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Yes, that would be above average, but that is such a small data sample that it's completely meaningless in any evaluation of the drop rate.
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Originally Posted by Kitteh
Edit: Now that I'm thinking about it...I'm not sure that's correct. A tank and I "cleaned up" 2/3 of the map after a successful ITF run last night (all other 6 players had left the group). I got 4 shards during the clean-up and I think the tank got 3. Unusually high for the time invested in my experience.
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Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
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My comment pertained to drop rules not drop rates.
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Originally Posted by Ironblade
Yes, that would be above average, but that is such a small data sample that it's completely meaningless in any evaluation of the drop rate.
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Repeat Offenders
hmm wel it seems to me that they have nerfed the shard drop rate i do know for a fact that sence the alpha was started i got at least 4 on a tf and 2 on a solo mish, but sence they started the strikeforce tf iv gotten zero with my tier 1 and brand new lv 50 classe's. ive tried all the combo's for the solo mish and still nothing. we were told that any lv 50 mish will drop shards and before the stkforce targets that was correct but now its a huge lie. the beauty of this game was that you didnt need to always be in a huge group to get what you needed now its seems to be made mandatory to be in groups to get any shards. thats just horse pucky
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Random is random.
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Originally Posted by talestar
hmm wel it seems to me that they have nerfed the shard drop rate i do know for a fact that sence the alpha was started i got at least 4 on a tf and 2 on a solo mish, but sence they started the strikeforce tf iv gotten zero with my tier 1 and brand new lv 50 classe's. ive tried all the combo's for the solo mish and still nothing. we were told that any lv 50 mish will drop shards and before the stkforce targets that was correct but now its a huge lie. the beauty of this game was that you didnt need to always be in a huge group to get what you needed now its seems to be made mandatory to be in groups to get any shards. thats just horse pucky
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There are no words for what this community, and the friends I have made here mean to me. Please know that I care for all of you, yes, even you. If you Twitter, I'm MrThan. If you're Unleashed, I'm dumps. I'll try and get registered on the Titan Forums as well. Peace, and thanks for the best nine years anyone could ever ask for.
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How many of the TFs that you are doing have been speed runs? More mobs killed = More drop chances.|
Originally Posted by talestar
hmm wel it seems to me that they have nerfed the shard drop rate i do know for a fact that sence the alpha was started i got at least 4 on a tf and 2 on a solo mish, but sence they started the strikeforce tf iv gotten zero with my tier 1 and brand new lv 50 classe's. ive tried all the combo's for the solo mish and still nothing. we were told that any lv 50 mish will drop shards and before the stkforce targets that was correct but now its a huge lie. the beauty of this game was that you didnt need to always be in a huge group to get what you needed now its seems to be made mandatory to be in groups to get any shards. thats just horse pucky
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Second, if I were to run demon farms, I am confident that I would get at least one, and sometimes two per run. The beauty of solo play has not changed.
I find it helps to mentally sacrifice the first spawn to the Holy RNG.
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And yet I'm still getting as many as ever.|
Originally Posted by talestar
hmm wel it seems to me that they have nerfed the shard drop rate i do know for a fact that sence the alpha was started i got at least 4 on a tf and 2 on a solo mish, but sence they started the strikeforce tf iv gotten zero with my tier 1 and brand new lv 50 classe's.
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| we were told that any lv 50 mish will drop shards and before the stkforce targets that was correct but now its a huge lie. |
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| the beauty of this game was that you didnt need to always be in a huge group to get what you needed now its seems to be made mandatory to be in groups to get any shards. |
Paragon City Search And Rescue
The Mentor Project
There is nothing wrong with shard drop rates. Its random.
I have gotten very few in a TF. I think in one ITF where we tried to wipe out all the mobs people had gotten 4-5 and I got one. I have been on a LGTF where I got TWELVE.
My average for the ITF is about 4-5. In fact in many cases I usually have gotten enough on my FIRST TF to craft my first Alpha with the Nictus Fragment.
I have gotten Shards solo. I have gotten them farming the street. I have gotten them in tip mission.
In fact I have gotten purple drops while soloing for shards several times which is fun !!
The hard things I can do--- The impossible just take a little bit longer.
If numbers are so much more important than a teammate who is fun to play with, forget about the game altogether and go play with a calculator instead. -Claws and Effect-
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Sorry but I dont believe this. We have tons of threads where folks qq about the solo vs team drop rates on shard. I agree the kill speed is much faster on teams but the drop rate difference is like night and day. I have even test this myself on some aoe centric characters I have in missions set for 8. There is something to the code that makes it more likely to happen on a full team. I guess what needs to be done is this. Have a tf setup for 8 people, the other 7 folks stay outside the missions while the whole tf is going on. Then have the others to do the same tf again with them in the missions, and then again but have the other 7 just log off. I bet after doing this hundreds of times the shard numbers will be very different in the solo vs team setup.
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Originally Posted by UberGuy
Just to be clear, they are not more likely on a team. They have a fixed probability to drop from each mob, based on its rank, just like inventions. However, very unlike inventions, when a mob is defeated by a team, a chance is checked for every member of the team to get a shard. Because teams are likely to roll through foes faster than a single player is, the mob defeat rate is probably higher and thus the shard drop rate per player is probably higher on a team, even though the drop probabilities are fixed. (A team may also be more likely to fight more bosses and LTs, who have higher shard drop probabilities, which would basically translate into a higher drop probability while on a team.)
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What makes it happen 'more often' for a full team is precisely the thing you disbelieve: a drop check for each person on the team per defeated foe.|
Originally Posted by EvilRyu
Sorry but I dont believe this. We have tons of threads where folks qq about the solo vs team drop rates on shard. I agree the kill speed is much faster on teams but the drop rate difference is like night and day. I have even test this myself on some aoe centric characters I have in missions set for 8. There is something to the code that makes it more likely to happen on a full team. I guess what needs to be done is this. Have a tf setup for 8 people, the other 7 folks stay outside the missions while the whole tf is going on. Then have the others to do the same tf again with them in the missions, and then again but have the other 7 just log off. I bet after doing this hundreds of times the shard numbers will be very different in the solo vs team setup.
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As great as your AoE specialist is, it will not be killing critters as fast as a team of 8. Nor will it be killing Bosses, EBs, and AVs as fast as a team of 8 and higher ranked foes have a higher drop rate.
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Or compare shards per mission rather than shards per unit time, on a relatively fixed shedule. Say, defeating all on one of the level 50 arcs or the first couple of missions on the ITF (Don't include the last mission unless the one character can solo Nictus Rommy).
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Originally Posted by EvilRyu
Sorry but I dont believe this. We have tons of threads where folks qq about the solo vs team drop rates on shard. I agree the kill speed is much faster on teams but the drop rate difference is like night and day. I have even test this myself on some aoe centric characters I have in missions set for 8. There is something to the code that makes it more likely to happen on a full team. I guess what needs to be done is this. Have a tf setup for 8 people, the other 7 folks stay outside the missions while the whole tf is going on. Then have the others to do the same tf again with them in the missions, and then again but have the other 7 just log off. I bet after doing this hundreds of times the shard numbers will be very different in the solo vs team setup.
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wow you guys take negative comments real seriously, wel im happy to say that with speed or regular runs on TF the drop rate is about 5 per tf wich is truly amazing as far as solo it hasn't changed at all but i can say that ive gottem a truck load of more tip missions, and im quite happy for those that dont have my problem with the drop rate in soloing but honesty is honesty
I happy to assume any variation is because of the random chance, if I begin to think it’s anything else I just may go mad 
Not sure if it hopes, but below is my history of drops since completing the arc to open up the slot.
First mission solo – 4 shards (first thoughts, this is great)
Second mission solo – 1 shard (ok not as fast but still reasonable maybe)
Third mission solo – 1 shard (is this a pattern?)
First SF – 14 shards (great!)
At this point I slotted my first common.
Second SF – 8 shards (still great)
4th to (something like) 40th Solo mission – 2 shards total (not great but at least they kind of dropping)
Third SF – 6 shards (kind of what I expected)
At this point I slotted my uncommon and rare
41st to (something like 100th solo mission) – Nil shards (WTF?)
Fourth SF – 1 shard (well it’s better than none)
~ 101st solo mission – 2 shards (at least they are dropping again)
I normally do missions on 0/x4 with bosses on, a combination of level 50 newspaper, mayhem and tip missions. None of the solo ones where "speed runs". The 4th SF was called a "speed run" but didn't really work out that way as no one had both stealth and TP. I also did two of the patron power arcs.
During this time I did as many TFs (or SF now that I’ve swap to villain side) as I’ve done in the previous six years.
I didn’t record the number that drop after every single mission and the number of missions may not be exact, but they should be pretty close (based on time played and average number of mission per hour etc).
I’ve done as many TFs as I can handle for a while now, so I’m hoping I don’t hit such a long run of bad luck solo again.
Edit: I counted wrong in one place.
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When I run solo at x8 I see a drop rate of somewhat less than one shard per mission. If people are seeing 5 shards per TF (let's say we're talking ITF), then it sounds like these are completely in line. Tip missions have far fewer total mobs than the huge numbers of mobs swarming the ACRES of land in the last two ITF missions.|
Originally Posted by talestar
wow you guys take negative comments real seriously, wel im happy to say that with speed or regular runs on TF the drop rate is about 5 per tf wich is truly amazing as far as solo it hasn't changed at all but i can say that ive gottem a truck load of more tip missions, and im quite happy for those that dont have my problem with the drop rate in soloing but honesty is honesty
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While it's possible that there's a bug that causes a reduction in drops in certain cases (there have been such in the past), the experiences that we see in a TF with eight players where one person gets 1 shard and another gets 10 indicate that there's a wide variability, which can be completely attributed to random chance.
Anecdotal experience is the least reliable form of "proof" in statistics. If humans actually understood probability, no one would ever play the lottery or roulette. The fact that millions of people actually do play the lottery is proof that we as a species have absolutely no intuitive grasp of statistics.
This is further exacerbated by the fact that actual drop rates in the game are not publicized, so we can't actually "check the math." All we can do is guess based on logs, and when the drop chance is low it's hard to get good estimates.
Hi,
well, as an escape from the Apex grind I ran my lvl 50 Tank through 5 mishs of the Maria Jenkins arc yesterday set to 0/+6 with Bosses and AV's included. Not one single Shard drop!
Then went and tanked an ITF and got 6 (kill all run).
Don't care about the maths, but the "Perception" for me was that I got screwed whilst doing the Solo's, and how I feel about the game is far more pertinent to me than the RNG. It just does not feel fair (wrong word, cheated probably better), to the extent that I will be iffy about going solo again when looking for shards.
Danger is, if I feel cheated in what is a large part of the game for me, how long will I hang about. And if this is the way that the Dev's have got in place as the alternative to team incarnate slot getting then it will take fornever for me to open up and slot that stuff.
Maybe I20 with it's new system of shard drops will address this situation so I will give it a go and see what happens then.
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Age is of no importance,
unless you are a cheese!
Data samples listed here are not even close to being enough. Run a couple hundred TFs, counting the number of minions, LT, bosses, EBs and AVs killed and have someone else do the same and if your numbers are vastly different then there is an issue.
Although it is odd, I have also noticed frequently getting a shard right at the begining of the first mish of most TFs as well.
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Along those same lines, TFs have more EBs and AVs than normal content so they tend to have more shard drops vs normal team content.
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Originally Posted by UberGuy
Just to be clear, they are not more likely on a team. They have a fixed probability to drop from each mob, based on its rank, just like inventions. However, very unlike inventions, when a mob is defeated by a team, a chance is checked for every member of the team to get a shard. Because teams are likely to roll through foes faster than a single player is, the mob defeat rate is probably higher and thus the shard drop rate per player is probably higher on a team, even though the drop probabilities are fixed. (A team may also be more likely to fight more bosses and LTs, who have higher shard drop probabilities, which would basically translate into a higher drop probability while on a team.)
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10 out of 10 now for getting a shard from the first spawn attacked.
Repeat Offenders