One hundred trials later...

ok so atempting to reason with you is out, its personal attacks then.

I stated that i doubted that the situation was as dire as you stated because on a low population server, over a series of several months, i had never observed ANY of the behaviors you mentioned. Surely if they were actually trending fewer, liberty would be feeling the effects as well, but this is dramatically not the case. if this is happening in other servers it would also be filtering into there, a consistently low pop server. there is no evidence of this, so it is not credible until such evidence becomes apparent.

Actually attempting to reason is fine, but your post wasn't an attempt to reason, it was telling me that the post I quoted wasn't happening. You also started out with attacking me and my post.
That really didn't sound to me that you wanted to discuss anything. It sounded like you wanted to put me on the defensive and then use that as a basis to poke holes in my post. That question is like "how often do you beat your wife?" There is no way that I could respond reasonably to a post that started that way. If you really want to discuss the issue instead of attacking me or telling me that what I've seen doesn't exist, then I'd welcome that. However if all you have to say is that "I don't see it" or "it isn't happening to me so it doesn't exist", then what is left to discuss?
It has been happening. It might not be omni-present (thankfully it isn't), but it is happening. I suspect that it is happening to some degree on every server. I didn't say it was prevalent yet. I said I've seen it starting to happen. Do you see every league formed? I do know that during the last few weeks, I've been on less trials. I've also seen some people get rejected from running trials for various reasons.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

This crystallizes something that has been vaguely bothering me. What if the devs were to put things you can buy with Astral merits on the lower random tables, and things you can buy with Empyrean merits on the higher ones?

A Rare costs 8 Empyrean merits, a Very Rare costs 30. For example, offering a single Aura choice (currently 3 E) on the Rare table, or an "all the Auras pack" (currently 18 E) on the Very Rare table, would technically be a loss... but might be a real improvement for a significant number of people.

Part of the issue is that currently someone who gets lucky on the "random" option *also* gets the "deterministic" rewards, and can go spend them on costumes; whereas someone who has to spend their merits on components doesn't have the option to get lucky on costumes, they have to do more grinding.

This also bothers me; it seems that the time commitment versus luck balance is not where it should be. For NotW, the time difference was roughly a factor of two between the fastest possible, and any group capable of doing it at all; that was reasonable. The disparity here seems to be more like a factor of ten, and that's more than I'm happy with.

no, it was actually me asking you if you personally have ever been turned down for a trial, if you had, i would have asked you the circumstance because i have not and would have wanted to know what was making your experience different, i was trying to find out what mitigated the situation, but you read intent into my post and turned it into an attack. i would have also asked you how often. one instance is an anomaly or maybe just a jerk, several instances would indicate some systemic problem. but again, your first instinct was to assume the worse. is asking you if you personally have observed a situation really the same as asking you" how often you beat your wife", is that REALLY a rational comparison between those two questions? no, my quastion was. "i have not seen this phenomena, could you help me understand it by letting me know if its frequent or widespread among the community, or maybe just localized to some members of the community that might just be idiots. It is something i have never seen in several months of playing on several alts, none of which were remotely min maxed, so it is strange that on a lower population server with a sub-optimal character i haven't seen it." If i claimed soemthign were wrong and affectign the game, and you NEVER in several months had seen it, wouldnt you want more evidence from me before you accepted it as true? ok, do you have anyone else to corroborate this, how often have you seen it verifiably, which people got rejected, have you seen why, was it powersets, behavior, cliquishness? what you have given as support to your grand thesis is that something is wrong, but you only give vague support for it. i havent seen it, leo also stated he didnt, neither did amygdila. can you please give me some reason to believe that this is a significant real issue other than just your word and some very general statements that are difficult to verify? Why have you been on less trials? was it because you saw them being posted, asked to be invited and were turned down? are the common places to team up still being frequented by large groups, but nobody will return your tells when you ask for a group? Do others in your friends circles or chat channels report tryign to get on trials and being turned away because of powersets or shift level? was it because they weren't forming because the initial rush of people incarnating out their characters has finally started to slow down because they have already gotten their t4 and now are off doing other content, so now we are on more of a normalcy relative to the initial rush?

it's my experience doing BAFs ion Freedom via PuGing in Pocket D that the only reason people close leagues is to avoid the 5-min delay from the LFG thing. I haven't noticed any snobbery or particular preference for certain ATs/level shifts.

Eco.

Originally Posted by Samuel_Tow [The Incarnate System is] Jack Emmert all over again, only this time it's not "1 hero = 3 white minions" it's "1 hero = 3 white rocks."

Had you said, "i have not seen this phenomena, could you help me understand it by letting me know if its frequent or widespread among the community", I would have responded far differently than I did. If you had asked "In what circumstances have you seen this happening?", I would have responded far differently than I did. With that one line, you instead set the tone that I was either imagining the situation or blowing it out of proportion. Then you proceeded to knock down what you thought I was saying.

It depends a lot on how you ask it. How you did so initially, yes, I read it as an attack. Your post came across as trying to tell me I was wrong, not trying to figure out what was going on.

Had you said it this way, I would not have read it as an attack.

Given that I was quoting someone that said that THEY were doing it, I don't think I would need more evidence.

I have booted someone from a league because they purposely failed a master badge run (pulled the AV out of the Lambda courtyard). I know of several people that refuse to run any trials with that person, even months later. I've teamed with the person several times since, but I wouldn't want him on any trial where I'm looking to get badges.

I take people at their word when they say they are doing something. I can't point you to other posters saying the same thing as the Issue 20 Open Beta and Issue 20 Live sections have been removed.

A number of reasons. Time of day I'm able to get on 7-9pm Pacific on Triumph. Sometimes I log on to see that a trial started 5 minutes ago, or just filled by everyone that is interested in running a trial. Sometimes the number of friends I have on amounts to 2-3 people.

Why are you continuing to try to make it out as if I'm some kind of social leper? Seriously, it isn't that you are asking questions, it is you asking questions in such a way as to paint me in a negative light that I'm having an issue with.

This isn't about me.

The only time I've been turned down is if the trial was full. The problem with that is that sometimes a full trial means that everyone that is interested in running a trial is already on the league, and people have to wait until that trial is done. In other words, the trial running population can only support 1 trial at times.

The common place on Triumph seems to be Pocket D, but no one really hears about the trials launching from the RWZ.

Back before the Lambda badges were changed, I witnessed one person repeatedly getting told they were not welcome because they didn't have level shifts.

Yes, there is some of that as well.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

One thing to mention though, no matter the reward structure, as long as the primary reward is given for a Successful Completion, the reward structure will grant a greater benefit to those who are better players for their time investment. When you get the same reward if the trial takes 40minutes or 20minutes, you're going to prefer groups that will only take 20 minutes, have less risk and all that.

Now there is a fair point that league success variables would be the tipping point for individuals to become exclusionary.

Meh.

Sometimes I wonder if people remember this is a game, something you play for fun. I don't need any reward drops; I got my T4s about a week after i20 landed. I play them because they're "the thing" to do with other high level players and badgers. I organized Hamidon for a long while on Freedom just because nobody else was doing it and I wanted to bring its social aspect back, not for the drops. I only exclude people if they are rude or insulting towards others, regardless of their skill level.

Absolutely true. However, the (league) "performance" factor is now layered on top of this. So now, if you have a "poorly performing" league, not only might your iTrial take longer to finish, you may also now be more likely to get a less valuable reward. It's a compounding factor.

I'm going on having run some 400 trials across 8 characters. I do run them for fun, and not just reward, but I am no longer interested in running them for the sake of running them. I want them to be fun and rewarding. Running them with people I know and who are generally capable players is my best bet for both. Is that also true of other content, like TFs? Sure. But I also haven't been running the same two TFs a ton for the last couple of months, and TFs don't have a "participation" system (thank God).

Looking at the data again, I noticed something annoying. Over all my characters, I'm close of the predicted 10 V / 20 R / 40 U / 30 C range. However, looking at the individual characters, I'm seeing far less than the predicted 10 V / 20 R / 40 U / 30 C range.

Totals across all trials

Snow Globe - Ice/FF Controller:
Very Rare (3) = 3.85%
Rare (10) = 12.82%
Uncommon (36) = 46.15%
Common (22) = 28.21%
Threads (1) = 1.28%
Fails (6) = 7.69%
Total = 78

White Succubus - Illusion/Empath Controller:
Very Rare (9)= 13.04%
Rare (18) = 26.09%
Uncommon (31) = 44.93%
Common (9) = 13.04%
Threads (0) = 0.00%
Fails (2) = 2.90%
Total = 69

Blastbot - Bots/Dark Master Mind:
Very Rare (1) = 3.13%
Rare (7) = 21.88%
Uncommon (13) = 40.63%
Common (8) = 25.00%
Threads (1) = 3.13%
Fails (2) = 6.25%
Total = 32

Little Imp - Fire/Fire Tanker:
Very Rare (1) = 3.03%
Rare (5) = 15.15%
Uncommon (14) = 42.42%
Common (12) = 36.36%
Threads (0) = 0.00%
Fails (1) = 3.03%
Total = 33

My individual character totals are mostly falling drastically short of the predicted 10 V / 20 R / 40 U / 30 C range.

Only one character comes close, but only because it gets so few commons.

Edit:
I'm working on separating my trials results before April 26, form April 26 to June 27, and from June 28 on.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

So what you're saying is that when you look at the data in smaller chunks it shows more variation from the predicted values then when you look at the large chunk?

Yes. That is exactly what I'm saying. If I were a player getting what I see on say Snow Globe as compared with White Succubus, I'd be really ticked off at NCsoft.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

I mentioned this on the very first page:

Yesterday I ran two trials, one with each character. The one that got 8 Very Rares... got another Very Rare. The one I need Very Rares on... got a common. I wish I was making this up.

You said this a few times, but she didn't. I even checked her original post and it wasn't edited. 5+10+30+55=100.

Ok, that math error is corrected. Shouldn't do math in my head late at night. Any other data is coming from Excel, not my head.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters

I've been pushing this for quite a while.

Small sample sizes do not yield uniform distribution, eh?
So basically the problem is that the random number generator is actually exhibiting randomness?

To get any other result you'd have to add a non-random weighting system that tracks each character's reward table results and alters each roll based on prior results. Sort of a reward table streakbreaker.

Mind, it would be relatively simple to do.

Say, if you've run 50 successful trials and never gotten a very rare, the game forces one.

Although then again, it would be pointless since we already have the empyreal method.

Empyraens don't address the fact that for the player base as a whole, it is much smarter to save Empyraens and wait for drops. That's IF the numbers are really 10%.

The real failure of this system, though, is that no one has any idea what a "good run" of a trial is versus a "bad one" in terms of team success even though this supposedly effects the rewards. This means basing any sort of award on it is completely arbitrary. For all we can say, a person who never or rarely gets V Rares either just has bad luck (and will get the V Rare eventually, in theory) or is being penalized invisibly for playing on leagues that "play wrong." Random chance alone already indicates that given a 10% chance for a drop, in a league of 24 players in a totally average situation, one player will have about 5 - 7 V Rare drops before the least lucky player even gets one. When you add the "weighting" mechanisms, the numbers drive off a cliff. Since there is no feedback at all on whether you are on a "good" league or a "bad" there is nothing for you to adjust or change. Your league will keep running the trial "poorly" and next to a "good" league will fall behind without anyone being able to say that is what is going on.

Again, that's probably deliberate. You want the random method to be a better odds, statistically, than the deterministic one simply because it's random. (whether it should be three times better is a different question, it probably should have a slight edge)

It's actually even kinder than that since the deterministic method isn't directly tied to the random one: IE: You can progress down both at the same time.

For the record, I don't believe in Arcana's split between "deterministic" and "random." Because the deterministic path forces you to roll, the only thing deterministic about it is that there is a path of some kind. The length of that path is anything but deterministic unless you just flat out ignore random drops. The only time you spend any Empyraens is when the system doesn't proc for you.

It takes 30 Empyraens to get a V Rare. If the odds of one dropping randomly are 10%, that means you have a 0.90^30 chance of it not dropping on its own while gathering Emps. That's about 4%.

IF the number is really 10% and if we can control it, for the player base as a whole it is much smarter to save Empyraens than spend them on V Rares. After all you don't get the Emps back if you spend them and a V Rare drops later (which illustrates another principal: high value salvage is more valuable if it procs in the first 50 or so rolls rather than later).

Yep. But the deterministic path is there as a floor, for those people who are just plain unlucky. Remember, theoretically you could run twenty million trials and never get a very rare. Becuase that's how randomness. works. It acts as a streak-breaker.

The two characters that I mentioned have nearly the same sample size as Leandro's initial post (100 trials). Given that, their runs are should be close to his, but they aren't. Admittedly I'm also keeping track of the 2 times I got threads (1% overall runs) and failures (which Leandro might not have or have been subject to).

The character with 78 trials is: 4% V / 13% R / 46% U / 28% C / 1% T / 8% F (values rounded).

The character with 69 trials is: 13% V / 26% R / 45% U / 13% C / 0% T / 3% F (again rounded).

And my overall range (212 trials): 7% V / 19% R / 44% U / 24% C / 1% T / 5% F (rounded).

Compared with Leandro's (100 trials) overall range: 10% V / 20% R / 40% U / 30% C.

The degree with which the individual character deviates from the overall is a problem.

And there should be a streak breaker, because the system itself is suspect. Otherwise people (not just me) would have stopped complaining about the rewards by now.

Triumph: White Succubus: 50 Ill/Emp/PF Snow Globe: 50 Ice/FF/Ice Strobe: 50 PB Shi Otomi: 50 Ninja/Ninjistu/GW Stalker My other characters