TF/SF Merit rewards: An observation.


Adeon Hawkwood

 

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Originally Posted by Dechs Kaison View Post
Fixed.
Actually, it was perfectly within the context of his post. reread it.

He has been contradicting his previous statements.


 

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Originally Posted by Tokyo View Post
Actually, it was perfectly within the context of his post. reread it.
But not of the thread and my previous and after posts. You just took a question I posed to the thread as some type of proof. If that's the best you can do, then you need lots of practice.

I've already disclaimed that I run speed TFs/SFs along with normal instances. I even proposed a solution that would keep merits the SAME for speed runners while providing bonuses to teams that did not avoid content. Keep up.


 

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Originally Posted by PumBumbler View Post

We don't have direct access to the data and probably never will, but we can make some reasonable assumptions. Most of these assumptions are made just make the data set mining simpler.
  • The time does not include external activities (recruiting, shivans, nukes, potty breaks or forum posting)
  • Team composition is ignored (number of teammates, logged out players, ATs, use of temp/vet powers, etc.)
  • There is no distinction about who is running the TF (account wise). If someone chooses to run 3 ITFs with 3 different toons and the same 7 teammates, it will be counted as 3 entries within the dataset.
  • Incompletes are tossed out (Inability to finish)
  • Time to complete is from all runs, regardless of patches or issue (this means the times from the lowered difficulty bug allowing for easy Master of... runs are included, sticking Recluse in STF, TPing past Mold AVs in Eden etc.)

Regardless of the above list though, I believe that speed runners are skewing the average/median time heavily downwards, for two reasons.
  1. Speed runners tend to specialize in TFs because they can run them fast. This means they actually like doing TFs, especially fast ones. This means they have the time to fill their day with TFs where most players don't.
  2. Speed runners can do a TF in a fraction of the time it takes non speed runners to do a TF.
This means that speed runners are over represented by a heavier margin than everyone else.

As an example, we can compare a speed runner (Player S) to non-speed runner (Player N). Each plays 4 hours a day.
  • Player N chooses to play 2 hours on a TF. The other time is spent playing non-TF (maybe non-merit) activities.
  • Player S chooses to play 4 hours on multiple TFs. No time is spent playing non-TF activities.
Not only is Player S putting more time at TFing (which is not an issue), but they are able to finish 4-6 TFs in the same time that Player N chooses to finish one TF.


And that is if Player N does one TF a night. I know many players who do one TF a week. This can mean that Player S will be overrepresented in the samples by a factor of 4x, perhaps as high as 20x versus Player N. This will affect the average time, and will affect the median time.

This in itself is not an issue. The issue that is concerning is when the devs use the data as a benchmark for rewards. If anything, the speed runners have highlighted which TF/SFs need looking at.

When speed runners can finish a TF by a factor of 2x-3x over their non speeding counterparts, it may be assumed that the team is experienced and well designed (think ITF). However, when the factor is 5x-10x (as in Eden), I would suggest that the design of the TF needs to be looked at.

Practically speaking, there isn't a huge difference in what was going on before merits were introduced and after. The speed runners still got way more rewards than the non-speed runners, because that is the activity they have chosen to do.

I would suggest that the devs would have benchmarked a lower number of merits/TFmin if speed runner scores were reduced/eliminated anyhow; I would guess that they had a certain number of merits/day/person figured, or they would have adjusted the pricing of the recipes accordingly.

At least the non-speed runners can choose their reward now. It's just that the most broken of the TFs/SFs are putting out poor rewards.

Again, the devs should be well aware all of these issues, since I had pointed it out on more than one occasion in the forum before merits were introduced.
Yes but you are not accounting for the other groups of players Pum, it's not just S and N.

Lets take the ITF for example if i may(based on my personal experience and observations):

You can run that in what under 25 min?

Group on freedom that runs TF's all day do it in 30-40min

Pug speedish ITF on both Justice and Freedom 35min-1hr

Pug normal ITF or Masters runs 1hr 30-2 hours

lowbie ITF run for xp 1hr-4 hours

You have a few groups running TF's

Player S like you stated

Player N also from your statement

Player F (speedy but not so fast as S but still multiple TF's done in a night)

Payer X (slow like N but again all they do is TF's)

Plus I am sure there are more groups. Some people split TF's into several days even.

So depending on the distribution of these groups across the different server populations is what determines the avg. Now for S's to significantly scew the average there would have to be ALOT of them. I have not had the opertunity to run with any tf's on virtue yet so I can only speek from experience on freedom and Justice which are usually well populated. Based on that the "S" group is likely within the minority. I truely believe that the avg time is heavily based on slower speed runs and kill most runs.

Again the fact that the avg time (merit wise) for and ITF across servers is 90 min and one of the faster speed times is 20 min (a vast difference) sugests "S" playes are outnumbered by a combination of other players enough to keep that avg time much higher than the speed times.

I realize you where pointing out other sugestions on how to award merits my post was directed to the "omg people who speed through TF's are ruining my rewards" posts. Again I believe it is more likely that this is a true average and ploted data would probably be a bell curve with your speed and long tf's at the ends, which while not fair to all is probably fair to the vast majority of the popuation.



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Originally Posted by Phillygirl View Post
Lets take the ITF for example...I truely believe that the avg time is heavily based on slower speed runs and kill most runs.

Again the fact that the avg time (merit wise) for and ITF across servers is 90 min and one of the faster speed times is 20 min (a vast difference) sugests "S" playes are outnumbered by a combination of other players enough to keep that avg time much higher than the speed times.
I've pointed out that the ITF is probably a well balanced TF/SF, since there aren't many points that are skippable, yet the the variation in times is still quite significant. As ITF is probably the most popular TF/SF, I would guess that the N types figure more heavily than S type players by sheer numbers.

However, not every TF is as popular, and the S type players get represented more thoroughly through those TFs. RSF, KHTF and Eden are extreme examples of this.

Note that even figuring the difficulty level of the RSF, it is only awarding 25 merits to STF's 37ish merits. Eden's skimpy reward also shows that the S type players are dominating the times to disproportionately represent themselves in the overall population. The takeaway is not just that the S players are doing it faster, they are getting "counted" more than once because they're finished sooner and then they pile another TF on top of that.

That multiple participation effect by faster players means that the slower players and casual players are underrepresented in the sample, which means their efforts are counted less in calculating the TF average/median time. It suggests they are getting a double penalization of running fewer TFs (deliberately, by inexperience or by lifestyle) and then getting fewer rewards when they do finish the TF. I've suggested a (slight) bonus in a previous post to work around this issue.

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Originally Posted by Phillygirl View Post
Yes but you are not accounting for the other groups of players Pum, it's not just S and N.

Again I believe it is more likely that this is a true average and ploted data would probably be a bell curve with your speed and long tf's at the ends, which while not fair to all is probably fair to the vast majority of the popuation.
I used Player N and Player S to illustrate the extremes. There are many players who fall between both groups. I don't think that it matters which server the populations reside on, from the developer's point of view.

The abilities of the population are likely to be distributed on a standard curve, but the data set gets skewed because the faster folks get to be counted more than once. Just remember that what the devs have chosen to measure isn't like the height of a person, which gets counted once. They are measuring time to completion, and then the participant can choose to run it again, and get counted again.


 

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This seems to suggest that TFs and the like should be engineered so as to have a minimum possible completion time (to prevent a Speed Katie situation where a shortcut leads to Merit Farming on a scale that is considered bad for the game).

Since entering TF mode already locks out other content, this seems quite doable (albeit probably not desirable).


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Well said PB. That's what I was trying to say back on page 4 but you've presented it much better.


 

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Pum, I think your analysis is sound for the initial setting of the merit rewards but not after the introduction of merits. Once merits replaced the TF completion recipe, min/maxers decided that things like Katie and Eden were no longer desireable and went out in search of TFs/SFs where they could leverage the best merit/time ratio.

Which is one reason why so many people run ITFs and LGTFs. Speed runs of both of those are close to 1 merit per minute. I rarely ever hear anyone asking to run Eden or Katie and when they do it's for the badge or just a good way to level up. Imperious and Lady Grey TFs are run multiple times every day on the servers that I play on, but not Katies and Edens.

And I think my supposition is supported by both Katie and Eden getting little bumps in merit awards. I predict that we will continue to see that kind of movement as the speeders distribute themselves across a wider array of tasks and away from those tasks that award much less than a merit/minute


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Originally Posted by Bionic_Flea View Post
Pum, I think your analysis is sound for the initial setting of the merit rewards but not after the introduction of merits. Once merits replaced the TF completion recipe, min/maxers decided that things like Katie and Eden were no longer desireable and went out in search of TFs/SFs where they could leverage the best merit/time ratio.

Which is one reason why so many people run ITFs and LGTFs. Speed runs of both of those are close to 1 merit per minute. I rarely ever hear anyone asking to run Eden or Katie and when they do it's for the badge or just a good way to level up. Imperious and Lady Grey TFs are run multiple times every day on the servers that I play on, but not Katies and Edens.

And I think my supposition is supported by both Katie and Eden getting little bumps in merit awards. I predict that we will continue to see that kind of movement as the speeders distribute themselves across a wider array of tasks and away from those tasks that award much less than a merit/minute
Isn't that exactly the point? The speed runners have defined a reward level for KHTF and Eden where it is no longer desirable for the speed runners, and it is cold comfort for the the non-speed runner to scrape through Eden in 90-180 minutes only to find that their merit reward won't even sustain a random roll.

The devs can't significantly bump up the the low rewards (although over time, the TFs may increase in average time if no speed runners work those TFs) or the rewards will be out of line for the task. They need to rework the TF a bit to narrow the gap and/or bump up rewards for non-speed runners in a way that doesn't reward them for purposely going slow.


 

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Originally Posted by Kitsune9tails View Post
Yes, but you can't really account for form up times
Sure you can. The value you place on it is debateable, but it is always greater than 0, which by default will favor a longer duration taskforce as it will drive the value closer to the 1 merit per 3 min value if we assume the task is being completed in the dev assigned time.

As the number distances itself from 0 it benefits longer duration tasks more and more. Even if we state that vill and hero tasks are formed in the same time it automatically puts villains at a disadvantage because their tasks are on average shorter.

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gathering Shivans and the like in the formula. If nothing else, not all teams gather Shivans specifically for a task (may have already had them lying around)
Shivians are optional to assist in driving your time below the dev assigned value (ideally anyway, some tasks may be skewed by their use previous to merit assignment). However, the sunk cost of team formation is not optional. It will invariably occur.

That said, if you use a shivian on a task then your total time spent on the task does increase because the shivian is expended and took time to get. Interestingly enough, if player A uses a shivian that was already in his possession and did not add to the teams formation time it would negatively impact Player A's total time spent on the task, while potentially lowering the time spent of all the other players.
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or even form up for a specific task ("Thanks for helping out on that mission, guys. Wanna do a SF?").
The time spent to form the team that ran the mission prior to the TF would then be the task formation time. Until there is auto team assignment put in place (not saying I want it) team formation will always have a value greater than 0*

*An exception goes to planned Tasks that are organized outside of the game. Such as when they are planned on the forums. However, the value is still likely to be greater than 0 unless everyone involved logged in at the exact same moment.

The impact the sunk cost has on actual merits/min to time spent on the Task can appear pretty minor (as shown in my last post), but over time it can really add up.

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It would be tantamount to accounting for joking around, bathroom breaks, market runs, and training stops in the formula.
No those are already accounted for in the formula because it is primarily based on median completion times.

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Similarly, it is difficult to account for 'challenge' because of the differences in builds and team composition and the like.
Challenge is already accounted for. See Arcanaville's description on minimum thresholds for a greater understanding. While it may not be the most comprehensive system that could be employed it does account for challenge.
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Besides, be careful: although everyone wants there to be more SFs, do you really want a Quaterfield redside to 'even out' task lengths? It would be one way to handle the problem without recalculating the formula and taking into account various controversial/subjective factors (like how much pre-I13 data should 'count').
I seriously doubt the devs would implement anything like Dr Q these days. I'm sure their datamining shows that they are so infrequently played that removing them would have no statistical significance on the game. If new ones are introduced they will all be sub ~2 hr completions.

I can understand why you might have interpreted what I was saying as a request for longer duration SF's, but I actually wasn't. Quite the opposite actually. I want them to slice and dice the super long hero tasks like they are doing with Posi. Many of them need serious revision to bring them up to acceptable content standards. I'd also like to see 3-5 more SF's added in the 25+ game.

For clarification: I'm not saying that formation time should be factored into the dev formula for merit reward, just that end users should be aware of it when calculating things like earned merits/time spent.


 

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Originally Posted by Days_ View Post
Would that data not have included the data from before I13 when activity on (some) SF's was remarkably different? I was asking if it would be an idea to re-calculate based on the data from I13 and excluding data from before that point.

If the previous data is included then it might have had an effect on the end result. I know I am over-using the example of Virgil Tarikoss here but; if it was the habit of some to run that SF repeatedly and quickly multiple times per day then they might have completed [WARNING: ARBITRARILY MADE UP NUMBER] 1000 speed runs. I13 comes in and the reward is not significant enough to carry on that behaviour so less runs are made. The up-dated data would still have a bias towards those 1000 speed runs which are no longer an accurate representation of how that SF is now played.

Or have I missed something pertinent?
No, it seems I missed you asking that originally. Their datamining for merit rewards post-I13 probably still includes all those pre-I13 speed runs, which is effectively keeping the merit count down, but there are a few problems with throwing the pre-I13 runs out and starting fresh:

1. The merit rewards for particular content are low (Eden, KHTF, Tarikoss, as examples) so there's very little incentive to do them "normally." Even after I13, I've seen very few teams do "kill-most" runs of any of those three pieces of content. This leads to number two:

2. Most teams post-I13 are still completing them relatively quickly. Even if that weren't the case, and merits were upped to the point where they'd actually be worth the time to run again, people would go back to running those pieces of content en masse, which is what merits were designed to prevent in the first place.

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Originally Posted by Bionic_Flea View Post
Ummm . . . Mac, your spreadsheet proves that heroes have a higher merit/minute capability and always have. Sure, it's not a big difference -- 4.44 merits per hour -- but that adds up over time. After running the content you listed five times, the heroes have enough for an extra random roll.

But I'm surprised you didn't include the first respec in your chart. In my opinion, it is very possible to get 1 merit per minute by having the same team run all 3 respecs back to back, earning 43 merits in 45 minutes or so. I think that little grouping is the most efficient merit earning program on either side.

In fact, if you substitute the first respec in for RSF that nets you 59.17 merits per hour or .98 merits per minute.
Yeah, you're probably right about the respec trials there - at the time I put the spreadsheet together I was simply thinking of the content which gave the most merits, and then figured out average times we were running it in. Never really crossed my mind that dropping the RSF and doing a respec instead would end up coming out better, which is odd especially considering almost everyone I know takes the Hami instead of merits on the RSF.

EDIT: Updated the spreadsheet based on Flea's feedback, and unless my math is wrong, that works out to about 1/3 merits more per hour for heroes, which means it would take sixty hours of running content for the heroes to get 20 merits (or one random roll) ahead of the villains. Just remember that the tab the spreadsheet opens to is the original numbers from I13, which aren't correct anymore - the latest merit numbers are on the third tab of the spreadsheet.


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Originally Posted by macskull View Post
2. Most teams post-I13 are still completing them relatively quickly. Even if that weren't the case, and merits were upped to the point where they'd actually be worth the time to run again, people would go back to running those pieces of content en masse, which is what merits were designed to prevent in the first place.

I agree, but not to the same degree as the reward suffers from (whatever the proper term is that you don't get as large a reward). It may be worth the speeders time to run it once a day but (and here I am making assumptions based upon nothing tangible) it would also encourage more non-speed runs as the reward is no longer 'anaemic' as someone posted earlier. It is to be hoped that this would create a slightly better balance between the runs which are completed in a scarily fast time and those which are more sedate.

The speeders would probably still be disproportionally represented, just not AS disproportionally represented. No?


 

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Originally Posted by Frosticus View Post
I can understand why you might have interpreted what I was saying as a request for longer duration SF's, but I actually wasn't. Quite the opposite actually. I want them to slice and dice the super long hero tasks like they are doing with Posi. Many of them need serious revision to bring them up to acceptable content standards. I'd also like to see 3-5 more SF's added in the 25+ game.

For clarification: I'm not saying that formation time should be factored into the dev formula for merit reward, just that end users should be aware of it when calculating things like earned merits/time spent.
Thanks for the clarification. This makes much more sense to me.


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Cosplay Madness!: (#3643) Neutral vs Custom Foes. Heroes at a pop culture convention!

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Originally Posted by Days_ View Post
I agree, but not to the same degree as the reward suffers from (whatever the proper term is that you don't get as large a reward). It may be worth the speeders time to run it once a day but (and here I am making assumptions based upon nothing tangible) it would also encourage more non-speed runs as the reward is no longer 'anaemic' as someone posted earlier. It is to be hoped that this would create a slightly better balance between the runs which are completed in a scarily fast time and those which are more sedate.

The speeders would probably still be disproportionally represented, just not AS disproportionally represented. No?
I'm honestly not sure, as I've only run the KHTF three or four times, the Eden trial maybe two times, and Tarikoss zero times, since I13 dropped. Still, it might be an interesting experiment, and maybe the devs could actually provide such data for us.


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