Going to go over my predictions and will post them in a bit. In the mean time, can we please avoid the inevitable Oscar hate posts in this thread for a change?
@Mental Maden @Maden Mental
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Here's a better list to look from...
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=73489
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I hope so.. I watch them to see clips from movies I haven't seen and judge whether I want to see them or not. I also like the tribute to all the Actors/directors/producers, etc that have passed in the last year.
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Originally Posted by MentalMaden
Going to go over my predictions and will post them in a bit. In the mean time, can we please avoid the inevitable Oscar hate posts in this thread for a change?
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No DOOM today, DOOM tomorrow. There's always a DOOM tomorrow.
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I am hoping Natalie Portman wins so she can get a bust on Conan's wall of 'f' bomb dropping Oscar winners.
I still need to see True Grit but Jeff Bridges is one of my favorite actors so it would be fun to see him win.
total kick to the gut
This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.
I've seen a grand total of one of the nominations in this list (ad nausum) and nothing else.
Which cinematic spectacular tempted me to go see it? Inception? Black Swan? 127 Days? The Social Network?
Nope. The Gruffalo. And since it was on BBC1 on Xmas Day just before Dr Who I didn't even go out to see it.
What the hell!?! When did this happen?
I have only seen two of the films on that entire list which was Inception and Black Swan. Those were there films of the year for me, and other awards that could get.
Supporting actress:
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld "True Grit"
Wil win: Melissa Leo
Supporting actor:
Should win: (Finished Winter's Bone and John Hawkes is a strong contender, but an unlikely win)
Will win: Christian Bale "The Fighter"
Lead actress:
Should win: : (Leaving blank... going to watch a couple more)
Will win: Natalie Portman "Black Swan"
Lead actor:
Should win: Jeff Bridges "True Grit" or Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
Will win: Jeff Bridges "True Grit" or Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
Best Director:
Should win: Darren Aronofsky "Black Swan"
Will win: David Fincher "The Social Network"
Best Picture:
Personal Favorite: Inception
Should win based on my personal opinion as to "what best picture is": True Grit (This one surprised me how much I liked it. It looked beautiful and was well acted.)
Likely winner: The Social Network or The King's Speech (One is current and relavent the other is total Oscar bait)
Dark Horse: Winter's Bone (People I know who have seen this have raved how great it is. It's hurt because its a small film and it came out last spring. I'm going to watch it today to see for myself)
@Mental Maden @Maden Mental
"....you are now tackle free for life."-ShoNuff
Inception should take art direction and both sound oscars. I wouldn't mind a best picture, but that would be shortchanging the other best picture nods.
Infinity
Sam Varden 50 MA/Reg Scrap
Doomtastic 50 SS/Inv Brute
Ceus 50 Eng/Kin Corr
Cinderstorm 50 Fire/Fire Blaster
- Best Picture The King's Speech
- Actor in a Leading Role Colin Firth
- Actor in a Supporting Role Mark Ruffalo
- Actress in a Leading Role Natalie Portman
- Actress in a Supporting Role Hailee Steinfeld
- Animated Feature Film DUH TS3
- Art Direction Inception
- Cinematography Inception
- Costume Design True Grit
- Directing David Fincher
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Originally Posted by MentalMaden
Will win: Jeff Bridges "True Grit" or Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
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Hedging your bets. ;]
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Nolan didn't get a Best Director nod... it's rare (though possible) for a picture to win Best Picture without also picking up Best Director.
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Originally Posted by Kasoh
Inception should take art direction and both sound oscars. I wouldn't mind a best picture, but that would be shortchanging the other best picture nods.
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Heh, no I just haven't seen King's Speech yet but I think it's going to be a tight race.
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Originally Posted by Acemace
Hedging your bets. ;]
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@Mental Maden @Maden Mental
"....you are now tackle free for life."-ShoNuff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Smersh
Nolan didn't get a Best Director nod... it's rare (though possible) for a picture to win Best Picture without also picking up Best Director.
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Fun fact time:
Since 1990 it's only happened 4 times: 1998 (BP: Shakespeare in Love/ BD Steven Spielberg Saving Private Ryan ), 2000 (BP: Gladiator/ BD: Steven Soderbergh Traffic, 2002 (BP: Chicago/ BD: Roman Polanski The Pianist ) and 2005 (BP: Crash/ BD: Ang Lee Brokeback Mountain ).
It only happened twice in the 80s: 1981 (BP: Chariots of Fire/ BD: Warren Beatty Reds ) and 1989 (BP: Driving Miss Daisy/ BD: Oliver Stone Born on the 4th of July )
And only once in the 70s: 1972 (and that was Bob Fosse (Cabaret) beating out Coppola (Godfather part 1) which surprised me.)
So yeah 7 times in 40 years. Although 3 of those times in the last ten, so it could be trending away from that.
@Mental Maden @Maden Mental
"....you are now tackle free for life."-ShoNuff
I've been saying for months that 2010 has been the best year for movies in years, no matter what genre you're a fan of. So hard to predict the winners this year. The King's Speech, true Grit, The Social Network or The Kids are All Right could all easily clean up.
I think the only shoe-in is Toy Story 3 for Best Animated Film. (Although I enjoyed How To Train Your Dragon so much that I bought it.)
Best Actor could go to anyone except Jesse Eisenberg. I'd vote for Colin Firth because his performance genuinely blew me away, but I think it's likely to go to Javier Bardem. But Franco could very well be a spoiler this year. I just can't decide.
Best Supporting Actor will likely be down to Ruffalo and Renner. I think the former will get the nod.
Best Actress is again hard to call. I think the main contenders are Benning and Portman, with Portman taking it. I wouldn't bet money on that, though.
Best Supporting Actress is also anyone's ballgame but likely going to be Steinfeld. The buzz around her is ridiculous. Amy Adams for the alternate if the Academy voters think Hailee is too young and unproven. But Weaver is also a serious contender and just might get it.
Art Direction... wow. Over the top competing with subtle and perennial favorite period British pieces. Probably Alice in Wonderland with True Grit as a spoiler.
Cinematography will probably be Black Swan, but again it's a strong field. Inception and Social Network were both awesome, and The King's Speech relied on brilliant subtlety to get its point across. I'd vote for Speech as they employed nicely framed shots to make you feel uncomfortable... Firth was often shown slightly off-center and big moments had a subtle Dutch Tilt to them to make you feel uneasy.
Costume Design could be anyone but I wouldn't be too shocked to see The Tempest get it.
Director... again, up in the air. Not a bad one in the bunch. Aronofsky, maybe.
Documentary has likewise awesome entries. Exit was funny and unexpected, Gasland and Inside Job were thorough and powerful, but I think Restrepo will get it. Depends on what the Academy members' zeitgeist is like this year. They could be very well tired of the bailout and Afghan war, which really leaves Exit.
Editing: 127 Hours, the Black Swan and Social Network all did extraordinary stuff. I'd vote Social, but probably 127 will get it.
Music for me goes to How To Train Your Dragon, hands down. That was the single best soundtrack all year and easily one of the best ever. It had heavy, heavy rotation on my playlist all summer and fall. I can't see anyone really voting for Social Network or Inception, but Speech might pull it off.
Short Film: Animated has to go to Day & Night. So surprising and amazing, what a terrific concept and execution, easily Pixar's best short film.
Visual Effects... hmm, probably Inception.
Adapted Screenplay could be any one of these but I'd vote for 127 Hours just because of the degree of difficulty. The Social Network might get it just for being awesome and making computer dorks interesting.
Original Screenplay ought to go to The King's Speech. The Kids Are All Right will likely get it.
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The Best Actor race is going to Jesse Eisenburg. He's been getting all the hype, most of the awards, and has been a shoo-in since The Social Network opened. Colin Firth may give him a run for the money (depending on the late surge The King's Speech is getting). Jeff Bridges is a longshot, especially since he already won last year and his role previously won an Oscar when John Wayne played him. However, True Grit, overall, did outperform expectations when it came to nominations. It received many more nominations than anticipated.
Portman is a shoo-in for Best Actress. Best Picture is probably going to be The Social Network, with Fincher winning Best Director and Sorkin picking up adapted screenplay. Inception will probably win for original screenplay.
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I think Waiting For Superman should be up for Documentary.
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Originally Posted by Wayfarer
I think Waiting For Superman should be up for Documentary.
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I'll second that.
A tremendous oversight in that category, though not unexpected given the unpleasant light it shown on some teachers unions, thus making it faintly conservative.
Heaven forbid anything remotely conservative makes it to the Oscars.
Ten nominees for Best Picture? Have there always been that many? I haven't paid close attention to the Oscars in about five or six years, but I thought there were always five BP nominees, just like most other categories.
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I've seen most of the movies now but Toy Story 3 is still my favourite. I just couldn't wait to see it again (and I did). I think The King's Speech will probably win, though.
Colin Firth is definitely getting best actor. Natalie Portman will probably win best actress, but I think Annette Benning was better.
I'm a little baffled by the praise for The Social Network. For me, the only real standout from that film was the score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, which made the movie seem cooler and more interesting than it really was.
They opened it up to 10 last year (if memory serves me right they originally did larger numbers but it was pared down in recent decades) to allow more nominations for independents, genre flicks and animated movies.
Edit- It looks like they started doing the 5 picture nominations in 1944 up until last year; before that there didn't seem to be a set number(1934 had 11 and '35 had 12) .
@Mental Maden @Maden Mental
"....you are now tackle free for life."-ShoNuff
Quote:
blockbusters, movies that people actually watched, etc.
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Originally Posted by MentalMaden
They opened it up to 10 last year (if memory serves me right they originally did larger numbers but it was pared down in recent decades) to allow more nominations for independents, genre flicks and animated movies,
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Quote:
So you're saying that nobody watched films like Titanic, Good Will Hunting, Saving Private Ryan, American Beauty, The Sixth Sense, The Green Mile, Gladiator, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, any thee of the Lord of the Rings movies, Moulin Rouge!, Million Dollar Baby, Little Miss Sunshine, No Country for Old Men, Juno, or Slumdog Millionaire?|
Originally Posted by Father Xmas
blockbusters, movies that people actually watched, etc.
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Sure they've picked some obscure films over the years, and a lot of films I didn't personally like, but they do tend to pick a lot of the more popular films that roll through.
Edit: Alternately I guess you could be meaning they're trying to drive up viewership and relevance by pandering to the viewers and allowing in 'popular' films (though personally I think they've always somewhat done that). That thought occurred to me after I responded ....
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Come on, do we have to do this nonsense every year? |
Originally Posted by Father Xmas
blockbusters, movies that people actually watched, etc.
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Titanic (1997), biggest movie of all time at the time of garnering a tie of most noms ever with 14.
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2004), did nearly the same amount of business as Titanic, $1.2 billion, best picture win on top of 11 nominations.
Chicago (2003), $300 million and #10 at the 2002 box office despite being released only THREE WEEKS before the end of the year.
A Beautiful Mind (2002), $315 million, #11 at the 2001 box office, exactly the same story as Chicago.
Gladiator (2001) did half a billion at the box office, #4 in 2000.
Forrest Gump (1995) #1 with $677 million box office.
Schindler's List (1994) $321 million, #9 film in 1993, which is the year Jurassic Park, Mrs. Doubtfire, The Fugitive and Sleepless in Seattle were released. And it's not exactly a feel-good hit.
Dances With Wolves (1991) #3 at the 1990 box office, the same year Home Alone and Ghost came out.
Rain Man (1989) #1 movie in 1988 with $354 million.
Terms of Endearment (1984) #2 movie in 1983 with $250 million bucks. The number one movie that year was Return of the freakin' Jedi.
... and et cetera.
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The King's Speech will win Best Picture.
Collin Firth will win Best Actor
Natalie Portman will win Best Actress.
Those are the only ones I consider locks.
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The Oscars Nominations have just been announced...interesting that True Grit's been nominated for 10 Oscars. And Toy Story 3 is only the 3rd film ever to be nominated for Best Picture. (Beauty and the Beat and Up are the others)
http://oscar.go.com/nominations
Would be nice to see Jeff Bridges win another one, and I know Toy Story 3 will win for Best Animated film. Just haven't seen enough of the others to make a prediction yet.
So what are your predictions for this year?
No DOOM today, DOOM tomorrow. There's always a DOOM tomorrow.
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Arcs: 5318 ROUS (just a little beat 'em up)
8500 One more time down the Yellow Brick Road.
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