NCSoft denied attempts at offers


Agent White

 

Posted

Majority - a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set's elements.

Nexon is a major share holder, the largest share holder but in terms of corporate ownership, not a majority, period. Also interesting is where Nexon got the stock. They didn't buy it off the market or directly from the company but it was from the CEO's personal holdings of which he sold roughly 60% of to Nexon. NCSoft didn't see a penny from this it was the CEO's personal payday.

The quarterly loss wasn't large. Yes it was the first in a very long time, longer than 8 years at least and it was a continuation of decreasing profits over the last several quarters.

Now factor in that the NA and EU regions revenues have decreased by 60% from 2009 to 2011 compared with an 8% growth in Asia. In the first half of 2012 NA and EU revenues dropped 30% from the first half of 2011 where Asia dropped only 10%. So where would you cut? What markets would you concentrate on? This isn't rocket surgery here.

Blade and Soul was already done and was released at the end of Q2. Localizing it to NA and EU is a lot less expensive than developing a new game. Guild Wars 2 was in the final stages of Beta and from all accounts was getting very positive revues. So those two games are off the table because they are done or nearly done and I imagine they would like to see revenues from both of them to offset any development costs.

WildStar is a still a few years away but is under the main offices watchful eye, there may also be politics involved depending who in the main office is backing it. That leaves Paragon Studio and CoH. It's an old title and paid back it's development costs years ago. It didn't even get out of beta in Korea so revenue growth by spreading the game into Asia is already a no go. It's revenues in NA and EU have been decreasing over the years and F2P didn't reinvigorate them.

As for selling it off. First NCSoft had to get their people to come up with a fair market value, for their shareholder's sake, it's sort of required. They may have felt it wasn't worth the cost to compute a fair price. Also besides the game assets we are also talking about the player database, which are customers. One of the most valuable assets a company has is a list of their customers. No business wants to sell off their customer list to a direct competitor. They would likely charge per head for that information and we're talking everyone who ever played or signed up for a demo. They would have to untangle that information from the master accounts and still maintain the links to the player database of characters and purchased items from the store.

But likely none of the offers reached a point that NCSoft would go ahead with the assessment of what the property was worth and it would likely not be finished before the game was shut down. And if a price was reached, the sale made and the game saved, the game would be without any of the existing developers, the new owners would have to rebuild a staff from scratch to maintain the game.

Three months is just to short of a period a time to build a relationship with NCSoft so they would even consider an offer for the game. You can't just show up in their lobby with a $25 million dollar bank check and have them take you seriously.


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Tempus unum hominem manet

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post
Majority - a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set's elements.

Nexon is a major share holder, the largest share holder but in terms of corporate ownership, not a majority, period. Also interesting is where Nexon got the stock. They didn't buy it off the market or directly from the company but it was from the CEO's personal holdings of which he sold roughly 60% of to Nexon. NCSoft didn't see a penny from this it was the CEO's personal payday.

The quarterly loss wasn't large. Yes it was the first in a very long time, longer than 8 years at least and it was a continuation of decreasing profits over the last several quarters.

Now factor in that the NA and EU regions revenues have decreased by 60% from 2009 to 2011 (and the first half of 2012 shows the revenues falling even more) compared with an 8% growth in Asia. In the first half of 2012 NA and EU revenues dropped 30% from the first half of 2011 where Asia dropped only 10%. So where would you cut? What markets would you concentrate on? This isn't rocket surgery here.

Blade and Soul was already done and was released at the end of Q2. Localizing it to NA and EU is a lot less expensive than developing a new game. Guild Wars 2 was in the final stages of Beta and from all accounts was getting very positive revues. So those two games are off the table because they are done or nearly done and I imagine they would like to see revenues from both of them to offset any development costs.

WildStar is a still a few years away but is under main offices watchful eye, there may also be politics involved depending who in the main office is backing it. That leaves Paragon Studio and CoH. It's an old title. and paid back it's development costs years ago. It didn't even get out of beta in Korea so revenue growth by spreading the game into those regions are doubtful. It's revenues in NA and EU have been decreasing over the years and F2P didn't reinvigorate them.

As for selling it off. First NCSoft had to get their people to come up with a fair market value, for their shareholder's sake, it's sort of required. They may have felt it wasn't worth the cost to compute a fair price. Also besides the game assets we are also talking about the player database, which are customers. One of the most valuable assets a company has is a list of their customers. No business wants to sell off their customer list to a direct competitor. They would likely charge per head for that information and we're talking everyone who ever played or signed up for a demo. They would have to untangle that information from the master accounts and still maintain the links to the player database of characters and purchased items from the store.

But likely none of the offers reached a point that NCSoft would then do an assessment of what the property was worth and it would likely not be finished before the game was shut down. And if a price was reached, the sale made and the game saved, the game would be without any of the existing developers, the new owners would have to rebuild a staff to maintain the game. Three months is just to short of a period a time to build a relationship with NCSoft so they would even consider an offer for the game. You can't just show up in their lobby with a $25 million dollar bank check and have them take you seriously.
basically and well said.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post

Blade and Soul was already done and was released at the end of Q2. Localizing it to NA and EU is a lot less expensive than developing a new game. Guild Wars 2 was in the final stages of Beta and from all accounts was getting very positive revues. So those two games are off the table because they are done or nearly done and I imagine they would like to see revenues from both of them to offset any development costs.

WildStar is a still a few years away but is under the main offices watchful eye, there may also be politics involved depending who in the main office is backing it. That leaves Paragon Studio and CoH.
I might be missing something here, but what about Lineage II? Isn't that game just as old as COH? Also, it seems like it would have the same market as GW2 since it's essentially an older variation of the same generic formula, based on what I know.


 

Posted

Father Xmas, in a widely held corporation, 15% ownership is a LOT of power. No, they couldn't push something through that the other shareholders opposed, but they can easily provide leadership to a lot of the others. Plus, if it was a sale directly from the President - there's almost certainly more of the story there, definitely representations made about how the company is going and perhaps setting the stage for a merger or forms of joint operations. So if Nexon is unhappy, they can pull together other unhappy shareholders, perhaps can sue the President based on promises made, and pull out of future deals. They've got a lot of pull. Enough to say "do something significant" and make it happen.

And the way it was done gives the impression of a "do it now" emergency action. I've seen projects under fiscal pressure. Deadlines get delayed, things change to focus more on immediate money than long term good, lots of stress and everyone in the company knows. From everything we've heard, this was as big of a shock to the people of Paragon Studios as the players. This was a rush decision to close the studio, not a long "we're not happy with the numbers coming from this department".

As for your analysis of selling it off - when it comes to putting a fair value on something, you can look at what value you'll get out of it in the future, or what you can sell it for. When they put a game on a shelf, the use value is zero. The price of what you can sell it for is based on what people is offering, and you'll never know what people offer unless you talk to them. There are "standard" valuations based on run rates (yearly income) to use as a basis, for a distressed property a 1 or 2 year run rate is a pretty good price to aim for.

But what you've just made is the case for "eh, to hell with it, it's on the shelf and it'll stay there". If that's true, that makes their statement even more of a lie and more of an insult to the players.


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Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post
Also interesting is where Nexon got the stock. They didn't buy it off the market or directly from the company but it was from the CEO's personal holdings of which he sold roughly 60% of to Nexon.
Back in 2005, NCSoft CEO and founder Taek-jin Kim gave away 3.84% of his stock to his then wife for agreeing to a divorce. He still owned 24.69% of his company's stock in June 2012 when he elected to sell 14.7% at below market price to Nexon. This leaves him with just 9.9% of his own company's stock, meaning Nexon's CEO has a greater say in NCSoft's affairs than Taek-jin Kim now does.

So you can understand why Korean business news refers to this as a takeover of NCSoft by Nexon. Basically, by selling 2/3 of his own say in NCSoft's affairs to his largest rival, Kim has (in the eyes of the Korean business world) effectively handed over the reins of NCSoft to Nexon.

Remember, you're talking about a nation here where there are two currencies : cash, and 'face'. How much face do you lose by selling 2/3 of your power to a rival I wonder? It all depends on what you believe your company will gain in return. If you've gambled correctly, you haven't lost face - you've gained it instead.

This goes beyond simple graphs and numbers on a balance sheet. We're talking here about two companies who've joined forces to pursue a new dream of 'Teh Shiny', the next big thing, online gaming on smartphones funded by microtransactions, etc etc. And I'm afraid an 8 year old subscription PC game (albeit a still profitable one) just didn't fit into that hand-in-hand corporate giant honeymoon future world view.

Basically, we're just collateral damage to them. We're the past. Something to be buried and remembered only by a handful of selected photos in a joint corporate photo album.

I believe it was never their intention to sell the IP. If the IP for CoH was in someone else's hands, that would put a smear on their happy photo album of Glories Past. And now they want everything to stay quiet until Nov 30th, because the sooner CoH is buried, the sooner they can leave flowers on its grave, take one final photo for the Happy Corporate Album, and then skip happily into their i-device future together.

A crazy notion?
I guess time will tell on that one...


 

Posted

City of Heroes was the little MMO that could.

First Jack tried to kill CoH to eliminate the competition for his next (far, far crummier) MMO, Champions Online. Remember how Cryptic went completely silent for like an entire year after CoV's launch?

Then NCSoft just goes out to kill CoH because they want more resources to their generic soulless korean pvp grinders. If Nexon gets involved, their pay2win generic soulless korean pvp grinders.

If they want to focus on those then more power to 'em. I'm supporting SOE (the horror) because DCUO > CO. And that Marvel MMO sure doesn't look all that good--I can already imagine the broadcasts. "glf Wolverine dps pst!" "group looking for Hulk to tank Magneto NO NO IRON MAN TANKS MAGNETO PWNS IRON MAN U NUBS HIS SUIT IS MADE OF METAL!"

I jus wanna make my own heroes--not play preexisting IPs. Working next to the big boys was the way to do it. Save "you are the big boy" for the single player games.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iannis View Post
Remember how Cryptic went completely silent for like an entire year after CoV's launch?
No, I don't recall this silence at all. I seem to recall some discourse on the upcoming (at the time) level cap increase and Patron powers, at the very least. I believe I saw them at GenCon that year as well.


Goodbye may seem forever
Farewell is like the end
But in my heart's the memory
And there you'll always be
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Posted

I understand. People want someone to blame, someone to point a finger at. But the suggestion that Nexon had it out for Paragon or City of Heroes specifically or western regions makes no sense. What did we do to them?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turjan View Post
Back in 2005, NCSoft CEO and founder Taek-jin Kim gave away 3.84% of his stock to his then wife for agreeing to a divorce. He still owned 24.69% of his company's stock in June 2012 when he elected to sell 14.7% at below market price to Nexon. This leaves him with just 9.9% of his own company's stock, meaning Nexon's CEO has a greater say in NCSoft's affairs than Taek-jin Kim now does.
It may have been below market price but not by a lot. Nexon's press release about the sale was dated June 8th at 250,000 KrW in cash a share (not sure if it was released after trading ended for the week or at the start of the trading day). NCSoft's stock ranged between 239000 to 251500 (close at 250000) on the 5th, 6th was a holiday, 257500 to 272500 (close at 267000) on the 7th and 262000 to 272000 (close at 268000) on the 8th. So the discount, if at all, depends on when the sale actually took place.

And Nexon's CEO isn't on NCSoft's board of directors, Taek-jin Kim still is Chairman of the Board and CEO. Nexon doesn't have any members on the board either unless you are implying they now own Taek-jin Kim and he is simply their puppet now.

It's true that both companies are looking to smartphone gaming as the next frontier. You only need to look at the companies that Nexon and NCSoft have acquired over the last year. I think they decided until someone comes up with a formula that works, it's better to work together to find that formula than let someone else find it first.


Father Xmas - Level 50 Ice/Ice Tanker - Victory
$725 and $1350 parts lists --- My guide to computer components

Tempus unum hominem manet

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pebblebrook View Post
Side request to UnSub: In that linked blog, you said you copy/pasted dev comments but i don't see a link for the original source.

Do you still have that link? Would like it even if it's a dead one, can always try using internet archive.

Thanks in advance.
The first set of comments I didn't link because the ex-CoH/V developer was answering questions on a general forum and I didn't want him to be swamped by requests. (I did ask permission to repost his comments to my blog.) If you are good enough at Google, you'll find it... plus once CoH/V is sunset for good I'll update it with the "who".

GadgetDon - Also, on the whole loss front, the key issue was rising costs. NCsoft was looking to cut costs to bring things back to profitability.

TwoHeadedBoy - Lineage II still makes very good money in Korea. So does Lineage, for that matter. NCsoft did shut down the US servers for Lineage earlier this year though.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post
I understand. People want someone to blame, someone to point a finger at. But the suggestion that Nexon had it out for Paragon or City of Heroes specifically or western regions makes no sense. What did we do to them?
Ah no, there's the weird thing see? Nexon have a long standing tradition of buying developers and then marketing their games (because Nexon's record with inhouse games is less than stellar). So to me, it would make far more sense for NCSoft to simply hand over CoH intact to be run by Nexon as a going concern. Nexon are, after all, the pioneers in the west of the F2P microtransaction business model...a model that was introduced to CoH 6 months before the Nexon/NCSoft share deal. And in a recent interview for Forbes, the CEO of Nexon US basically says to the US MMO market "bring it on!" :-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Min Kim in Forbes interview Oct 5th
Q.How do you see Nexon tackling the growing number of free-to-play games like HAWKEN, Firefall, Warface and Marvel Heroes that are targeting core gamers?

A.The more the merrier. I’m not sure why everyone thinks of this business as a zero sum game. Since founding Nexon America in 2006, I have always said that my interest was to entice as many developers and games into the fray as possible. It’s hard to have a market when it’s just us.
...so when NCSoft have an active IP with a built in playerbase of the very 'core gamers' Nexon is after, why would either of the two companies want it killed off? Like I say, I don't think the reason is one of business, I suspect it's image. CoH is old and not shiny enough for either Nexon or NCSoft any more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Xmas View Post
And Nexon's CEO isn't on NCSoft's board of directors, Taek-jin Kim still is Chairman of the Board and CEO. Nexon doesn't have any members on the board either unless you are implying they now own Taek-jin Kim and he is simply their puppet now.
Nope, if TJKim's a puppet, it's only because he's willingly made himself into one, which I doubt. But make no mistake, this is a polite merger of the two companies (if anything corporate can be called 'polite'). They come from different backgrounds (NCSoft is primarily a creator of long development MMOs...with, as many would agree, woeful communication skills, and Nexon excels at marketing and publishing, primarily other company's games) so the two believe they can work synergistically on future projects centred mainly around smartphones.

Quote:
It's true that both companies are looking to smartphone gaming as the next frontier. You only need to look at the companies that Nexon and NCSoft have acquired over the last year. I think they decided until someone comes up with a formula that works, it's better to work together to find that formula than let someone else find it first.
Yep, bang on right - as recently as Oct 1st, Nexon announced their acquisition of 'gloops' a Japanese mobile game developer. And as you say, they want to come up with a winning formula together.

It's still a puzzle though...the more I read about Nexon and NCSoft's endeavours over the last couple of years, the more logic I can see for keeping City of Heroes alive rather than killing it off - which is why I say the only logical reason I can find for closing our game is "it's yesterday man, we're all about TOMORROW!" ...which is kinda sad really, not to mention insulting to us all.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by GadgetDon View Post
And the way it was done gives the impression of a "do it now" emergency action. I've seen projects under fiscal pressure. Deadlines get delayed, things change to focus more on immediate money than long term good, lots of stress and everyone in the company knows. From everything we've heard, this was as big of a shock to the people of Paragon Studios as the players. This was a rush decision to close the studio, not a long "we're not happy with the numbers coming from this department".
The thing i'm still wrestling with about that notion of an emergency action is what specifically was the emergency.

I suppose that big dip in their operating profit may be it but that was mostly from deliberate actions on their part when they decided to spend millions on acquisitions and marketing for their upcoming games, not from something out of their control that they panicked enough to hit the jettison button.

Perhaps the revenue dip of Aion from 53 bil won to 36bil may have triggered that panic but their total revenue for all games overall increased from 126 billion won to about 130 billion. And they were fully expecting B&S and GW2 to bump their earnings up the very next quarter.

Well the 3Q numbers aren't due out for several more weeks so maybe that will shed better light on it.


Now the short notice to Paragon, that does seem like a head-scratcher...did absolutely no one including the execs knew or have any inkling? That's still questionable.

I suppose it's possible there's a non-financial reason for it but i don't have any direct info that points to that direction. So far, i have more reason to lean towards a directly financial motive than a non-financial or indirect one (CoX as collateral damage outside its influence).

Hopefully more information surfaces.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turjan View Post
...so when NCSoft have an active IP with a built in playerbase of the very 'core gamers' Nexon is after, why would either of the two companies want it killed off? Like I say, I don't think the reason is one of business, I suspect it's image. CoH is old and not shiny enough for either Nexon or NCSoft any more.
Yes, Nexon does seem to want to acquire IPs or share expertise in making big mmos rather than killing them. That's sort of mentioned in their investor letter...well the acquiring part, no mention of any killing.

And if its image is the problem, well if they got their hands on CoX, that image could be improved with say a CoX sequel instead of a shut down? Unless they didn't think Paragon could do that well enough...then again, they could assign it to another studio.

Still too many questions when using that angle than i would like.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turjan View Post
It's still a puzzle though...the more I read about Nexon and NCSoft's endeavours over the last couple of years, the more logic I can see for keeping City of Heroes alive rather than killing it off - which is why I say the only logical reason I can find for closing our game is "it's yesterday man, we're all about TOMORROW!" ...which is kinda sad really, not to mention insulting to us all.
I agree, It's still one of the funnest things i've ever played, even if it's somewhat empty.

Funny thing is, City of heroes can be a very secretly complex game, And does things no other MMO has ever done or tried to do (Well)

Name one other MMO where you felt as badass as a ss/fire brute? NAME IT NOW!


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkBlaster_NA View Post
I agree, It's still one of the funnest things i've ever played, even if it's somewhat empty.

Funny thing is, City of heroes can be a very secretly complex game, And does things no other MMO has ever done or tried to do (Well)

Name one other MMO where you felt as badass as a ss/fire brute? NAME IT NOW!
hmmm, dont think many other games have a fire armor equivalent. None that I can think of.


-Female Player-
Quote:
Originally Posted by mauk2 View Post
Evil_Legacy became one of my favorite posters with two words.
"Kick Rocks."
I laffed so hard. Never change, E_L!

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkBlaster_NA View Post
Name one other MMO where you felt as badass as a ss/fire brute? NAME IT NOW!
My Master Dancer/Master Musician/Master Entertainer from SWG.

There wasn't a dance or song I couldn't do!


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkBlaster_NA View Post
Name one other MMO where you felt as badass as a ss/fire brute? NAME IT NOW!
I never felt "badass" as a brute. I constantly felt like a soon-to-be-smear-on-the-ground, though.


Goodbye may seem forever
Farewell is like the end
But in my heart's the memory
And there you'll always be
-- The Fox and the Hound