Random is Random
Global @StarGeek
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Short answer... Random is random.
Less short answer.
If it was tweaked (presumably down, from your post) you'd have heard the screams and shouts far and wide, if it had been announced.
If it was a stealth reduction, nobody likely would have enough data at this point to be able to answer you in any meaningfully helpful way. So if you suspect it isn't just the nature of randomness, you'll need to start diligently collecting data now, and try to enlist others to do the same.
ok i started a farm cuz i wanted to know if something was going on ... it has been running for 17 hours so far with no drops. Gotta be something going on, I have killed the guy hundreds of times.
Random is still Random
Global @StarGeek
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No, it doesn't. I've seen a farm go longer than that with no drops. It happens.
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Originally Posted by Superman0207
ok i started a farm cuz i wanted to know if something was going on ... it has been running for 17 hours so far with no drops. Gotta be something going on,
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The Mentor Project
X% chance to drop doesn't mean "you will get a drop X% of the time". It means "every kill has X% chance to drop something, and it doesn't matter what the last 239478611673285 kills you've made have been."
Random is random. Drops are distinct, separate events every time they are rolled.
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Originally Posted by Dispari
I don't know why Dink thinks she's not as sexy as Jay was. In 5 posts she's already upstaged his entire career.
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Ok fair enough .... just never gone 24 straight hours of running a farm without a drop. Seems improbable
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So let's take a look at the odds here. You're not going to get a drop when you kill someone while the person is on your defeat list. That's a 5 minute timer (if you get a drop, there's a 10 minute timer before you can get another one). So, it you time it perfectly that you get your kill the moment the timer is up, the maximum number of kills that a drop is available in a 24 hour period is 60 minutes/5 minutes = 12 chances per hour * 24 hours = 288. So at best you've had 288 rolls at what I've heard is a 1 in several thousand chance. You haven't even hit a valid statistical sampling, much less enough to decide it's improbable.|
Originally Posted by Superman0207
Ok fair enough .... just never gone 24 straight hours of running a farm without a drop. Seems improbable
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Having said all that, I once had 2 PvP drops in a 15 minute period. Blew me away (though they weren't the good ones).
So, as I said. Random is still random.
Global @StarGeek
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Nope. In the redname discussions about MARTy, they said that you'd get notification in your rewards window if you were triggering MARTy. They also said that it would be impossible to trigger MARTy through normal gameplay (and implied that that included farming). MARTy is only there to block exploits, like the old Bullbe and Meow farms in AE.
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Originally Posted by SmegHead
Can you say Marty?
Might be... |
@Roderick
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I find "1 in several thousand" hard to believe. An overnight farm usually yields something, which leads me to believe it's more on the order of 1 in a hundred. Please note I'm only getting at sense of scale, nothing precise, whether it's 1/200, 1/128 or 1/99. The pvp farmers I know seem to get something overnight. Even my own experience from my 1 week of pvp farming, before I it hit me what a sad activity this was, I'd get multiple drops per overnight session.
| . So at best you've had 288 rolls at what I've heard is a 1 in several thousand chance. You haven't even hit a valid statistical sampling, much less enough to decide it's improbable. |
Global = Hedgefund (or some derivation thereof)
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Yeah, one in a hundred is the value that I've seen given by people before. And, while it's a small sample, when I was rep farming for the badges a while back, I got four IOs from ~400 rep valid kills. (Slightly over, because it took me a few days to get the badges.)
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Originally Posted by Deacon_NA
I find "1 in several thousand" hard to believe. An overnight farm usually yields something, which leads me to believe it's more on the order of 1 in a hundred. Please note I'm only getting at sense of scale, nothing precise, whether it's 1/200, 1/128 or 1/99. The pvp farmers I know seem to get something overnight. Even my own experience from my 1 week of pvp farming, before I it hit me what a sad activity this was, I'd get multiple drops per overnight session.
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Defiant @Grouchybeast
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Yes, it does. Having that happen is not a common occurrence. However, if, for example, there were 1000 people farming, you'd be pretty much guaranteed for some of them to have that happen.|
Originally Posted by Superman0207
Ok fair enough .... just never gone 24 straight hours of running a farm without a drop. Seems improbable
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Originally Posted by SmegHead
Can you say Marty?
Might be... |
Firstly, MARTY is based on RATE of rewards. Getting a single PvP IO in a day is too much? Hardly.
Secondly, PvP farming is still working fine.
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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But once you get enough randoms, "random" starts to look an awful lot like "constant rate". For example, after 10,000 attacks, it's virtually certain that you'll be within 100 hits of 9,500 total hits (ignoring the streakbreaker).|
Originally Posted by StarGeek
Random is still Random
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That said, 17 hours of farming isn't anywhere near enough randoms. Assuming perfect kill timing and a 1% drop rate, the odds of going 17 hours without a drop are 12.9%.
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Originally Posted by Superman0207
ok i started a farm cuz i wanted to know if something was going on ... it has been running for 17 hours so far with no drops. Gotta be something going on, I have killed the guy hundreds of times.
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Originally Posted by Superman0207
Ok fair enough .... just never gone 24 straight hours of running a farm without a drop. Seems improbable
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
Has there been a change in this drop rate recently? Like in the last 2 or 3 months? I used to get one maybe 2 a night playing PVP. But I have played almost 6 hours a night for the last 3 nights and I haven't gotten a single one!