting runs with suspiciously low drop rates but not the ones with normal or unusually high rates.

If you do a test run, please post it here whatever the result is. Thanks. Don't forget to tell us how many mobs you defeated and at least roughly how many were lts or bosses.


 

Posted

I've just done a test run on the Wall in Cimerora. This is where I've been doing lots of runs in live as well.

I had 949 defeats including 95 LTs and 2 bosses. I received 8 recipes including one costume.

I was expecting 28 recipes with a 95% range of between 17 and 38. 8 is way too low.

FWIW I received 70 pieces of salvage which matches the drop rate I get in live.


 

Posted

Has anyone checked this against how things are currently on live? Just to make sure this isn't something old that has simply been overlooked.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adeon Hawkwood View Post
Also it's going to drive people back into the AE since Pool A/B recipes can be rolled there while Merits only allow for them to be purchased individually (at ridiculous prices).
You gotta love 8 merit rewards for story arcs (multi missions)! why in no time you'll have 200 for a single recipe out of a full set you need /sarcasm.

Yah the merit rewards are still far too low for the non tf/trial person. Worse redside as there are fewer tf/trials that are short. ITF is the most popular it seems.


Djeannie's Costume Creator Overhaul Wishlist
Carnie Base

"Once the avalanche has started, it is too late for the pebbles to vote" -Kosh

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxunS View Post
Has anyone checked this against how things are currently on live? Just to make sure this isn't something old that has simply been overlooked.
If you read up a bit, someone took TopDoc's rather epic live statistics and compared them to the drop probability data on ParagonWiki. That lined up, suggesting those numbers are still valid. Also, Synapse has told us there's no intentional change from live drop rates.

So based on those two pieces of information, it looks like something's bugged.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin View Post
I'm a little worried that people might be reporting runs with suspiciously low drop rates but not the ones with normal or unusually high rates.

If you do a test run, please post it here whatever the result is. Thanks. Don't forget to tell us how many mobs you defeated and at least roughly how many were lts or bosses.
Indeed.

My recommendation is to pick a testing method (Cim wall, particular mission, etc.) and repeat it a lot, going for 1000 or more total defeats. No matter how many times you run it, report your cumulative info. So if you run a mission five times, report the total number of defeats and drops across all five, and not the results of just one run.

If you don't use HeroStats, you can still get information about number of mobs defeated by turning on chat logging. It will record not just chat, but also defeats and reward drops. It's possible to search through and/or parse those logs to count up how many baddies you took out. A good programmer's text editor can do this for you, as can a windows version of grep. You can also count them by hand in something like notepad or word, but it's pretty labor intensive. I recommend automation.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie Gremlin View Post
Likewise, I'd expect you to get less than 88 Vanguard merits about 94% of the time. This makes the merit drop figure high but not suspiciously so.
I made a mistake with the vanguard merit number. I neglected to account for the merit rewarded for completing a mission. Running more today and keeping track better. I'll try to get 2k or so kills to have a better sample size.

One question, what's the underling drop rate if there is any... I'm coming across lots of monkeys ><


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxunS View Post
One question, what's the underling drop rate if there is any... I'm coming across lots of monkeys ><
I am pretty sure their drop rate is zero.


Blue
American Steele: 50 BS/Inv
Nightfall: 50 DDD
Sable Slayer: 50 DM/Rgn
Fortune's Shadow: 50 Dark/Psi
WinterStrike: 47 Ice/Dev
Quantum Well: 43 Inv/EM
Twilit Destiny: 43 MA/DA
Red
Shadowslip: 50 DDC
Final Rest: 50 MA/Rgn
Abyssal Frost: 50 Ice/Dark
Golden Ember: 50 SM/FA

 

Posted

Sample Test on Live Server;

Lvl 50 Plant/Psy against 49 Nemesis

1241 defeats: (minions and lieutenants only)

I received 31 generic recipes, and 6 Set IOs (one hetacomb: chance for NE)

124 Salvage


 

Posted

This morning's runs. Again random missions from Borea in RWZ, today set at -1, 8 team size. Ran 10 missions

1031 kills
756 minions
275 lts

17 recipes (4 set, 13 generic)
9 enhancements
69 salvage (1 rare, 14 uncommon, 54 common)
138 Vanguard merits (not including those from mission completion this time )

Expected recipes: 756*.026667 + 275*.05333 = 20.16 + 14.67 = 34.83
Expected salvage: 756*.08 + 275*.1064 = 60.48+29.26 = 89.74
Expected VG Merits: 756*.1 + (275*.1)*2 = 75.6 + 55 = 130.6

I'll let someone who's better at statistics interpret, but the recipe drop rate does seem consistently too low. I'll was going to test on CoT but i have the possessed scientist farm, hero stats won't distinguish between lts and minions since they have the same name


 

Posted

Other things that might be worth reporting:

What AT character is being used? I got numbers close to standard when testing with my fire/psi dom, but numbers WAY below expected when using my SS/EA brute.

If you test on a single map, use /whereami to be able to provide the precise map name.

Have you adjusted any of the "new" settings in your control panel (e.g., how many levels will you allow the game to auto-adjust you?)?

I'll hop on in a bit to test the map-specific theory, but given that comparable (low) drop rates have no been observed in open-zone Cimerora testing, I kind of suspect I was following another red herring there as well.

Very curious about ATs, though. I suspect that at least one person who reported results from a Liberate TV map that were close to Live drop rates was using a dominator. It'd be weird if some ATs had normal drop rates and some were low, but given the complexity of the code base, I doubt it's impossible.


My postings to this forum are not to be used as data in any research study without my express written consent.

 

Posted

50 brute, running the demon ship mission on +0. All minions, all level 49. Tested 20 runs (1040 kills) at team size 1 and 10 runs (1040 kills) team size 2. All runs done on test.

Inspirations:
Size 1: 339 total. 0.326 per kill, 3.068 kills per drop
Size 2: 365 total. 0.358 per kill, 2.849 kills per drop

Common Salvage:
Size 1: 61 total. 0.059 per kill, 17.049 kills per drop
Size 2: 60 total. 0.059 per kill, 17.333 kills per drop

Uncommon Salvage:
Size 1: 16 total. 0.015 per kill, 65.000 kills per drop
Size 2: 19 total. 0.019 per kill, 54.737 kills per drop

Rare Salvage:
Size 1: 3 total. 0.003 per kill, 346.667 kills per drop
Size 2: 4 total. 0.004 per kill, 260 kills per drop

Common Recipes:
Size 1: 34 total. 0.033 per kill, 30.588 kills per drop
Size 2: 19 total. 0.019 per kill, 54.737 kills per drop

Uncommon Pool A:
Size 1: 3 total, 0.003 per kill, 346.667 kills per drop
Size 2: 5 total. 0.005 per kill, 208 kills per drop

Rare Pool A:
Size 1: 2 total, 0.002 per kill, 520 kills per drop
Size 2: 1 total, 0.001 per kill, 1040 kills per drop

Enhancements:
Size 1: 11 total, 0.011 per kill, 94.546 kills per drop
Size 2: 5 total, 0.005 per kill, 208 kills per drop.

With team size 1, 1040 kills got me 11 enhancements and 39 recipe drops
With team size 2, 1040 kills got me 5 enhancements and 25 recipe drops

I'll be doing more testing, but with 2 samples just a bit over 1000 each, thought it might be worth putting up now.


119088 - Outcasts Overcharged. Heroic.

 

Posted

I wanted to drop in my 2 cents. I copied over my 2 fire/kin trollers and ran 20 total BM runs. I didn't keep track of anything except averages in 2 manners.

first 10 runs:

team of 2, 2 in mission set at +4 @ 8 man levels.
Averaged 13k per boss defeat, 5 recipes per run.

2nd 10 runs:

team of 8, only 2 in mission set at +4 @ 8 man levels.
Averaged 32k per boss defeat, 11 recipes per run.

Not sure what this means but it seems to me that you still benefit greatly by having fills.


 

Posted

I just finished running 4 missions on my Kat/WP scrapper; two of which were run from Borea in the RWZ and two from the Roman in Cimerora. The missions were run on the test server with a difficulty of -1 Level, 8-man spawns. I don't know the exact maps because I didn't think to look. Both Roman and both Rikti maps were the exact same though.

Defeated Mobs: 668
Enhancements Dropped: 6
Inspirations Dropped: 175
Vanguard Merits Acquired: 31
Recipes Dropped: 9 Total (4 set, 5 standard)
Salvage Dropped: 52 Total (40 Common, 10 Uncommon, 2 Rare)
Influence Earned: 2,116,393
Time Elapsed (H:M:S): 1:19:09

I know that the Vanguard Merits will be slightly skewed since they were only acquired in two of the four missions that I ran. I will run some more missions tomorrow in order to get a larger sampling.

This was my first run with the new difficulty system and I loved sweeping through those mobs like they were nothing. The Romans caused me to actually make Defensive Inspirations so they didn't debuff me into the ground, but I still never was defeated. I16 is awesome if for nothing besides the difficulty slider, IMO.

One final caveat for this post was how much influence (raw, not through drops) I earned just running on my own. I remember doing samples before while running solo and only earning ~400K inf/hour. It's nice to see that amount swing up to somewhere around 1.7M ifn/hour still running solo. I think it will probably mean more inflation in the market because, in essence, the player base is being expanded where farmers no longer need to team up with other players to generate their influence and drops. However, if those same farmers move from AE back to PI, it makes me wonder if we won't see some interesting shifts in the market probably back to somewhere similar to pre I14 as far as salvage and recipe costs are concerned.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignitros View Post
I wanted to drop in my 2 cents. I copied over my 2 fire/kin trollers and ran 20 total BM runs. I didn't keep track of anything except averages in 2 manners.

first 10 runs:

team of 2, 2 in mission set at +4 @ 8 man levels.
Averaged 13k per boss defeat, 5 recipes per run.

2nd 10 runs:

team of 8, only 2 in mission set at +4 @ 8 man levels.
Averaged 32k per boss defeat, 11 recipes per run.

Not sure what this means but it seems to me that you still benefit greatly by having fills.
This is the test I was looking for.

I am betting this will be what others will see as well. I'll try to get toons copied over to test and try this out myself tomorrow.

My question with the team of 8 were the other 6 off map but on team the whole time, or just on team to paint the map?


Card Carrying DeFulmenstrator--Member Crazy 88s
We burn more Influence before 8am than you make all day.

 

Posted

Average enemies per mission: 378 (305.91 min, 72.09 lieut) (if you want the detail calculation for that I can provide it).

Expected salvages = 32.14/mish

Expected recipes = 12/mish (9.3 common, 2.3 uncommon, 0.3 rare)


Mish set for 6, enemies lvl = 50

Salvages = 32
Recipes = 8 (3 uncommon)

Mish set for 6, enemies lvl = 51

Salvages = 34
Recipes = 8 (3 uncommon, 1 rare)

Mish set for 6, enemies lvl = 52 (forgot to count salvages & details for recipes)

Recipes = 12

Mish set for 6, enemies lvl = 53

Salvages = 29
Recipes = 8 (1 uncommon)


Total (assuming mob lvl doesn't affect drops): 1512 enemies, 1223,64 min, 288.36 lieut

Expected recipes = 48
Dropped recipes = 36


Even if I forgot to datamine 1 mission, salvages drop seems pretty ok, but we still have that recipes problem.


 

Posted

If there has been a decrease to drop rate, but it hasn't been in any patch notes or mentioned by any Devs, isn't it likely a mistake that will be corrected? Just curious if you guys are under the impression they are trying to sneek something in under the radar.

Also, over the last three days I've played a Claws Brute from 1-25. I started out with missions spawned for 3 and worked my way up to 6 currently. I haven't done any tracking, but before I read this thread I thought drop rates had been increased. My recipes and salvage have been filling up so fast that I have to sell every 2-3 missions.


 

Posted

My latest run on the Wall in Cimerora with lvl 50 Fire/Fire Brute on difficulty 0, team size 1.

796 defeats including 86 LTs and 2 bosses.

14 Pool A recipes and 68 salvage.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDub View Post
If there has been a decrease to drop rate, but it hasn't been in any patch notes or mentioned by any Devs, isn't it likely a mistake that will be corrected? Just curious if you guys are under the impression they are trying to sneek something in under the radar.
We think that recipe drop rates are bugged. We're trying to get enough data together to work out what the new drop rate is and whether it applies in all situations.

Quote:
Also, over the last three days I've played a Claws Brute from 1-25. I started out with missions spawned for 3 and worked my way up to 6 currently. I haven't done any tracking, but before I read this thread I thought drop rates had been increased. My recipes and salvage have been filling up so fast that I have to sell every 2-3 missions.
Have you accounted for the increase in spawn size?

We'd love to see some hard data if you would like to post it. You can use Hero Stats to count defeats etc.