UnSub

Renowned
  • Posts

    646
  • Joined

  1. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ironblade View Post
    But having people on both sides of the law in the same group makes zero sense.
    Vanguard.
  2. I'm looking forward to the devs combining the Cathedral of Pain and the Coming Storm and releasing the Rain of Pain.
  3. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Camper View Post
    I'd like to see some similar data for other 6 year old MMOs so I have something to compare against. For all we know this is the best financial data for a 6 year old MMO in recorded history... or the worst.
    It doesn't matter if this is the best performance of a 6-year old MMO ever (and, given that WoW is turning 6 this year: no, it isn't), the issue is linked to how NCsoft wants CoH/V to perform today and if it is living up to that target. That determines the level of investment going into the title moving forward.
  4. Quote:
    Originally Posted by TonyV View Post
    To paint a truly accurate picture, you'd need to map the numbers against the exchange rate. Ideally, you'd break it out by percentage of players using the different currencies, but even just tying it to the USD instead of the KRW, since most income and expenses are in USD, would be more informative than looking at the raw numbers.
    I haven't yet updated this to reflect the most recently figure, (which is US$2.93m iirc), but I did create this to show the previous history with $US:



    As for what NCsoft expects from CoH/V, it's 19 000 M Won for 2010. At today's exchange rate, that's about US$16.6m. GoRo is going to be a major revenue driver, but the real question is "how major"?

    In wider terms, Aion is doing great business for NCsoft and the main Korean operation is doing very well. That doesn't mean much for CoH/V since NCsoft has probably worn out its patience for unprofitable titles that don't have a chance of recovery.

    Other MMO developers generally don't split their revenue up by game title. I'm waiting to see what Atari's next earning statement looks like and perhaps Turbine's earnings will be more transparent now that they've been bought out. EvE looks like it continues to grow its active sub figures. EA doesn't talk about WAR anymore and servers have been shutting down on that game all over the world.

    EDIT - To add, the $US conversions were calculated using an end-of-period approach, rather than a 3-month exchange rate average. When I did the check on the two methods, the differences were very small at the top level so I used end-of-period.
  5. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Eiko-chan View Post
    IIRC, there wasn't a booster released this past quarter. That would make a difference too, wouldn't it?
    The Martial Arts Booster was released Q4 2009.

    Also, I fully expect Paragon Studios to announce a new title, perhaps before the end of 2010. NCsoft won't let a studio of 50 people continue to work on a title they see having trouble maintaining revenue. The fact Paragon has been hiring (heh, Neal Kettler just updated his LinkedIn profile - congrats to the new Technical Director at Paragon Studios!) and is announcing promotions despite not seeing any growth in CoH/V really points to a new title under development. I don't know what it will be - CoH 2.0 or Positron's Grand New Musical MMO Spectacular - but it is underway.
  6. The NCsoft Q1 2010 financials are out and things don't look good for CoH/V. Q1 covers January to March 2010, which includes the start of the GoRo pre-order offer (March 2, I believe).

    In that period of time, CoH/V earned 3 348 M Won, which roughly translates to about US$2.9m (I've used an end of period exchange rate than an average over the 3 month period, but I don't believe there is much difference between the two results). Sadly, this is the lowest quarterly revenue generated by CoH/V in its history. It's a 13% drop on the previous quarter's earnings, with Q4 2009 being the previous record holder for the lowest revenue generated. In Won terms, it is also about half the revenue generated compared with year-on-year figures.

    It's a result that is probably explained by the lack of content releases in Q1 2010 and that players may have adopted a 'wait and see' approach about Going Rogue.

    DOOOOM comments incoming in 5, 4, 3, 2, ...
  7. I would have like to have been there for the "let's leave forum rep on when when activate the new forums - the players will love it!" discussion.
  8. However, in the sense of the time it took to earn those merits, would NT have been better off under a TF with a random roll system? Would he have earned more than 33 rewards?

    Obviously he would have actually collected the rewards, rather than have them just sitting there, so there is that...
  9. Going back, I think a lot of players are wanting to know some of the important detail around GoRo and expected the Q&A to answer some of that. It didn't and now, 2 - 3 months before launch, players are wondering exactly what they are in for.

    That the GoRo site isn't updated with all the info released from various sources doesn't help either.
  10. Great OP.

    As a question, what is the inf equivalent of a merit based on those specified times? How much inf would I earn on average on a lvl 50 TF per hour that would earn me 20 merits?

    Ultimately merits might be a 'cheaper' way of earning particular in-game rewards, but it has had the impact of creating supply issues through the reduced generation of particular items. Personally I believed that both systems - random rolls AND merits - should have been implemented, so that players had a choice and the overall supply of recipes into the economy was maintained (or even increased).
  11. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dark_Respite View Post
    As for whether my vids bring people in/keep people in, good question. If I knew a way of surveying that with a legitimate sample size, as well as validity and reliability, I'd do it. But I don't.
    You'll have a biased sample, but you can always see if people will comment in various online video locations if they start up a trial to CoH/V after seeing one of your videos. At the very least you could measure your 'value' to PS / CoH/V in terms of total video views.
  12. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Melancton View Post
    *sigh*

    She requested that I not.

    *waves UnSub along*
    *waves back*

    I'm being devil's advocate here.

    Unless Samuraiko announced she is getting paid by PS in a message I missed, what reason does PS have for hiring her? Especially when they have their own internal people to do the same thing and her work is currently free?

    EDIT: No disrespect to Samuraiko intended and I apologise for speaking about her as if she isn't around, but this is more in response to the blanket "Hire Samuraiko!" comments. PS does appear to be hiring predominantly fans of CoH/V, but it is a valid question about what they bring to the table.

    And there is also the broader issue of how much said videos helps to attract or retain players, and if it is worth the investment.
  13. If the purpose of trial accounts is to restrict RMTers from using this mechanism as much as possible, mission achieved.

    If the purpose of trial accounts is to get new players interested in playing CoH/V and giving them a streamlined play experience, I don't think the current trial is anywhere near that.

    Key to this is the issue of trial accounts not being able to start their own teams. I know of several people who signed up to the CoH/V trial with friends (also on trial accounts) who don't last long when they find they can't team with each other without trying to flag down another player to start the team for them.
  14. I've read half the thread, so just some general comments:

    - The in-game advertising on billboards probably doesn't exist any more, but the real question is what advertiser wants to advertise to what amounts to a niche audience through such a mechanism? Given the small handful of ads that appeared to players, I don't think there are particularly many. That BP appeared surprised to even consider this method makes me think that it isn't going to come back and that he isn't in favour of it.

    - Things that CoH/V already has done: advertised in comics, released books, released a card game, almost released an RPG, plus all the usual online channels (banner ads, site promotions, social networks, etc). Just a reminder.

    - Why pay Samuraiko to do the CoH/V videos when she currently does them for free and CoH/V already gains all benefits from them? If they are helping to bring people to CoH/V (and I don't think they are, as fun as they may be for the forum population) then Paragon Studios is already getting all the benefits at $0 down. I'd suggest that BP / marketing could certainly be promoting the videos more - Massively.com and the like always want content - but it is an open question about the value that any kind of online video provides to a game. Some boost interest immensely (and these are often the out-of-game CGI promos, not in-game footage), but the vast majority would have no notable impact at all.

    - A lot of the suggestions in this thread help promote awareness of CoH/V, but is only a small part of it. The key part is promoting trial of CoH/V and here is where I'll make a suggestion: change the limits on trial accounts so that they can START THEIR OWN TEAMS. The trial player who logs in with a trialling friend only to find that they can't even team up is a pair of triallists who don't hang around long. For anyone who says, "WoW does it that way," CoH/V isn't WoW.

    So, there is some data for you BP: find out how the conversion rate on trial accounts before the restrictions came in vs after them. Wash the data if possible to take out gold farmer effects and see what you can do to take in other time-based effects. I've got a strong hunch that the trial restrictions had a very negative impact on this conversion rate by presenting CoH/V in such a limited way to first-time players.
  15. UnSub

    CoH2 registered?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Coyote_Seven View Post
    If CoH2 allowed veteran players of CoH to move their characters over, I think that would be another first in a line of firsts for the City of Heroes/Villians games.

    At least, I've never heard of such a thing happening before.
    Problem is, of course, is that day one you've have 150K+ players with characters at max level, complaining they have no content to play.

    The devs would want to wait the traditional 5 days before they got into that situation with CoH2.
  16. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ice_Wall View Post
    Seriously though, good post. Though I had a feeling NCSoft wouldn't be putting all this money into this game, and hiring all these people, if the game wasn't showing some signs that it could make some money. If it were losing players right and left, they would not be putting this much money into GR etc.
    Paragon Studios is gearing up on its new MMO though. That's part of NCsoft's increased resources into PS and also behind some of the recent team changes.

    Those Q4 figures came out and the trend continues downwards for CoH/V in terms of quarterly revenue. In fact, Q4 2009 returned the smallest revenue amount in CoH/V's history.

    What was more interesting to me is that NCsoft budgeted CoH/V to make less revenue in 2010 than it did in 2009. CoH/V didn't hit its revenue target in 2009, and yet NCsoft has given them an even lower target to reach in 2010. To me, that doesn't say NCsoft is confident in CoH/V's ability to keep generating the kind of revenue they used to, even with GR launching. It is possible that Paragon Studios got some soft numbers past NCsoft's accounts team, but telling your bosses you are going to be earning less revenue than you did in the past is generally a hard thing to do.

    I've covered some of this here. Looking forward to seeing the Q1 2010 figures to see how revenue has moved since then.
  17. Agree - the devs never said it is harder to redevelop old zones, just that it takes just as much time to do that as create a new zone.

    To slightly disagree with Dr Mechano, CoH has enough zones and definitely has some that need a revamp (all untouched hazard zones, for instance) while CoV really needs some new zones to help fill it out more (and perhaps provide another story outside of the 'Destined One' meta-story).
  18. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Umbral View Post
    Wasn't there something release some time ago (~2-3 years) that showed that CoX had done something incredibly weird to the normal population curve and actually generated an increase in population without releasing a major expansion? This was before AE but after CoV so there wasn't really anything you could explain as a "major expansion" to explain the growth (minor expansions like the Issues that CoX receives or the dungeon/raid additions that WoW gets are designed more to keep current players playing rather than bring in new players). I recall a number of analysts looking at it and going "whu?"
    CoH managed to grow its population post-launch with the free content (i.e. Issues) they were putting out, which wasn't industry standard at the time (nor was it the first MMO to do so, but it did stand out because of it).

    In today's market, such free content releases are considered standard, so it isn't something that differentiates CoH/V anymore.

    CoH/V active subscriber numbers haven't grown in player size since the post-CoV launch bump though.
  19. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Evilanna View Post
    Positron, lead for CoH leaves to work on CoH endgame, and other unnamed projects. Ken Morse, art lead for CoH is replaced while he also goes to work on other projects...

    You heard it here first folks! Paragon Studios is officially working on City of Heroes 2!
    You're missing that Vince “Dark Watcher” D’Amelio is also now working on 'a variety of initiatives' within Paragon Studios.

    Paragon Studios are working on another MMO (or: another way to generate revenue, but I'm pretty certain that is a new MMO), no doubt.

    I'd wondered if Morse had officially been given the Paragon Studios Lead Concept Artist position that is working on Paragon Studio's next MMO, but it is still there, so maybe he has moved to Art Lead on that project in a separate position.
  20. Here is a question for WW: what are your plans for the non-NA community? You might not control marketing and distribution, but you certainly should have some idea of what you want to do game-wise for those outside of NA.

    If the answer is: same thing we've always done, that's fine because it is an answer, but then the answer is 'not much'. I fully understand that your core audience is in NA, but there is definitely a perception that non-NA regions are being left to wither.

    Not having boxes on shelves certainly makes it appear that NCsoft is happy to ignore CoH/V players outside of the US.
  21. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Castle View Post
    Sunstorm worked on Electric Control as a training exercise when he first started working for us. The set is currently sitting in the spreadsheet I have set aside for such things. It was a good effort, but by no means ready for release, and there hasn't been any announcement of us working on the set at all.

    I'm not ruling out Electrical Control as a set, but it is only one of several sets that are in the wings waiting for the thumbs up to proceed with.
    So... Sunstorm joined the forums 10 July 2008, which may or may not be when he actually joined the CoH dev team. Assuming that was the starting date and that some time was spent developing Electric Control, it means that this powerset has been sitting in the spreadsheets for probably over 12 months.

    Makes sense - I'm sure there are a ton of hypothetical power options that sit in spreadsheets, from a "I wonder what this would look like?" to the "powersets still waiting to be signed off on".

    Plus 'sitting in the spreadsheet' obviously says nothing for things like animation development. And that Sunstorm is now no longer a red name (so I guess he isn't looking after bases anymore either) is also interesting info.
  22. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow View Post
    So, what? EU vs. US is the new CoV vs. CoH? I live in Europe, myself, and if "your" future is bleak as EU version players, it's only because the EU version of the game in general was an incredibly unnecessary and frankly STUPID idea. Personally, I'd expect to see both sets of servers opened up to each other in the near future.

    P.S. I still subscribe to the US version of the game.
    The EU version of CoH/V was set up at a time when NCsoft still was looking to have a development and operations presence in Europe. Having CS staff on more appropriate local times, together with specific language servers, was likely considered a good option at the time.

    Similarly for the Korean City of Hero decisions, I'd expect.
  23. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Coyote_Seven View Post
    They must have hired people who used to work for Commodore's marketing department.
    Are you keeping up with the Commodore? Because the Commodore is keeping up with YOU.
  24. "I can't afford to find $15 a month" is only the completely true reason in a very small proportion of the population who are truly living pay cheque to pay cheque. Most people who make those kind of comments likely can't justify the cost in terms of the value they get back from CoH/V. It's also a kind way of saying, "I'm just not that into you."

    Personally CoH/V could probably drop its price down to $9.99 a month and attract some more players back that way, but I couldn't guarantee that the number of returning players would match the loss in revenue as it currently stands.
  25. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Olantern View Post
    I don't really see any of these as problems with the game's design. All of them are problems that anything six years old with a loyal fan base will develop. It's almost as if the game is becoming a victim of its own successes.
    CoH/V's issue is one of inertia - it is what it is and that path has been continuing forward, slowly losing active accounts. The last major player increase came with CoV, but the current marketing of GoRo makes me think that we will be seeing a much more limited expansion so we shouldn't expect the same kind of active account bounce.

    A lot of recent changes have been popular with the existing player base - power colour customisation, MA / AE - but it hasn't drawn that many players back. I fully appreciate the effort that went into such systems, but they aren't draw cards for new players.

    Ultimately the same issues that CoH was criticised for when it launched exist today: repetitive maps, nothing really to do but combat and no real variety to the game. Some of the more interesting, more involving content appears in later updates, but it hasn't been pulled through to the earlier stages of the game - the very time when it is important to hit the new players and keep them interested.

    The biggest problem with CoH/V is that it isn't releasing content that is attracting new players while also retaining the existing ones. It isn't growing in terms of active account terms. Sadly I don't think War Witch will be given the resources to turn that around and will have to come up with something inspired to likely hold steady when DCUO launches (assuming that SOE doesn't totally drop the ball... and given the amount of focus they put into learning from CoH/V, I don't think they will). Plus with Paragon Studios working on their next MMO, the focus of the studio will shift away from building CoH/V towards building the new title.

    I'm waiting for GoRo to wow me, but the currently released info lacks features to get that excited about right now. Perhaps there will be a close-to-release info blitz, but that also runs the risk of those new features being buried by other news, so potential players don't hear about it.