Dark Astoria Component Drop Rates

Hello everyone! This thread is porting over data on the drop rates for incarnate components in the Dark Astoria arcs from the Issue 22 Beta forums.

A very brief overview:

1. The purpose here is to determine what the exact drop percentages are for each of the "rarities" of incarnate component in the Dark Astoria arcs.

2. I've got a spreadsheet that I use to track data on the drop rates, and tabulate a bunch of statistics regarding the rate at which incarnates progress using the "solo path" in Dark Astoria.

3. I get the data for the spreadsheet (and this thread) by people posting what component drops they get at the end of dark astoria arcs. It's simple - just post what you're getting from drops, and I incorporate the data in my spreadsheet. Every so often, I post in the thread with updated information on where the drop rates currently stand. For me, my posts serve as 'bookmarks' - I assume posts above my updates have been accounted for, and posts below my latest update still need to be added to my data.

4. In the beta thread, our conclusion was there was no difference in drop rates for "first time runthroughs" of each arc (which were called "first runs"), versus "flashback" runs. So my posted data includes both. I do separately track results from flashbacks alone, although they are not posted. That is so that, in theory, I could separate "first runs" from "flashbacks" - although that'd be a bit dubious at this point. If you post drop results, and specify "first run" or "flashback", I track the data accordingly. If you post drop results and don't specify, I treat them as "first runs."

5. You're welcome to tell me what arc you ran for each result, but I don't actually keep track of that anywhere.

6. You're welcome to tell me about merit roll results, but I don't actually keep track of that anywhere.

7. Discussions do crop up regarding "how good" or "how bad" the drop tables are, and how to improve things - that's to be expected. But my number one focus is to track exactly what the component drop rates are.

And now, here are the results (so far) exactly as they stood when I "closed down" the Beta version of the thread:

565 rolls total:

422 Commons (74.7%)
111 Uncommons (19.6%)
26 Rares (4.6%)
6 Very Rare (1.1%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 56.81
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 50.02
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 47.58

Note: I'll be reserving the next few posts to further explain things, and, well, just in case I need them for something.

I occasionally do get asked this, so I may as well come right out and answer:

"What are those 'incarnate progress' numbers?"

All incarnate components and powers can be assigned a "value" based on the system's most basic currency: threads. A component (or power's) value is simply the number of threads you'd need to craft that component (or power).

Components:
Common = 20 threads
Uncommon = 60 threads
Rare = 340 threads
Very rare = 1,360 threads

Powers:
Common = 60 threads
Uncommon = 100 threads from a Common (160 from scratch)
Rare = 380 threads from an Uncommon (540 from scratch)
Very Rare = 1,940 threads from the 1st Rare in the tree (2,480 threads from scratch)

"Incarnate Progress" represents, therefore, how many "threads" of progress the average roll on the component table alone is giving you, based on the current drop rates. Note that it is average progress! You pick a component, and get an uncommon, that was 60 threads of progress. You get a rare, that was 340 threads of progress. You get a common, that was 20 threads of progress (but see below). But after a lot of rolls on the table, that's about what you're average progress per roll would have been.

Okay, so what is this whole thing about Tier 3 and Tier 4 progress?

Well, here's the thing: Common components are unique in that they are the one type that cannot be directly upgraded to make a higher "rarity" component. If you've got a common, and you don't need it, you can't use it as part of an upgrade recipe - your only choice is to break it down into 4 threads, which gives a common you have no use for a "progress value" of 4 threads, not 20.

Now, in crafting your way up to a Rare power (from scratch), you're going to ultimately need 7 commons and 1 rare. So as long as the drop tables are giving you no more than 7 commons for every rare you get, each common is worth it's full "progress value" of 20 threads.

But any commons above that 7:1 ratio aren't helping you get that Rare power, and are therefore only worth 4 threads of "progress."

You can do a similar calculation for a Very Rare power: as long a the drop tables give you 16 commons for each very rare (on average), each common is "needed" and worth it's value of 20 threads. But commons that drive the common to very rare ratio higher are not getting you any closer to your Very Rare power (beyond breaking them down into 4 threads and using them in one of the 'higher rarity' recipies).

The Average Thread Value (Tier 3) is giving you the "average progress" of each roll if your goal is to go for a Tier 3 (Rare) power, taking into account the fact that commons beyond the 7:1 common to rare ratio are only worth 4 threads of progress, not 20.

Likewise, the Average Thread Value (Tier 4) is "average progress" for each roll, taking into account commons beyond the 16:1 common to very rare ratio are only worth 4 threads of progress.

In this section I'll track what the current ratios are (relative to rare and very rare components) - literally, how many commons and uncommon the table produces per rare, long term. And how many common, uncommon, and rares the table produces per very rare, long term. This information is useful when trying to determine a long-term strategy for building a character's incarnate abilities via the solo path.

The information here is updated, but only very rarely (every few weeks), and only if current statistics I've gathered have significantly changed what the ratios are.

The current ratios are:

Relative to rares (Tier 3): 16.63 commons : 4.03 uncommons : 1 rare
To build up to a Tier 3 power: 7 commons : 1 uncommon : 1 rare

Because 4 uncommons (+100 threads) builds a rare, we can think of 3.03 uncommons (above what you need) as 0.75 rares, so the adjusted ratio of commons to rares is:
9.5 commons: 1 rare.

So the tables "overproduce" commons by about 36%, if you are aiming for getting an incarnate power crafted up to Tier 3.

Relative to very rares (Tier 4): 70.22 commons : 17 uncommons : 4.22 rares : 1 very rare
To build up to a Tier 4 power: 16 commons : 2 uncommons : 2 rares : 1 very rare

15 extra uncommons = 3.75 rares = 0.9375 very rares
2.22 extra rares = 0.555 very rares

So the adjusted ratio of commons to very rares is:
28.17 commons : 1 very rare

So the tables "oveproduce" commons by about 76% if you are aiming for getting an incarnate power crafted up to Tier 4.

In general, what that means is that provided your aim is to get a power up to Tier 3 or Tier 4, until the component rolls have given you all the rares and very rares you need to reach your goal the most efficient strategy, long-term, is to save all threads and merits for crafting into rares or very rares. The component tables will generally drop all the commons and uncommons you'll need (and more) before you get the rares or very rares you need.

In fact, there's a good likelihood that you'll have enough "excess" to directly craft the rare you need *before* you actually get one to drop, and a very good likelihood you'll have enough "excess" to directly craft a very rare before you get one to drop.

I've pointed this out before, but for those that are interested - especially those used to the trials - it bears repeating since it's counter intuitive relative to "trial logic" (which the rarer components are common enough you are likely, although not guaranteed, to have what you need before you have every common to need to get to a certain level of power, so converting threads to commons is potentially useful; for the solo path, converting threads and merits into commons and even uncommons is potentially a liability, long-term).

Yet another reservation for future posts.

A final reservation for future posts.

Okay, if you've got data for me, post away! And remember, specificity helps!

Example:

6 first runs: 5 commons, 1 uncommon <--- useful
2 flashbacks: both commons <--- useful

Done all the DA arcs on multiple characters, got nothing but commons with a few uncommons. <--- not useful (no way of knowing how much of what you got)

And if you've been posting in the beta thread, please, PLEASE don't repost data from that thread here - just post new results. I've got all of the old data covered.

21 First runs - 17 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare
2 Flashbacks - 2 commons

I don't think this is the right forum for this thread. It's neither a bug or technical/gameplay issue. General Discussions perhaps is a better fit.

I believe it is a game play problem. It's evidence that there are many players who are dissatisfied with the reward percentages of the solo path and we're acquiring data to support that assertion.

I got two more commons for yesterday's run and today's.

I agree that this is a reasonable place to record this data. Drop rates are a legitimate game play issue. In a recent patch a new contact was added who gives out 2 empyrean merits if you repeat all the DA arcs instead of grinding the easiest one over and over. The change to 10 threads from Ephram's repeatables also helped a great deal. Feedback like this may well have pushed the devs to make these changes, because they provide certain progress toward a goal that random drops alone cannot.

After exactly one month I have made four T3 powers, and a T2 in Interface, consuming every piece of incarnate salvage I have but for an ancient nictus fragment, one thread and one shard. I unlocked the Lore and Destiny slots yesterday, and in one fell swoop today I used the nearly 400 threads, 20 astrals and a Notice of the Well that I'd accumulated in the last month.

Although it's possible get to 50+3 in a month, it requires soloing two or three arcs most days, running a decent amount of DA content on large teams with other players to get enough iXP to unlock the slots, as well as running a WST. I did this with a stalker, which I imagine is easier to solo than many squishies.

(PS: forgot about the several SSA runs I made where I took the 10 threads reward instead of the hero merit.)

Ran 21 arcs (20 were first time runs, 1 was a repeat) and got:

16 Commons (1 of them was for the repeat)
3 Uncommons
2 Rares

Uncommon (resulting in my very first level shift!)

And now for an update! A big thanks to those who've been keeping track of drops and added big chunks of data! It's much appreciated - as are the people who are now trapped in "flashback" mode, but are still pushing ahead and providing me with their drop information, even if, by necessity, it comes in at a trickle.

Keep it up!

614 rolls total:

461 Commons (75.1%)
118 Uncommons (19.2%)
29 Rares (4.7%)
6 Very Rare (1.0%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 55.90
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 49.17
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 46.38

Heather (via Ouroboros): very rare

3 first runs - 2 commons, 1 uncommon

Duo run netted me my first Rare!
My partner got a Common.

3 Runs this week so far.

2 Heather "Flashback" from Ouro - 2 Common
1 Mu'Vorkan "Flashback" form Ouro - 1 Uncommon

Heather flashback: uncommon

Ran a Sister Solaris flashback (working toward this week's two empyreans) and got another rare. (Not a complaint - just pleased with my luck.)

I have begun to notice my complete lack of ability to roll anything other than astral merits on this character. I think this is about ten rolls in a row - never gotten a empyrean roll on this guy. Odd.

Anyway, here's today's update:

623 rolls total:

464 Commons (74.5%)
121 Uncommons (19.4%)
31 Rares (5.0%)
7 Very Rare (1.1%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 58.75
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 52.40
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 49.71

Heather flashback = Common

42 runs across two alts:

31 common, 10 uncommon, 1 rare.

Heather (via Ouroboros): Common