Market Slowdown?


Dr_Spectre

 

Posted

I started flipping salvage with one character about a month ago, then it became two, now all my blueside characters are in the act. I've got two or three niches which have so far been very reliable, and I recently got greedy and moved up into higher priced/more fluctuating salvage. Starting about this past Thursday though, and continuing through the weekend all my niches have slowed way down, especially my high-end stuff. There was one salvage piece which for about two weeks I could get at about 1 mill and sell for 1.1m, but no one's biting at 1.1 anymore. (Probably small change for members of the Club here, but it's been a reliable earner so far)

But, I've only been doing this a month - is this just a normal slowdown? Across the board or just coincidentally my niches?

(Apologies if this has been covered, I skimmed recent threads but didn't see anything)


Dr. Spectre of the Midnight Avengers
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Golden Ager of the GotGA

 

Posted

Just.. a bit of curiousity.. if you're buying at 1m and reselling at 1.1m that'd mean a loss of 100k per slot, wouldn't it?


 

Posted

haven't noticed a slowdown on any of my schemes.

but in general, niches come and go. When one dries up, move on to the next watering hole.


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by hart View Post
just.. A bit of curiousity.. If you're buying at 1m and reselling at 1.1m that'd mean a loss of 100k per sale, wouldn't it?
10,000 loss per sale

1,100,000 * .9 = 990,000
990,000 - 1,000,000 = -10,000


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hart View Post
Just.. a bit of curiousity.. if you're buying at 1m and reselling at 1.1m that'd mean a loss of 100k per sale, wouldn't it?
I. . .don't think so. I don't have the game in front of me right now to check, but iirc I buy at 1m, then sell at 1.1 (that is, 1,100,000) , the auction house takes a cut of around 50k and I get 50k profit, times a stack of ten, equals a half million profit per stack?


I hope I'm right anyway, seems like it's been making lotsa money so far?


Dr. Spectre of the Midnight Avengers
Taxibot 1
Getaway, of the Rogue Isles Getaway Service
Golden Ager of the GotGA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smurphy View Post
10,000 loss per sale

1,100,000 * .9 = 990,000
990,000 - 1,000,000 = -10,000
Ow. I see. Any profit I've been making on my calcs so far has been pure luck by overbidders. I am, apparently an idiot. Lesson learned, thank you!


Dr. Spectre of the Midnight Avengers
Taxibot 1
Getaway, of the Rogue Isles Getaway Service
Golden Ager of the GotGA

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Spectre View Post
I. . .don't think so. I don't have the game in front of me right now to check, but iirc I buy at 1m, then sell at 1.1 (that is, 1,100,000) , the auction house takes a cut of around 50k and I get 50k profit, times a stack of ten, equals a half million profit per stack?


I hope I'm right anyway, seems like it's been making lotsa money so far?
the AH takes a cut twice. It takes part of the fee when you fist post the item for auction to help prevent people from posting multiple times to get the best price. Its non-refundable if you pull the item down and repost it for a higher or lower price. Then upon sale it takes the balance of the fee based on whatever you sold it for as afinal price.

So im pretty sure at least some of the time your losing money. However you might pull off an extra sale here and there, where someone bid more then 1.1 million and you make money off it. Or other auctions are helping the cost of the ones your losing money on. So in gross your profiting but some sales are costing you money.


 

Posted

I'm terrible with numbers, so to prevent mishaps I try not to play around with anything I can't sell for a LOT more than I paid for it.

If I have to stop and think about whether something is worth my while, I walk away and look for another position to take.


The Nethergoat Archive: all my memories, all my characters, all my thoughts on CoH...eventually.

My City Was Gone

 

Posted

Possible slowdown causes:
1. End of summer results in some returning to school
2. Champions Online just launched and some may be checking that out
3. I16 is in open beta so some may be hanging out there


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Spectre View Post
I started flipping salvage with one character about a month ago, then it became two, now all my blueside characters are in the act. I've got two or three niches which have so far been very reliable, and I recently got greedy and moved up into higher priced/more fluctuating salvage. Starting about this past Thursday though, and continuing through the weekend all my niches have slowed way down, especially my high-end stuff. There was one salvage piece which for about two weeks I could get at about 1 mill and sell for 1.1m, but no one's biting at 1.1 anymore. (Probably small change for members of the Club here, but it's been a reliable earner so far)

But, I've only been doing this a month - is this just a normal slowdown? Across the board or just coincidentally my niches?

(Apologies if this has been covered, I skimmed recent threads but didn't see anything)
Like you, I've only recently been learning and earning my way in the market. I started out not by vendoring or flipping, but by crafting generic IO's with field crafter badges and more recently crafting mid/upper tier set IO's. Which I do now depends more on the level and capital resources the character has.

I rolled two new characters a week ago Thursday, and through pure recipe flipping, they're now both at about 30m inf each, a tidy sum for 14th level characters already frankenslotted with level 16/17 doublet/triplet IO's. At least at this level, the market hasn't slowed down.

Where I've seen more slowdown since double experience weekend and the return of school days is more on the mid/upper tier set IO's. I'm still earning a very good margin in several of these niches, but the turnover in some niches is slower than it was. One of my characters moved to another niche that had a higher turnover although it had a slightly smaller margin (still resulting in more profit over time with the higher rack turnover).

I think it's fair to say the market is in a constant state of fluctuation with its own daily/weekly/seasonal cycles (which I am just grasping, at least at the daily and weekly level). I just diversity a bit and adjust to it, leaving enough room for error so that if it does shift at least I can safely exit a position and enter into a new one without being overcommitted.


 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwellGuy View Post
Possible slowdown causes:
1. End of summer results in some returning to school
2. Champions Online just launched and some may be checking that out
3. I16 is in open beta so some may be hanging out there

Aion beta as well.


I've been rich, and I've been poor. Rich is definitely better.
Light is faster than sound - that's why some people look smart until they speak.
For every seller who leaves the market dirty stinkin' rich,
there's a buyer who leaves the market dirty stinkin' IOed. - Obitus.

 

Posted

We need I16 to launch to get those people back in here.


total kick to the gut

This is like having Ra's Al Ghul show up at your birthday party.

 

Posted

I've been playing less waiting on I16. Getting my game on in other venues, so that when it does come I can play longer without getting burnt out as fast. So yes, I'm causing a market slowdown. Sorry.


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Posted

When a new issue comes out, I usually have one of two reactions.

  1. I am excited by the issue's prospects, and playing up until its release seems kind of hollow knowing what's coming. This tends to depress my time played until the new issue launches.
  2. I am depressed by the new issue's prospects, usually because of some change that negatively impacts a character I like a lot. This tends to depress my play time until some time after a new issue launches.
Sometimes an issue has enough of both (1) and (2) that I end up neutral on the issue, but I still end up playing less until it lands.

I can think of only once or twice that I was so ambivalent about an issue that my play styles didn't change.

So yes, I think that "new issue-itis" probably has a real but indirect market effect. It's not that a lot of people market less, but rather that they play less in general, reducing the number of people left poking the market. I don't necessarily think it's always big enough to notice, but it often seems to be.

All the other factors people have mentioned seem likely, too.


Blue
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Red
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Posted

Generally a good idea is to list things 1.12x or 1.13x what you pay for it to make profit, but that might be short changing yourself on some items that have high variation in price.

Like lets say you get IO recipe X for 800k, it takes 900k for 1 rare, 400k at buy it nao for some other salvage and 500k to craft thus your cost is 3.2 million. You could conceivably list it for ( 3.2 x 1.12) 3584000 and make profit. The IO may normally sell at 5-7 million however and you'd be short changing yourself if you listed it that low and got a smaller sale.

Salvage seems to be ranging from 700k-1.3m currently so there is minor room for profit on some of them, but the problem is what to list sales at such that you aren't undercut too easily.


I am an ebil markeeter and will steal your moneiz ...correction stole your moneiz. I support keeping the poor down because it is impossible to make moneiz in this game.

 

Posted

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuiJon View Post
the AH takes a cut twice.
To be more specific, the listing fee is 5% of the price you post at, paid when you post. When your sale is final, you pay a fee of 10% of the sale price minus the original listing fee, paid when you collect your inf from the market.


 

Posted

To be sure you never lose money when flipping set an offer price at least 1.12 times what you paid.

Here's my tortured algebra as proof.

You need to ensure:

proceeds >= investment

Investment is simply what you paid. Proceeds is equal to 90% of your sale price.

90%*price >= investment

So you need:

price >= investment/90%.

or

price >= 1.11(repeating) * investment.

So I round up to 1.12 for that wonderful extra .888888888888889005% profit.


 

Posted

I've found that my usual flipping of rare salvage has been cut since Dbl xp. The margins just aren't what they used to be. On the good side, it forced me to look through some low cost recipes, crafting and then making a killing on quite a few - 6-8X profit after crafting costs. There are some where I seem to be the only one crafting as for the last week, my enhancements are the only ones listed. Downside is that almost all my slots are constantly full as the turnaround is not as quick.
Hopefully today's downtime means that i16 is dropping as I write this. After everyone spends a few hours tweaking their power set colors they will be out there testing how their purple heals look and then drop some inf.