Dark Astoria Component Drop Rates

Update time! (One common and one uncommon for me this time around)

I've decided to start tracking merit rolls, where available, since I can't be completely sure they're what I thought they were. Specifically, I've begun to seriously suspect the drop rate of Empyrean merits from the merit roll reward were reduced after Gabriel was added. But suspicion isn't proof.

If you've got the information, let me know: how many merit rolls you've made, and how many of each "kind" came up (i.e. "astral" if you got the 2 astrals, or "empyrean" if you got the empyrean merit). I care about rolls not actual numbers of merits. So if you've got data for 10 "rolls" on the merit table, and came up astrals 8 times (for 16 astrals total) and empyreans twice, please list that as "8 astral" not 16 astral.

If at all possible, only provide data for merit rolls from after Taskmaster Gabriel was added. If you're not sure, I'd prefer if you leave the data out - there'll be plenty of time to collect enough data for good statistics here.

Obviously, don't feel like you need to provide both; if all you've got for the day is a merit roll, that's fine. Same goes for if you only did component rolls, and not merit rolls.

Okay, on to the actual tally:

832 rolls total:

632 Commons (76.0%)
153 Uncommons (18.4%)
38 Rares (4.6%)
9 Very Rare (1.1%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 56.47
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 49.43
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 47.08

Merit rolls:

14 Astral (82.4%)
3 Empyreal (17.6%)

A roll on the merit table gives "incarnate progress" of: 14.09*

*"Astral" gives 2 astral merits, worth 4 threads total. Empyreans have their highest value when converted into Very Rares (45 threads per Empyrean), but probably are much more frequently converted into Rares (42.5 threads per Empyrean), so I use 42.5 threads to represent the "progress" value of an Empyrean merit.

A little bit more information (big update today):

The current ratios are:

Relative to rares (Tier 3): 16.63 commons : 4.03 uncommons : 1 rare
To build up to a Tier 3 power: 7 commons : 1 uncommon : 1 rare

Because 4 uncommons (+100 threads) builds a rare, we can think of 3.03 uncommons (above what you need) as 0.75 rares, so the adjusted ratio of commons to rares is:
9.5 commons: 1 rare.

So the tables "overproduce" commons by about 36%, if you are aiming for getting an incarnate power crafted up to Tier 3.

Relative to very rares (Tier 4): 70.22 commons : 17 uncommons : 4.22 rares : 1 very rare
To build up to a Tier 4 power: 16 commons : 2 uncommons : 2 rares : 1 very rare

15 extra uncommons = 3.75 rares = 0.9375 very rares
2.22 extra rares = 0.555 very rares

So the adjusted ratio of commons to very rares is:
28.17 commons : 1 very rare

So the tables "oveproduce" commons by about 76% if you are aiming for getting an incarnate power crafted up to Tier 4.

In general, what that means is that provided your aim is to get a power up to Tier 3 or Tier 4, until the component rolls have given you all the rares and very rares you need to reach your goal the most efficient strategy, long-term, is to save all threads and merits for crafting into rares or very rares. The component tables will generally drop all the commons and uncommons you'll need (and more) before you get the rares or very rares you need.

In fact, there's a good likelihood that you'll have enough "excess" to directly craft the rare you need *before* you actually get one to drop, and a very good likelihood you'll have enough "excess" to directly craft a very rare before you get one to drop.

I've pointed this out before, but for those that are interested - especially those used to the trials - it bears repeating since it's counter intuitive relative to "trial logic" (which the rarer components are common enough you are likely, although not guaranteed, to have what you need before you have every common to need to get to a certain level of power, so converting threads to commons is potentially useful; for the solo path, converting threads and merits into commons and even uncommons is potentially a liability, long-term).

Praetor Duncan (Ouroboros): Common
Heather (Ouroboros): Empyrean

Two Heather flashbacks - one common, one uncommon.

I'm in thread conversation mode, now, too. I need 3 rares to have everything at T3.

Flashbacks: rare, common.

***END DATA***

WSTs and NotW (and good ol' Morty) have been my planned route for T3, 8 shards (can be bought with astrals) + 1 NotW = T3, if I get a rare component drop then I can build from the thread system. So far one NotW T3 and one thread system T3 made on my DA tester. Manti/Renault this week so that will be my saved for my judgement T3 and Mot knows when I'll get destiny/lore unlocked.

Common

Three commons for me and an empyrean merit. (Of the components, one was a first run and two were flashbacks.)

840 rolls total:

638 Commons (76.0%)
154 Uncommons (18.3%)
39 Rares (4.6%)
9 Very Rare (1.1%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 56.55
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 49.60
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 47.14

Merit rolls:

14 Astral (73.7%)
5 Empyrean (26.3%)

A roll on the merit table gives "incarnate progress" of: 17.07

1 Flashback, and it was a common.

Sister Solaris (Ouroboros): Uncommon
Heather (Ouroboros): Astrals

Flashbacks: uncommon, astral.

Flashbacks: common, astral.

Dream Doctor, Part 1 (Ouroboros): Common
Dream Doctor, Part 2 (Ouroboros): Astrals

Very Rare!

Oooo! Congratulations, Maestro! My contribution this time: two commons and one uncommon, and two merit rolls - both astral (everything was flashback).

849 rolls total:

643 Commons (75.7%)
157 Uncommons (18.5%)
39 Rares (4.6%)
10 Very Rare (1.2%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 57.88
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 50.91
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 48.78

Merit rolls:

20 Astral (80.0%)
5 Empyrean (20.0%)

A roll on the merit table gives "incarnate progress" of: 14.90

I'll let the thread collect data for the rest of the weekend, and then update Monday morning.

Duncun Arc: common.

Oh yeah, first run.

Heather (Ouroboros): Astrals

15 common
6 uncommon
1 rare

Flashbacks: uncommon, common, astral, astral.

Duo with friend: 2 Commons

6 Heather flashbacks, all Common.

Time for today's update!

883 rolls total:

669 Commons (75.8%)
164 Uncommons (18.6%)
40 Rares (4.5%)
10 Very Rare (1.1%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 57.10
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 50.05
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 47.88

Merit rolls:

25 Astral (83.3%)
5 Empyrean (16.7%)

A roll on the merit table gives "incarnate progress" of: 13.75

Heather (first run): Common

Common

Since I last posted:
23 common
4 uncommon
0 rare
1 very rare

Today's update:

(Note: This time around it was a common for me, along with an empyrean merit)

914 rolls total:

695 Commons (76.0%)
168 Uncommons (18.4%)
40 Rares (4.4%)
11 Very Rare (1.2%)

So far, each roll on the component table gives "incarnate progress" of:
Average Thread Value (Standard): 57.48
Average Thread Value (Tier 3): 50.22
Average Thread Value (Tier 4): 48.40

Merit rolls:

25 Astral (80.6%)
6 Empyrean (19.4%)

A roll on the merit table gives "incarnate progress" of: 14.68