Any predictions on ATIO prices?
By
Agent White,
Posted on: 2012-02-06 07:50 in The Market and Inventions
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Originally Posted by TopDoc
After looking at the prices last night, I went and started buying all I could cheap (under 17M each). I assume Enhancement Converters will work on them. I can buy lots and convert them to random ones. One more set of Enhancements to store up till Enhancement Converters come out. One of these days soon I'll get back to actually playing the game, rather than preparing for Issue 22.
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Confirmation that ECs will work:
http://boards.cityofheroes.com/showp...86&postcount=8
As a clarification, it wasn't clear to me that the catylized "Superior" ATO's would provide 5% smashing/lethal defense with 3 slots. Or 10% smashing/lethal 3 slots each in two different powers.
Yeah, that's pretty hard to ignore. ^_^
my lil RWZ Challenge vid
Are the ATO enhancements 'unique' properties also mutually exclusive once purpled?
That is to say, for example: can you have one regular acc/damage and one purpled acc/damage ATO slotted on the same toon?
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For Set Bonuses, they count as two different sets.|
Originally Posted by Warfarin88
Are the ATO enhancements 'unique' properties also mutually exclusive once purpled?
That is to say, for example: can you have one regular acc/damage and one purpled acc/damage ATO slotted on the same toon? |
For Slotting, they count as the same set, and since they're all Uniques, an ATO and it's SATO version are mutually exclusive.
See here: Spreadsheet: Enhancement Types
Speeding Through New DA Repeatables || Spreadsheet o' Enhancements || Zombie Skins: better skins for these forums || Guide to Guides
I think I went a little overboard. >.>
I have a very strong feeling that the price of these sets will rise. There's a glut on the market from people buying the Super Packs, but historically anything that offers defense sells very well, and anything that offers big recharge numbers sells very well. And I especially see the Scrapper and Brute ATOs selling very well because of the Superior defense numbers. Also, the stalker set is considered very good, and I expect more people to play stalkers come I22.
Consider that most Kinetic Combat pieces sell very well, LotG +recharge sells very well... those can be had for 2 a-merits (ignoring the 1 a-merit KC for the moment). 2 a-merits = 100 merits + 40 million. So roughly speaking, 1 ATO = 4 kin triples or 4 LotG +recharges. 1 ATO Proc = 5 kin triples.
Not that it's that simple, of course. But the scrapper and brute ATOs are still going for 75 mil up to 150 mil maybe. That seems pretty low to me. I don't expect people to continue to buy the Super Packs at the rate they did the first week, so there will be fewer of these ATOs being put on the market as time goes on... and the big influx of merits from the Super Packs, that's going to slow down too. And inflation always drives valuable things up in price over time.
So... I spent most of my money on ATOs the past couple of days, scrapper and brute versions in particular. I have well over 200 stored up. And my marketing toons are all much poorer at the moment.
my lil RWZ Challenge vid
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I really hope this is true ... but the glut of merits and IOs from the first pack buying sprees may take a while to settle out. I, for example, had something like 24000 merits (yes 24K) after my pack-buying sprees. If other people like me keep minting the most expensive IOs and marketing them, supply will stay somewhat high. Also the packs remain relatively cheap to buy so no reason people can't keep buying 'em. I'd LOVE it if prices go up across the board on ATOs, but I'm just a tad skeptical.
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Originally Posted by Organica
I think I went a little overboard. >.>
I have a very strong feeling that the price of these sets will rise. There's a glut on the market from people buying the Super Packs, but historically anything that offers defense sells very well, and anything that offers big recharge numbers sells very well. And I especially see the Scrapper and Brute ATOs selling very well because of the Superior defense numbers. Also, the stalker set is considered very good, and I expect more people to play stalkers come I22. Consider that most Kinetic Combat pieces sell very well, LotG +recharge sells very well... those can be had for 2 a-merits (ignoring the 1 a-merit KC for the moment). 2 a-merits = 100 merits + 40 million. So roughly speaking, 1 ATO = 4 kin triples or 4 LotG +recharges. 1 ATO Proc = 5 kin triples. Not that it's that simple, of course. But the scrapper and brute ATOs are still going for 75 mil up to 150 mil maybe. That seems pretty low to me. I don't expect people to continue to buy the Super Packs at the rate they did the first week, so there will be fewer of these ATOs being put on the market as time goes on... and the big influx of merits from the Super Packs, that's going to slow down too. And inflation always drives valuable things up in price over time. So... I spent most of my money on ATOs the past couple of days, scrapper and brute versions in particular. I have well over 200 stored up. And my marketing toons are all much poorer at the moment. |
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yeah with how often the ATOs drop from packs, I don't see the prices going up.|
Originally Posted by Granite Agent
I really hope this is true ... but the glut of merits and IOs from the first pack buying sprees may take a while to settle out. I, for example, had something like 24000 merits (yes 24K) after my pack-buying sprees. If other people like me keep minting the most expensive IOs and marketing them, supply will stay somewhat high. Also the packs remain relatively cheap to buy so no reason people can't keep buying 'em. I'd LOVE it if prices go up across the board on ATOs, but I'm just a tad skeptical.
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now if they had been RECIPES which required you to CRAFT them with RARE salvage maybe.
As it is, with super packs being a best seller (at least according to the front page of the Paragon Market), and the ATOs dropping like candy, I don't see them going up in price anytime soon. Of course I don't think the expensive ones (200 mill ones) will drop in price much either just because of how valuable they are to the respective ATs.
just my random musing. ignore if you like.
Blazara Aura LVL 50 Fire/Psi Dom (with 125% recharge)
Flameboxer Aura LVL 50 SS/Fire Brute
Ice 'Em Aura LVL 50 Ice Tank
Darq Widow Fortune LVL 50 Fortunata (200% rech/Night Widow 192.5% rech)--thanks issue 19!
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All valid points, but one item to keep in mind is this: Most of the toons I slot with Kinetic Combats slot five sets, and need all four of the non procs to get the def bonus (I replace the riple with the proc when I slot a set of four in Brawl of Boxing, obviously). Those toons can only slot one each of the the ATOs, which will limit their demand too. I understand that purples work the same way, but there are slight differences, I can slot a ranged damage purple set on every toon I have, same with melee and even pbaoe for the most part, but I can only slot the tank ATO set on my four tanks.|
Originally Posted by Organica
I think I went a little overboard. >.>
I have a very strong feeling that the price of these sets will rise. There's a glut on the market from people buying the Super Packs, but historically anything that offers defense sells very well, and anything that offers big recharge numbers sells very well. And I especially see the Scrapper and Brute ATOs selling very well because of the Superior defense numbers. Also, the stalker set is considered very good, and I expect more people to play stalkers come I22. Consider that most Kinetic Combat pieces sell very well, LotG +recharge sells very well... those can be had for 2 a-merits (ignoring the 1 a-merit KC for the moment). 2 a-merits = 100 merits + 40 million. So roughly speaking, 1 ATO = 4 kin triples or 4 LotG +recharges. 1 ATO Proc = 5 kin triples. Not that it's that simple, of course. But the scrapper and brute ATOs are still going for 75 mil up to 150 mil maybe. That seems pretty low to me. I don't expect people to continue to buy the Super Packs at the rate they did the first week, so there will be fewer of these ATOs being put on the market as time goes on... and the big influx of merits from the Super Packs, that's going to slow down too. And inflation always drives valuable things up in price over time. So... I spent most of my money on ATOs the past couple of days, scrapper and brute versions in particular. I have well over 200 stored up. And my marketing toons are all much poorer at the moment. |
I do believe they will eventually creep up a bit, but I don't think at any point they will be insane. 200 million or so sounds about right for each of the scrapper/brute ATOs which have high defense AND high recharge.
We'll see, though I suspect it may take a good month+ to filter through the MASSIVE pack buying surplus (counting ATOs from packs AND ATOs purchased with the insane amount of merits). a LOT of people had WAY too many PP that they never spent and then dumped them all on packs, so we'll see once we get back to VIPs buying just the normal 5 packs a month...
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Ah, but they're only a best seller right now. The question is whether or not the Super Packs KEEP selling or not.|
Originally Posted by Aura_Familia
yeah with how often the ATOs drop from packs, I don't see the prices going up.
now if they had been RECIPES which required you to CRAFT them with RARE salvage maybe. As it is, with super packs being a best seller (at least according to the front page of the Paragon Market), and the ATOs dropping like candy, I don't see them going up in price anytime soon. Of course I don't think the expensive ones (200 mill ones) will drop in price much either just because of how valuable they are to the respective ATs. just my random musing. ignore if you like. |
If sales start to peter off, there are going to be significantly less of these entering the market in the long term. In that case, I would expect to see prices for these skyrocket in as short as three weeks' time.
If Super Packs keep selling? The prices will remain constant, or dare I say, even drop a bit.
Some of the sets are being sorely undervalued. I picked up a full set of the Kheldian ATOs for about 60 million last night, and I suspect I'll be picking up a full set of the controller one for barely 100.
Meanwhile, the scrapper and brute sets look as though they'll be the major cash cow sets of this release, with Blasters and Corruptors coming in a close second.
Dame Silverwing (50 Kat/SR Scrapper) Virtue
Professor Bikini (50 Bots/Dark MM) Virtue
Dame Silver Fury (41 Peacebringer) Virtue
Operative Velvet (50 Fortunata) Virtue
Petal Dancer (35 Plant/Kin Contoller) Virtue
Tanegashima (Rapidly levelling DP/Ice Blaster) Virtue
(and more)
It is very hard to predict. But I think that, at the very least, they're not going to become cheaper or more plentiful than they are this first week, so even if prices remain the same or only rise slightly, I at least have a good investment in ATOs that I can use on my many many alts. I think I have at least 2 full sets of everything but the MM version.
But I'll be very interested to see how these are selling in a month or two, or three. ^_^
my lil RWZ Challenge vid
I expect prices to dip this weekend as the weekend crowd starts buying Super Packs and selling the ATOs they don't need. After that, Super Pack sales should drop off considerably, but demand will always be high. Prices wil creep up.
Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304
Hmm, good call (on the likely dip over the weekend).
I may need to spend even more of my ever-dwindling supply of money.
And put in a third extra IO storage bin. And/or start using my bins on other servers and villainside.
my lil RWZ Challenge vid
I know what you mean by ever-dwindling supply of money. I've been buying purples and now ATOs like a drunken sailor. As to storage, I had to start a spreadsheet to keep track of all of my bases and where I'm putting some things.
Goodbye and thanks for all the fish.
I've moved on to Diablo 3, TopDoc-1304
It seems that they are dropping steadily. My first speculative buys has all been at a loss
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I'm still skeptical that this will continue. There is every reason to believe the vast majority of the supply will have been purchased up front. They are very pricy from a merit perspective. If super packs are a bonafide "hit", then maybe not. I know that I bought a LOT of superpacks, and even quantitatively, I didn't get enough ATOs to satisfy my altitis, and I want a set of ATOs on every character I roll usually, starting at L5.|
Originally Posted by Alvdraken
It seems that they are dropping steadily. My first speculative buys has all been at a loss
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Now, if the devs put these same ATOs in future packs, then my theory goes out the window. If not, I expect them to land in the realm of ~100m+.
I think you can't underestimate how long it will take for demand to rise as awareness of their benefits arises, and people learn tricks like doing 3+3 (3 catalyzed/3 not) for double-set bonuses (7.5% S/Ldefense from 6 slots? ok.)
I'm not a universal optimist about rising prices, since I've said the PvP IO and Purple markets are about to take a dump that will shock most people. (at least, based on prices things are selling at now)
I know my estimate of what ATO prices would do is completely wrong. I know I grossly underestimated the number of packs that would be bought. I am guessing I missed by a full order of magnitude or even by a factor of 20 or more. I am well underwater on all my speculations, so far, and no longer expect any cheese, but only hope to get out of the trap, by breaking even, maybe.
As to continued sales, I suspect a LOT of people, employed people, who do not want to grind out merits on TF's, and don't want to spend precious game time marketing, or who are just lazy in their leisure time, will be buying packs just for the FLOOD of merits, and selling the rest of the goodies they don't need. I think the Merits are the single most versitile thing in the packs, conviently packaged in 25 unit bundles you can claim on any toon. I saved up for the pack release and opened 120 packs. I got almost 6,000 merits. I won't have to buy a Numi, Miracle, or LotG 7.5 for a loooong time. If I was not sick and still able to work and had income, I might do exactly that and just buy packs whenever I was short on time.
If casual pack sales are being driven by that metric, then ATO prices will stay depressed for a considerable time. Probably until the next round of packs with different goodies, or at least that's my guess. Of course my guesses are not very good lately.
Jak
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Maybe. I fit the bill. Pretty big entertainment budget and so I generally don't have to think twice about reloading a 9600-point bundle if there's stuff I want. By the time I was done buying packs, I had >6000 merits, and I still didn't have anywhere near all of the ATOs that I needed. I certainly don't intend to buy more packs for merits (since I can buy anything I can get with merits), or for ATOs (especially how cheap they are on the market). So even though I bought >100 packs, I'm skeptical that I'll buy more.|
Originally Posted by JakHammer
As to continued sales, I suspect a LOT of people, employed people, who do not want to grind out merits on TF's, and don't want to spend precious game time marketing, or who are just lazy in their leisure time, will be buying packs just for the FLOOD of merits, and selling the rest of the goodies they don't need |
On the other hand... I'm also a net buyer. I've only sold a couple ATOs and that was mostly because I was too lazy to mail an alt influence, so I plucked one out of global mail and sold it real quick. But on the balance, I've bought up hundreds of ATOs and based them... just in case they go up. I bought the cheap ones (MM, Kheldian ones), figuring I'd just use converters on them if the other ones were pricey. But I really expect almost every character I roll will use them, with the exception of ones perhaps where the itemization is very bad. (ie, the MM set is sort of bad. But I might slot 4 of them just to get the unique+rech bonus.)
I mean, if you need the defense and don't need the recharge, go for it.
I haven't planned any builds in MIDS with these yet. Doing that, I might want to 3-slot here and 3-slot there and move slots around. But My street justice brute was already softcapped and I had Positron's Blast slotted in one of my attacks (I have the purple set 5-slotted in fireball already). So replacing Positron's Blast with 5 pieces of the brute ATO gives me more defense and more recharge. No-brainer, I thought.
my lil RWZ Challenge vid